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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

LithiaWx

By LithiaWx,
in Southeastern States

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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
Posted

Are we still looking at this weekends storm setting the stage for the next two storms, at Christmas and after? I remember in years past where it seemed the models had a tough time figuring out what to do with the next storm until the first one was out of the way.

 

Maybe this will help:

 

#2036
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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Until that idea gets support from the GEFS I don't buy it

what do you mean specifically by the GEFS supporting that idea? IMO it already supports it. You man seeing that deep of an anomaly 384 hours out verbatim like the OP or what do you mean?

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

what do you mean specifically by the GEFS supporting that idea? IMO it already supports it. You man seeing that deep of an anomaly 384 hours out verbatim like the OP or what do you mean?

 

GEFS for the most part has centered the cold in the east around 276 or so vs. 384. There isn't really much of a centering of cold in the west like the runs today. By the way 18z GEFS looks much like the OP run in the LR...cold more oriented to the west. 

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

GEFS for the most part has centered the cold in the east around 276 or so vs. 384. There isn't really much of a centering of cold in the west like the runs today. By the way 18z GEFS looks much like the OP run in the LR...cold more oriented to the west.

But you can see at 384 how it's set to come east! :):axe:

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

But you can see at 384 how it's set to come east! :):axe:

 

It should be there by February.  If we have to sacrifice Jammin' January for Fab February, then so be it!  :yikes:

 

Okay, just joking, but it would be rather irritating to see the arrival of a better pattern to be pushed back behind the new New Year...  We were supposed to be prime by Christmas.  We'll see!

 

EDIT: Actually, looking at the 18z GEFS, it doesn't look bad at the end of the run.

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

GEFS for the most part has centered the cold in the east around 276 or so vs. 384. There isn't really much of a centering of cold in the west like the runs today. By the way 18z GEFS looks much like the OP run in the LR...cold more oriented to the west. 

Here's the 12z... To me it's not really a centering of cold in the west anyway if we're looking the same thing. Check out that ridge at 360 and the block, theres no way that cold isn't centered over the eastern half of the US. For being 360 hours out that's a damn strong ridge anomaly.

gA62hXO.png

 

Then 384...I don't know whats not to like here. 100% support in a cold and stormy pattern for the east coast.

fTRVVAr.png

 

The cold anomaly in the west is probably just the next ULL coming down our way.

 

 

Edit: Just saw the 18z ENS for the end of the run, whats wrong with that? I must be on drugs or something

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Jon, if we get that blocking over the top, it should help suppress heights in the east. But will it be there? That's the question. It really wasn't on the 18z. I don't really like seeing the ridge off the west coast. That doesn't usually fit well with a cold and snowy SE pattern.

Edit: I'm only talking about the Op. I have seen the ENS.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

It should be there by February. If we have to sacrifice Jammin' January for Fab February, then so be it! :yikes:

Okay, just joking, but it would be rather irritating to see the arrival of a better pattern to be pushed back behind the new New Year... We were supposed to be prime by Christmas. We'll see!

EDIT: Actually, looking at the 18z GEFS, it doesn't look bad at the end of the run.

I am seriously waiting to see a better pattern show up on the operationals inside of 240. I feel like we're getting closer to that every day and I keep expecting it to show up. Hopefully, it will soon.

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Here's the 12z... To me it's not really a centering of cold in the west anyway if we're looking the same thing. Check out that ridge at 360 and the block, theres no way that cold isn't centered over the eastern half of the US. For being 360 hours out that's a damn strong ridge anomaly.

 

 

Then 384...I don't know whats not to like here. 100% support in a cold and stormy pattern for the east coast.

 

The cold anomaly in the west is probably just the next ULL coming down our way.

 

 

Edit: Just saw the 18z ENS for the end of the run, whats wrong with that? I must be on drugs or something

 

 

Yea really I was just talking about the 18z and 6z from this morning. Also the EPS runs have been putting the cold in the west. Obviously the cold would move east so again for me it's not a huge deal as it looks like everything is setting up in place but you know we would all rather see it showing up at 240 vs. 384  :violin:

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted

Meh I think we will be ok. There is just a lot for the models to iron out. I really like the looks of the AO and the NAO going negative in the next week or so. I just think the models will waffle with such a big change in the northern 'hemisphere.  I think we will be ok and the models will get a better handle on the upcoming pattern change come this next week.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

I kind of feel like that's a more natural progression of the pattern. Not a big deal if we just wait one week for an amazing pattern.

  

Lol brick will love hear having to wait another

week

  

We always wait another week in the SE. Should be our motto.

Well, last week everyone was saying we would look good around Christmas. Now we're saying wait another week. I don't like hearing that. I am trying to remain optimistic because there has never been this much consensus on the boards and other places from mets about having a big winter here. But it is gong to be hard to remain that way if we start playing the game of pushing it back a week every week.

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POWERSTROKE

POWERSTROKE

Posted
Posted

Well, last week everyone was saying we would look good around Christmas. Now we're saying wait another week. I don't like hearing that. I am trying to remain optimistic because there has never been this much consensus on the boards and other places from mets about having a big winter here. But it is gong to be hard to remain that way if we start playing the game of pushing it back a week every week.

Brick you know around here never trust models. They change each run. We will be fine

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