Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

[burgertime]

Not liking the 00z and 6z runs of the GFS for our pattern change. Hopefully it's just a blip but it's had the tendency to keep the colder air more in the west leaving the SE kind of in the lurch. Again could be a blip and hopefully it turns it around later today. One thing we need is a Euro solution for the storm next weekend. If it can wrap up and head north we at least set up the table for something on Christmas....unlikely to happen but we can certainly dream. 

[South_MountainWX]

Gota have a little faith it might not snow when we want it too but a big one is lurking i think the se is long over do on something historic i just wonder what it felt like in 93 to track that storm.

[burgertime]

On a good note the ENS runs seem to not be faltering in the LR which sets my mind at ease. 

[FallsLake]

Not liking the 00z and 6z runs of the GFS for our pattern change. Hopefully it's just a blip but it's had the tendency to keep the colder air more in the west leaving the SE kind of in the lurch. Again could be a blip and hopefully it turns it around later today. One thing we need is a Euro solution for the storm next weekend. If it can wrap up and head north we at least set up the table for something on Christmas....unlikely to happen but we can certainly dream. 

The 6z is awful and would basically say what pattern flip. Depicts our current pattern staying put until the end of the year. The only bright spot is it looks just a little colder for the day 7 storm but still not cold enough for most.   

[burgertime]

The 6z is awful and would basically say what pattern flip. Depicts our current pattern staying put until the end of the year. The only bright spot is it looks just a little colder for the day 7 storm but still not cold enough for most.   

 

The 6z GEFS says the OP is probably on crack thank goodness. 

[GaWx]

Even if it ends up not real cold for the last week of Dec. in the SE (hard call right now): as long as it is somewhat colder than normal (high odds of that), the Cohen analogs as well as 1939-40 will be pretty much on track and would suggest a quite cold January since they're suggesting a step down pattern. So, we continue to look good and I'm as pumped as ever for the winter as a whole.

[WXinCanton]

6z GEFS at 240.  Not that bad of a look

 

[BullCityWx]

Not liking the 00z and 6z runs of the GFS for our pattern change. Hopefully it's just a blip but it's had the tendency to keep the colder air more in the west leaving the SE kind of in the lurch. Again could be a blip and hopefully it turns it around later today. One thing we need is a Euro solution for the storm next weekend. If it can wrap up and head north we at least set up the table for something on Christmas....unlikely to happen but we can certainly dream.

Euro ensemble control run said the cold air never gets here.

[griteater]

Looking at days 10-15, Euro Ens has the western ridging rather strong extending from the eastern Aleutians through Alaska into the Arctic - cold is centered more in the western and central states.  GFS Ens is a bit east of the Euro Ens with the western ridging, and the cold is more Rockies>east.  

[mackerel_sky]

Looking at days 10-15, Euro Ens has the western ridging rather strong extending from the eastern Aleutians through Alaska into the Arctic - cold is centered more in the western and central states. GFS Ens is a bit east of the Euro Ens with the western ridging, and the cold is more Rockies>east.

If we wait on this pattern change to commence around the 23rd or so , and all the cold dumps into the plains/Rockies , that would be a kick in the head.

[BullCityWx]

Looking at days 10-15, Euro Ens has the western ridging rather strong extending from the eastern Aleutians through Alaska into the Arctic - cold is centered more in the western and central states. GFS Ens is a bit east of the Euro Ens with the western ridging, and the cold is more Rockies>east.

I know that is what Allan is predicting. I'm not a fan of bleeding cold. Bleeding cold means no cold, 95% of the time.

[FallsLake]

The indices are still looking good in the LR. The one negative is the AO continues to build positive in the short range before diving at the end. The problem with this is the positive move is more probable that the LR dive (...which I'm still hopeful for).  

 

PNA - Looks to stay positive but slowly loss the higher numbers

AO - As stated above looks to dive to near or below negative in LR

NAO - Looks to fall to neutral of negative in LR.

 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

[Cold Rain]

So the change to cold in the east by mid January still on track or do we need to push that back? I agree on the "bleeding cold". Not a big fan of that. Can't wait to start seeing a bunch of cutters.

[mackerel_sky]

So the change to cold in the east by mid January still on track or do we need to push that back? I agree on the "bleeding cold". Not a big fan of that. Can't wait to start seeing a bunch of cutters.

Yeah, you haven't heard, it's coming! Valentines day 2015, polar vortex part deux

[Jon]

-NAO still on track most major models (I've included the CFS as well for the extra LR)...only outlier is canadian ensemble right now, which was negative on the 26th yesterday but stays positive/neutral through the LR today.

 

 

Last two runs of the GFS para has NAO diving for neutral/negative before Christmas probably more likely at or around the 25-26th like most models, just thought it was interesting.

 

Of course +PNA/-AO look to stay intact as well.

[GaWx]

So the change to cold in the east by mid January still on track or do we need to push that back? I agree on the "bleeding cold". Not a big fan of that. Can't wait to start seeing a bunch of cutters.

No change in anything. No need to push back. Even if this first cold were to be bleeding cold, that wouldn't necessarily mean that subsequent cold would be bleeding. Regardless, there's no reason to take the 6Z GFS' bleeding cold scenario literally at this point since only it and yesterday's 6Z GFS since yesterday didn't have the cold centered east of there. Also, the 6Z GEFS as well as at least the last four GEFS in a row have had the cold centered further east. In summation, there's no need to give too much weight to the 6Z GFS 11-15 as it is pretty much a GFS outlier as of now. Look how much it is flipping around. The prior run was cold and two runs ago had record cold.

Most importantly, believe the analogs and it shall come.

[burgertime]

Good news is on the 12z GFS it looks like the cold air is working it's way in before 300 hours on the OP. Not bad of a look around hour 240-252. 

[burgertime]

OP GFS has cold spilling in and centered on the west until around hour 324 as everything shifts east. Still game on. 

[burgertime]

lol GFS PARA close to a triple phased bomb for Christmas probably belongs in banter but it's very close.

 

 

[GaWx]

Unless one were to focus on the fantasy record cold of yesterday's 18Z GFS, one shouldn't be too disappointed in this 12Z run as it is colder in the SE than the mild 6Z in the 11-15. It does get cold around 12/28. The 12Z GFS has a really nice look at 500 mb. Lots of blocking above and to the NE. Pattern change on schedule based on the 12Z. All aboard!

[Webberweather53]

This December is evolving pretty much exactly expected for our current ENSO state, the North American temperature distribution this month is nearly verbatim of what is portrayed by the weak El Nino composite 

 

 

Fast forward to the next 2 months, January & February are quite frigid in the eastern US, which of course falls in line w/ what is being shown by various other methodologies...

[burgertime]

We end up with a big shift of everything and it the northern feature heads north, while the two southern features phase and lift off for Miller B bomb. There is a strong CAD signature at 240...but it's 240 so no point in thinking about it much other than just for fun. 

[GaWx]

Look at the absolutely beautiful blocking in the AO and, yes, the NAO positions on the 12Z GFS getting established by 12/26. I'll take that blocking anytime. By 12/28, the 500 mb look is awesome. Build the great blocking and the cold shall come . Full steam ahead on the pattern change. All aboard!

[Tacoma]

Look at the absolutely beautiful blocking in the AO and, yes, the NAO positions on the 12Z GFS getting established by 12/26. I'll take that blocking anytime. By 12/28, the 500 mb look is awesome. Build the great blocking and the cold shall come . Full steam ahead on the pattern change. All aboard!

  

[Cold Rain]

Look at the absolutely beautiful blocking in the AO and, yes, the NAO positions on the 12Z GFS getting established by 12/26. I'll take that blocking anytime. By 12/28, the 500 mb look is awesome. Build the great blocking and the cold shall come . Full steam ahead on the pattern change. All aboard!

That's good to hear. Thanks, Larry. Been in church all morning so haven't had a chance to look at the data. I was just reading on the way about how the trough looked to be more centered in the west, which was showing up a couple days ago. That type of look always makes me nervous because it usually leads to more fantasy SE cold and cutters than anything else.

[tnweathernut]

LC going for the trifecta evidently.......

[GaWx]

That's good to hear. Thanks, Larry. Been in church all morning so haven't had a chance to look at the data. I was just reading on the way about how the trough looked to be more centered in the west, which was showing up a couple days ago. That type of look always makes me nervous because it usually leads to more fantasy SE cold and cutters than anything else.

CR,

You ought to go to church more often if it is going to get 500 mb looks like that. Not just Sundays.

[Cold Rain]

CR,

You ought to go to church more often if it is going to get 500 mb looks like that. Not just Sundays.

Haha! Hopefully, we'll start to get that in the 5 day range soon.

[pcbjr]

donsutherland1 from the main thread:

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44807-winter-2014-2015-medium-term-discussion/?p=3188934 #174

[Scooter]

Are we still looking at this weekends storm setting the stage for the next two storms, at Christmas and after? I remember in years past where it seemed the models had a tough time figuring out what to do with the next storm until the first one was out of the way.