Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

[LithiaWx]

Cold air can never be in short supply. Marginal systems rarely, if ever, work out in this area.

A suppressed track actually favors areas like GA and SC. I would imagine it favors areas like Charlotte as well. Marginal cold usually means rain or front end snow changing to rain for my area as well.

[franklin NCwx]

No it wasn't, I've been bullish about this winter all along like most people. I'm still optimistic but it's obviously my opinion that we are getting a late start.

a late start? With how cold and snowy November was.

[DaculaWeather]

A suppressed track actually favors areas like GA and SC. I would imagine it favors areas like Charlotte as well. Marginal cold usually means rain or front end snow changing to rain for my area as well.

We had marginal last January 24th, and we all know how that turned out.

[Cold Rain]

Everybody will feel better when a better pattern and a cold Canada starts showing up inside 7 or 8 days or so. A SSW can help, but it's not at all the only way to get the pattern cold. Everybody that's not a weenie understands that. We can certainly have a snowstorm with marginal cold available, but obviously the odds are lower.

It's clearly going to be a while before we get the coldest anomalies on this side of the globe and have a good pattern in place. "A while" might mean 2-4 weeks. Maybe a SSW kicks that off. Maybe not. Maybe the analoged pattern progression gets us there. Doesn't really matter as long as we get there.

Some are anxiously awaiting the coldest anomalies to return to our side of the hemisphere. I am one of those. Some are waiting for something to track and maintain that we don't need that kind of cold to get snow. I am one of those too. The odds are just lower. The former is going to take a while. The latter will happen sooner. Whether or not it pans out is another story.

Meanwhile, there's no torch going on here.

There's not that much to argue about, really, in the end.

[LithiaWx]

Everybody will feel better when a better pattern and a cold Canada starts showing up inside 7 or 8 days or so. A SSW can help, but it's not at all the only way to get the pattern cold. Everybody that's not a weenie understands that. We can certainly have a snowstorm with marginal cold available, but obviously the odds are lower.

It's clearly going to be a while before we get the coldest anomalies on this side of the globe and have a good pattern in place. "A while" might mean 2-4 weeks. Maybe a SSW kicks that off. Maybe not. Maybe the analoged pattern progression gets us there. Doesn't really matter as long as we get there.

Some are anxiously awaiting the coldest anomalies to return to our side of the hemisphere. I am one of those. Some are waiting for something to track and maintain that we don't need that kind of cold to get snow. I am one of those too. The odds are just lower. The former is going to take a while. The latter will happen sooner. Whether or not it pans out is another story.

Meanwhile, there's no torch going on here.

There's not that much to argue about, really, in the end.

 

Can always count on level headed CR to make a great post.

[BullCityWx]

But you understand what he's saying. Too much cold will suppress the storm track, too much cold is fine after the storm. We always walk that fine line between the cold and the moisture.

 

I mean, I understand what he's saying but so much has to go right for it to even snow here. Right now, the pattern is neither cold nor snow friendly. It doesn't appear to get much better for the next 10 days. I mean, we're certainly not going to torch like last December but much like last December, the pattern for the foreseeable future looks downright hostile to cold and snow chances. 

[burgertime]

GFS is trying hard to give us a big fantasy Christmas snow.

[Cold Rain]

Can always count on level headed CR to make a great post.

Lol level headed until the pattern change keeps getting pushed back indefinitely! If we get through Feb and winter has just been ho hum or bad, I'm just going to lose it and go off. But I don't really anticipate that.

[franklin NCwx]

Everybody will feel better when a better pattern and a cold Canada starts showing up inside 7 or 8 days or so. A SSW can help, but it's not at all the only way to get the pattern cold. Everybody that's not a weenie understands that. We can certainly have a snowstorm with marginal cold available, but obviously the odds are lower.

It's clearly going to be a while before we get the coldest anomalies on this side of the globe and have a good pattern in place. "A while" might mean 2-4 weeks. Maybe a SSW kicks that off. Maybe not. Maybe the analoged pattern progression gets us there. Doesn't really matter as long as we get there.

Some are anxiously awaiting the coldest anomalies to return to our side of the hemisphere. I am one of those. Some are waiting for something to track and maintain that we don't need that kind of cold to get snow. I am one of those too. The odds are just lower. The former is going to take a while. The latter will happen sooner. Whether or not it pans out is another story.

Meanwhile, there's no torch going on here.

There's not that much to argue about, really, in the end.

Canada is not very warm. Besides, true arctic outbreaks come from Siberia transported via a negative epo/ao.

[FallsLake]

Not sure where the 12z GFS is heading but it has some differences at hour 192 compared to 204 at 6z:

 

12z

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=189ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_189_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141210+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

 

6z

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=204ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_204_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141210+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

[Cold Rain]

Canada is not very warm. Besides, true arctic outbreaks come from Siberia transported via a negative epo/ao.

Don't disagree at all. In fact, I've said that very thing in the past. Also, Bob correctly pointed out that you don't need CP flow to get Canada very cold. All I was saying is that lots of folks will feel better when the darkest blues in the NH are on our side of the globe. That's all. But clearly we don't have to have that to be cold enough for snow. We do if we wanna make Brick happy with record cold though.

[Webberweather53]

Why? We don't have to have the PV on our side to lock in cold. In fact the PV can cause a suppressed pattern . I don't want the PV on our side. Last ridge bridge will do just fine in tapping cold air. Our best storms come from marginal cold not arctic air

 

The pattern is already suppressed as it is w/ the predominant Gulf of Alaska/Aleutian low pressure gyre forcing height rises & rex blocking over east-central North America over top of an amplifying subtropical jet... A suppressed storm track isn't a bad thing for the southeastern US if @ all...

 

The winter of 1972-73 is a classical example of suppression & El Nino winter behavior in general w/ the "worst" of the winter coming later, especially in February... The least snowiest winter on record since at least the late 19th century for Washington DC, Baltimore, & NYC, yet we see this in the southeast in mid February...

 

. How many times in years past have we seen signs of strat warming only to see it not Pan out. Depending on a SSW is a huge red flag IMO because they are not a must

 

A lot.  Doesn't;t mean jack for this one but every year it seems we are waiting on the mythical SSW events to take place.  It's also usually a pretty good sign we are currently fooked when the subject is brought up.

I actually agree with this, the SSW is a unicorn....a mythical creature meant to toy with our emotions in Jan/Feb.  Usually it's a terrible sign when it's the focus of the pattern watch. 

 

However this year my hope lies in the great analogs that many have posted.  It seems like the exact situation we're in CALLS for a strat warming (maybe not SSW) to take place.  How else do we go from cool/average Dec to the COLD blocky pattern of the anologs without one?? It seems like it's the only way we're going to make the heights raise over the pole and get our analoged -AO/NAO. 

 

However if this winter doesn't pan out...I will add analogs to my list of useless crap not to pay attention to. 

 

There are also cases where SSWEs don't lead to cold in the eastern US, however, every SSWE in an El Nino winter (2009-10, 2004-05, 2002-03, 1994-95, 1991-92, 1986-87, 1982-83) since the beginning of the satellite record when accurate record keeping of the stratosphere commenced, has been followed by generally cold & stormier than normal conditions in the eastern US. This has to do w/ the resistance to the cold provided by in part by the PDO, w/ a -PDO generally featuring a stronger than normal Aleutian Ridge/weaker Siberian High upstream which acts to put a relative cap on tropospheric upwelling & PV disruption, OTH, the warm PDO we're currently with a robust Aleutian Low, will essentially keep the pressure on the polar vortex as it invites Rossby waves to deposit easterly momentum & decelerate polar night jet that envelopes the polar vortex...

 

 

The warm phase of the PDO tends to favor a warmer stratosphere...

 

 

Warm PDO DJF regressed 500mb, note the strong Aleutian/Gulf of Alaskan Low.

 

Looks familiar doesn't it?

 

 

Given the information we can conclude that the PDO is a regulator of upwelling into the stratosphere & thus it also significantly influences the QBO, especially on interdecadal/ decadal timescales...

 

Monthly time series of the JISAO PDO-QBO anomaly w/ 125 month smoothing (Red=QBO, Blue=PDO)

The current smoothed QBO anomaly is currently nearing all-time lows in terms of the strength of it's negative (easterly) phase, which generally is favorable for a -AO/SSWEs (of course low solar never hurts in -QBO) because it strengthens the "critical" line for cross-equatorial Rossby Wave propagation, hence confining them more so in the winter hemisphere ..

 

Cold (-)PDO regressed October 500mb vs top 10 SCE & SAI Octobers... they are opposite pattern. This research & the connections to SSWEs are certainly quite far from being what you erroneously termed as "mythical", perhaps if you would actually take it upon yourself to have a closer look into SSWEs & the physical drivers behind them, they wouldn't seem like such a "mythical creature" after all...

[franklin NCwx]

Don't disagree at all. In fact, I've said that very thing in the past. Also, Bob correctly pointed out that you don't need CP flow to get Canada very cold. All I was saying is that lots of folks will feel better when the darkest blues in the NH are on our side of the globe. That's all. But clearly we don't have to have that to be cold enough for snow. We do if we wanna make Brick happy with record cold though.

this looks pretty good! Would like some help from the nao but I think we have to wait until jan,Feb for that.

[Cold Rain]

^ Not bad. Now let's get that to 180.

[Bob Chill]

All guidance across the board has ridging popping the the west and up through western canada in the wake of the shortwave that hits the west coast somewhere in the 18-20th range. And that (so far) isn't moving back in time. The big question is it a transient ridge and continuation of a less amplified pattern for the east or is is going to become a more classic +pna/-epo? If the ridging become stable then that is a true pattern change that will have a big impact on weather patterns in the east.

It first showed up 2-3 days ago and ops and ensembles have generally stuck to the idea. By the end of this week the pattern change argument will be resolved for better or for worse.

[burgertime]

canadian is a crippling ice storm at the end of its run. Like destruction ice storm.

[burgertime]

Closer look at the CMC shows what would be more of a sleet snow mix for WNC and ZR for my backyard. Ten days away though.

[franklin NCwx]

Closer look at the CMC shows what would be more of a sleet snow mix for WNC and ZR for my backyard. Ten days away though.

time for cold rain to bring us another white Christmas.

[mackerel_sky]

Closer look at the CMC shows what would be more of a sleet snow mix for WNC and ZR for my backyard. Ten days away though.

Has the Canadian ever been the first to pick up on a storm , and then the GFS and Euro come around?

[Cold Rain]

time for cold rain to bring us another white Christmas.

Hmmmmm....

[deltadog03]

I think that Christmas week storm is going to have to be REALLY watched.  Temps will be iffy, but something showing up around there, and there is some model support makes me think thats possible right before the pattern really changes.  

[Webberweather53]

Has the Canadian ever been the first to pick up on a storm , and then the GFS and Euro come around?

 

The ECMWF was all over it yesterday, so the CMC isn't alone, but I don't even want to talk about specific scenarios (esp. winter storms) @ this muddled range. The general idea here as I've been at least hinting @ if not bluntly stating for the past several days is because of CCKW passage & Pac MJO progression, the subtropical jet is going to be really juiced up for the next 10 days or so. Beyond this time period we may see the subtropical/Pacific jet let off the gas pedal & retract, as a CCKW forces the mean signal in upward motion w/ in the equatorial forcing to shift back into the Indian Ocean & Maritime Continent...

[GaWx]

Holy sheet!! Get a load of the 12Z GEFS around Christmas. Talk about a pattern change! This is the coldest late week 2 run yet.

 

Hint: if this verifies closely, wow! Now that's quite a western ridge/eastern trough couplet!

[RONALD B]

this looks pretty good! Would like some help from the nao but I think we have to wait until jan,Feb for that.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_61.png

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/542739048532807680/photo/1

[franklin NCwx]

What a strong signal on the 12z gefs!

[Shawn]

 

The winter of 1972-73 is a classical example of suppression & El Nino winter behavior in general w/ the "worst" of the winter coming later, especially in February... The least snowiest winter on record since at least the late 19th century for Washington DC, Baltimore, & NYC, yet we see this in the southeast in mid February...

 

 

If my data is correct, here in KCAE the 1973 record snow storm in this state.. here were what the high temps looked like:

 

Feb 1, 70F

Feb 2, 70F

Feb 3, 55F

Feb 4, 64F

Feb 5, 68F

Feb 6, 68F

Feb 7, 54F

Feb 8, 64F

Feb 9, 48F - snow later on

Feb 10, 32F heavy heavy snow.

 

After those dates, we went to around normal or mainly above normal through the rest of the month.  If these #s are correct, that means we went from +8F above average to 32 and the biggest snow we ever saw within 48 hours.  We started the month +10 above average.

 

Edit: the snow wasn't forecast.  goes to show that marginal things/changes happen that even the models won't grab onto until it's too late.  Now, back then modeling wasn't what we have today.. but we all remember the crusher I believe.. that hit SC/NC... ETA really messed that up

[RONALD B]

Euro has a southern bowling ball cut off low be nice if this reapeats just like oct except this could be more exciting ?Talking about repeat pattern's this could be a oct repeat with nov coming back all overagain cold jan likely ?

[JoMo]

Euro has a southern bowling ball cut off low be nice if this reapeats just like oct except this could be more exciting ?Talking about repeat pattern's this could be a oct repeat with nov coming back all overagain cold jan likely ?

 

If you're a believer in 'cycles', like one of the local meteorologists in my area, then you can expect the Nov cold to come back around towards mid-Jan or so. He says we are on a 62 day cycle this year. So, we'll see. 

[franklin NCwx]

Man that's a strong wave on the euro. Too bad it's the 10 day op.

[RONALD B]

If you're a believer in 'cycles', like one of the local meteorologists in my area, then you can expect the Nov cold to come back around towards mid-Jan or so. He says we are on a 62 day cycle this year. So, we'll see. 

Yes i think patterns can reapeat but don't get me wrong am not one of those LRC nuts cause there are many things that can throw that off so !