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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

LithiaWx

By LithiaWx,
in Southeastern States

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deltadog03

deltadog03

Posted
Posted

EURO is throwing warning shots for next weekend.  Looks like it could be a miller A/B hybrid.  Also, nice high to the north, not the strongest, but in a good position.  IMO op run looks to far north.  My guess* it would be further south, but at least something is showing up. 

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Yeah this one would be tight for sure. Could end up being just cold enough. Good track and nice HP placement. But source air is not all that cold. VA and the mountains look pretty good, actually. For areas east and south of there, we're definitely going to need to see a better cold air feed.

Edit: The ULL has enough cold associated with it. Not sure about surface temps, though.

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deltadog03

deltadog03

Posted
Posted

12z Euro is a nasty winter storm. Here is a close up. Not ready to buy yet but on table. By the way model page is free through Sunday with 20% off through Monday.

Thanks Allan for that.  I agree, not ready to pull the trigger, but shots have been ordered and fired.  I actually think this could trend south.  

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deltadog03

deltadog03

Posted
Posted

Or you want it to trend south so it's a better solution for you? haha, why do you say it could trend south?

nah, I would highly doubt this is my storm for my viewing area.  There is a little big of a block in the "50/50" low postion.  Not super strong, but it would force this south.  ie, that setup no lakes cutter.  at least not for now.

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TeleConnectSnow

TeleConnectSnow

Posted
Posted

nah, I would highly doubt this is my storm for my viewing area.  There is a little big of a block in the "50/50" low postion.  Not super strong, but it would force this south.  ie, that setup no lakes cutter.  at least not for now.

Thanks for the response, a very mature comment. Unlike some of these guys saying I called you out? Jeez the hostility 

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

I post on all different forums. There is no rule against that. I am asking why it might trend south, I am alright anyways already had 4 days with accumulating snow up here. Hope you guys get yours, but you will before the season is out.

Models not seeing strength of cold air? They have been too warm alot lately! Remember the torch we are in now!?
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deltadog03

deltadog03

Posted
Posted

The air would be cold enough.  Not brutal cold, no...but def. cold enough.  Thats a pretty healthy ULL as well.  We will see, but this should start generating some "buzz"

 

edit:  The euro is actually really cold at 2m.  35-40 by sat am down into NE GA and blelow freezing at 2m from the upstate and all of NC from what I can tell.  I will have more when I get to work.  I will post it on twitter and FB as well.    @wxmanchris   on twitter    and   Wxmanchris   on my FB page.  Hang on folks, I think this could be a legit threat.  

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

The air would be cold enough.  Not brutal cold, no...but def. cold enough.  Thats a pretty healthy ULL as well.  We will see, but this should start generating some "buzz"

 

edit:  The euro is actually really cold at 2m.  35-40 by sat am down into NE GA and blelow freezing at 2m from the upstate and all of NC from what I can tell.  I will have more when I get to work.  I will post it on twitter and FB as well.    @wxmanchris   on twitter    and   Wxmanchris   on my FB page.  Hang on folks, I think this could be a legit threat.

Glad you posted about surface temps. I don't know if you can see Euro 2m temps for free, but I was wondering about those. Thanks sir!

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BullCityWx

BullCityWx

Posted
Posted

Glad you posted about surface temps. I don't know if you can see Euro 2m temps for free, but I was wondering about those. Thanks sir!

 

Just looking at the extracted stuff from the euro, it looks sleety for here and raleigh. 

 

Actually, I take that back. RDU looks more snow. probably the less as you head south and east toward garner and such. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

The tricky part of the euro is the handling of the first storm has to be right because without it there is nothing to stop hp from retreating like all runs leading up to this one. I sure hope it's onto something. The 50/50 feature is the key for just about everyone up and down the coast (except far N) to score something on this one.

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_9.png

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oconeexman

oconeexman

Posted
Posted

The air would be cold enough. Not brutal cold, no...but def. cold enough. Thats a pretty healthy ULL as well. We will see, but this should start generating some "buzz"

edit: The euro is actually really cold at 2m. 35-40 by sat am down into NE GA and blelow freezing at 2m from the upstate and all of NC from what I can tell. I will have more when I get to work. I will post it on twitter and FB as well. @wxmanchris on twitter and Wxmanchris on my FB page. Hang on folks, I think this could be a legit threat.

A near perfect set up for nw sc and ne ga right now. Glad to have something to track this early!
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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Just looking at the extracted stuff from the euro, it looks sleety for here and raleigh. 

 

Actually, I take that back. RDU looks more snow. probably the less as you head south and east toward garner and such. 

Sweet. I'm sure you know no need to dissect p-types this far out but good to know...I need to know where to draw the line on WxBell snow maps for future reference. haha. Still, fun to be looking at a threat now let's see if any other models pick up on it and I'm sure more than a handful are staying up for the 00z Euro tonight. I told people not to give up on December until mid month dang it.

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BullCityWx

BullCityWx

Posted
Posted

Sweet. I'm sure you know no need to dissect p-types this far out but good to know...I need to know where to draw the line on WxBell snow maps for future reference. haha. Still, fun to be looking at a threat now let's see if any other models pick up on it and I'm sure more than a handful are staying up for the 00z Euro tonight. I told people not to give up on December until mid month dang it.

 

yeah, it's just a general idea. I look at all this like training camp for the real deal that might show up in January. 

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Hvward

Hvward

Posted
Posted

12z Euro verbatim for Asheville has 2m temps sub 30 through hr 240 with 11.3" of snow at KAVL and all of Buncombe co. +10".  The 50/50 needs to be perfect and like Bob said it is all about how the Euro handles the first storm.  I love the look of it though it is a WNC weenie storm for sure and would bring great joy to me haha.  Lets hope it trends colder but this would be a mess up here. Snows of sub 27 temps and windy roads make for many days stuck at home for most.  

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

The tricky part of the euro is the handling of the first storm has to be right because without it there is nothing to stop hp from retreating like all runs leading up to this one. I sure hope it's onto something. The 50/50 feature is the key for just about everyone up and down the coast (except far N) to score something on this one.

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_9.png

 

Closed ridge in SW Canada with downstream 50/50 low, and big suppressed southern streamer underneath...it's likely fools gold, but that's a money setup down south - love the closed ridge look.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Just looking at the extracted stuff from the euro, it looks sleety for here and raleigh. 

 

Actually, I take that back. RDU looks more snow. probably the less as you head south and east toward garner and such.

Thanks man. I live just south of Garner, so at 10 days out, it's not ideal for me. :)

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

yeah, it's just a general idea. I look at all this like training camp for the real deal that might show up in January. 

Keep it coming man I didn't mean to say to stop. I don't have access to soundings for the Euro so whenever you're willing to provide, please do!

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Closed ridge in SW Canada with downstream 50/50 low, and big suppressed southern streamer underneath...it's likely fools gold, but that's a money setup down south - love the closed ridge look.

 

Fools gold for now...haha

 

Agree, it's truly maximizing a pretty hostile pattern. I love a good ull pass. They always surprise somebody. If track and strength like that were to happen somebody down your way would probably report +tssn on the n-w side of that bowling ball. 

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