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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

LithiaWx

By LithiaWx,
in Southeastern States

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

It was just one member of one ensemble group but the control run of the Euro showed an arctic outbreak on the way at the end of it's run.

 

I really like the LR we're seeing particle thickness getting down into the 400's coming into the US. A true sign the PV is dropping down for a real outbreak. Of course it's the LR so it might always be two weeks away. 

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
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I really like the LR we're seeing particle thickness getting down into the 400's coming into the US. A true sign the PV is dropping down for a real outbreak. Of course it's the LR so it might always be two weeks away. 

This should be more for banter but day 16 from the 6z GFS would depict a very cold start to the new year:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=384ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141213+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
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I may just still be sleepy. Or I may be plain wrong. But it seems to me the 6Z GFS is way warmer than what we were seeing yesterday. (Yes, it s only one run of one model, and yest it is the GFS, but aren't we looking for trends?).

 

Long range end of 6Z looks pretty warm - relatively speaking, and wet (to me anyway) in the lower SE quadrant:

 

post-180-0-97909100-1418479810_thumb.gif

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metwannabe

metwannabe

Posted
Posted

I may just still be sleepy. Or I may be plain wrong. But it seems to me the 6Z GFS is way warmer than what we were seeing yesterday. (Yes, it s only one run of one model, and yest it is the GFS, but aren't we looking for trends?).

Long range end of 6Z looks pretty warm - relatively speaking, and wet (to me anyway) in the lower SE quadrant:

2014121306_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_384.gif

It's an op run..... It's gonna look different . The GEFS still looks great

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

I may just still be sleepy. Or I may be plain wrong. But it seems to me the 6Z GFS is way warmer than what we were seeing yesterday. (Yes, it s only one run of one model, and yest it is the GFS, but aren't we looking for trends?).

 

Long range end of 6Z looks pretty warm - relatively speaking, and wet (to me anyway) in the lower SE quadrant:

 

attachicon.gif2014121306_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_384.gif

 

 

For our backyard yes it is....but in Canada and the central US it's much colder than some of the previous runs. Placement of cold is where you want it to be for an impending arctic outbreak. 

 

oTluMR7l.gif

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

I may just still be sleepy. Or I may be plain wrong. But it seems to me the 6Z GFS is way warmer than what we were seeing yesterday. (Yes, it s only one run of one model, and yest it is the GFS, but aren't we looking for trends?).

Long range end of 6Z looks pretty warm - relatively speaking, and wet (to me anyway) in the lower SE quadrant:

2014121306_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_384.gif

#1 and #2 are correct
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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

12z GFS says "hello winter" the day after Christmas for much of the US. Something about this just looks off though from 300 on....I think the GFS is having some trouble trying get a grip on the real pattern change coming. Just looks wonky at the surface.

This would be pretty similar to late Dec. 1939, an analog that continues to be a nice guide. If this continues guiding well, look out for a cold and stormy Jan for the SE with the realistic potential for a memorable month. In other words, the colder change for the country in late dec. would probably be just a hint of what is to come soon thereafter...just the tip of the iceberg.
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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

After seeing the GFS PARA run out past 300

 

 

 

Has crazy cold air for the US and a big time major fantasy snow @384 for the entire SE. 

Yeah. IT'S HAPPENING!!!!!! Pattern change incoming. Can't wait to see what the 25th+ has in store for us and especially January. LR seasonal models have not let up and we're seeing some amazing fantasy storms and I remember last year we couldn't even buy a fantasy storm. Hold on it's gonna be a wild ride, looking forward to some late night PBPs!

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Shawn

Shawn

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Yeah. IT'S HAPPENING!!!!!! Pattern change incoming. Can't wait to see what the 25th+ has in store for us and especially January. LR seasonal models have not let up and were seeing some amazing fantasy storms and I remember last year we couldn't even buy a fantasy storm. Hold on it's gonna be a wild ride, looking forward to some late night PBPs!

The only fantasy storm from last year I remember was what turned out to be a lot of ice and sleet down into SC, parts of GA.  At first, it was a monster snow storm on the Euro if I remember correctly.  The 850s were good etc, but then we all see how that turned out as we got closer.

 

The best thing to take away from that one ridiculous model run of the Upgrade is to know that the cold is probably coming sooner than later and when everyone who was screaming torch.. starts to worry about cold air squashing a storm.. I guess we can say "told ya so".

 

These other storms just don't have a lot of cold air to work with right now.  That's why its so meh.. and we see the excitement even over a most likely cutter coming into the 21st.  Definitely looking forward to a good Jan-March.  This could be a  year of a big one that everyone gets in on.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

2013-14 was a great winter for much of GA/SC/NC wintry precip wise. Plus, there were lots of things to track. 2012-13 was the one with virtually nothing to even track. I think there may be some confusion.

Anyone have a link to the para GFS? TIA

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

2013-14 was a great winter for much of GA/SC/NC wintry precip wise. Plus, there were lots of things to track. 2012-13 was the one with virtually nothing to even track. I think there may be some confusion.

Anyone have a link to the para GFS? TIA

 

It's free on the model center right now.  It's the best place I've seen for graphics for it.

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

2013-14 was a great winter for much of GA/SC/NC wintry precip wise. Plus, there were lots of things to track. 2012-13 was the one with virtually nothing to even track. I think there may be some confusion.

Anyone have a link to the para GFS? TIA

Yeah true. I guess that storm on 2/16/13 for NC where the flakes were like feathers was confusing me about the overall winter, but yeah you're right just off the top of my head we got close to 7" in Buies Creek, NC from one storm last year but it was mixed with sleet/etc.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

2013-14 was a great winter for much of GA/SC/NC wintry precip wise. Plus, there were lots of things to track. 2012-13 was the one with virtually nothing to even track. I think there may be some confusion.

Anyone have a link to the para GFS? TIA

 

2013-2014 was awful until mid-January, but it was the best late January/February/March that I can remember.  Non-stop threats, more or less, from mid-January until late March, and nearly 15" of snow to show for it (close to 200% of climo).  Our first accumulating snowfall wasn't until January 21st!)

 

2012-2013 was pretty awful.  The only storm of note was the ULL in mid-January (which worked out well here, but screwed most).  There was also an event in February, but it was just snow showers during the day with temperatures above freezing, which rarely ends well as far as accumulations.  We did get some daytime sleet with temperatures around 35 in early April, though, which was cool.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

GFS PARA just before Christmas. Of course it looses it's resolution and creates a biblical flood with snow in the mountains after this. Figure since it's the PARA this map should be ok. Mods feel free to delete if not.

qSPdgzY.png

Mainly for entertainment but that looks like a major ZR for the cad areas as modeled for 12/23. Then it is followed by a major SN on 12/29 as noted by Shawn. Dang, that week would be one of the best weeks one could ever get in that part of the SE and enough to make it a great winter then and there for many regardless of what would follow. Interestingly, that shows two major ATL winter storms in late Dec, one being SN. ATL hasn't had a major SN or IP in Dec. since 1917! So, overdue is putting it mildly! ATL got 4 major SN/IP 1880-1917 and not one since! Even the last major ATL Dec. ZR was all the way back in the 1960's. But, alas, these details are just fun fantasy right now.

Note how weak is the modeled 12/29 major snow's Miller A low: 1014 mb, which is the typical weak low while still in the GoM that leads to most of the big Miller A SE snows.

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Webberweather53

Webberweather53

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GFS PARA just before Christmas. Of course it looses it's resolution and creates a biblical flood with snow in the mountains after this. Figure since it's the PARA this map should be ok. Mods feel free to delete if not. 

 

qSPdgzY.png

 

 

I love when the pattern hits the reset button & begins to charge back southeastward like this, makes forecasting IMO just a little bit easier. In this case, because our snowpack across the northern tier at the moment is dismal at best, we're definitely going to have make significant headway to restore it before we can start worrying about wintry weather in the southeastern US. Fresh snowpack w/ high albedo will naturally cool the surrounding airmass, raises the surface pressures & literally tends to block oncoming storms & it's at the interface or usually at the southeastern edge, where there's a natural induction of baroclinicity w/ strong temperature & pressure gradients that mid-latitude cyclones prefer to track... This first storm hitting the upper midwest is setting the table for the storm next week, which should put down snow just to the south & east of it.. I made this map (which is an over-generalization to be honest, but you get the general idea), given the length of lead time we're talking here @ this point beyond next week, I just shaded everyone along/north of I-20 purely out of uncertainty & I'll let the details work themselves out with time. However, this pattern is already starting to reload this week & as we continue to put down snowpack in the northern tier, any arctic air masses that happen to infiltrate into the east-central US, especially as this pattern begins to change as the +ENSO forcing goes away for a while, it will effectively be refrigerated.

We shall see how this plays out, I'm definitely northwest of most major model guidance at the moment & that's not a bad move considering how even the ECMWF was forced to correct northward with the winter storm that's about to hit the upper midwest & northern Great Lakes...

US-storm-predictions-mid-late-December-2

 

I didn't do too bad late last January (I posted this picture on the 29th last winter if I'm correct) by playing to the southeast of a burgeoning snowpack & was even able to hint at the winter storm that ran across the southern US the 2nd week of February. Certainly wasn't perfect by any means but it caught the general pattern, which is the entire premise of even putting something like that together in the first place...

Early-mid-Feb-US-pattern.jpg

 

I really like the agreement I'm seeing between my warm Neutral-Weak Hybrid El Nino analogs, Mike Ventrice's EVPM MJO (ENSO-Velocity Potential MJO) 0-30 day analogs & the combined/weighted November SST, SLP, & 500mb tropical tidbits analogs for January. The retraction of the Pacific Jet working in phase w/ a strong CCKW propagating through the eastern hemisphere should allow appreciable blocking to get going over the EPO/PNA regions in the longer term & promote a more La Nina-ish pattern that's also in compliance with what I've shown here numerous times regarding the US monthly temperature distribution with respect to +ENSO intensity/placement...

analogs_monthly_z500.png

 

Eric-Tropicaltidbits-Mike-Ventrice-VPM-E

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