Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

[Brick Tamland]

I think we have to accept that early December will be pretty mild. Of course, I believe that it will stay that way through the rest of the winter, due to the El Nino failing to have an impact, and the bad portents of such early cold. But we'll see.

 

 

Yeah, since I am so pessimistic on winter weather anyways I tend to agree with you but the background state of everything else says otherwise.

 

Why would the Nino fail to have an impact? Just because being pessimistic is easier?

 

Maybe it will bust, and would be the biggest bust ever since these weather boards started, but from what mets and others have said on here and at other places, there is no reason to be pessimistic at this stage. There has never been so much consensus for a big winter since these boards started, and there is a ton of history and evidence to support it. The only reason to be pessimistic at this stage is just for the sake of being pessimistic.

[packbacker]

Why would the Nino fail to have an impact? Just because being pessimistic is easier?

 

Maybe it will bust, and would be the biggest bust ever since these weather boards started, but from what mets and others have said on here and at other places, there is no reason to be pessimistic at this stage. There has never been so much consensus for a big winter since these boards started, and there is a ton of history and evidence to support it. The only reason to be pessimistic at this stage is just for the sake of being pessimistic.

 

I agreed with you, just saying the ens/seasonal modeling is saying otherwise at this point, something to consider.  But, if you wanted a cold/snowy winter there isn't a whole I would change at this point, except I would want us to already be in a moderate nino.  Nothing is a slam dunk though, and with 76-77 being thrown around as a top analog, it was not a snowy winter for a lot of folks, including us.

[griteater]

I agreed with you, just saying the ens/seasonal modeling is saying otherwise at this point, something to consider.  But, if you wanted a cold/snowy winter there isn't a whole I would change at this point, except I would want us to already be in a moderate nino.  Nothing is a slam dunk though, and with 76-77 being thrown around as a top analog, it was not a snowy winter for a lot of folks, including us.

 

Pack - agree on the mod nino...and also, solar minimum.  

[Marion_NC_WX]

Did you guys not even look at the Euro? That was the whole base behind Robert 's latest Facebook update.

Alaska Ridge shows up starting Day 7 with a new lobe of arctic air dropping down as a result. Another huge surface ridge appears on the surface maps.

The whole gist behind his update was that the models will once again be playing catch-up over the next several days to the next cold attack that's coming next week

[packfan98]

Did you guys not even look at the Euro? That was the whole base behind Robert 's latest Facebook update.

Alaska Ridge shows up starting Day 7 with a new lobe of arctic air dropping down as a result. Another huge surface ridge appears on the surface maps.

The whole gist behind his update was that the models will once again be playing catch-up over the next several days to the next cold attack that's coming next week

 

I thought that in years past he leaned towards the GFS?  Maybe the Euro is better at identifying patterns than individual storms?  Obviously each model has its strengths and weaknesses.

[Marion_NC_WX]

I thought that in years past he leaned towards the GFS? Maybe the Euro is better at identifying patterns than individual storms? Obviously each model has its strengths and weaknesses.

I think he gives both models equal merit... But the Euro as a whole has been better in recent history at sniffing out pattern recognition in the medium range more so than the GFS

[packbacker]

Did you guys not even look at the Euro? That was the whole base behind Robert 's latest Facebook update.

Alaska Ridge shows up starting Day 7 with a new lobe of arctic air dropping down as a result. Another huge surface ridge appears on the surface maps.

The whole gist behind his update was that the models will once again be playing catch-up over the next several days to the next cold attack that's coming next week

 

One staple of the 7+ day on the EPS is the big +NAO, there is some troughing in the east 7-10, but that fades in 11-15.  I am sure Robert is using more than just looking at the EPS.

 

[LithiaWx]

I think we have to accept that early December will be pretty mild. Of course, I believe that it will stay that way through the rest of the winter, due to the El Nino failing to have an impact, and the bad portents of such early cold. But we'll see.

 

 

The next month could be pretty benign winter weather wise for us folks. Be prepared for that as a likely outcome and try not to be butt hurt over it. There is a ton of winter left..... All of it to be exact. Even if we lose a couple weeks of met winter to a warm pattern, so what? It's not exactly prime time winter climo where we look for a parade of storms dropping snow usually. Patience grasshoppers.

 

I pretty much agree with the benign weather until at least mid-December.  Past that I don't think anyone knows enough to make a determination.

[Chattownsnow]

Did you guys not even look at the Euro? That was the whole base behind Robert 's latest Facebook update.

Alaska Ridge shows up starting Day 7 with a new lobe of arctic air dropping down as a result. Another huge surface ridge appears on the surface maps.

The whole gist behind his update was that the models will once again be playing catch-up over the next several days to the next cold attack that's coming next week

100% agree here. The models have been doing exactly this all fall so far. As we go deeper into winter This will only become even more focused to the south. You have got to pay attention to the trends of what the models are doing in the long to medium range, during a particular pattern set up and compare it to what ends up verifying.

      

      Some years the models will tend to show a cold set up in the long range only to switch as we get closer to time frame. Other Years they show warm then switch to cold as we approach the short to medium range on the models. Some years they show warm and rainy in the long range, and it ends up being just that to some extent. It is understanding the pattern and why the models are doing this that can give you a big hint of what things could end up being like, so long as there is nothing to change the pattern. Just as a pattern seems to lock into a particular rhythm the models seem to do the same thing. It is becoming fairly clear to me that a very volatile and cold winter is shaping up and all these forecasts are more than likely going to verify fairly well.   

[burgertime]

You look at the last frame of the Euro on the surface maps and it looks like it's setting up for something classic. Cold front moving down with some energy out west to ride along it....but what happens after or if it even continues showing up is a whole nother debate. 

[calculus1]

That would be nice.  I haven't seen any models supporting this though...unless "soon" means later on in December.  The Euro D10 still looks about like what I posted yesterday.  After that (and even that far out), I don't have much confidence in the models to get the pattern right.  You could make the case that we're in transition and the models always do poorly during those periods.  You could make the case that the models are just going to be exceptionally bad this year, for whatever reason, in the LR.  But if the models are to be believed at all, I'm not seeing any of them, not the GFS, Euro, CFS, CMC or anything else (even what I've heard about the Euro weeklies) that make a case for a wintry pattern setting in soon.  It would be nice to start seeing this.  Anyway, I hope Robert is right.  Synoptics do matter, like he says.

 

I believe that's why his banner states that the models are missing this reloading cold pattern that he's forecasting:  Robert also doesn't see any model supporting this in the long-range, but he has confidence in a continued cold pattern due to synoptics.  The models will perhaps come around to what he believes will occur as time goes by.

 

Or course, he could also be wrong...

 

But, he's got a pretty good track record of being correct.

[burgertime]

I believe that's why his banner states that the models are missing this reloading cold pattern that he's forecasting:  Robert also doesn't see any model supporting this in the long-range, but he has confidence in a continued cold pattern due to synoptics.  The models will perhaps come around to what he believes will occur as time goes by.

 

Or course, he could also be wrong...

 

But, he's got a pretty good track record of being correct.

 

 

I will say this. The pattern we are in currently and what the models are showing reminds me a ton of last winter. Models kept flipping to warm with crazy lows rolling through only to flip back to cold when it got close to that time frame. I think the chances of a big winter storm before the middle of December is unlikely but....I also think the LR is out to lunch due to the extreme flipping. 

[franklin NCwx]

I guess it's safe to say the cfs,euro weeklies, and the euro monthly for November will bust horribly. Call it a hunch.

[Cold Rain]

I believe that's why his banner states that the models are missing this reloading cold pattern that he's forecasting:  Robert also doesn't see any model supporting this in the long-range, but he has confidence in a continued cold pattern due to synoptics.  The models will perhaps come around to what he believes will occur as time goes by.

 

Or course, he could also be wrong...

 

But, he's got a pretty good track record of being correct.

 

Yep, he does.  This may be a case where the models are out to lunch in the LR all year long.  Who knows.  I am rooting for him to be correct.

[FallsLake]

12z GFS at hour 204 (Thanksgiving):

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=204ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_204_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141118+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

[pcbjr]

12z GFS at hour 204 (Thanksgiving):

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=204ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_204_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141118+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

 

 

Sure looks to get a bit warmer after that though. At least on that run ....

[LithiaWx]

Sure looks to get a bit warmer after that though. At least on that run ....

 

On the 12ZGFS here in N. GA there is a slow and steady climb of temps between now and next Tuesday then that pictured cool shot that lasts two days then right back up again. 

[mackerel_sky]

On the 12ZGFS here in N. GA there is a slow and steady climb of temps between now and next Tuesday then that pictured cool shot that lasts two days then right back up again.

Typical November weather in the south.

[FallsLake]

On the 12ZGFS here in N. GA there is a slow and steady climb of temps between now and next Tuesday then that pictured cool shot that lasts two days then right back up again. 

The way the models have changed their long range depictions you never really know if the warm up is real or not. As everybody else has said, we could be looking at a winter where the warm ups just don't materialize(set up) as strongly as we get closer (within 7 or 8 days).  

[Cold Rain]

The GFS looks like monkey butt in the long range...pretty much past D10.  It's probably wrong...not for any particular reason other than it's often wrong at that lead.  If it's 204 hour depiction is in the ballpark of reality, there is a little room to work on some wintry precipitation around that time.  The southern stream wave doesn't look to produce much precip.  Also, there is high pressure back west.  There is some room between now and then for some positive trends...at least for the western areas.

[packfan98]

Kirk Mellish seems to be thinking the same as Robert.  Here is a snippet from his blog this morning:

 

"The brief return of above normal temperatures Sunday/Monday may come at the price of heavy rain and storms.

We get a brief break before the Arctic hounds are unleashed again late November or December.

Sinking storm tracks, and a fast growing southern El Nino split flow jet stream coming on quickly gives me the fear that winter mischief is coming pretty quickly, even in part of the South. 

I don’t know if north jet stream flow will fully lock in totally for the entire winter just yet, (usually even the harshest Winters will see major thaws) but I am concerned that a major Southeast Winter Storm is on the table before we even get to Christmas this season.

I still prefer January and February as number one for highest snow and ice potential, but the way things are going, I think all 3 winter months have a higher than average chance to bring something, even early March."

 

Here is the link to the rest:

http://m.wsbradio.com/weblogs/kirk-mellishs-weather-commentary/2014/nov/18/november-our-discontent/

[franklin NCwx]

The GFS looks like monkey butt in the long range...pretty much past D10. It's probably wrong...not for any particular reason other than it's often wrong at that lead. If it's 204 hour depiction is in the ballpark of reality, there is a little room to work on some wintry precipitation around that time. The southern stream wave doesn't look to produce much precip. Also, there is high pressure back west. There is some room between now and then for some positive trends...at least for the western areas.

put that 10 day gfs crackpipe down buddy.

[Brick Tamland]

Kirk Mellish seems to be thinking the same as Robert.  Here is a snippet from his blog this morning:

 

"The brief return of above normal temperatures Sunday/Monday may come at the price of heavy rain and storms.

We get a brief break before the Arctic hounds are unleashed again late November or December.

Sinking storm tracks, and a fast growing southern El Nino split flow jet stream coming on quickly gives me the fear that winter mischief is coming pretty quickly, even in part of the South. 

I don’t know if north jet stream flow will fully lock in totally for the entire winter just yet, (usually even the harshest Winters will see major thaws) but I am concerned that a major Southeast Winter Storm is on the table before we even get to Christmas this season.

I still prefer January and February as number one for highest snow and ice potential, but the way things are going, I think all 3 winter months have a higher than average chance to bring something, even early March."

 

Here is the link to the rest:

http://m.wsbradio.com/weblogs/kirk-mellishs-weather-commentary/2014/nov/18/november-our-discontent/

 

 

Have to look at the big picture and not just the model runs for the next 10 days, which always change. The big picture still looks good for a big winter.

[BullCityWx]

I just did some research regarding Charlotte double digit snowfall winters and the correlation between a warm or cold december. 17 of those winters featured above normal decembers and 12 featured below normal decembers. I honestly thought that would be backward. 

[Cold Rain]

put that 10 day gfs crackpipe down buddy.

 

Ha! It's good that it's not showing a snowstorm at this point!

[packbacker]

Ha! It's good that it's not showing a snowstorm at this point!

 

The 12z Euro has a big snowstorm day 10…....for the mid-west.  Big west coast trough and big old east coast ridge, which will be a reoccurring theme this winter, LOL…Just kidding…hopefully!  

 

Edit:  Gotta love the big +NAO!  

 

[pcbjr]

The 12z Euro has a big snowstorm day 10…....for the mid-west.  Big west coast trough and big old east coast ridge, which will be a reoccurring theme this winter, LOL…Just kidding…hopefully!

 

 

 

This is getting depressing ....

[Cold Rain]

Mets vs. Models

 

That's one ugly map, Pack.  Looks like you warministas won this round!

[packbacker]

Mets vs. Models

That's one ugly map, Pack. Looks like you warministas won this round!

It seems obvious that the first half of Dec will be seasonal to warm, after that hopefully it turns.

[Brick Tamland]

It seems obvious that the first half of Dec will be seasonal to warm, after that hopefully it turns.

 

How does the next four weeks of weather seem obvious?