Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

[Shawn]

Why is anyone even looking for snow the next ten days. We don't have a chance in hell until the pattern change. Marginal marginal air right. I'm much more focused on the pattern change

 

I think for the most part, we just want to see the pattern flip.  There are a couple storms involved of course.. which leads some to I guess, hope?  I don't see how the first two could do anything, but one rolling around right at the pattern flip would be nice for some.

 

Christmas has a storm signal (probably little if any Winter weather in the SE) and by the modeling of recent, there seems to be a fun time ahead after that.

[Jon]

Why is anyone even looking for snow the next ten days. We don't have a chance in hell until the pattern change. Marginal marginal air right. I'm much more focused on the pattern change

It more or less illustrates a pattern change is coming. When we start seeing gulf tapped storms ride up the coast and bomb off of NC on the models, when all we saw was a death ridge not too long ago, it cements in place the models are starting to sniff storms out and with a look like that, no matter if it's the 300+ hours on a GFS OP run, it's still there and it's still showing up. Hence, pattern change. I agree with you though, I look at 500mb patterns in the northern hemi first thing with ensembles for the long range but one thing is becoming clear, if a look like that happens later in the month we could be cashing in. Forget the date stamp and imagine the same flow but with more cold, then what do you have? You should expect from now until mid month and especially in mid month models will start spitting out fantasy storms in under 10 days the closer we get to Christmas and the new year.

[FallsLake]

It more or less illustrates a pattern change is coming. When we start seeing gulf tapped storms ride up the coast and bomb off of NC on the models, when all we saw was a death ridge not too long ago, it cements in place the models are starting to sniff storms out and with a look like that, no matter if it's the 300+ hours on a GFS OP run, it's still there and it's still showing up. Hence, pattern change. I agree with you though, I look at 500mb patterns in the northern hemi first thing with ensembles for the long range but one thing is becoming clear, if a look like that happens later in the month we could be cashing in. Forget the date stamp and imagine the same flow but with more cold, then what do you have? You should expect from now until mid month and especially in mid month models will start spitting out fantasy storms in under 10 days the closer we get to Christmas and the new year.

I agree Jon. Already seeing the fantasy storms showing up. Just for fun here's the 12z GFS snow coverage at hour 300. I most definitely know better to look at specific details this far out but I'm liking the overall look.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=12&model_dd=09&model_init_hh=12&fhour=300&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

[Brick Tamland]

Yes, the good thing is just seeing the pattern change is coming, and the setup looks good for some snow down the road. It looks much more positive than negative.

[GaWx]

It's still pretty crappy looking on the Day 10 Euro today and that probably isn't the ridging you're looking for, yet.... The thing to watch and the thing the Ensembles from last night say is going to happen is the next system out by the Aleutians (the one marked by the "501" area in the chain) is going to dig a bit farther south, and then sit there or even retrograde to the west a bit. This is going to enable that ridge to it's south to pull E or NE eventually into the west coast/GOA area which will develop troughing downstream over the SE. This will all probably happen after the 20th, as it looks right now. Have to see if the 12z ensembles look similar to that in about an hour.

 

Day 10 of the Euro is not too unlike day 10 of the GFS or any op. model to a large extent: very unreliable and mainly for entertainment. The 12Z Euro ens. days 6-8 say the 12Z Euro op. is on crack.

[packbacker]

The 12z Euro-ENS are fairly meh...starting to push back positive changes, been a few days now of day 15 has the good look.  The other globals seem to be progressing fine, but the Euro is the best model.  Chances are dropping that things turn around this calendar year, which is fine, hopefully by early Jan.

[metwannabe]

The 12z Euro-ENS are fairly meh...starting to push back positive changes, been a few days now of day 15 has the good look. The other globals seem to be progressing fine, but the Euro is the best model. Chances are drop that things turn around this calendar year, which is fine, hopefully by early Jan.

ensembles will keep going back and forth with timing and that's to be expected . Not really worried if things get pushed back a few days as long as the General look continues

[GaWx]

The 12z Euro-ENS are fairly meh...starting to push back positive changes, been a few days now of day 15 has the good look.  The other globals seem to be progressing fine, but the Euro is the best model.  Chances are dropping that things turn around this calendar year, which is fine, hopefully by early Jan.

 

 It looks like to me that the 12Z Euro ens. is about on par with the 0Z Euro ens. regarding pattern change timing. Also, the Euro ens. does have a slight warm bias imo.

[griteater]

Agree Pack on the Euro Ens.  Has been discussed, but it has two southern stream rain-ers, one next Tues and the other next Sat.  We remain temperate, but it's going to take some time to get closer to wintry stuff.  Southern stream looks bang up good right now - silver lining.

[Cold Rain]

We might be able to squeak in something but I don't expect a change to a good pattern now till mid Jan. It is looking more and more like it's going to be a very slow and arduous process. This strong niño is killing us. The STJ is screaming though.

[GaWx]

We might be able to squeak in something but I don't expect a change to a good pattern now till mid Jan. It is looking more and more like it's going to be a very slow and arduous process. This strong niño is killing us. The STJ is screaming though.

 

CR,

 Why? The ensemble means and Euro weeklies are all still suggesting a change a little after 12/20. The analogs have been suggesting this kind of thing as a possibility. I'm not talking about wintry precip. in the SE, which isn't too common in Dec. anyway. I'm talking a change to a +PNA/western ridge.

 

And what strong Nino? Weak Nino's can have a strong STJ at times.

[packbacker]

Agree Pack on the Euro Ens.  Has been discussed, but it has two southern stream rain-ers, one next Tues and the other next Sat.  We remain temperate, but it's going to take some time to get closer to wintry stuff.  Southern stream looks bang up good right now - silver lining.

 

Yeah, patience is going to be tested the next 10+ days.  Tracking the warming on the PV will be fun, hopefully.

[packbacker]

CR,

 Why? The ensemble means and Euro weeklies are all suggesting a change a little after 12/20. I'm not talking about wintry precip. in the SE, which isn't too common in Dec. anyway.

 

And what strong Nino? Weak Nino's can have a strong STJ at times.

 

Looking at the individual days on the weeklies, things do look great towards the end of Dec to the first few days of Jan.  Around Xmas it's still kind of blah.   But going back to last December, the weeklies were constantly predicting warming beginning of Jan and then it flipped.

[RONALD B]

Yeah where was the euro ensembles 7 days ago on this noreaster an cold weather ?point is we look for trends right now looks like the euro ensembels is cleaning up errors the op is making past 5 days !

[packbacker]

We might be able to squeak in something but I don't expect a change to a good pattern now till mid Jan. It is looking more and more like it's going to be a very slow and arduous process. This strong niño is killing us. The STJ is screaming though.

Was going to argue with but not sure your wrong. Might take till mid-Jan to get to a great pattern for us. "Good/OK" pattern might come end of Dec to early Jan.

[Cold Rain]

CR,

Why? The ensemble means and Euro weeklies are all suggesting a change a little after 12/20. I'm not talking about wintry precip. in the SE, which isn't too common in Dec. anyway.

And what strong Nino? Weak Nino's can have a strong STJ at times.

I was just playing about the strong El Niño, although the atmosphere currently (and upcoming) doesn't look like a weak Niño.

As far as the pattern change goes, the ENS have been showing a change, yes, but over the last couple of days, we've started to see them backing off somewhat. Even the Weeklies weren't as good as last Thursday. When the guidance began to show the change away from the cold back in November, that didn't really get pushed back in time. The change happened. It's not as warm as it initially was forecast to be, but the change happened.

Now, this pattern is forecast to remain basically in place for the next 10 days. There's no real consistent move toward a -AO that's staying put on the timeline (not getting pushed back). In fact, the latest discussions across the weather world are saying that a flip is still expected but not until January....at some point.

We've all witnessed the models rush changes. We hope they'll occur faster than modeled, but that's clearly not going to be the case this time.

Anyway, the operational models must start picking up on a pattern change solidly inside of 10 days pretty soon, if what the ensembles have been showing is going to turn out to be accurate.

[packbacker]

LOL....and just like that...HM tweets the following...

"If you're expecting that great winter pattern to show up at the end of models right now, you're wasting your time. #stratosphericpatience"

I bet after the 12z EPS he could sense the groans.

[deltadog03]

Somebody in the SE is getting a winter mess out of this before we just hammer the cold, IMO  There is too much energy, and "enough" cold air to make it possible for someone.  

[FallsLake]

Somebody in the SE is getting a winter mess out of this before we just hammer the cold, IMO  There is too much energy, and "enough" cold air to make it possible for someone.  

The 12z GFS thinks it's possible. The "just cold enough" air is going to be the problem for low elevation folks. Hopefully things trend a little better in the next few days.     

[Cold Rain]

LOL....and just like that...HM tweets the following...

"If you're expecting that great winter pattern to show up at the end of models right now, you're wasting your time. #stratosphericpatience"

I bet after the 12z EPS he could sense the groans.

Nice. If we're going to count on the strat warming, that probably will be mid Jan before it affects us. Am I wrong on that?

[Cold Rain]

The 12z GFS thinks it's possible. The "just cold enough" air is going to be the problem for low elevation folks. Hopefully things trend a little better in the next few days.

Yeah, that's the way it looks now. Could change though. There's enough energy running around to create some mischief. There could be just enough cold around to get the job done...especially for western and mountain sections.

[franklin NCwx]

Was going to argue with but not sure your wrong. Might take till mid-Jan to get to a great pattern for us. "Good/OK" pattern might come end of Dec to early Jan.

pattern change starts dec 20th complete by April 1st.

[packbacker]

Nice. If we're going to count on the strat warming, that probably will be mid Jan before it affects us. Am I wrong on that?

Things look good for some solid warming starting in roughly 10 days, that has been consistent in the modeling and has moved up. The site/folks Grit turned me seemed pumped up for an early Jan possibility. Will see though, I know so little about that and blindly believe what those guys say, but they seem very smart. HM seems somewhat optimistic.

[packbacker]

Yeah, that's the way it looks now. Could change though. There's enough energy running around to create some mischief. There could be just enough cold around to get the job done...especially for western and mountain sections.

Agreed! Pattern is terrible for the next 10 days and progresses to marginal through Xmas. After that who knows. There has been plenty of small winter events in marginal setups for the SE to the MA.

[Cold Rain]

Things look good for some solid warming starting in roughly 10 days, that has been consistent in the modeling and has moved up. The site/folks Grit turned me seemed pumped up for an early Jan possibility. Will see though, I know so little about that and blindly believe what those guys say, but they seem very smart. HM seems somewhat optimistic.

Yeah now that is one thing that has clearly moved in the right direction in the modeling...the strat warming. Good stuff. I like what HM is saying. And just to be clear, I don't think we're going to be in one of those crap patterns with no chances and warm weather. I just think the big +PNA/-EPO/-AO/-NAO cob stuff won't happen for a good while. But like others have said, we don't necessarily need all that to be cold enough for fun.

[Webberweather53]

LOL....and just like that...HM tweets the following...

"If you're expecting that great winter pattern to show up at the end of models right now, you're wasting your time. #stratosphericpatience"

I bet after the 12z EPS he could sense the groans.

 

 

HM does bring up a good point, I often see even w/ some knowledgeable individuals on here for example, they stare at the models way too much, remember they are guidance only, not a forecast, yet we see time & time again, with the last few days as a prime example, people pointlessly getting hyped up over a 2 week ensemble output. You shouldn't need a model to tell you that the pattern was going to turn stormy in the southern US in the medium range, the shifting core of upward motion associated w/ tropical forcing (MJO for ex) in the Pacific enhancing what is already a conducive ENSO base state (+ENSO) & an amplified subtropical jet should have been a huge clue this was going to happen. I could go on & on...

[LithiaWx]

HM does bring up a good point, I often see even w/ some knowledgeable individuals on here for example, they stare at the models way too much, remember they are guidance only, not a forecast, yet we see time & time again, with the last few days as a prime example, people pointlessly getting hyped up over a 2 week ensemble output. You shouldn't need a model to tell you that the pattern was going to turn stormy in the southern US in the medium range, the shifting core of upward motion associated w/ tropical forcing (MJO for ex) in the Pacific enhancing what is already a conducive ENSO base state (+ENSO) & an amplified subtropical jet should have been a huge clue this was going to happen. I could go on & on...

Most people including me don't understand what the last couple sentences said. Most of us can hardly read a model let alone try and pick up on Synoptics. Model watching is about as good as us weenies can do.

[Jon]

HM does bring up a good point, I often see even w/ some knowledgeable individuals on here for example, they stare at the models way too much, remember they are guidance only, not a forecast, yet we see time & time again, with the last few days as a prime example, people pointlessly getting hyped up over a 2 week ensemble output. You shouldn't need a model to tell you that the pattern was going to turn stormy in the southern US in the medium range, the shifting core of upward motion associated w/ tropical forcing (MJO for ex) in the Pacific enhancing what is already a conducive ENSO base state (+ENSO) & an amplified subtropical jet should have been a huge clue this was going to happen. I could go on & on...

Alright alright, we get that you put more thought into it than simply model watching which is for peons. Most of us are aware it's guidance. But there is such a thing in seeing trends in the models, without having to look at the "shifting core of upward motion associated w/ tropical forcing in the Pacific enhancing what is already a conducive ENSO base state (+ENSO) & an amplified subtropical jet." We know, you can infact "go on & on...", trust me, we know. But for people who want to post ensemble members and stare at them for days, let them. It's like you're calling out people for not being specific or in-depth enough with their reasoning. I say let people post what they want to post, as long as it's weather related and models, it belongs here. For a lot of us, the MJO charts and composites get old and boring after a while...we want something tangible, and for us that's model output. We're not all mets here and a lot of us are amateur forecasters. We simply don't have the textbook knowledge drilled into our brain to look elsewhere. I mean we can, but by the time we write something up and do all the research it will be January already. Appreciate your input but I think this post was a little much.

[Jon]

Most people including me don't understand what the last couple sentences said. Most of us can hardly read a model let alone try and pick up on Synoptics. Model watching is about as good as us weenies can do.

Agreed. I mean I could go look at that stuff, but when they're posting it in the main thread and webber is updating in here, what's the need? Model watching isn't bad and please, continue. That's what leads to discussion and thought provoking posts in this sub forum. Alright I'm off my soap box now.

[Southern Track]

Really like the look of that active southern stream on the 18z GFS. It's been really consistent on that feature.