Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

[superjames1992]

Burger, do you get that out to 394? It only goes out to 240 on Tropical Tidbits. Good to finally see some weenie Op runs.

 

The Parallel looks a lot closer to the Euro/CMC than to the regular GFS, FWIW.

[burgertime]

Burger, do you get that out to 394? It only goes out to 240 on Tropical Tidbits. Good to finally see some weenie Op runs.

Yea mine goes to 384 after 300 it looks fantastic for NC

[franklin NCwx]

Euro ensembles have miller a day 10

[superjames1992]

Yea mine goes to 384 after 300 it looks fantastic for NC

 

It sucks that Weatherbell only has them out to hr 240.  I'm missing out on some quality model porn.

 

Then again, maybe that's a good thing.

[Cold Rain]

Thanks guys!

[JoMo]

The NCEP Parallel GFS goes out to 384 here:

 

http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/

[Cold Rain]

The NCEP Parallel GFS goes out to 384 here:

http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/

JoMo, that's just good thinking right there! It never even occurs to me to go to that site lol!

[GaWx]

The 18z gefs looks similarly delicious to the 12z gefs 12/23-26. Yummy for the tummy if you love the taste of cold.

[WxBlue]

The 18z gefs looks similarly delicious to the 12z gefs 12/23-26. Yummy for the tummy if you love the taste of cold.

 

Not that it really matters much 10+ days out, but 18z GEFS trough look deeper than the one at 12z on Christmas morning just by eyeballing Ohio Valley region. The last few runs are trending toward the right direction, that's for sure!

[GaWx]

Not that it really matters much 10+ days out, but 18z GEFS trough look deeper than the one at 12z on Christmas morning just by eyeballing Ohio Valley region. The last few runs are trending toward the right direction, that's for sure!

I see that. Now if we could just get the +NAO to at least transition to go neutral, a solid cold dominated pattern could really get established. The Cohen, Webber, Griteater, 1939-40, etc., analogs give me confidence that that will occur by no later than early January with a -NAO regime beginning to take over. We'll see. It has been pointed out that we need to get rid of the very stubborn Icelandic low to allow for that.

[Bob Chill]

The 18z gefs looks similarly delicious to the 12z gefs 12/23-26. Yummy for the tummy if you love the taste of cold.

With that kind of amplification there's definitely a chance for folks in the se. Today's trends have been pretty encouraging for at least having a chance.

[GaWx]

With that kind of amplification there's definitely a chance for folks in the se. Today's trends have been pretty encouraging for at least having a chance.

Hey Bob. Do you have a feel for when that stubborn Icelandic low will finally weaken substantially and allow for a -NAO to get going?

[Bob Chill]

Hey Bob. Do you have a feel for when that stubborn Icelandic low will finally weaken substantially and allow for a -NAO to get going?

Not really. I've grown to expect the nao to be positive after the last 3 years.

I would imagine if we can get a stable -ao going it could simply expand southeastward for a west based look. I don't think the -nao will result from higher heights pressing from the Atlantic. Just a total wag though. It's been quite elusive for a long time now. I suppose we can use the trusty WD index at this point. Haha

[packbacker]

Talk about a white unicorn...it's been brutal trying to get a winter seasonal -NAO.  Good news is we should see the NAO predominately negative for the next 25-30 years, if you believe in cycles.  I think it starts this year  .

 

 

[RONALD B]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/542847795448004608/photo/1 maybe the warming will help for jan .

[griteater]

Alaska AND all of the lower 48 in the CPC warm shades...yikes

 

[RONALD B]

Alaska AND all of the lower 48 in the CPC warm shades...yikes

 

yeah there track record for the long range has been good huh ?https://www.facebook.com/notes/wxriskcom/winter-is-over-not/787096241337636

[griteater]

yeah there track record for the long range has been good huh ?

 

[mackerel_sky]

Those maps just look off, but it is gonna be above average, I believe between the 14-19th or so, before the real cold arrives.

[GaWx]

The 18z gefs looks similarly delicious to the 12z gefs 12/23-26. Yummy for the tummy if you love the taste of cold.

 

The 0z GEFS is the 3rd really delicious looking GEFS run in a row for ~12/23-6.

[superjames1992]

Dr. No has an Apps Runner for the D10 "storm", FWIW.

[DaculaWeather]

Anyone remember?

http://www.weather.gov/ilm/ChristmasSnow1989

 

[franklin NCwx]

Dr. No has an Apps Runner for the D10 "storm", FWIW.

the ensembles are not as enthused as the op. Keeps the energy much farther south and weak.

[burgertime]

If the GFS OP and ENS guidance is to be believed it is going to get cold and wet after Christmas. That's the good news. Hell the 00z OP had the PV dropping down about to come into the US which is the first time that's been shown in a long time. The bad news is the Euro doesn't quite seem to be on board yet. 

[nchighcountrywx]

This discussed by Bastardishows some hope

[Bob Chill]

Larry, both the gefs and eps last night and even moreso with the 6z gefs has the icelandic low weaking and higher heights building over greenland. If that trend continues along with the amplifying ridge in western canada we will likely be tracking a lot of stuff during the holiday week. I have the week off so my pupils will likely turn square from staring at a monitor.

 

The long range keeps looking tastier as time moves forward. And the transition is locked in to the 5 days leading to Christmas.

 

[Jon]

This discussed by Bastardishows some hope

Interesting he's talking up those CFSv2 maps...there have been runs where during the same time period the SE has been completely covered almost in blue and NC has been in brown (look at the scale to see what that means) but yeah, there's been more impressive snow map runs than those.

[Bob Chill]

Pack, the euro is speeding things up. Compare these 2 panels. 

 

0z from the 10th @ 360

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014121000/nh/eps_z500a_nh_61.png

 

0z last night @ 336

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014121100/nh/eps_z500a_nh_57.png

 

Do the same thing @ 300 and 276. The sw is a tad slower but the ridging behind is building quicker and the aleutian low is further west with last night's run than the one 24 hours ago. Imho- the pattern transition has moved forward in time more than back. Even moreso on the GEFS. 

 

The sucky part is we have to endure the next week or so. 

[packbacker]

Pack, the euro is speeding things up. Compare these 2 panels. 

 

0z from the 10th @ 360

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014121000/nh/eps_z500a_nh_61.png

 

0z last night @ 336

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014121100/nh/eps_z500a_nh_57.png

 

Do the same thing @ 300 and 276. The sw is a tad slower but the ridging behind is building quicker and the aleutian low is further west with last night's run than the one 24 hours ago. Imho- the pattern transition has moved forward in time more than back. Even moreso on the GEFS. 

 

The sucky part is we have to endure the next week or so. 

 

Thanks Bob!  I know, it's going to take some patience, which I suck at.  Weeklies should be interesting as it has a great day 15 to build on.

[Bob Chill]

Thanks Bob!  I know, it's going to take some patience, which I suck at.  Weeklies should be interesting as it has a great day 15 to build on.

 

Weeklies have done well with the transition away from the crap we're in considering how difficult it is to get 10 days right. They had the right idea about how things would progress this month. I'm interested too. I want to see signs that we can continue building towards a more classic nino blocking pattern. If the weeklies regress things I'll probably need to buy a new computer.