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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

LithiaWx

By LithiaWx,
in Southeastern States

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

they're extremely minimalistic and I'm jealous of them...they don't need to be fancy and you get all the data you want out of them basically. What is the file size of one frame from a model run showing 850s and mslp? JW

 

I have no clue how to get that raw data. The problem is you can't just right click and save. It's gotta be some where in the lower kb range though.

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

Guessing CPC didn't get the cold Christmas period memo...? ImageUploadedByTapatalk1418512090.834102.jpg

Lol! It's alot less torchy than it was looking a day or two ago when somebody posted the same map! Looks like it's slowly realizing the changes , the folks at cpc, that is! The 18z GFS was an amazing run!
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Webberweather53

Webberweather53

Posted
Posted

Holy crap...this belongs in the banter as this is the 18z GFS Op but wow, one can dream...

 

 

Hey that looks familiar...

 

That is exactly the kind of pattern you want to see if you're in the southern US... Large trough over southeastern Canada/northern US & Great Lakes, ridging over the top in Alaska & north-central Canada, w/ residual toughing hanging back in the Gulf of Alaska allowing pieces of energy to sneak underneath the western N America thumb projection block (as is the case in this model run). However details are obviously going to murky at this point, & *if* this pattern continues to show up a week or so from now, then maybe we can get excited. For now it's rightfully eye candy, but it doesn't differ too much from the various analogs I've looked at...

500mb preceding "classic" southern US/NC overrunning events/winter storms. I used Dec 1-2 2002, Dec 8-10 1958, Dec 19-21 1989, Feb 6-8 1973, Feb 22-24 2004, Feb 26-28 1980, Jan 6-8 2011, & Jan 26-28 2010

 

500mb-Preceding-Classic-Southern-US-Over

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Yep, looks like I'm heading to Pensacola for my first chase. :yikes:

We're getting there. 18z has record breaking fantasy snow for the panhandle of FL and coastal sections of GA and SC. Dat LR though.

Wow! The 18Z day 15 (mainly entertainment) has SN of 4-6" in the AYS/SSI/SAV/NBC/CHS corridor on 12/28. Just for the fun of it, the 5-6" at SAV would be the most there since March of 1837! That kind of low track (far south Miller A) in combo with a large, very cold Arctic high to the north and west is about the only way for that corridor to have a reasonable shot at snow like this. Plus with near record cold temp.'s following it, it would take at least a few days to melt.

Note how weak the low is while in the Gulf. Any modeled scenario that far out is obviously in the extremely tiny chance category of even coming close to verifying although it isn't absolutely impossible and it is illustrative of the very rare setup that is best for this rare event.

Edit: To give perspective, there is probably an average of at least 1-2 of these types of GFS runs for that corridor released far out in forecast time each non-mild winter. So, having a run like this one out 15 days is not too extraordinary. What would be extraordinary would be for something like this to verify. I've yet to see any of them like this verify since the last actual similar storm was in Dec. of 1989, which was well before just about all of us non-mets had access to any models.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

00z continues the big fantasy snow storm in the LR. 

 

 Yep, mainly for entertainment, it is on 12/27-8 and in much more climo favorable areas. So, instead of metal getting it, Candy's kitchen, Tony's abode, James' place, Brick's yard and all in between get some.

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tonysc

tonysc

Posted
Posted

The only fantasy storm from last year I remember was what turned out to be a lot of ice and sleet down into SC, parts of GA.  At first, it was a monster snow storm on the Euro if I remember correctly.  The 850s were good etc, but then we all see how that turned out as we got closer.

 

The best thing to take away from that one ridiculous model run of the Upgrade is to know that the cold is probably coming sooner than later and when everyone who was screaming torch.. starts to worry about cold air squashing a storm.. I guess we can say "told ya so".

 

These other storms just don't have a lot of cold air to work with right now.  That's why its so meh.. and we see the excitement even over a most likely cutter coming into the 21st.  Definitely looking forward to a good Jan-March.  This could be a  year of a big one that everyone gets in on.

 

The only fantasy storm from last year I remember was what turned out to be a lot of ice and sleet down into SC, parts of GA.  At first, it was a monster snow storm on the Euro if I remember correctly.  The 850s were good etc, but then we all see how that turned out as we got closer.

 

The best thing to take away from that one ridiculous model run of the Upgrade is to know that the cold is probably coming sooner than later and when everyone who was screaming torch.. starts to worry about cold air squashing a storm.. I guess we can say "told ya so".

 

These other storms just don't have a lot of cold air to work with right now.  That's why its so meh.. and we see the excitement even over a most likely cutter coming into the 21st.  Definitely looking forward to a good Jan-March.  This could be a  year of a big one that everyone gets in on.

Well we got big time snow and sleet here in the Greenville area of SC. So I have to say it turned out good for us. We did end up getting more sleet than they thought we would so that cut into our snow totals. Nevertheless it was the first time in my life that I've seen pretty heavy snow coming down three mornings in a row.

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

Well we got big time snow and sleet here in the Greenville area of SC. So I have to say it turned out good for us. We did end up getting more sleet than they thought we would so that cut into our snow totals. Nevertheless it was the first time in my life that I've seen pretty heavy snow coming down three mornings in a row.

I think I had my years confused hah.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

I think you're thinking of the same storm.  GSP was progged to get 12"+ of snow a day prior to the storm on the Euro, IIRC.  They ended up getting much less as sleet killed them, though it was still a major storm.

 

James,

 A good bit of sleet was expected at GSP. The Euro clowns were flat out wrong showing 12"+ in the first place. Same for ATL-AHN. They treated IP and ZR as SN! But as you said, it was still major. Still just as much liquid equiv. as if it had been SN.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

The 1989 coastal "beach" storm for the Carolinas and GA, was not memorable for me, I got zilch, but just shows you what super cold and suppression can do! It's probably safe to say Waycross will not get 3-6 as modeled, but stranger things have happened!

 

Well, he's no longer getting any. The 0Z GFS took metal's 200 year storm completely away. :( That's the end of that fantasy.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

James,

 A good bit of sleet was expected at GSP. The Euro clowns were flat out wrong showing 12"+ in the first place. Same for ATL-AHN. They treated IP and ZR as SN! But as you said, it was still major. Still just as much liquid equiv. as if it had been SN.

 

Ah, I guess I forgot.  My focus was more on MBY for that one and it worked out as well as it was supposed to here, more or less. :)

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JoMo

JoMo

Posted
Posted

Here's the much anticipated 'pattern change' showing up at Day 10. (actually happens a bit before this) It has been consistently showing up on/around Dec 23rd.

 

The troughing in the GOA that has been torching Canada has been replaced by ridging. Cold/Arctic air generation should start taking place across W Canada after this. Now how far South and east it gets and how quickly it gets there is still up in the air.

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

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