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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

LithiaWx

By LithiaWx,
in Southeastern States

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Fwiw (mainly entertainment and the record), the 0Z 11-16 GFS still has the pattern change. Merry Christmas to all and to all a good night unless you're staying up for the good doctor.

 

Edit: More importantly though less entertainingly, the 0Z GEFS says the pattern change is still a go and "on time".

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Looking at the model data last night it's hard not to think someone in the SE will get wintry precip between Dec 20th - 28th. It just screams for it. Would not be surprised to see the models trend colder as we get closer to that time period. Euro and CMC had the best look, especially the Euro. Big wildcard is of course that it's 10 days away lol. 

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Looking at the model data last night it's hard not to think someone in the SE will get wintry precip between Dec 20th - 28th. It just screams for it. Would not be surprised to see the models trend colder as we get closer to that time period. Euro and CMC had the best look, especially the Euro. Big wildcard is of course that it's 10 days away lol. 

Even the 6z GFS looks good right before Christmas (cold front passage with some kind of system in S. Texas). Verbatim it would then have a lake cutter. But at this point we're just looking for the general setup.  

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=312ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_312_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141210+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

Even the 6z GFS looks good right before Christmas (cold front passage with some kind of system in S. Texas). Verbatim it would then have a lake cutter. But at this point we're just looking for the general setup.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=312ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_312_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141210+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

Sadly, I think we need a strong lakes cutter to bring the cold air down for the pattern change?
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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Sadly, I think we need a strong lakes cutter to bring the cold air down for the pattern change?

 

A big pattern change yes. However there is enough cold air lingering around that we just need some energy to help tap it and pull it down. Again would not surprise me if it trends colder. While there isn't super cold air to the north it could be just enough Usual caveat about if's and buts. 

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Sadly, I think we need a strong lakes cutter to bring the cold air down for the pattern change?

That's kind of what the GFS depicts at the end of the run (..again not looking at any details but general pattern setup):

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=384&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141210+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Is the pattern change holding stationary in time or is it getting closer in the modeling?

 

Comparing the Euro ENS mean from 15 days ago to what latest 15 day ENS mean which is for Xmas...is there that much difference.  Until we get this inside 10 days, I am not going to believe it anymore.  This might be a case where ensembles constantly try but never get there.  I think Dec is toast...

post-2311-0-17427700-1418219332_thumb.pn

post-2311-0-86037200-1418219333_thumb.pn

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Thanks Pack. That's what I was afraid of and have been concerned about and why I am thinking more mid Jan before the Great pattern emerges. Patience is required. Even so, there will probably still be opportunities to close out the month and ring in the new year!

Widre has a good point above. Be interesting to see what would happen if the stratosphere doesn't end up cooperating. We could be in this same spot come Jan. The warming of the stratosphere is moving along, seems to want to really get going after the 20th. The next few weeks are going to be really boring, but with the distractions of the holidays it shouldn't be to bad.

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metwannabe

metwannabe

Posted
Posted

Widre has a good point above. Be interesting to see what would happen if the stratosphere doesn't end up cooperating. We could be in this same spot come Jan. The warming of the stratosphere is moving along, seems to want to really get going after the 20th. The next few weeks are going to be really boring, but with the distractions of the holidays it shouldn't be to bad.

First of all we don't have to have a strat warming event to get a -AO which has been well documented here numerous times. So if you counting on a SSW to have a good winter your wasting your time as it's not a 100% necessary. Does it help , well of course but we don't HAVE to have it.

Secondly if you think a parade of southern storms with marginal cold air around is boring then you should find a new hobby. We all know that we most likely won't see anything wintry before christmas but it's the fun of watching

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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

Posted
Posted

The models seem to be getting closer and closer with more ridging in Alaska and Canada...but it doesn't really seem to be modeled to affect our sensible weather IMO. The Aleutian Low is getting where it needs to be I think and there's more ridging but it's not strong, and there's no ridging over greenland.  Most of it is still modeled over central canada/northern US. I haven't seen any model show any greenland blocking.  Overall there's just nothing really exciting anywhere.  It's better...but meh. 

 

I too think we're going to be in to January before true cold hits and real threats appear.

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metwannabe

metwannabe

Posted
Posted

I'm going to need the PV to come back over from Siberia and Canada to get cold, sustained cold for 10 days or so, before I'll even consider any threat here. I refuse to chase my own tail with these "threats".

Why? We don't have to have the PV on our side to lock in cold. In fact the PV can cause a suppressed pattern . I don't want the PV on our side. Last ridge bridge will do just fine in tapping cold air. Our best storms come from marginal cold not arctic air

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

And my point was the stratosphere cooperating is not a necessity. How many times in years past have we seen signs strat warming only to see it not Pam out. Depending on a SSW is a huge red flag IMO because they are not a must

 

Don't disagree, but our chances are much better with one.  We had a SSW in 02/03, 09/10, 12/13, just to name a few very cold winters. Granted 12/13 wasn't cold till Feb but the SSW occurred in early Feb.  I need to look at GaWx's list in a little more detail.  CWG had a good article on this, I need to go find it.

 

Darlington might be able to get good snow events in marginal cold but in the rest of central NC we need a solid cold air feed.  We don't need the PV to drop over the lakes like last year but I do agree with you that a solid -EPO with a -AO/-NAO would do just fine.

 

I am still very bullish on Jan/Feb, never waned on that.  Just to remind people what I posted yesterday...

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44856-winter-2014-2015-pattern-discussion-thread-i/page-44#entry3179912

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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

Posted
Posted

A lot.  Doesn't;t mean jack for this one but every year it seems we are waiting on the mythical SSW events to take place.  It's also usually a pretty good sign we are currently fooked when the subject is brought up.

 

I actually agree with this, the SSW is a unicorn....a mythical creature meant to toy with our emotions in Jan/Feb.  Usually it's a terrible sign when it's the focus of the pattern watch. 

 

However this year my hope lies in the great analogs that many have posted.  It seems like the exact situation we're in CALLS for a strat warming (maybe not SSW) to take place.  How else do we go from cool/average Dec to the COLD blocky pattern of the Jan/Feb anologs without one?? It seems like it's the only way we're going to make the heights raise over the pole and get our analoged -AO/NAO. 

 

However if this winter doesn't pan out...I will add analogs to my list of useless crap not to pay attention to. 

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BullCityWx

BullCityWx

Posted
Posted

Why? We don't have to have the PV on our side to lock in cold. In fact the PV can cause a suppressed pattern . I don't want the PV on our side. Last ridge bridge will do just fine in tapping cold air. Our best storms come from marginal cold not arctic air

 

Cold air can never be in short supply. Marginal systems rarely, if ever, work out in this area. 

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Batman

Batman

Posted
Posted

The discussion this morning has me scratching my had a little bit. You would think we are looking at 75 and sunny every day for the foreseeable future listening to some of the comments. It is cold outside this morning with a biting wind. We will be about 10 degrees below normal today. No it is not a "snow pattern" but, I have seen MANY Decembers where we would beg for a week like this week temp wise. I guess for some, if there are no snow storms on the horizon, the pattern sucks. Folks are certainly entitled to that opinion, it's just not mine.

I remember a lot of doom and gloom here on this board last winter with folks on the edge of the cliff, canceling winter right up until Christmas when all of the sudden the reality of what was about to happen became obvious to all. With the parade of storms about to cross the country, I would say anybody that is real confident on how things will play out is being very bold.

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

Cold air can never be in short supply. Marginal systems rarely, if ever, work out in this area. 

But you understand what he's saying. Too much cold will suppress the storm track, too much cold is fine after the storm. We always walk that fine line between the cold and the moisture.

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