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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

LithiaWx

By LithiaWx,
in Southeastern States

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

There are stark differences between the Euro and GFS Ensembles in the final week of the year.  Both have a weak -NAO look, but the Euro has more western troughing and slight ridging in the SE, while the GFS is quite chilly with a trough east of the Rockies.  The difference lies in the the location and orientation of the -EPO ridging in Alaska.

 

Got to love seeing a SE ridge on the EPS to end Dec and start Jan off.  It's, going to be interesting to see who is correct.  JB just blasts the GFS all the time, but all he posts on twitter is the GEFS 11-15, never posts the EPS day 11-15. 

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Got to love seeing a SE ridge on the EPS to end Dec and start Jan off. It's, going to be interesting to see who is correct. JB just blasts the GFS all the time, but all he posts on twitter is the GEFS 11-15, never posts the EPS day 11-15.

Meh, not worried. None of our analogs have a SE ridge worth a dime, so the EPS is probably wrong. All the analog data shows us having a rockin January and February. We're good.

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metwannabe

metwannabe

Posted
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Got to love seeing a SE ridge on the EPS to end Dec and start Jan off. It's, going to be interesting to see who is correct. JB just blasts the GFS all the time, but all he posts on twitter is the GEFS 11-15, never posts the EPS day 11-15.

It's not a true SE ridge it has more to do with the trougj digging in the west pumping heights out front
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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

Posted
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I don't know, if I had to pick one, I'd say the GEFS has had a better record finding these pattern changes in the past years.  Ironically it seems to do well in patterns, and not so much with storms IMO.  Looking at the runs, it seems to be still looking good around christmas to new years and beyond.  Not frigid, but probably enough to do the job if we get the features in the right places.  EURO is not completely different and looks similar at day 10.  I think we're still on track more or less. 

 

Both seems to be on board with a -NAO.  That and a split stream and I think it's going to work this year.  We'll see. 

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Southern Track

Southern Track

Posted
Posted

Because 13 day snowstorms rarely verify.  Statistics.

Haha, for entertainment purposes, the Euro control has every state in the lower 48 except Florida by the end of that 13 day storm.

 

It has a line of a foot of snow from about Athens Ne into the Upstate SC, then reaches SE to just north of Columbia with the foot accum, to 3/4th's of NC. 

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
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Just from looking at the GFS vs. the Euro ensembles in the long range.........................it would be nice if the bias of holding the trough back in the southwest is the reason it looks to pop a hint of a se ridge.

 

I don't know though, the ridging that grows to a monster is in the aleutians vs the gulf of alaska, so that solution could very well be right.

 

Either way, the cold is coming to North America.  It doesn't happen often where most of the lower 48 is below normal, but I think the upcoming pattern could do it with the monster -EPO and the -NAO showing.  

 

I could definitely see a storm or two that begins as a driving rainstorm that turns to a nice snow with the look of the ensembles.  We used to have those back in the day when i was a boy.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

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Haha, for entertainment purposes, the Euro control has every state in the lower 48 except Florida by the end of that 13 day storm.

 

It has a line of a foot of snow from about Athens Ne into the Upstate SC, then reaches SE to just north of Columbia with the foot accum, to 3/4th's of NC. 

 

How awesome would that end up being?  It would be really cool to just once track a 10 day snowstorm all the way in, without it wavering.  If the pattern really does progress like it's supposed to, the period just before and after the new year may legitimately bring a real winter threat to the region.  That is IF the pattern change remains on track and really does come to fruition.

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metwannabe

metwannabe

Posted
Posted

How awesome would that end up being? It would be really cool to just once track a 10 day snowstorm all the way in, without it wavering. If the pattern really does progress like it's supposed to, the period just before and after the new year may legitimately bring a real winter threat to the region. That is IF the pattern change remains on track and really does come to fruition.

The pattern change starts this weekend...... The down stream effects to YBY can be debated but there is no doubt the pattern will change

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Southern Track

Southern Track

Posted
Posted

How awesome would that end up being? It would be really cool to just once track a 10 day snowstorm all the way in, without it wavering. If the pattern really does progress like it's supposed to, the period just before and after the new year may legitimately bring a real winter threat to the region. That is IF the pattern change remains on track and really does come to fruition.

I would agree CR. What's interesting is it isn't a true Miller A track. It's a CAD signal that has the 850's cold enough in those areas I mentioned. Which you think would make sense considering all the winter weather we've had seems to come from that set up.

It is far far away though. One can only hope.

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packbacker

packbacker

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How awesome would that end up being?  It would be really cool to just once track a 10 day snowstorm all the way in, without it wavering.  If the pattern really does progress like it's supposed to, the period just before and after the new year may legitimately bring a real winter threat to the region.  That is IF the pattern change remains on track and really does come to fruition.

 

The EPS control run is similar to the GEFS day 11-15 mean, if that were to verify then it would be very realistic to have a winter storm around new years.  Only reason I am down on the next 2 weeks is the EPS mean doesn't agree.

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Batman

Batman

Posted
Posted

You did the same thing last Dec. You called for a top 5 warmest December on record...If I recall. Just give the pattern change a chance to unfold, then the models won't make such drastic changes from run-to-run. Rest assured, the last half of the month will be colder than the first half (anomaly-wise).

Lots of people were ready to jump off the cliff and cancel winter last year right up until about Christmas day when it became obvious on the models what was about to happen. I am constantly amazed at this. It often seems that more people complain about a pattern that is not perfect or ideal than get excited about a really good pattern. I guess I like to look on the bright side. WRT December, current departures are not that far above normal. I am not saying the next two weeks will take us below for sure. I am saying that conceding an above normal December is premature. Either way, it will likely not be far off of normal. We have done much worse in December. Even in winters that turned out really good. I suspect, in a week or two, the talk about when the pattern change is coming will be history....until the next time.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

The pattern change starts this weekend...... The down stream effects to YBY can be debated but there is no doubt the pattern will change

 

Well, you know what I mean.  The pattern will definitely change.  I expect it will change favorably.  But it hasn't yet, so it's still an IF.  That's what I meant.  I think we're good.

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

Posted
Posted

Hey Webber - What is +TNA mean?

Tropical Northern Atlantic index

Anomaly of the average of the monthly SST from 5.5N to 23.5N and 15W to 57.5W. HadISST and NOAA OI 1x1 datasets are used to create index. Climatology is 1971-2000.

Enfield, D.B., A.M. Mestas, D.A. Mayer, and L. Cid-Serrano, 1999: How ubiquitous is the dipole relationship in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures? JGR-O, 104, 7841-7848.AOML and PSD

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CAD_Wedge_NC

CAD_Wedge_NC

Posted
Posted

On the 0z run, the coldest we get here at 850 is -1.3 AND we're only below 850 for 3 frames out of the entire run. We only have one low at 32 or below(monday). I dont think there's a single doubt that we end up above normal for the month now.

 

Talk about your run-to-run changes in the LR.... look at the latest GFS run. Much different look. Goes to show you what a hard time the models have during these pattern changes.

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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

Posted
Posted

The last frame of the GFS, it looks like that clipper would be the proverbial hammer that brings the cold afterward. Of course, we're talking about the LR GFS. 

 

From hr 288 to the end of the run, Charlotte stays pretty cold IMO...never gets above freezing (on the 12hr panels).  Again right after christmas things look to get cold.  Standard GFS long range disclaimers apply.

 

gxyrkz7l.png

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