Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

[dsaur]

Do you even weather map bro? I'm kidding. Mostly

 

Even if the SE were in the "white", it would be pretty normal for climo. I seriously can't wrap my head around what people were/are expecting. This isn't Wisconsin or Maine. It never will be. Aside from occasional arctic blasts that penetrate farther south than usual, departures of -8/-9 just don't linger here.

Me too.  It'll get cold, it always does, but will it rain?  I've got .25 for the month so far, and had a weeks worth of temps where it could have fallen frozen.  Need to be worrying about actually seeing real rain, not fantasy land gom lows that don't verify.  So far I'm getting little or nothing, so all the cold in the world won't freeze nothing   And little leaves little chance for a timing event.  Normal would work, with normal cold, but I'm waiting on that still.  T

[deltadog03]

Not going to lie, I am super fired up about this pattern shift and next weeks storm. 

https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons

[packbacker]

Hopefully the -AO/-NAO will be showing it's early effects.

 

Latest GEFS looks plenty active into New Years, broad trough, blocking, -EPO...

[SnowNiner]

Anything right after Xmas may track to our NW, but I think as we get close to new years into early Jan will be more favorable for us.  Besides, I would rather have a week or so of cold then get a storm.

 

Yeah, but with that 12z block shown, I still don't understand why they're cutting after christmas.  I'm going to ignore the op runs until things are under 7 days.  GEFS is going to be my model of choice I think for the upper level dynamics for the next week or so.  I really want to latch onto a good -NAO.  I still think that's the most important piece of the puzzle for a consistently good Jan/Feb. 

 

But according to the 6Z GEFS, the -NAO is very short lived....it runs away shortly after christmas. Hope that changes. 

 

[DaculaWeather]

Op runs greater than 180 hours now are worthless. I agree, ensembles and good pattern recognition are the things to focus on now. I think trying to look at details more than 5 days out at this point is a waste. It seems like every time I look, the AO and NAO and doing something different. Because of the big changes coming, the models will be in left field, maybe until after the Christmas storm. 

[deltadog03]

-NAO is the last index I look at right now.  IMO its not as important until we get later into JAN-MAR.  Even LAte JAN.  The EPO and AO will DRIVE the pattern right now.

 

edit...changed wording.

[griteater]

-NAO is the last index I look at right now.  IMO its almost worthless until we get later into JAN-MAR.  Even LAte JAN.  The EPO and AO will DRIVE the pattern right now.

 

But why worthless until later?

[DaculaWeather]

I think maybe what he meant was that the NAO will have more influence as we progress through winter. If I remember correctly, the NAO effects really comes into play with an El Nino during the February time frame. 

[SnowNiner]

But why worthless until later?

 

Yeah I really want the -NAO now....to lock in cold to the north and keep the storms to the south.  I can't stand seeing cutter after cutter, and Highs to the north retreating just in time for a cold rain.  Gotta have it or you're relying on perfect timing.  We know how that works out. 

[metwannabe]

Yeah I really want the -NAO now....to lock in cold to the north and keep the storms to the south. I can't stand seeing cutter after cutter, and Highs to the north retreating just in time for a cold rain. Gotta have it or you're relying on perfect timing. We know how that works out.

Worked out well last year. We can all wish for a -NAO to lock in for a while. But let's be honest we have not had that in years and have done fairly well. I think we would all take our chances with a -NAO that sets up then breaks down and then sets back up. Even a brief -NAO is better than none at all like years past

[deltadog03]

But why worthless until later?

I should rephrase.  sorry, I shouldn't say worthless.  Bad choice of word.  I should say not as important.  Later as the jet matures into winter yes..absolutely. 

[deltadog03]

I think maybe what he meant was that the NAO will have more influence as we progress through winter. If I remember correctly, the NAO effects really comes into play with an El Nino during the February time frame. 

Thank you..Ya sorry, very poor choice of words...I should say its affects on the pattern is much more important/felt later in the season as pattern matures.

[deltadog03]

12z EURO...You have been cleared for take off, king...LOL  Its looking like it might have another HUGE storm next week. #gawx #Macon

[deltadog03]

By 00z wed, EURO has a 990mb low over N AL.  Thats going to SCREAM severe weather.  *IF* thats right.  The cold coming behind it looks NASSSTY

[SnowNiner]

Worked out well last year. We can all wish for a -NAO to lock in for a while. But let's be honest we have not had that in years and have done fairly well. I think we would all take our chances with a -NAO that sets up then breaks down and then sets back up. Even a brief -NAO is better than none at all like years past

 

Yeah, it worked out one time for Charlotte...and that was the February storm that had a psuedo "baffin island block" that acted as a -NAO and kept the storm to the south.  Very fortunate.  However I'm looking for a great pattern.  I believed the hype!! And to get a GREAT pattern and not just a "it's possible" pattern, we need a -NAO. 

[Brick Tamland]

By 00z wed, EURO has a 990mb low over N AL.  Thats going to SCREAM severe weather.  *IF* thats right.  The cold coming behind it looks NASSSTY

 

Not unusual for us to go from one extreme to the other.

[deltadog03]

nope, and thats a strong cold push after in here.  I really want this storm to happen.  It will help drive the pattern change.

[Wow]

nope, and thats a strong cold push after in here.  I really want this storm to happen.  It will help drive the pattern change.

 

Might set up a nice Baffin Block the more energy that drops in.

[tnweathernut]

By 00z wed, EURO has a 990mb low over N AL. Thats going to SCREAM severe weather. *IF* thats right. The cold coming behind it looks NASSSTY

For reference sake, is that further east than yesterday or more of a timing difference. I thought yesterday was in northern MS/western TN......

[griteater]

Might set up a nice Baffin Block the more energy that drops in.

 

Prepare for glory?

[packbacker]

Per the GEFS the NAO is solidly negative for 5-6 days but by day 15 half the members have if going positive and half have it negative. So we don't know what's going to happen with it. But, with a little luck we can squeak something out around New Years.

[deltadog03]

Might set up a nice Baffin Block the more energy that drops in.

Very much so.  The 2m temps are a bit lagging, but the mid and upper levels are super cold.  I would guess we will see colder 2m temps, but whats coming behind is going to make Canada a refrigerator.

[Wow]

Big trough east of HI... that energy back west at 192 won't be staying there!

[franklin NCwx]

For reference sake, is that further east than yesterday or more of a timing difference. I thought yesterday was in northern MS/western TN......

yes farther east. If we can bumble it east a little more that can turn into one heck of an upslope event for Christmas!

[deltadog03]

Either way, there are some big signs of HUGE storm potential.  Whether they are Severe weather ones, or wintry or both, you have to admit its exciting to see the pattern changing.

[deltadog03]

Big trough east of HI... that energy back west at 192 won't be staying there!

agree 100%  We have to remember, it can't stay there with that E of HI

[BullCityWx]

Might set up a nice Baffin Block the more energy that drops in.

How many years since your foot now?

[metwannabe]

Yeah, it worked out one time for Charlotte...and that was the February storm that had a psuedo "baffin island block" that acted as a -NAO and kept the storm to the south. Very fortunate. However I'm looking for a great pattern. I believed the hype!! And to get a GREAT pattern and not just a "it's possible" pattern, we need a -NAO.

Right I agree but a great pattern does not always produce great results

[griteater]

Looks like a parade of sfc highs ready to come down out of western Canada toward the end of the run

[superjames1992]

How many years since your foot now?

 

Didn't he get a foot this past February? 

 

I've still never seen a foot.  We did have a foot of snowcover after January 2000, but that was from the prior storm a few days before (from as best as I can speculate, we ended up with a inch or two less than a foot from the storm itself).  Maybe it will happen someday, but I don't think GSO has seen a foot in many decades, so maybe not...  Of course, I doubt I'll live here forever, so maybe there's hope.