Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

[Cold Rain]

Yeah, I agree, the day 11-15 does start to get better as we approach the end of the year but I don't see a snow pattern yet, atleast for us non-mountain folks.  The cold is building in the west and trying to come east by end of the run.  Still going to take some time, I like CR's call of mid-January before we get to anything.   So just another 4 or 5 weeks.

 

Lol

[packbacker]

Lol

I bet week 4 of the weeklies looks great.

[Cold Rain]

I bet week 4 of the weeklies looks great.

 

When does it not?

 

At least the 240 GFS/Euro ENS look very similar now with troughing in the east.  And the OP Euro is starting to look good.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Yeah, I agree, the day 11-15 does start to get better as we approach the end of the year but I don't see a snow pattern yet, atleast for us non-mountain folks.  The cold is building in the west and trying to come east by end of the run.  Still going to take some time, I like CR's call of mid-January before we get to anything.   So just another 4 or 5 weeks.

 

 

You might want to re-think that statement. It's going to get cold here before that. Unless you are calling highs near freezing and lows near 10 just your average run-of-the-mill weather.

[packbacker]

You might want to re-think that statement. It's going to get cold here before that. Unless you are calling highs near freezing and lows near 10 just your average run-of-the-mill weather.

I definitely don't see highs at freezing in the anytime soon. No ensemble shows that level of cold the next 15 days. Who is calling for that in the near future?

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

I definitely don't see highs at freezing in the anytime soon. No ensemble shows that level of cold the next 15 days. Who is calling for that in the near future?

No one is calling for that. You were implying that we would have to wait for another 4-5 weeks to get cold. I was just wondering what your definition of cold was. Cold to me is anytime that 500-1000 thickness is below the 540 range and very cold is when the thickness goes below 528. Hope that explains my reasoning.

[nflwxman]

I definitely don't see highs at freezing in the anytime soon. No ensemble shows that level of cold the next 15 days. Who is calling for that in the near future?

I agree, but the pattern, as advertised by the GFS and CMC ENS), between xmas-New years still screams some type of Miller A (if we can get a shortwave).  It's a really nice pattern that even the southern piedmont can get in on.  I'm not sure you will have to wait another 4 weeks for accumulating snow in Raleigh. Two weeks, perhaps.

[burgertime]

I agree, but the pattern, as advertised by the GFS and CMC ENS), between xmas-New years still screams some type of Miller A (if we can get a shortwave).  It's a really nice pattern that even the southern piedmont can get in on.  I'm not sure you will have to wait another 4 weeks for accumulating snow in Raleigh. Two weeks, perhaps.

 

Def. agree and with waves rolling out of the Pac it's hard to believe something doesn't come underneath and up. 

[packbacker]

No one is calling for that. You were implying that we would have to wait for another 4-5 weeks to get cold. I was just wondering what your definition of cold was. Cold to me is anytime that 500-1000 thickness is below the 540 range and very cold is when the thickness goes below 528. Hope that explains my reasoning.

I didn't say anything about cold, I am looking for a snow pattern. 4-5 weeks is a guess, but is out typical start of peak timing for snow, but waiting till atleast January seems likely.

[nflwxman]

I didn't say anything about cold, I am looking for a snow pattern. 4-5 weeks is a guess, but is out typical start of peak timing for snow, but waiting till atleast January seems likely.

I guess it depends how one defines a snow pattern.  Truth be told, 70% of our events are flawed in some way with a either the NAO or PNA not cooperating.  You don't need a perfect pattern to get snow, but what is being advertised later this month is actually pretty damn close to ideal for everyone north of ATL, all things considered.  This assumes the ensembles are on to something.  

[Webberweather53]

I didn't say anything about cold, I am looking for a snow pattern. 4-5 weeks is a guess, but is out typical start of peak timing for snow, but waiting till atleast January seems likely.

 

4-5 weeks is a bit overdone... The bread & butter of El Nino winters is during the heart of the winter from the last week of December thru mid February. The relatively minor threat (at this juncture at least) from the storm next week is coming right on cue...

[BullCityWx]

4-5 weeks is a bit overdone... The bread & butter of El Nino winters is during the heart of the winter from the last week of December thru mid February. The relatively minor threat (at this juncture at least) from the storm next week is coming right on cue...

 

That is a really cool graph, did you make that?

[griteater]

I pretty much agree with Pack.  Euro Ens keeps the bulk of the cold to our north and northwest in the extended range.  It's better than what we have right now, so maybe we get a bit closer to the wintry precip, but it's far from ideal.  North Atlantic does look better.  

 

Good patterns do exist...we just haven't seen them in, say, years.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

I guess it depends how one defines a snow pattern. Truth be told, 70% of our events are flawed in some way with a either the NAO or PNA not cooperating. You don't need a perfect pattern to get snow, but what is being advertised later this month is actually pretty damn close to ideal for everyone north of ATL, all things considered. This assumes the ensembles are on to something.

so you're saying the pattern from Birmingham to Columbia is not favorable for snow later this month ? I guess we will have to wait until mid January before we see a favorable pattern in the deep south ? Or maybe February ?

[burgertime]

so you're saying the pattern from Birmingham to Columbia is not favorable for snow later this month ? I guess we will have to wait until mid January before we see a favorable pattern in the deep south ? Or maybe February ?

 

Usually Birmingham to Columbia isn't favorable in the heart of winter. 

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Usually Birmingham to Columbia isn't favorable in the heart of winter.

neither is nc or tn for that matter. But this is supposed to be an epic winter, and an epic winter means snow even in the deep south, right ? This isn't your ordinary winter is it ? In a normal winter, we may not get any snow. But not this winter.

Atlanta had about 5" of snow/sleet last winter and from what I've been hearing, this winter will be just as snowy. So I expect nothing less than 5".

[LithiaWx]

Usually Birmingham to Columbia isn't favorable in the heart of winter. 

 

I-20 is usually the cutoff for winter weather.  Sometimes people ask why interstates seem to be dividing lines for snow and the reason is they roads are built on natural variations in the terrain, usually.  Hence why I-20, I-85, I-40 usually are barriers to storms.  That said Snowstorm is just being difficult.  Birmingham to Atlanta to Columbia all sit at about the same latitude and are probably included in nfl's statement when he said ATL northward.

 

Reality is it's hard to get a good storm in any of those cities, usually you can count on one "storm" a year in those areas, while areas just north can get a couple to a few.

[nflwxman]

I-20 is usually the cutoff for winter weather.  Sometimes people ask why interstates seem to be dividing lines for snow and the reason is they roads are built on natural variations in the terrain, usually.  Hence why I-20, I-85, I-40 usually are barriers to storms.  That said Snowstorm is just being difficult.  Birmingham to Atlanta to Columbia all sit at about the same latitude and are probably included in nfl's statement when he said ATL northward.

 

Reality is it's hard to get a good storm in any of those cities, usually you can count on one "storm" a year in those areas, while areas just north can get a couple to a few.

 

Right.  Snow climo really drops off a cliff south of CLT, if I recall correctly.  

[packbacker]

I pretty much agree with Pack.  Euro Ens keeps the bulk of the cold to our north and northwest in the extended range.  It's better than what we have right now, so maybe we get a bit closer to the wintry precip, but it's far from ideal.  North Atlantic does look better.  

 

Good patterns do exist...we just haven't seen them in, say, years.

Thanks! It's not winter cancel by any means, just taking time.

[packbacker]

I guess it depends how one defines a snow pattern.  Truth be told, 70% of our events are flawed in some way with a either the NAO or PNA not cooperating.  You don't need a perfect pattern to get snow, but what is being advertised later this month is actually pretty damn close to ideal for everyone north of ATL, all things considered.  This assumes the ensembles are on to something.

Good point, we could get lucky, it happens, but i don't looke at the 11-15 GEFS or EPS and say we have a great chance at an event.

[burgertime]

Right. Snow climo really drops off a cliff south of CLT, if I recall correctly.

Half the time it drops off at CLT hell I think Birmingham the last few years had as much if not more snow than us. Just a hard city to get big snows.

[buckeyefan1]

so you're saying the pattern from Birmingham to Columbia is not favorable for snow later this month ? I guess we will have to wait until mid January before we see a favorable pattern in the deep south ? Or maybe February ?

     my patience is running thin      

[Jon]

Pack - look at the 500mb height on the EPS mean instead of the anomalies and you'll get a better idea. The cold probably isn't going to be building in the west and trying to come east. The majority of the cold the arctic has to offer will come via cross-polar flow and centered in N Canada, just above/touching the hudson bay. Look at hour 276 to the end of the run and you'll see what I'm talking about.

 

Edit: The model center maps from here actually illustrate it decently...you can see a much better +PNA by the new year as well.

 

 

 

For the anomaly map I think it's misplacing the trough in the west, I've talked about this...by this time the PNA should reload as it's actually set to go negative on a lot of models for a bit. Even if you look at the GEFS 850mb anomalies you can see the warmth over canada breaking down, look at hudson bay in all the frames for the evolution.

I see no slow down in the evolution of a colder period as we head into the new year.

[jburns]

     my patience is running thin      

Thanks.  I was about to do worse.

[BullCityWx]

Right.  Snow climo really drops off a cliff south of CLT, if I recall correctly.  

 

Yep. You have areas pretty close into CLT that do OK(by the regional standards) but once you get to Monroe, things get back quick. 

[packbacker]

Weeklies were kind of meh...temps were neutral to slightly above, week 3 does have -NAO but wanes week 4. I don't get the warm fuzzies but also wouldn't say it would be snowless.

[packbacker]

Starting to think we are not going to see some deep cold locked in for chunks at a time this winter. More of 87 type winter, active, potentially snowy but not a frigid winter.

[Cold Rain]

Starting to think we are not going to see some deep cold locked in for chunks at a time this winter. More of 87 type winter, active, potentially snowy but not a frigid winter.

I wouldn't worry too much about that, Pack. Most of the maps that have been presented for Jan and Feb have lots of dark blues or purples over the SE. We're good. The Weeklies are probably just having trouble resolving the change to a much colder pattern.

[BullCityWx]

Starting to think we are not going to see some deep cold locked in for chunks at a time this winter. More of 87 type winter, active, potentially snowy but not a frigid winter.

 

if I have a choice, I'll always choose the cold locked in. Honestly, you can never have too cold of a pattern around here. 

[NCSNOW]

Good luck pack. I'm done with chasing the pattern, it's fun in Nov and Early Dec, but once we get a storm to chase, even if it's a long shot, all I focus on is the next chance, no matter the odds. Pattern chasing the negative ao, negative nao, +pna, weak west based nino e.t.c is a never ending quest to get all lined up just the way we prefer. Then you have the table set and guess what happens no storm and the fustration turns into what a waste of a great pattern, we can't even score with the perfect set up. So be of good cheer, even if, or better put when we whiff this Saturday we should have atleast a couple of more decent shots at accumulating snow before 2015 rolls in which is really all we can ask for