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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

LithiaWx

By LithiaWx,
in Southeastern States

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WidreMann

WidreMann

Posted
Posted

Well, last week everyone was saying we would look good around Christmas. Now we're saying wait another week. I don't like hearing that. I am trying to remain optimistic because there has never been this much consensus on the boards and other places from mets about having a big winter here. But it is gong to be hard to remain that way if we start playing the game of pushing it back a week every week.

I don't think there was ever any good evidence that we'd be in a good pattern by Christmas. Some people latched onto the idea of an early pattern change, but the models only offered lukewarm support for it. It was foolish optimism. The more reasonable folks knew that it wouldn't really be until January that we'd likely be in a good pattern.
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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

I like the look of the 6z GFS this morning. Doesn't show wintery precip for next weeks storm and it looks like cold chasing rain for Christmas; but it does show the pattern change at Christmas. It gets plenty cold for wintery threats from Christmas onward.  

 

Just for fun but also to show the pattern depiction here is hour 360:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_360_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=360&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141215+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

From Srain

 

"Christmas Week:

Third storm system appears to arrive 22-24 Dec with another shot for showers and thunderstorms. This storm system however appears to help buckle the upper air pattern with ridging building deep into Alaska and a large downstream trough carving out across much of the US. Bitter cold air mass currently in place over Siberia (-40 to -50F) may shift across the north pole and into NW Canada as the ridge builds into Alaska. This would place extremely cold Siberian air in place to be unleashed southward into the US following the early Christmas week storm system."

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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

Posted this in the Central/Western side a bit ago. Happy Holidays SE crew...

The global ensembles are suggesting an active pattern as multiple short waves embedded within fairly quick moving troughs off the Pacific traverse our Region into Christmas Eve. The next strong storm system arrives Wednesday into Friday bringing heavy mountain snow across New Mexico on Thursday and depending on the eventual track, heavy rainfall across portions of Texas into Louisiana. The 00Z OP Euro is the southern most tracking solution with the 5H closed low tracking across N Mexico, Del Rio and on E to Lufkin while the GFS suggests the upper low crossing NM, Childress and into NE Oklahoma on Friday. If the southern track were to verify, strong to possibly severe storms may be possible across Austin and Houston Friday. A more northern track would favor the Dallas/Shreveport area for stronger storms. This system has a bit more colder air to work with, so the dynamics appear a bit better for heavy rainfall.

An even stronger storm looks likely near Christmas Eve with even colder air in place as the pattern begins to transition. Being more than a week out it is too soon to speculate on the finer details with a wave currently over Eurasia heading E.

The longer range ensembles are in good agreement that a whole sale pattern change is ahead for the period between Christmas and New Years Day. It does appear we are transitioning to a +PDO/+PNA/-EPO/-AO and possibly a -NAO blocking pattern as we near the climatological favored coldest time of year for our Region as January 2015 begins.

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metwannabe

metwannabe

Posted
Posted

12z GFS bringing in the pattern change just after Christmas. Cold air dumping in around 288.

It's showing a step down pattern which it did yesterday dumping in the west first. Keeps going back and forth between solutions. Does not mean a hill of beans as we see the GFS can't even get a 5-7 day storm right much less a pattern changef

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
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I dont think we even get that cold until after new years. The Euro ENS control run last night even rebuilt heights in the SE and showed a potential mild end to the month. 

 

I don't know how much I trust that EPS control run. I would love to see the actual ENS to see what it has to say...but I think a safe bet probably is after new years. We see this a lot where the global models pick it up but it takes awhile to actually propagate down to us. 

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BullCityWx

BullCityWx

Posted
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I don't know how much I trust that EPS control run. I would love to see the actual ENS to see what it has to say...but I think a safe bet probably is after new years. We see this a lot where the global models pick it up but it takes awhile to actually propagate down to us. 

 

I think I'm just looking at it differently. It looks like we never get that cold here, just about seasonal. 

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
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From the wiffle waffle of the models going back and forth, changing solutions, whatever... it seems like they are having some very serious trouble for the pattern change timing.  In other words, I'm not so sure I believe any model output right now when it comes to where the cold air is going to be, much less storm tracks.

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

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From the wiffle waffle of the models going back and forth, changing solutions, whatever... it seems like they are having some very serious trouble for the pattern change timing.  In other words, I'm not so sure I believe any model output right now when it comes to where the cold air is going to be, much less storm tracks.

 

Agreed.  It seems like a question of when not if based on everything out there.  If it takes two more weeks so what, January is the perfect climo time to have a great pattern settle on in.  Actually you would have a hard time drawing up a better time for a pattern shift.

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nflwxman

nflwxman

Posted
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I agree with the above analysis.  The ENS at this point are a much better tool to "sense" any future pattern change than any individual op run.  At this point, it looks like it may be a cutter that initiates a pattern change, perhaps the 24-26th.  All ENS agree on a cold close to the year, which is extremely promising as the analogs go.

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

Agreed.  It seems like a question of when not if based on everything out there.  If it takes two more weeks so what, January is the perfect climo time to have a great pattern settle on in.  Actually you would have a hard time drawing up a better time for a pattern shift.

We'd really want to no later than the New Years time frame so it can get established and all the kinks worked out to not waste the first half of Jan with transient crap.  I personally believe with all the analogs thrown around that the models are just all around being horrible with the whole thing.

 

We've seen everything from a ridge to the ice age coming back into the Southeast over the last good while.  My gut tells me that the cold will crash in around New Years.  My common sense tells me to be prepared to wait a week or two after.  Analogs are about all we have to work with right now. 

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Yeah ensembles try and build heights over Greenland / Davis straits.

 

 

Yeah, I agree, the day 11-15 does start to get better as we approach the end of the year but I don't see a snow pattern yet, atleast for us non-mountain folks.  The cold is building in the west and trying to come east by end of the run.  Still going to take some time, I like CR's call of mid-January before we get to anything.   So just another 4 or 5 weeks.

 

eps_z500a_nh_61.png

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