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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

LithiaWx

By LithiaWx,
in Southeastern States

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Jon

Jon

Posted
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Welp JMA monthly means came out this morning and they look good through day 10 at least! Note the Bastardi ridige in week 2. Check out the 500mb heights though, looking at my post from yesterday...two localized heights away from canada then it transfers to N Canada by week 2...also, look at week 2...we have a -NAO and a +PNA, that tough can be misplaced which leads to that wimpy SE ridge....still looks like a party possibly for week 2 even verbatim looking at these maps.

 

Also, please don't jump because of JMA output....it could be having issues like the rest of them with this volatile period. Also, it's the JMA.

 

RVQ9tyv.png

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

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If this is banter I apologize.  One good storm and all can be forgiven on the fail December.  Even if this winter is ho hum all year and we get the one big one all will be forgotten and forgiven.  It sure seems expectations have been tempered recently, probably a good thing for sanity.  As I tell my two year old, patience means to wait.

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Shawn

Shawn

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If this is banter I apologize.  One good storm and all can be forgiven on the fail December.  Even if this winter is ho hum all year and we get the one big one all will be forgotten and forgiven.  It sure seems expectations have been tempered recently, probably a good thing for sanity.  As I tell my two year old, patience means to wait.

 

I'd say that generally 75% still believe in the pattern flip.  These models are struggling for this upcoming week.  The ensembles have been moved back and forth a bit.. which is to be expected with some of the wild solutions the OP runs have shown.

 

I think we are still on track, but expect a lot of problems in the weather community/people's sanity levels if the pattern doesn't flip the last couple days of the year.

 

Either way, there does come a point when we have to throw some of these model solutions out and use our common sense with analogs and the like... which I think Webber was trying to get across in the past.

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deltadog03

deltadog03

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I would say, throw a dart...LMAO might have better idea of the pattern vs what the models are spitting out.  We really need that Christmas storm to bomb out.  I wish it was going to rotate further SE, ala yesterdays 12z runs...don't know if that is going to happen now.  LONG time to wait, but its a bit frustrating to see this crap go back and forth.  

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

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There's a real chance if we lose the super bomb which COULD hurt the nao, we'll be headed into a -PNA and +NAO period. That could mean SE Ridge.

It's possible  ;)   but it's just as possible(at this time) for it not to happen too.  Will the atlantic ever cooperate? Will the pacific become a raging hose? One thing is for sure.......the models won't get a handle on anything in the lr with all this energy floating around. Patience is the key to answering the questions I just posted.  

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

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I would say, throw a dart...LMAO might have better idea of the pattern vs what the models are spitting out.  We really need that Christmas storm to bomb out.  I wish it was going to rotate further SE, ala yesterdays 12z runs...don't know if that is going to happen now.  LONG time to wait, but its a bit frustrating to see this crap go back and forth.  

 

 

Why is everyone in panic mode, it's just weather?  Concerned b/c the goalposts seem to be moving a little?  The end of December for meaningful changes has been the target for about 2 weeks now.  The good +PNA and -EPO looks have been there and getting closer, regardless of what happens in the NAO region.  

 

As you said earlier, it's not as important early in the year anyway.  While I don't think I completely agree with that assessment, as I'd rather have it on my side in ALL situations than not, but as long as it's not raging positive, we can be ok with the looks being giving in the Pacific on the ensembles.

 

If we are in early January and the pattern still hasn't shifted, or the SSW hasn't occurred, there is a SE ridge, etc.........then let the cliff jumping begin.  

 

I just think if you are jumping on any of the OP's during a pattern change, you will always feel like you are about to lose your mind. They can't hit it from 5 days much less 5+.

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Jon

Jon

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I just think if you are jumping on any of the OP's during a pattern change, you will always feel like you are about to lose your mind. They can't hit it from 5 days much less 5+.

 

Bingo...BTW nice post CR.

 

All I'm doing is talking about the 10 day Euro here, forget the LR GFS right now. As CR said, the Euro is in range so expect to see wild solutions AKA SE ridge that will absolutely freak everyone and their mother out...

Let me tell you how I see it..

 

EURO day 6-10 OP

lT0pM5W.png

 

 

EURO ensemble at 6-10 day mean

xqnZXAs.png

 

 

They're obviously different.

 

 

Euro OP day 10

gtZWEQx.png

 

Even if the 00z Euro output scares you with the ridge, look at wind streamlines. It's not staying and the cold air is coming.

ISX7uAD.png

 

Euro ENS day 10 look at the shape of the negative anomaly...it's coming east, not bottled up in NW US or whatever the OP is doing.

JlLH1dd.png

 

In conclusion, thanks Euro for getting in range and causing cliff diving. Many more to come!

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
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I choose to run with Don S. (form the main forum a few minutes ago)

 

"Some ensemble members are pointing to a PNA-. I suspect that the worst of the cold outbreak will likely start in the central CONUS and then expand eastward. If some of the more extreme AO forecasts verify, a long-lasting cold period could evolve for the eastern third-to-half of the CONUS, with a few short periods of milder weather."

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deltadog03

deltadog03

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I agree fully!  The op runs are going to have wild swings..but yea, you still have to pay attention to them. Hell, the euro op led the way for its own ENS.  Im saying its not easy trying to forecast this and put it on tv.  But its all good, its what I signed up to do.  will people freak out either way?  well oh hell ya.  people need things done now and have no patience.  I am like that at times, I can admit it.  It does make me nervous a little bit that things are going back and forth.  However, I know that the indices being forecasted are pretty good. the NAO, AO, EPO are all heading into the tank according to the para GFS.  the PNA remains neutral to slightly NEG.  Do I buy it?  IDK

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

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Why is everyone in panic mode, it's just weather?  Concerned b/c the goalposts seem to be moving a little?  The end of December for meaningful changes has been the target for about 2 weeks now.  The good +PNA and -EPO looks have been there and getting closer, regardless of what happens in the NAO region.  

 

As you said earlier, it's not as important early in the year anyway.  While I don't think I completely agree with that assessment, as I'd rather have it on my side in ALL situations than not, but as long as it's not raging positive, we can be ok with the looks being giving in the Pacific on the ensembles.

 

If we are in early January and the pattern still hasn't shifted, or the SSW hasn't occurred, there is a SE ridge, etc.........then let the cliff jumping begin.  

 

I just think if you are jumping on any of the OP's during a pattern change, you will always feel like you are about to lose your mind. They can't hit it from 5 days much less 5+.

Yep... we go through this EVERY winter, it never changes. The Op's are the most available so it's what everyone looks at. But when they flip like a fish out of water with each run.... well... let that be a sign unto you! :-) Ensembles are your best friend right now. 

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Jon

Jon

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DTVaWeatherman ‏@DTVaWeatherman 1h1 hour ago

I am beginning to have doubts.... when does the cold air REALLY get into the east and stays ?

 

 

When DT is having doubt it's got to be ugly looking in the long range.

Now stays, ok...but it's going to come east especially if we get a -AO or -NAO later. Jesus even he's jumping, I didn't think it would get this bad once the Euro got in range but I guess I was wrong

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

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Now stays, ok...but it's going to come east especially if we get a -AO or -NAO later. Jesus even he's jumping, I didn't think it would get this bad once the Euro got in range but I guess I was wrong

 

The D10 Euro, even if it verified perfectly, doesn't look like a stable pattern, which is what you were pointing out.  I just wanted to reiterate that.  We may have some fluctuations on the way down.  The Euro could also be exercising it's bias of holding energy back in the SW.  I don't know.  But I do think everyone will feel better when the Euro finally starts consistently showing ridging west/troughing east well inside of D10.  If we're still fluctuating after the first week of January (if we don't have good clarity around a near-term cool-down), then I think questioning the outcome of the month of January will be legitimate, at that point.

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deltadog03

deltadog03

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  The Ensemble means will be the best way to go, as you said.  The constant back and forth with the OP runs is kinda of funny.  Its amazing how we go from a big storm on next tue/wed to almost nothing down here in the SE. The ENS means on both the EURO And GFS are further south with that though.  So, that might be a good sign.  I am still very optimistic about the long range.  

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

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Now stays, ok...but it's going to come east especially if we get a -AO or -NAO later. Jesus even he's jumping, I didn't think it would get this bad once the Euro got in range but I guess I was wrong

That's my point.  For him to question that means one of two things........

 

1.  he flops like a fish out of the sea and lacks stability in his thinking

 

2.  he wants to be "first" to say he caught something.

 

On topic, when the ensembles start to more consistently show a poor pattern I too will jump ship.  Until then, no reason to change my thinking.  It's only mid December.

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burgertime

burgertime

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DTVaWeatherman ‏@DTVaWeatherman 1h1 hour ago

I am beginning to have doubts.... when does the cold air REALLY get into the east and stays ?

 

 

When DT is having doubt it's got to be ugly looking in the long range.

 

The same guy who said it wouldn't be cold in December, then immediately switched up and said it would be cold. Then switched back? The same guy who swore the GFS was dead wrong about this storm and there was NO way it would be southern slider? I like DT but the guy does more flips then Mary Lou Retton.

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

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The same guy who said it wouldn't be cold in December, then immediately switched up and said it would be cold. Then switched back? The same guy who swore the GFS was dead wrong about this storm and there was NO way it would be southern slider? I like DT but the guy does more flips then Mary Lou Retton.

Yes he flips the most of any Met out there, But he bashes JB the most of anybody out there for same reason? lol

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Bevo

Bevo

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That's my point.  For him to question that means one of two things........

 

1.  he flops like a fish out of the sea and lacks stability in his thinking

 

2.  he wants to be "first" to say he caught something.

 

On topic, when the ensembles start to more consistently show a poor pattern I too will jump ship.  Until then, no reason to change my thinking.  It's only mid December.

 

Neither of which are actually "good" characteristics...

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