Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

[FLO]

Just pulling a few random cities for entertainments sake: 

Atlanta and Columbia would be all cold rain with Columbia being the closest to seeing anything(I think they achieve 33 and rain).

We have a 11 days to drop those temps a tad. I believe.

[BullCityWx]

We have a 11 days to drop those temps a tad. I believe.

 

It's probably more realistic to believe you live in Columbia. Just saying. 

[packbacker]

The Euro ENS are just a torch at 2m/850 in days 11-15, it's focusing the trough in the west, not the east.  

 

Not saying it's right or wrong, just stating what it shows.  It's very cold in the west and cold does return to Canada so that's a plus.

 

Edit:  The west coast ridge is hundreds of miles out in the pacific which is why.

[BullCityWx]

The Euro ENS are just a torch at 2m/850 in days 11-15, it's focusing the trough in the west, not the east.  

 

Not saying it's right or wrong, just stating what it shows.  It's very cold in the west and cold does return to Canada so that's a plus.

 

huh. I'm wondering if it's burying that bowling ball in the SW like it's known to do. 

[packbacker]

huh. I'm wondering if it's burying that bowling ball in the SW like it's known to do. 

 

Looking at it further, the west coast ridge isn't on the west coast, it's hundreds of miles west of where we want it.  I didn't look at the 0z run so not sure if this occurred last night.

 

Edit:  Verbatim, Xmas day is pleasant, temps in the upper 50's to low 60's.

[Cold Rain]

Prepare for a sucky run of the Weeklies then. Maybe it'll show something favorable by week 4...again.

[packbacker]

Prepare for a sucky run of the Weeklies then. Maybe it'll show something favorable by week 4...again.

 

I am sure I am wrong, pattern change is coming Xmas week, get your snow shovels ready. 

[griteater]

Pack - I think it looks pretty good overall in the 10 day + range.  -AO look and negative anomalies are moving east out of Greenland.  Western trough / SE ridge look is probably a lower chance scenario right now.

[RONALD B]

Looking at it further, the west coast ridge isn't on the west coast, it's hundreds of miles west of where we want it.  I didn't look at the 0z run so not sure if this occurred last night.

 

Edit:  Verbatim, Xmas day is pleasant, temps in the upper 50's to low 60's.

lol makes little sense really with a postive pna like  we seen. my take is the euro does a poor job with thease moderate strong pna patterns we seen this already, plus the west nao is looking neg in the  long run on all the data i have seen ,includeing the ensemebles, but much much more on the cmc ensembles !

[packbacker]

Pack - I think it looks pretty good overall in the 10 day + range.  -AO look and negative anomalies are moving east out of Greenland.  Western trough / SE ridge look is probably a lower chance scenario right now.

 

I agree, just talking about what it was showing, which is a big change from previous runs.   CMC-ENS showing the same thing though, but they are both probably wrong.

 

[deltadog03]

We will always walk the tightrope when it comes to wintry weather in the SE.  Just how we roll.  I am not saying lets buy all the store supplies now, but lets keep an eye on this period.  EURO kind of has an EXCELLENT track record.  This is just beyond that period though.  I will say this tho, at least its getting closer in time frame, and not just always D10 kind of a thing.

[nflwxman]

Seeing these bowling balls and short wavelengths is asking for a good storm once the cold filters in. The 50/50 low is the key to lock in HP overhead to inject enough cold air in east of the mtns and keep the ULL on a southern track.

 

Exactly.  This 21st storm certainly has a bit of a fantasy "thread the needle" aspect to it.  However, one has to like the pattern moving forward in a broader sense. The cold air is starting to show up on the ENS around the 24th, so while it's possible this first one will end up being rain (if not likely), it could act as a 50/50 for the next storm up for the AO- begins to flex.  I see the proverbial "deck" being stacked in our favor after the 23rd, everything else this far out is just details.  The 21st storm would be a huge huge bonus.  Let's test our luck.

 

 

Haven't seen a SJS like this in years.  It's nice to see, rain or snow.

[Jon]

Why are we looking at the end of the ensembles shouldn't we be looking at 240 on the ensembles to try to justify the ULL placement? Just my $0.02 don't get ahead of ourselves here I'm guessing those last frames will continue to change since we are approaching mid month and a pattern change. I'm going to focus on whether or not that ULL is a pipe dream then go from there. haha

[burgertime]

We will always walk the tightrope when it comes to wintry weather in the SE.  Just how we roll.  I am not saying lets buy all the store supplies now, but lets keep an eye on this period.  EURO kind of has an EXCELLENT track record.  This is just beyond that period though.  I will say this tho, at least its getting closer in time frame, and not just always D10 kind of a thing.

 

I like the fact that pretty much all models are picking up on something around that time. Add in the fact that the Canadian was on board as well. Wild card as you said is of course if there will be enough cold air associated with it. This really reminds me of the Christmas storm a few years back. Very close to the same setup IIRC. 

[LithiaWx]

Why are we looking at the end of the ensembles shouldn't we be looking at 240 on the ensembles to try to justify the ULL placement? Just my $0.02 don't get ahead of ourselves here I'm guessing those last frames will continue to change since we are approaching mid month and a pattern change. I'm going to focus on whether or not that ULL is a pipe dream then go from there. haha

Looks like some signal on the ensembles

[Bob Chill]

Pack, I wouldn't sweat it all all. The means could be just agreeing on more pac energy coming in at that point in time so the lowest heights centered west. It's certainly not a trough west/ridge east.

All guidance is moving towards a -AO and possibly -nao down the line. Look at the epo ridge on that panel and the low heights in the goa are completely gone. It's a good look.

[burgertime]

Why are we looking at the end of the ensembles shouldn't we be looking at 240 on the ensembles to try to justify the ULL placement? Just my $0.02 don't get ahead of ourselves here I'm guessing those last frames will continue to change since we are approaching mid month and a pattern change. I'm going to focus on whether or not that ULL is a pipe dream then go from there. haha

 

Don't think it really matters either way to be honest. The broad pattern says something is going to roll through that time period. Most likely it will be rain, but as others said we might be able to eek out a miracle. I think either way timing in it self is super suspect that far out. You can probably bet it will be a few days late or a few days early. 

[RONALD B]

Why are we looking at the end of the ensembles shouldn't we be looking at 240 on the ensembles to try to justify the ULL placement? Just my $0.02 don't get ahead of ourselves here I'm guessing those last frames will continue to change since we are approaching mid month and a pattern change. I'm going to focus on whether or not that ULL is a pipe dream then go from there. haha

the euro ensembels like normal has a weak low there in the same spot!   I have said before the ensembels this far out want show a big low yet but could trend too one in time ?

[metwannabe]

Don't think it really matters either way to be honest. The broad pattern says something is going to roll through that time period. Most likely it will be rain, but as others said we might be able to eek out a miracle. I think either way timing in it self is super suspect that far out. You can probably bet it will be a few days late or a few days early.

I'm much more interested in the christmas week period vs the storm around the 20th.... It's a wave train

[burgertime]

I'm much more interested in the christmas week period vs the storm around the 20th.... It's a wave train

 

Yea that's something that has peeked my interest for sure the last few days. The pattern just screams that there is enough cold air and a low rolling through to create something fun for folks in the SE. Who knows where we will be a week from now but I'm starting to get pretty excited about that week of Christmas. I just had a feeling we had a good shot at a Christmas storm a month ago and I hope I'm right. 

[Jon]

I'm much more interested in the christmas week period vs the storm around the 20th.... It's a wave train

Everyone is keeping an eye on that week because it's Christmas. Haha. I too, hope we cash in then rather than 5 days before trust me.

Also, thanks for then replies everyone. I'm on my cell so I can't look at models/respond properly but appreciate the responses!

[metwannabe]

Everyone is keeping an eye on that week because it's Christmas. Haha. I too, hope we cash in then rather than 5 days before trust me.

It's not because it's christmas week for me. Just happens to be. By the time christmas week rolls along the ridge out west will be established and it will be much easier to tap cold air vs the storm next weekend. It legitimately is a much better period vs next weekend

[Jon]

It's not because it's christmas week for me. Just happens to be. By the time christmas week rolls along the ridge out west will be established and it will be much easier to tap cold air vs the storm next weekend. It legitimately is a much better period vs next weekend

I agree. I honestly can't wait to see what Jan holds once we know what we are dealing with. I want to see the -AO get low get low.

[GaWx]

Per the new euro weeklies: pattern change still on course. Though the AO is modestly negative earlier, it is solidly negative week 4. Also, week4 shows a developing -NAO, the best news of all. So, really nice blocking for 1/5-11. . 2 meter temp.'s are colder than average week 4.

[pcbjr]

So is week 4 the 2nd week of Jan?

[GaWx]

So is week 4 the 2nd week of Jan?

 

1/5-11.

[Cold Rain]

1/5-11.

That's good to hear for sure. A couple of weeks ago, weeks 3 and 4 were looking below average, if I remember the recap of them correctly. I was hoping that we'd have a solid below average look at weeks 3 and 4, pushing into week 2 by now. Maybe next week. Anyway, thanks for keeping us up to date with them.

[pcbjr]

1/5-11.

 

 

Thanks!

 

Wasn't sure when you said, "So, really nice blocking for 1/5-11. . 2 meter temp.'s are colder than average week 4." you were referring to 1/5 -11, or the following week.

 

Glad we're not pushing back further into the future! 

[GaWx]

 The 18z GEFS is back to being great looking like the 6Z, 0Z, and 18Z of yesterday after an only good looking 12Z. This run actually has a 1030ish Arctic high coming out of Canada into the NW US on 12/25 and then plunging on down. That's a pretty strong signal for two weeks out. Preceding that big show is an initial cooldown for much of the country 12/22-3. The only SE torchy days are between 12/15 and 12/17.

[franklin NCwx]

Remember guys the pna comes first. Then we slowly push +heights north up into Canada. Patience!