Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

[metwannabe]

This is concerning....unless one wants to just summarily discard the CFS. You could have discarded it for November. But the cold pattern got a huge boost from the super typhoon. And it was right about the warm December, though maybe not to the magnitude it was showing.

The last couple of runs of the Weeklies also don't sound as good as they did two weeks or so ago. I'm only judging that based on what I have interpreted other peoples' interpretations to be.

You also have the EPS dumping the cold more west.

All of that vs the GFS and CMC ensembles and analogs and SAI expectations. Right now, it still feels like the balance of power is tipped toward cold coming sooner rather than later. But if we get to mid January and we're still stepping down or laying the groundwork or setting the table, then we'll know next time which data to throw out and which to weight more heavily.

I feel like hyped expectations also have many expecting a locked cold wall to tall Jan/ Feb. We live in the south and that's not gonna happen. patterns will let up and then build back again. I just feel some of these extreme predictions for this winter have given false hope to some of a locked in cold wall to wall

[burgertime]

CFS continues to show warm January, with a trend away from a slightly cool east coast. The weeklies are also warmer for the east. Trend is not encouraging.

 

Am I missing something? 

[Cold Rain]

I feel like hyped expectations also have many expecting a locked cold wall to tall Jan/ Feb. We live in the south and that's not gonna happen. patterns will let up and then build back again. I just feel some of these extreme predictions for this winter have given false hope to some of a locked in cold wall to wall

Maybe so. I can somewhat agree with that. We're going to likely close out December without having had very much in the way of winter for the whole month. I'm not saying the end of the month can't turn cold. It could. It might. But it's still up in the air. Anyway, we could very well close out December with a wall to wall cold winter completely off the table but with a wall to wall non winter still completely ON the table. I would not have expected that coming into this winter.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Am I missing something?

I'm no expert at reading maps, but dont all those yellows on the east coast of FL mean above normal temps ?

[WidreMann]

Am I missing something? 

I'm looking at this site: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/. It doesn't match what your site shows.

[Cold Rain]

I'm no expert at reading maps, but dont all those yellows on the east coast of FL mean above normal temps ?

Florida is cooking baby!

Lol it's funny that's what you took away from that map. I didn't even notice the yellow on the east coast of FL till you pointed it out.

[WidreMann]

I'm no expert at reading maps, but dont all those yellows on the east coast of FL mean above normal temps ?

Yes, but who cares about slightly above normal temps right on the east coast of ****ing Florida?

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Florida is cooking baby!

Lol it's funny that's what you took away from that map. I didn't even notice the yellow on the east coast of FL till you pointed it out.

what I took away from the map is yellows in the south, the deeper blues up north. To me, that means the coldest air relative to normal stays up north. Oh, and 99% of the south is in the lightest shade of blue.

[WidreMann]

what I took away from the map is yellows in the south, the deeper blues up north. To me, that means the coldest air relative to normal stays up north. Oh, and 99% of the south is in the lightest shade of blue.

It has us 2-3 F below normal, which is pretty chilly. What it shows in Florida really doesn't matter at all.

[pcbjr]

What it shows in Florida really doesn't matter at all.

 

 

Beg your pardon .....

 

[Cold Rain]

It has us 2-3 F below normal, which is pretty chilly. What it shows in Florida really doesn't matter at all.

Yeah I'll take 2-3 below. Earlier, I saw the same thing you did....I just didn't bring it up. I chalked it up toe either not knowing what I was looking at or the CFS being the CFS.

[superjames1992]

I'm looking at this site: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/. It doesn't match what your site shows.

 

I think that site shows the CFS model runs averaged over the last 30 days, whereas Burger's map shows the most recent CFS runs.  I'm not sure what it is best to go with as I tend to ignore the seasonal models, for better or for worse.

 

Not that it really matters, but the Euro weekly control run is a disaster with cutter after cutter.  I shouldn't have looked.

[Batman]

what I took away from the map is yellows in the south, the deeper blues up north. To me, that means the coldest air relative to normal stays up north. Oh, and 99% of the south is in the lightest shade of blue.

More important than worrying about the particular degrees from normal is the overall pattern shown. Eastern US trough, Western US ridge. That is consistent with what has been expected for Jan/Feb by most for months. It would seem with the type of weak El Nino that is expected, that the departures from normal would be stronger in the south. But it is a model run and it is generally consistent with the overall idea of most of the variables, indices, and analogs that have been discussed that have led to the high expectations of this winter. This is a good sign overall. There are plenty good signs out there. There are plenty skilled mets pointing to them and saying that we are on course. It seems that folks here want to find the model runs that show something negative and dwell heavily on them. Kind of the reverse of seeing a 360 hour fantasy storm on the GFS and going to Kroger and buying 5 gallons of milk and 5 loaves of bread then heading to Home Depot to get a generator and a chain saw.

[griteater]

I'm no expert at reading maps, but dont all those yellows on the east coast of FL mean above normal temps ?

 

Surely you can do better than this snowstorm

[packbacker]

This is concerning....unless one wants to just summarily discard the CFS. You could have discarded it for November. But the cold pattern got a huge boost from the super typhoon. And it was right about the warm December, though maybe not to the magnitude it was showing.

The last couple of runs of the Weeklies also don't sound as good as they did two weeks or so ago. I'm only judging that based on what I have interpreted other peoples' interpretations to be.

You also have the EPS dumping the cold more west.

All of that vs the GFS and CMC ensembles and analogs and SAI expectations. Right now, it still feels like the balance of power is tipped toward cold coming sooner rather than later. But if we get to mid January and we're still stepping down or laying the groundwork or setting the table, then we'll know next time which data to throw out and which to weight more heavily.

I am pumped that blocking is returning the last 7-10 days of the month and per the weeklies looks strong the first week of Jan. I think the EPO/PNA will go our way sooner or later.

[RONALD B]

there's a nother big warming event showing up on the euro ensembels poss split of the voltex ?https://twitter.com/WSI_Energy/status/544154914847731712/photo/1 ps this looks old but the ensembles runs still showing it .

[deltadog03]

GFS lays the HAMMER down tonight.  2m temps are freakin' COLD!!  Some wintry threats are nearby as well. 

[AlaskaETC]

I'm looking at this site: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/. It doesn't match what your site shows.

CFSV2 is garbage.

[Jon]

I think that site shows the CFS model runs averaged over the last 30 days, whereas Burger's map shows the most recent CFS runs.  I'm not sure what it is best to go with as I tend to ignore the seasonal models, for better or for worse.

 

Not that it really matters, but the Euro weekly control run is a disaster with cutter after cutter.  I shouldn't have looked.

yeah the link Widre posted uses initial conditions and what not, there are multiple CFSv2 products that aren't on that link.

[deltadog03]

EURO is about to let some really big bomb out on its run.. There is so much energy flying around and starting to bundle.  HR150

[deltadog03]

HR168, the euro is about to CRANK something big.  Full phase almost complete over the S plains.  996mb over MS.

[Shawn]

poop. it's all poop. we have a 599 ridge over head through mid jan.  planting some tomatoes tomorrow.

[superjames1992]

Quite a system there on the 00z Euro.  It's probably just overamplifying stuff again, but that's one hell of a modeled storm.

[FallsLake]

6z GFS not bad. It would not give us any wintery precip up to Christmas, but maybe some snow showers for some on Christmas day as very cold air sweeps in. The cold then sets up a potential storm at New Years.

 

Edit: Also a smaller wintery threat at day 26/27 from north GA through the Carolina.

[packbacker]

Quite the shift on the EPS, no longer dumping the cold in the west, it's spilling east now and is cold for us day 11-15. Trough isn't as deep as GEFS but is nice.

[burgertime]

Everyone should  be in a much better mood today. My take away from the models last night is that we're in a much better position. Pretty much every model is now starting to see the pattern change coming around hour 240. Even the Euro has big cold coming in the west at 240.....while some will take away that the cold is delayed it shows the Euro is seeing the start of it. That's what we badly need. Hopefully the GFS has a better handle as again the pattern change is showing up at 240 for the East. Throws us in the freezer. 

[deltadog03]

I think the pattern is ripe. It's gonna knock some asses around when it comes into the country. I would say the euro is prolly to strong with that Christmas storm, and most likely is, but dang! Gfs has something like it as well.

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[deltadog03]

I agree Jonathan. Aka hamburger I mean burger. Hehe. This pattern will produce.

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[DaculaWeather]

WSI Energy Weather @WSI_Energy

This Eurasia stratospheric warming event will likely result in a displacement of the Polar Vortex off the North Pole. pic.twitter.com/DbDa2lhvRq

 

WSI Energy Weather @WSI_Energy

Models are trending in favor for a significant Eurasia stratospheric warming event during the next 2 weeks. pic.twitter.com/1WsH9NtwIY

 

WSI Energy Weather @WSI_Energy

The Return of Winter: Upcoming pattern change looks imminent across the lower 48 during late December. pic.twitter.com/GwKHF7Mwql

[Met1985]

Everyone should  be in a much better mood today. My take away from the models last night is that we're in a much better position. Pretty much every model is now starting to see the pattern change coming around hour 240. Even the Euro has big cold coming in the west at 240.....while some will take away that the cold is delayed it shows the Euro is seeing the start of it. That's what we badly need. Hopefully the GFS has a better handle as again the pattern change is showing up at 240 for the East. Throws us in the freezer. 

Good post burger. Was pretty much going to say the same thing. Looks like everything is evolving nicely. Also if you have time check out the mountain threat. Marion posted some great stuff over there about the upcoming pattern.