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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

LithiaWx

By LithiaWx,
in Southeastern States

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted

I'm not sure to be honest...no one has questioned me about it either. I do know that Weatherbell does allow its subscribers to post them on Facebook, Twitter, etc...

 

Ryan Maue tweeted about a year ago that he prefers no one post Euro maps on social media because Europeans didn't want their maps to be public, but that was my interpretation of his tweet.

 

DT (WxRisk) got in trouble with him over that few months ago but...

 

I guess we're back to "gray area" now that even Maue posted ECMWF map once every few weeks or so.

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
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Well in case anyone was wondering, nothing crazy showing up on the Euro or GFS. Overall in the LR looks like a crap pattern for winter weather lovers although at 240 on the Euro it throws us a little bone. Still not sold on the pattern of a terrible pacific leading to above average temps in the LR. Very much reminds me of what the models were spitting out last year in the LR. Only time will tell. 

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted

I guess bitching about the lack of snow in November is what some do now. Sigh.

 

After living in NC for 5 years from Midwest, I'm just thankful we got 3-6 inches already in Western NC this early  :) That ULL set all-time record for the earliest 3+ inches event in 145 years of weather history in Asheville going back to 1869!

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Hey guys, I posted about this in the MA forum but figured I'd drop some thoughts. There's a bit of a model war with the global ensembles in the d10-15 range. GEFS wan't to go neutral to positive with the AO and also +EPO with low heights over and N of AK. Euro is showing a return of a -EPO look with ridging N of AK and a trend back towards negative with the AO as we approach and enter Dec. If the -epo/ao look starts to become more clear at least temps won't be a glaring flag as we move towards met winter. 

 

Dec is the big wildcard IMO and just about everyone elses this winter. Now that ensembles are in range for the beginning of the month we have much to worry about or get excited about...lol 

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Hey guys, I posted about this in the MA forum but figured I'd drop some thoughts. There's a bit of a model war with the global ensembles in the d10-15 range. GEFS wan't to go neutral to positive with the AO and also +EPO with low heights over and N of AK. Euro is showing a return of a -EPO look with ridging N of AK and a trend back towards negative with the AO as we approach and enter Dec. If the -epo/ao look starts to become more clear at least temps won't be a glaring flag as we move towards met winter. 

 

Dec is the big wildcard IMO and just about everyone elses this winter. Now that ensembles are in range for the beginning of the month we have much to worry about or get excited about...lol 

 

 Here are two good reasons (top SAI analogs that were also Nino) that I'm not worried about what may very well end up as a fairly neutral Nov AO:

 

2009: Oct. -1.540; Nov. +0.459

1976: Oct. -0.804; Nov. -0.087

 

Though not an SAI analog, 1969, a Nino/+PDO/potential winter -AO/-NAO analog had this for Nov. AO: +0.326.

 

 Also, even if the first half of Dec. were to be warm dominated (though I'm not saying I'm predicting that as of now), one of the best (if not the best) analogs, 1939-40, says bring on the early to mid Dec. warmth. In 1939, 12/1-19 averaged a whopping 4 F above normal in Atlanta. So, whereas a mild first half of Dec. wouldn't necessarily be desirable, 1939-40 certainly puts my mind at ease. 

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Yeah we got 1.15 of rain here today. Hopefully we can get some more over the next week or so. 

 

Good deal!  That ought to buy you a day or two.

 

The next week storm is looking pretty wet.  The 12z GFS destroys NC.  It would even suggest some light snow on the backside for western zones, if one just looks at the 850s.  I have no idea about the rest of the column, though.

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

 Here are two good reasons (top SAI analogs that were also Nino) that I'm not worried about what may very well end up as a fairly neutral Nov AO:

 

2009: Oct. -1.540; Nov. +0.459

1976: Oct. -0.804; Nov. -0.087

 

Though not an SAI analog, 1969, a Nino/+PDO/potential winter -AO/-NAO analog had this for Nov. AO: +0.326.

 

 Also, even if the first half of Dec. were to be warm dominated (though I'm not saying I'm predicting that as of now), one of the best (if not the best) analogs, 1939-40, says bring on the early to mid Dec. warmth. In 1939, 12/1-19 averaged a whopping 4 F above normal in Atlanta. So, whereas a mild first half of Dec. wouldn't necessarily be desirable, 1939-40 certainly puts my mind at ease. 

My mama and her college room mates when sledding on cafeteria trays during the big snow, down in Macon.  In midtown the driveway had drifts to challenge the Blizzard's work up along the Hooch.  That apparently was a doozy of a storm.  Got some pics of the drive, and the front of the house.  I think that's the one where my grandmother said the snow was up to the trolley steps up on Highland.  Big snow for midtown, probably an inch in the parallel universe you love at the airport, lol.  T

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

My mama and her college room mates when sledding on cafeteria trays during the big snow, down in Macon.  In midtown the driveway had drifts to challenge the Blizzard's work up along the Hooch.  That apparently was a doozy of a storm.  Got some pics of the drive, and the front of the house.  I think that's the one where my grandmother said the snow was up to the trolley steps up on Highland.  Big snow for midtown, probably an inch in the parallel universe you love at the airport, lol.  T

 

Tony/Folks,

 Are you talking about the great ATL (and much of the SE) snow of 1/23/1940? Downtown got 10" and even the worshipped airport got 8.3". Extreme cold followed during this, (still) the coldest month on record in Atlanta since (1879) (14F below normal!!!).

 

 Macon got 3.2" that month, which was all or nearly all from the great 1/23/1940 SE snowstorm. Of course, 3.2" is a lot for there ignoring 2/1973 and 2/1914.

 

 On 1/7/1940, ATL and many other nearby areas had a severe ZR. January of 1940 is easily among the greatest, if not THE greatest, winter months in ATL history with it being the coldest month on record, having one of the heaviest snows on record that stuck for many days afterward due to severe cold following it and lingering (there was also severe cold preceding it making the ground quite receptive), and having a severe ZR early. 1939-40 is one of the chief analogs for 2014-5. Again, 12/1-19 averaged 4 F above normal and the month as a whole was 1 F above normal. Then, 12/20-31 was a cold period that preceded the frigid 1/1940.

 

 Oct. of 1939 was mild (not unlike Oct. of 2014) and Nov. of 1939 was chilly (not unlike Nov. of 2014). That winter had a strong +PDO, strong -NAO, and strong -AO (all expected this winter). El Nino was very late starting, not unlike 2014. It was weak during much of the winter though it went toward moderate late. That was the start of a three year continuous Nino. Current models are suggesting a multiyear Nino is on the way fwiw.

 Nov. of 1939 had a pretty strongly +NAO. Nov. of 2014 is leaning toward a +NAO.

 

 The similarities are numerous and make 1939-40 an excellent analog imo. Don't fret if early Dec. turns out to be mild! If we get another 1939-40, this forum will become batshoot out of control come January.

 

**Edited several times

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

Tony/Folks,

 Are you talking about the great ATL (and much of the SE) snow of 1/23/1940? Downtown got 10" and even the worshipped airport got 8.3". Extreme cold followed during this, (still) the coldest month on record in Atlanta since (1879) (14F below normal!!!).

 

 Macon got 3.2" that month, which was all or nearly all from the great 1/23/1940 SE snowstorm. Of course, 3.2" is a lot for there ignoring 2/1973 and 2/1914.

 

 On 1/7/1940, ATL and many other nearby areas had a severe ZR. January of 1940 is easily among the greatest, if not THE greatest, winter months in ATL history with it being the coldest month on record, having one of the heaviest snows on record that stuck for many days afterward due to severe cold following it and lingering (there was also severe cold preceding it making the ground quite receptive), and having a severe ZR early. 1939-40 is one of the chief analogs for 2014-5. Again, 12/1-19 averaged 4 F above normal and the month as a whole was 1 F above normal. Then, 12/20-31 was a cold period that preceded the frigid 1/1940.

 

 Oct. of 1939 was mild (not unlike Oct. of 2014) and Nov. of 1939 was chilly (not unlike Nov. of 2014). That winter had a strong +PDO, strong -NAO, and strong -AO (all expected this winter). ENSO was very late starting, not unlike 2014. It was weak during much of the winter though it went toward moderate late. That was the start of a three year continuous Nino. Current models are suggesting a multiyear Nino is on the way fwiw.

 Nov. of 1939 had a pretty strongly +NAO. Nov. of 2014 is leaning toward a +NAO.

 

 The similarities are numerous and make 1939-40 an excellent analog imo. Don't fret if early Dec. turns out to be mild! If we get another 1939-40, this forum will become batshoot out of control come January.

 

**Edited several times

That's the one!  Make that zr a huge, big rogue sleet, and I'm on board with the analog.  Getting two really good storms one right after the other, is on my bucket list.  I've seen 3, two ok, and one real good, but two or three real good will take some cold air and a split stream lasting a few weeks most likely.  Got an analog for that?  I'm ready....the sleds in the underground lair being hot rodded, the moles are doing the pre winter mole thrum, and I've found a new hill to try.  Meanwhile, I had a 26, and two 27's and it's 42 now, so some cold air for Nov is about.  Just waiting on a disturbance to ride down and do a flurry dance over N Ga.  T

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deltadog03

deltadog03

Posted
Posted

I for one am excited about the pattern...YES there is no wintry weather threat on the horizon, but its not time yet...I want the pattern to relax a bit for the end of NOV.  Although I am not sure it does, it just might be weighted further to our WEST.  IF** that is the case, well guess what.....You see what the euro and gfs are showing for Sun/Mon?  Thats right, severe wx setup.  I am actually starting to think this one has huge potential 

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

Shoot, I'll take the maybe on the 29th for central Ga, you and me, and run with it, lol.  Looks like Tenn is going to get my N.Ga flurries on Wed. instead of us.  Oh, well, fair trade to get the 29th to verify, and I'd love to see that pattern get set.  Get the snow and sleet down here for a change...like I used to get in the 80's and 90's :)  It's about time for N.Central, and central Ga. to get the good stuff.  I've seen way deeper snow down here that I ever saw in Atl....but it's been a while.  Tony

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

I think November , in my opinion, will avg about 4 or 5 degrees below avg around GSP . The first few days were way below , now this cold snap. It's going to be hard to erase those negative numbers, even with a few 60 degree days. Avg high here is still 61 . Most of the crazy cold forecasts from the Almanac and a few forecasters had their predictions for Nov to be at 4-5 degrees below avg when all was said and done, looks like that could easily happen

Epic cold winter still on track!

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packfan98

packfan98

Posted
Posted

Here is Robert's scrolling headline on his website, wxsouth.com

 

"Reinforcing cold hits late week, then big Texas Storm. After that, Jet sags more and more, and Major Alaska blocking resumes..Turns cold , AGAIN! Another Set of Big Highs come down late Month. Models don't recognize Pattern, And Then Correct Themselves to Synoptics, Which will turn Extremely Wintery Soon...."

 

Sounds encouraging!

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Here is Robert's scrolling headline on his website, wxsouth.com

 

"Reinforcing cold hits late week, then big Texas Storm. After that, Jet sags more and more, and Major Alaska blocking resumes..Turns cold , AGAIN! Another Set of Big Highs come down late Month. Models don't recognize Pattern, And Then Correct Themselves to Synoptics, Which will turn Extremely Wintery Soon...."

 

Sounds encouraging!

 

That would be nice.  I haven't seen any models supporting this though...unless "soon" means later on in December.  The Euro D10 still looks about like what I posted yesterday.  After that (and even that far out), I don't have much confidence in the models to get the pattern right.  You could make the case that we're in transition and the models always do poorly during those periods.  You could make the case that the models are just going to be exceptionally bad this year, for whatever reason, in the LR.  But if the models are to be believed at all, I'm not seeing any of them, not the GFS, Euro, CFS, CMC or anything else (even what I've heard about the Euro weeklies) that make a case for a wintry pattern setting in soon.  It would be nice to start seeing this.  Anyway, I hope Robert is right.  Synoptics do matter, like he says.

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packbacker

packbacker

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Posted

That would be nice. I haven't seen any models supporting this though...unless "soon" means later on in December. The Euro D10 still looks about like what I posted yesterday. After that (and even that far out), I don't have much confidence in the models to get the pattern right. You could make the case that we're in transition and the models always do poorly during those periods. You could make the case that the models are just going to be exceptionally bad this year, for whatever reason, in the LR. But if the models are to be believed at all, I'm not seeing any of them, not the GFS, Euro, CFS, CMC or anything else (even what I've heard about the Euro weeklies) that make a case for a wintry pattern setting in soon. It would be nice to start seeing this. Anyway, I hope Robert is right. Synoptics do matter, like he says.

Agreed, the 11-15 on the Euro ENS look awful to start Dec. If it has that look to start Jan I will be curled up in the fetile position. But, Robert is obviously smarter than both of us.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

I think we have to accept that early December will be pretty mild. Of course, I believe that it will stay that way through the rest of the winter, due to the El Nino failing to have an impact, and the bad portents of such early cold. But we'll see.

 

Yeah, since I am so pessimistic on winter weather anyways I tend to agree with you but the background state of everything else says otherwise.

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