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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

LithiaWx

By LithiaWx,
in Southeastern States

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

Looking at 500 on the 12z Euro for the period just after next weekend's system at 240 shows a robust shortwave coming through northern Mexico with the northern branch diving in ahead of it with a -NAO in place.

A lot of IF'S, but IF the Euro's too slow tendencies with the southern branch are at play here, and IF the developing +PNA pops behind that shortwave, and IF the northern branch comes in similarly, but just behind this robust shortwave, Webber's map that he just posted about the period Dec 24-26 might make him look like a genius.

LOADED with potential here, even if next week leaves most sad.....IMO

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metwannabe

metwannabe

Posted
Posted

Looking at 500 on the 12z Euro for the period just after next weekend's system at 240 shows a robust shortwave coming through northern Mexico with the northern branch diving in ahead of it with a -NAO in place.

A lot of IF'S, but IF the Euro's too slow tendencies with the southern branch are at play here, and IF the developing +PNA pops behind that shortwave, and IF the northern branch comes in similarly, but just behind this robust shortwave, Webber's map that he just posted about the period Dec 24-26 might make him look like a genius.

LOADED with potential here, even if next week leaves most sad.....IMO

Yep many have been watching that week. Its loaded with potential no doubt

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Webberweather53

Webberweather53

Posted
Posted

Hey Webber, seeing a LOT of similarities in the 12z euro snow depiction (even if the algorithm is flawed) and the snow map from Dec 25-28, 1969 that you posted yesterday.

 

Yeah, I am as well, but I still think it's too far south & east with that storm next week, in fact, all major model guidance (even the ECMWF Ensembles were absolute trash on the track of the winter storm that's about to strike the northern Great Lakes & upper midwest. Just 4 days ago, the GFS, GFS Ensemble, & ECMWF were trying to bury the storm into the Gulf of Mexico... Womp...

ecmwf_T850_us_8.png

gfs-ens_mslp_uv850_us_28.png

 

 

 

The GEM & ECMWF ensembles were better, but still nothing to write home about in terms of verification

gem-ens_mslp_uv850_us_29.pngecmwf-ens_T850_us_8.png

 

Many should have immediately recognized how poor our snow coverage is in the US & knew something wasn't right w/ the edge of the snowpack way up into the midwest & Great Lakes (huge clue to where the next storm would go, if the pattern was going to attempt to reload once again)

nsm_depth_2014120905_National.jpg

 

Now, depending on what happens with the system next week, I could certainly see scenario that's at least somewhat similar Xmas 1966, but we need to let things sort out a bit before we iron out any details, but regardless IMO some sort of storm (liquid, frozen, etc.) will be on the table as we get close to Xmas in seeing the southern branch still remaining active despite the upcoming retraction in the Pacific Jet, which makes sense knowing there's usually an appreciable lag between the implementation of tropical forcing & the sensible weather observed here in the US...

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Webberweather53

Webberweather53

Posted
Posted

I agree, I am on board with The period from Christmas to New Years, and skeptical of next weekend, just thought the similarities were noticeable, and interesting.

 

 

Yep, that's exactly where I stand at the moment... the following system around Christmas has a much better shot, I just have a lot of trouble seeing any wintry wx south of I-40/I-64 with this storm next week outside of the mountains

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Webberweather53

Webberweather53

Posted
Posted

Yep, that's exactly where I stand at the moment... the following system around Christmas has a much better shot, I just have a lot of trouble seeing any wintry wx south of I-40/I-64 with this storm next week outside of the mountains

 

Technically, the more climo favored areas of the Texas & Oklahoma Panhandle counts as south of I-40/64, certainly a much better shot @ wintry wx there compared to central NC 

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Looks like the cold is starting to make it into the east by D15, though, on the European Ensemble Mean.

 

The blocking is great, but again, day 15 on the Euro-ENS things are coming together.  How many times have we written "day 15 looks great on the EPS" the past 2 weeks.  Will see, even if the Euro-ENS is right you would think the cold does move east eventually in early Jan.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

The blocking is great, but again, day 15 on the Euro-ENS things are coming together.  How many times have we written "day 15 looks great on the EPS" the past 2 weeks.  Will see, even if the Euro-ENS is right you would think the cold does move east eventually in early Jan.

 

Yeah, that's why I never get too hung up on LR patterns and prefer to concentrate on shorter-range more tangible storms (i.e. the 12/20-21 one), even if they are fantasy and likely won't work out.  Of course, the pattern will change at some point, and probably sooner rather than later (probably in the next couple weeks), but it's so difficult to forecast when.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Looks like the cold is starting to make it into the east by D15, though, on the European Ensemble Mean.

 

It's funny as JB is always ripping the GFS but when he tweets, all he tweets about is the GEFS in the 10+ day period, never the EPS as it dumps the cold in the west.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

ENSO areas are interesting, Nino 1-2 is cooling fairly well, Nino 3 is on fire and Nino 3.4 is moderating...wonder if we do get the "central pac" Nino in a few weeks.  I know Webber doesn't by the need for the central pac Nino though, I think.

 

Edit:  The +PDO looks great too.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Pack, the cold starts building in earnest in western canada around Christmas. Both the GEFS and EPS are setting up for a substantial cold air dump well before d15. By d15 the coldest air in the hemisphere (by far) is in Canada and the conus. And signs of blocked flow...

One caveat with the euro h5 pattern down the line is it resembles a northern stream dominant nina type pattern with split flow.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Pack, the cold starts building in earnest in western canada around Christmas. Both the GEFS and EPS are setting up for a substantial cold air dump well before d15. By d15 the coldest air in the hemisphere (by far) is in Canada and the conus. And signs of blocked flow...

One caveat with the euro h5 pattern down the line is it resembles a northern stream dominant nina type pattern with split flow.

 

Thanks Bob!  What are you looking at that indicates that? 

Edit:  I see the split flow but how can you determine it's nina/ns dominated.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Thanks Bob! What are you looking at that indicates that?

Edit: I see the split flow but how can you determine it's nina/ns dominated.

The polar jet is very nina like. That large height anomaly in the goa up through alaska is a nina staple. You wouldn't see big storms hitting the CA coast like were seeing right now with that pattern. NS disturbances would ride up and over the epo ridge and dive down from Canada. However, you can see the lower heights down by HI and the sag in the isobars underneath the GOA ridge. It would imply southern stream energy still making it to the gulf coast.
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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

This shows it pretty well. It's the 200mb jet panel. For the south and coast to get big storms, it would need to be a split stream phase and not a nice shortwave banging into CA and rolling across the conus. 

 

post-2035-0-14353100-1418508262_thumb.jp

 

 

I don't think we are flipping to a stable nina pattern though. It's just a heck of a lot different from what we are seeing right now. It changes what to look for. I would expect a more typical nino pattern to return down the line. It's a pretty interesting look. A cold one for sure 

 

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Yea SV has the fastest maps around. 

they're extremely minimalistic and I'm jealous of them...they don't need to be fancy and you get all the data you want out of them basically. What is the file size of one frame from a model run showing 850s and mslp? JW

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