Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

[metwannabe]

U mean colder ! i think we worrieing too much the pattern is going more an more east now we will be fine !

Yeah the trougj does not get dumped in the west and the pacific ridge is better

[burgertime]

Yep right on cue Euro looks good out to 200 hours. 

[Cold Rain]

This does NOT look warm (inside of 10 days too):

 

[metwannabe]

Great blocking on the 12z EURO

[Jon]

Great blocking on the 12z EURO

Yep that's what I was trying to say, it's all about the mean baby. Cliff jumpers, step away.

 

Hour 216, I'll take it.

 

[packbacker]

Now stays, ok...but it's going to come east especially if we get a -AO or -NAO later. Jesus even he's jumping, I didn't think it would get this bad once the Euro got in range but I guess I was wrong

 

 

The D10 Euro, even if it verified perfectly, doesn't look like a stable pattern, which is what you were pointing out.  I just wanted to reiterate that.  We may have some fluctuations on the way down.  The Euro could also be exercising it's bias of holding energy back in the SW.  I don't know.  But I do think everyone will feel better when the Euro finally starts consistently showing ridging west/troughing east well inside of D10.  If we're still fluctuating after the first week of January (if we don't have good clarity around a near-term cool-down), then I think questioning the outcome of the month of January will be legitimate, at that point.

 

 

DT must be hugging the EPS because the GEFS looks great to me unless I am missing.  Although, I just read the twitter exchange, sounds like he is hugging Al's GWO analogs which predicts a cold central US.  With that analog we would Apps runner after Apps runner.  Will see...

[franklin NCwx]

No surprise big changes in the 7-10 on the euro. It will change again in 12 hours too.

[Jon]

DT must be hugging the EPS because the GEFS looks great to me unless I am missing.  Although, I just read the twitter exchange, sounds like he is hugging Al's GWO analogs which predicts a cold central US.  With that analog we would Apps runner after Apps runner.  Will see...

I agree the GFS is fine which is when in my earlier post when I compared OP Euro/ Euro ENS of the 00z I said forget the GFS for now. It was the gripe over the 00z Euro that I think made people doubt the cold, forgetting we have other guidence and OPs can flip flop during this time.

[franklin NCwx]

I think I'm gonna be wrong. In years with a stronger southern jet the gfs does terrible while the euro excels. So far the gfs and it's ensembles have been doing better than the euro.

#Surprised!

[Wow]

This is a nice setup. Trough east of HI, too, which will correspond with a ridge over the SW.

 

[RONALD B]

I lov the trend of today's run it's going east now . now we wait an see if the trend stops or does it go even more east on the ensembels later? i vote it' shows a little more east  maybe even the  midwest? .we will see in a bit ?

[deltadog03]

This is a nice setup. Trough east of HI, too.

 

yes sir!!

Thats a LOADED weather map.  I would take that for a million bux  ok, not really...but the map looks really good.  The Christmas storm looks like its gonna go BOOM!, but the energy is further east so it doesn't dig as far.  I am ok with that.  The maps still look pretty good to me in the long range, especially on the ENS.  I love that look.  That is trouble waiting.....

[packbacker]

I think I'm gonna be wrong. In years with a stronger southern jet the gfs does terrible while the euro excels. So far the gfs and it's ensembles have been doing better than the euro.

#Surprised!

 

True, for storms inside day 5-7, but JB had the NH stats out the other day showing the GEFS has been really good as of late.

[deltadog03]

I would love to sign up of that.  It does suck to see the back and forth and back forth on the op runs, but it is what it is.  No biggie.  The pattern will switch and will get much better.  I really hang my hat on the fact that DEC usually SUCK in nino's 

[ILMRoss]

Just curious, how did the Christmas storm look on the Euro? I know previous runs had it bombing out in the Great Lakes. Could there be a Christmas Eve severe threat for us?

[Bevo]

I think I'm gonna be wrong. In years with a stronger southern jet the gfs does terrible while the euro excels. So far the gfs and it's ensembles have been doing better than the euro.

#Surprised!

 

I may be rowing that boat with you. 10/10 times I'll go with the Euro in a split flow.

 

Something's just fishy.

[superjames1992]

Monday's rainstorm coastal looks rockin' on the Euro.  While our Saturday storm continues to dwindle to a few clouds, it has continued to strengthen.  We rock at rainstorms!

 

The Euro looks close to some wraparound show showers on Christmas Eve, too (but no cigar, verbatim, though).

[superjames1992]

Just curious, how did the Christmas storm look on the Euro? I know previous runs had it bombing out in the Great Lakes. Could there be a Christmas Eve severe threat for us?

 

I'm not a severe expert by any means and I don't have access to a lot of the severe parameters, but the western half of NC tops out in the upper 40s while the eastern half is in the 50s.  850s are +4C I-85/west and +10ish in E NC.  Then again, we suck at severe weather out in these parts, so no surprise.  There's a 993 mb LP just north of PGV on Christmas eve morning.  The timing doesn't look especially good for thunderstorms, either, with it mostly occurring overnight.

 

Christmas Eve looks like highs in the upper 40s in the west and low 50s in the east with lows Christmas morning in the mid 30s in the west and near 40 in the east.

[burgertime]

Euro EPS gets cold around hour 276 for the south. Not bonkers cold but a better look and looks to get better past 300.

[RONALD B]

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=817999804926353&set=p.817999804926353&type=1 BINGOhttps://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=818000918259575&set=p.818000918259575&type=1

[packbacker]

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=817999804926353&set=p.817999804926353&type=1 BINGO

 

Just posted in the banter...Hello +PNA on EPS, caving like a cheap suit to the GEFS.

[burgertime]

Just posted in the banter...Hello +PNA on EPS, caving like a cheap suit to the GEFS.

 

Wow ENS looks fantastic....of course it is at hour 312 but yea seems to be the GEFS is leading the way. 

[franklin NCwx]

Just posted in the banter...Hello +PNA on EPS, caving like a cheap suit to the GEFS.

all hail the gfs/gefs this year.

[packbacker]

all hail the gfs/gefs this year.

 

Look at the change and the move to the GEFS...changes start occurring 

 

0z from last night on top v/s 12z today

[franklin NCwx]

Yeah and the 0z run was a huge change from 12z yesterday. DT must be losing his mind trying to follow the euro.

[ILMRoss]

I'm not a severe expert by any means and I don't have access to a lot of the severe parameters, but the western half of NC tops out in the upper 40s while the eastern half is in the 50s. 850s are +4C I-85/west and +10ish in E NC. Then again, we suck at severe weather out in these parts, so no surprise. There's a 993 mb LP just north of PGV on Christmas eve morning. The timing doesn't look especially good for thunderstorms, either, with it mostly occurring overnight.

Christmas Eve looks like highs in the upper 40s in the west and low 50s in the east with lows Christmas morning in the mid 30s in the west and near 40 in the east.

Thanks! I know earlier it was showing a pretty sinister apps runner that bottomed out around 960 in the Great Lakes, and that sort of set up could lead to severe. If there's a lp around Pgv, that in itself probably means no severe.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[KChuck]

You both are correct It's a weather board, and that's what we do.......talk about the weather. The good, the bad, and the ugly

Now.......back to your regular scheduled program

+1

[Brick Tamland]

Good trends today. Now if we can just get the look inside 7 days.

[superjames1992]

Thanks! I know earlier it was showing a pretty sinister apps runner that bottomed out around 960 in the Great Lakes, and that sort of set up could lead to severe. If there's a lp around Pgv, that in itself probably means no severe.

Sent from my iPhone

 

There's actually three different LP centers at hr 144.  There's a 991 mb LP over northern Lake Michigan.  There's also a 998 mb LP over western New York.  Finally, there's the aforementioned LP north of PGV.  It rides up the cold front and completely bombs out on Christmas Day over Quebec.  It gets as low as 965 mb on Christmas morning, but by then the cold front is well off the coast, so it won't have any effects on us aside from drawing in gusty winds and cold.  I would expect it to be a pretty killer setup for NWFS in the mountains.

[packbacker]

Good trends today. Now if we can just get the look inside 7 days.

 

Hopefully by mid next week we will get inside 7 days.