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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

LithiaWx

By LithiaWx,
in Southeastern States

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MichaelJ

MichaelJ

Posted
Posted

One week from tommorrow we will all be enjoying the greatest day of the year while running possible 5 or more degrees below normal with a stiff wind. And best of all we will be talking about potential events instead of pattern changes 10 plus days out. Only 7 days till the flip will officially no longer be a fantasy but reality. In fact apart from our sensible weather in our backyards, you could argue even though in its infant stages the flip is just beginning 1000s of miles away.

Ahh, I see NCSNOW has taken a recent trip to Colorado  :D . Seriously though, the EURO weeklies will be able to hone in on any potential pattern change (and how long it lasts) by tomorrow and I eagerly anticipate finding out what they show.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Ahh, I see NCSNOW has taken a recent trip to Colorado :D . Seriously though, the EURO weeklies will be able to hone in on any potential pattern change (and how long it lasts) by tomorrow and I eagerly anticipate finding out what they show.

Lol the Weeklies have shown everything from garbage to greatness over the last 4 runs. If they come in strong tomorrow night, we'll ride em into the sunset. If they suck, we'll drop em like they're hot. That's how we roll!

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

Michael let's hope it doesn't appear that way. Really banking on the Christmas storm to bring the main dish to the table after it passes next week. Getting some good model support but not 100% yet. Well see, I have alot of confidence that everything is unfolding about as expected so far with all the TCS, analogs we been jabbering about all fall. It's shutup or put up time as we roll through the holidays. 2 weeks down and only 10 left in met winter. The seeds have been sown now well see what type of fruit there gonna bare.

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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
Posted

https://twitter.com/LarryCosgrove/status/545369442759090177/photo/1 this will make poster's from nc too maine happy if this verify's ?

If that's a question, the answer would seem to be yes.

 

LC has been pretty robust in his recent thoughts.

 

Now - we only have to bring a little joy down this away ... :mapsnow:

 

(it can happen - sometimes or other)

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WidreMann

WidreMann

Posted
Posted

GFS after day 10 reminds me a lot of the pattern in 09/10. Lots of fun to come for the area if that holds. Combo of blocking over northern lattitudes/el-nino is usually a can't miss prospect.

The day 10 GFS always looks good. We don't need a good looking day 10 GFS, we need a good looking day 3 GFS.
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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

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The day 10 GFS always looks good. We don't need a good looking day 10 GFS, we need a good looking day 3 GFS.

Exactly, we have had a good pattern showing up in the ten day range for about three weeks now.

But a good blocking pattern hasn't been around for years, I do think it's coming but it may be more than ten days. Models struggle in pattern change regimes, the delay is nothing new to folks who have followed models for years.

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
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Exactly, we have had a good pattern showing up in the ten day range for about three weeks now.

But a good blocking pattern hasn't been around for years, I do think it's coming but it may be more than ten days. Models struggle in pattern change regimes, the delay is nothing new to folks who have followed models for years.

Three weeks? Just two weeks ago it was showing a torch and everyone was critiquing people on here for saying the models were wrong... Which brings up a whole other issue... But the models just came around really last week.
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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

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Three weeks? Just two weeks ago it was showing a torch and everyone was critiquing people on here for saying the models were wrong... Which brings up a whole other issue... But the models just came around really last week.

Three weeks could be wrong, but it seems like #patternchange has been going on for a long long time.

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HKY_WX

HKY_WX

Posted
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Not really, anyone with any credence has been saying a pattern change is likely the last week or so of December and then into january/february. The models haven't looked interesting at all in the LR until the last few days. They will continue to catch on and come around.

 

Exactly, we have had a good pattern showing up in the ten day range for about three weeks now.

But a good blocking pattern hasn't been around for years, I do think it's coming but it may be more than ten days. Models struggle in pattern change regimes, the delay is nothing new to folks who have followed models for years.

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Why is anyone even looking for snow the next ten days. We don't have a chance in hell until the pattern change. Marginal marginal air right. I'm much more focused on the pattern change

 

 

Was going to argue with but not sure your wrong. Might take till mid-Jan to get to a great pattern for us. "Good/OK" pattern might come end of Dec to early Jan.

 

 

Three weeks could be wrong, but it seems like #patternchange has been going on for a long long time.

 

Above is what was said just 11 days ago....not even two weeks. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
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The stout -epo ridge is becoming a lock and its inside of 10 days. Plenty of cold will be dumping into the conus soon and anomalous ridges like that are slow to break down.

Blocking is always a wildcard and the nao region is often difficult to predict at longer leads. The Xmas bomb is going to have a sizeable affect on the longwave pattern and could drive strong ridging into the Davis strait region. If it does then the question is how stable. Hard to say. Could go any direction but the epo ridge (especially in late Dec and beyond) will likely solve temp problems. I doubt a se ridge will screw that up. Even if we get a se ridge like the euro/para is advertising imo it would be transient.

I'm not buying into any specific solution until next weeks strong storm and what happens after is resolved. One thing seems fairly certain. We're quickly moving towards a pattern that is a heck of a lot better than the first 25 days of this month

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RONALD B

RONALD B

Posted
Posted

The stout -epo ridge is becoming a lock and its inside of 10 days. Plenty of cold will be dumping into the conus soon and anomalous ridges like that are slow to break down.

Blocking is always a wildcard and the nao region is often difficult to predict at longer leads. The Xmas bomb is going to have a sizeable affect on the longwave pattern and could drive strong ridging into the Davis strait region. If it does then the question is how stable. Hard to say. Could go any direction but the epo ridge (especially in late Dec and beyond) will likely solve temp problems. I doubt a se ridge will screw that up. Even if we get a se ridge like the euro/para is advertising imo it would be transient.

I'm not buying into any specific solution until next weeks strong storm and what happens after is resolved. One thing seems fairly certain. We're quickly moving towards a pattern that is a heck of a lot better than the first 25 days of this month

great post chill an a nother wild card in the mix is the artic warming this could finally spilt the pv? cross your fingers models are saying at least a 2 weeks of  warming big X factor ?https://twitter.com/WSI_Energy/status/545195876067844099/photo/1

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Jon

Jon

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Three weeks could be wrong, but it seems like #patternchange has been going on for a long long time.

Not really, anyone with any credence has been saying a pattern change is likely the last week or so of December and then into january/february. The models haven't looked interesting at all in the LR until the last few days. They will continue to catch on and come around.

Yeah, I first mentioned a pattern change with like little to no model support, if you (Marietta) wanna go back in my posts it's the one I drew MS Paint all over a Canadian ensemble map 300 something hours out centered around 12/20. Basically it was sniffing this storm out or at least, the pattern to produce this weekend's "close call"....thats's pretty much the only model that was showing a decent hint towards a decent pattern...GFS was a torch.

 

On Dec 5th I said "Yeah, I'm hoping the new weeklies show an earlier change instead of around the end of the month. It wouldn't surprise me to get this earlier, after the 20th, maybe the 22nd-25thish area. Just waiting twiddling my thumbs on new output and means to look at. Can't wait for the weeklies, haha. The block over the top on Jan 1st on the weeklies is just nasty."

 

So it looks like we were talking pattern change when the weeklies on 12/4 showed something crazy in the LR, so two weeks. Before we were just posting CFS maps of January because we had no other LR models showing anything. It really hasn't been that long and it hasn't been one of those things where we would say it would come then it didn't, we just literally have not gotten to the time yet of said pattern change.

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wncsnow

wncsnow

Posted
Posted

Looking at the long range GEFS and EURO there appears to be some agreement that there will be a little bit of ridging near Florida keeping the coldest air in the northern plains, with another trough on the West Coast... This setup is quite similar to December 2009 and I would not be surprised to see another storm similar to that this winter season looking at the way the pattern may set up

 

December 18 2009.

500_091218_00.gif
 
Compared to hour 240 of the 00Z GFS...

gfs_namer_240_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

6z GFS should make people a little bit happier than the 0z runs. First it shows some possible snow showers for many on Chritmas day:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_159_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=159&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141218+06+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=83

 

Then a possible winter event at day 12:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_288_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=288&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141218+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=68

 

Past day 12 it does show some cold air on our side of the hemisphere but it stays locked to the north. We would just need some kind of mechanism(storm) to pull it down:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=384&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141218+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=84

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

6z GFS should make people a little bit happier than the 0z runs. First it shows some possible snow showers for many on Chritmas day:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_159_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=159&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141218+06+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=83

 

Then a possible winter event at day 12:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_288_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=288&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141218+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=68

 

Past day 12 it does show some cold air on our side of the hemisphere but it stays locked to the north. We would just need some kind of mechanism(storm) to pull it down:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=384&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141218+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=84

 

 

 

What I like most are the 850 anomalies on all of the ENS models yesterday. Euro, GFS and CMC all show cold centered in the east. 6z GFS ENS is downright tasty. 

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