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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

LithiaWx

By LithiaWx,
in Southeastern States

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
Posted

Didn't he get a foot this past February? :snowing:

I've still never seen a foot. :( We did have a foot of snowcover after January 2000, but that was from the prior storm a few days before (from as best as I can speculate, we ended up with a inch or two less than a foot from the storm itself). Maybe it will happen someday, but I don't think GSO has seen a foot in many decades, so maybe not... Of course, I doubt I'll live here forever, so maybe there's hope.

you have never had a foot of snow? Wow I figured you have had a few.
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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

you have never had a foot of snow? Wow I figured you have had a few.

 

I've came close a few times, but no.  January 1996 was close.  January 2000 was close.  January 2002 was close.  February 2014 looked like a potential one, but we sleeted too much and ended with 8".  February 2004 might have done it here (this area was the dividing line between the 12"+ madness and 6" further north in the county), but I lived in West Virginia at the time (never got a foot during my few winters there, either).

 

We seem to be pretty good at 6-8" storms, though.  We've had quite a few in recent years.

 

Granted, I'm not that old (22 1/2), but as best as I can tell, there hasn't been a foot of snow to fall here since at least the 1980s and probably before that.  I recall seeing the list of the greatest snowstorms on record here and I think there were only a couple greater than 12" (1930 at 20" being the greatest, IIRC).  I only live a couple miles from the airport (GSO).

 

EDIT: According to NWS RAH, the greatest snowfall days on record are March 3, 1927 (20"), December 17th, 1930 (14.3"), and March 9, 1960 (11.1").  Of course, most storms don't fit within a calendar day, so there's likely been greater storms.  I'll see if I can dig up that list.  I think January 1987 had a storm that came close, too.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/climate/data/gso.daily.records.temp.precip.snow.html

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

I've came close a few times, but no.  January 2000 was close.  January 2002 was close.  February 2014 looked like a potential one, but we sleeted too much and ended with 8".  February 2004 might have done it here (this area was the dividing line between the 12"+ madness and 6" further north in the county), but I lived in West Virginia at the time (never got a foot during my few winters there, either).

 

We seem to be pretty good at 6-8" storms, though.  We've had quite a few in recent years.

 

Granted, I'm not that old (22 1/2), but as best as I can tell, there hasn't been a foot of snow to fall here since at least the 1980s and probably before that.  I recall seeing the list of the greatest snowstorms on record here and I think there were only a couple greater than 12" (1930 at 20" being the greatest, IIRC).

Jan 96? Had to been, I was in Winston and we had over 12"

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

Jan 96? Had to been, I was in Winston and we had over 12"

 

I don't think GSO recorded >12" from that storm.  In any case, I was in Trinity, NC (Thomasville area) for that one.  We had a crap ton of sleet down there.  I remember building an igloo with my father, haha. :lol:

 

accum.19960107.gif

 

GSO recorded 6.0" on January 6, 1996.  I'm not sure how much they got on the 7th.

 

EDIT: This site claims GSO recorded 9".

 

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=364912&sid=62701c852e777cc49129218b28107289#p364912

 

We're pretty good at missing out on that elusive foot, though.  See:

 

March 1980: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.19800302.gif

 

January 1987: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.19870123.gif

 

January 2000: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/accum.20000125.gif

 

January 2002: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20020102/accum.20020102.gif

 

February 2004: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20040227.gif (Look at that **** :lol:)

 

February 2014: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20140213/accum.20140213.gif

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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
Posted

Looks like a parade of sfc highs ready to come down out of western Canada toward the end of the run

 My "free" Euro sites are not that great (and the one that is good is real late to load - only out 1/3 of the way yet).

 

Looking at what I do have access to, it seems the 12Z does have plenty of cold air coming out of Canada by 240, but it looks to be bottled in the central CONUS; is there a mid-country trough with east and west coast ridging showing?

 

Thanks in advance!

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

 My "free" Euro sites are not that great (and the one that is good is real late to load - only out 1/3 of the way yet).

 

Looking at what I do have access to, it seems the 12Z does have plenty of cold air coming out of Canada by 240, but it looks to be bottled in the central CONUS; is there a mid-country trough with east and west coast ridging showing?

 

Thanks in advance!

 

Yep, cold comes down just east of the Rockies at the end...warmth hanging on in the SE...we'll have to see where the ensemble goes later

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

But why worthless until later?

I actually had an article yesterday with an image showing the % useful, if you will, for the teleconnections during el nino, etc. I have to find that. I'll post it once I do.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

I don't think GSO recorded >12" from that storm.  In any case, I was in Trinity, NC (Thomasville area) for that one.  We had a crap ton of sleet down there.  I remember building an igloo with my father, haha. :lol:

 

accum.19960107.gif

 

GSO recorded 6.0" on January 6, 1996.  I'm not sure how much they got on the 7th.

 

EDIT: This site claims GSO recorded 9".

 

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=364912&sid=62701c852e777cc49129218b28107289#p364912

 

We're pretty good at missing out on that elusive foot, though.  See:

 

March 1980: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.19800302.gif

 

January 1987: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.19870123.gif

 

January 2000: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/accum.20000125.gif

 

January 2002: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20020102/accum.20020102.gif

 

February 2004: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20040227.gif (Look at that **** :lol:)

 

February 2014: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20140213/accum.20140213.gif

1996 was one of my favorite storms ever. I was in Wake Forest at the time and we had 14 hours of sleet. On that map it shows 4-6 inches of accumulation(near Wake Forest); all of that was sleet. Amazing...  

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Wow

Wow

Posted
Posted

How many years since your foot now?

 

'87 or '88 ... 8" in March 93, 6-8" in Jan 96, 9" in Feb 04, 8-10" last year (I think being on the side of a hill screwed me on the foot... there were recordings not far from me with the foot).

 

Maybe I should up the ante and root for a 20" monster storm. 

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WxKnurd

WxKnurd

Posted
Posted

You also had heavier rates to start out with on the south side of town as opposed to what we had here on the western side of the county. So frustrating seeing your reports of heavy snow and a couple inches while I sat in a flizzard with a dusting for what seemed like forever.

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BullCityWx

BullCityWx

Posted
Posted

You also had heavier rates to start out with on the south side of town as opposed to what we had here on the western side of the county. So frustrating seeing your reports of heavy snow and a couple inches while I sat in a flizzard with a dusting for what seemed like forever.

 

yeah, we really did well that morning. I was surprised it moved so slow. 

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

yeah, we really did well that morning. I was surprised it moved so slow. 

 

I remember when that band started showing up on the Euro 36 hours out or so.  It looked insane and it definitely ended up being so.  It ended up being 50-75 miles further west than it initially showed and affected areas further south.  I couldn't believe how Mt. Airy and Roanoke got buried all day long on February 13th.  We had continual snow throughout the day, but it was mostly light with only moderate squalls and didn't add up to much with temperatures above freezing by that point.

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Since it's pretty dead and all we're taling about is past events I'll add this...I saw this in the banter and thought it was interesting as I was thinking about the same year. Note not trying to call you out Tim, just thought it was an interesting date you brought up.
 

timnc910, on 17 Dec 2014 - 2:50 PM, said:

    i think alot of people are going to get burned on this so called pattern flip... a couple days ago models were showing a nice block but  now it is short lived..there are more model solutions hanging the cold up in the west.... so i dont know what the hype is... you give me a setup like the january 28th storm last year where there was snow on the ground for three days or more and temps didnt get above 30 degrees for 48 or more hours then ill get excited... but models are all over the place right now

 

For the storm in quesiton, check out that cold and where it's positioned. Check out that +PNA.

pjQ32JI.gif

 

You're asking a lot for a pattern change that will START in around 8-9 days out. I've mentioned before about why people complain about the pattern being 10 days out, well, it is.

 

 

 

ENSEMBLE Euro 500mb heights on the 26th...two centers of arctic cold nowhere close to Canada.

dgNZFxV.png

 

Now ENS Euro 500mb heights on the 30th...wow...that took 4 days, all thanks to the christmas system that cuts. Notice the dates in both of the images...December 26th and December 30th. It's 13 days out, I know, it's a lot, but it keeps showing up and it's a pretty strong signal and it's what I and a lot of mets have been metioning when the pattern should flip.

mQhaqEW.png

 

 

Here she blows, CPC has picked up on it on their update....valid 25-31st, notice the heights over Alaska...that's a ridge. They got the memo this time. Unforunately they don't include canada in their outlooks or you'd see a bunch of blue over the hudson and central Canda I'm guessing. Also, I'd caution on reading an 8-14 day outlook verbatim...as they get closer and this gets under 10 days, I'm guessing it will grow and be quite impressive, but hey, that's just a guess. Most forecasters are making educated guesses in the end. I'll also add the CPC image has above average precip for the SE in the 8-14 day as well.

 

4eokowG.gif

 

Either way it looks as if a lot of people will be below normal in the LR, which will indeed be a pattern change, hence the hype. It's just hard for to model right now and get something tangible that proves to you that it will indeed happen. But for me, I'm already convinced. For those of you who don't buy it, I hope for everyone's sake you're proven wrong, including yours, so we can all make snow angels or at least, double up on jackets for january.

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

GFS after day 10 reminds me a lot of the pattern in 09/10. Lots of fun to come for the area if that holds. Combo of blocking over northern lattitudes/el-nino is usually a can't miss prospect.

 

Yep 18z is about the perfect pattern for anyone who loves winter weather. GFS PARA in the LR though is about the total opposite. 

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

One week from tommorrow we will all be enjoying the greatest day of the year while running possible 5 or more degrees below normal with a stiff wind. And best of all we will be talking about potential events instead of pattern changes 10 plus days out. Only 7 days till the flip will officially no longer be a fantasy but reality. In fact apart from our sensible weather in our backyards, you could argue even though in its infant stages the flip is just beginning 1000s of miles away.

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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
Posted

Yep 18z is about the perfect pattern for anyone who loves winter weather. GFS PARA in the LR though is about the total opposite. 

 Yup.

 

Now (serious question as I've been too busy at work to really keep up) - which one is trending "truer" over the past few weeks -- GFS or the GFS PARA?

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