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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

LithiaWx

By LithiaWx,
in Southeastern States

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

The MJO has been showing how this month would turn out for some time now.

It dived into the circle which you do not want to occur for solid winter weather in North Carolina

At least we have not torched

Based on the current MJO, it could take a while as usually 8, 1 and 2 are in our favor

cn215nX.jpg

That's about par for the course. The MJO spends most of the winter months in phases 3-6

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
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That's about par for the course. The MJO spends most of the winter months in phases 3-6

Mike Ventrice posted some great info yesterday about this MJO and the pattern change in the NE forum yesterday. I think someone posted the link to it in here yesterday also. Was a great read and I would not worry about the MJO currently.

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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
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I think I read one of the other forcings is rendering the MJO useless. it's a non-factor in the pattern.

Good point. I should have mentioned that. As usual we can't rely on one index 100% and the real work comes in the blending of th indices.

Still I am happy when the MJO forcing is in our side. Let's hope for the best over the next several weeks as we sure don't want to be in a similar wait this time next month.

 

 

Added:  Blending the ECMWF and the GFS, it appears through the end of the year, the focus of the true cold will be in the Midwest.

 

Longer Range:  Gotta go with the teleconnections and the macro pattern and hope for the best !

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

The MJO has been showing how this month would turn out for some time now.

It dived into the circle which you do not want to occur for solid winter weather in North Carolina

At least we have not torched

Based on the current MJO, it could take a while as usually 8, 1 and 2 are in our favorcn215nX.jpg

 

H2iFTdJ.png

Remember what Webber posted about the SSWE and phases 4-5-6. Looks good to me.

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Batman

Batman

Posted
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No discussion of the 00z Euro, so I assume everyone is on board with a SE ridge post-Christmas. "Pattern change" lol. Well, it is a pattern change, just to an even worse pattern.

Possibly not mentioned because it is an extreme outlier from a growing consensus of indicators that call for anything but a SE ridge after Christmas. Holding energy back in the SW is a bias of the EC. If the pattern is highly amplified, it would stand to reason that if the EC holds energy back it would promote the chance of a SE ridge to appear. Certainly a possibility, but not considered a likely outcome by most, which is probably why little was mentioned of it.
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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

Posted
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It would be if it showed a snowstorm or a great pattern and we all know it.

 

Hopefully we learned the folly of chasing a day 10 single EURO run with the storm thread that currently exists. 

 

I think a potential SE ridge is simply a question of where the west coast ridge sets up.  If it's off the west coast and we get a -PNA then yes we'll probably get a SE ridge in response (to a trough in the west).  If we get our east coast trough as everything seems to be trending to on the ensembles, then probably not an issue.  That's where we currently are as far as I can see. 

 

I've always said as long as we see a nice pattern within day 10 of Dec 20 then I'm good.  I think that estimate is right on time.  My only downer so far is yesterday the -NAO disappeared in the long term.  That will bum me out if it happens.  Haven't seen the latest on that this morning...

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

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no it would not. It's a 10 day op run its very low skill.

 

I'll save this to my spank bank for when you decide to discuss a 10 day OP snowstorm depiction.  You know darn well folks would talk about a 10 day OP especially a Euro 10 day OP run if it showed something big.  It's the nature of the beast.

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
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I'll save this to my spank bank for when you decide to discuss a 10 day OP snowstorm depiction. You know darn well folks would talk about a 10 day OP especially a Euro 10 day OP run if it showed something big. It's the nature of the beast.

and it's pointless. Just like people getting excited over a 7days snowstorm.
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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

Posted
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I'll save this to my spank bank for when you decide to discuss a 10 day OP snowstorm depiction.  You know darn well folks would talk about a 10 day OP especially a Euro 10 day OP run if it showed something big.  It's the nature of the beast.

 

 

and it's pointless. Just like people getting excited over a 7days snowstorm.

You both are correct   :P   It's a weather board, and that's what we do.......talk about the weather. The good, the bad, and the ugly   ;)

 

 

Now.......back to your regular scheduled program  

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Just so we know what we're all talking about...the pattern change is now well within 10 days:

 

Here's the 0z GEFS at 150, 240 and 384 (all look good):

 

post-987-0-95182400-1418919652_thumb.png

 

post-987-0-09504000-1418919683_thumb.png

 

post-987-0-81441100-1418919696_thumb.png

 

Now, here's the 0z GEFS at 150, 240, and 384 (all look good):

 

post-987-0-72523000-1418919723_thumb.png

 

post-987-0-05967700-1418919735_thumb.png

 

post-987-0-64863000-1418919743_thumb.png

 

Lastly, here's the 0z EPS at 168 and 240 (don't have access to anything beyond that).  168 looks good, but 240 nassomuch:

 

post-987-0-85722300-1418919802_thumb.png

 

post-987-0-73036000-1418919815_thumb.png

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