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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

LithiaWx

By LithiaWx,
in Southeastern States

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

What consistency we had been seeing modeling a better pattern seems to have take a sizable step backward today. We should hope that doesn't become the theme.

I wouldn't say backwards just not giant leaps forward. The weeklies essentially just tick a little better through about day 28 and then the last 4 days you still have a west coast ridge and trough on east coast but lower heights on west coast. Which I guess is due to maybe systems/energy coming digging down the west coast which I guess could mean an active pattern. It didn't go backwards, for the weeklies still looks fine to me.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

IMO, it is +PNA but not so much -EPO. However, I could be misunderstanding where -EPO ridging sets up.

 

The -epo ridge strengthens through the run. Look at the isobars in nw canada, ak, and towards the pole. It's a classic -epo. Forget the temps on the weeklies. If that height pattern verifies there will be copious cold air in the eastern half of the conus. 

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JoMo

JoMo

Posted
Posted

I wouldn't say backwards just not giant leaps forward. The weeklies essentially just tick a little better through about day 28 and then the last 4 days you still have a west coast ridge and trough on east coast but lower heights on west coast. Which I guess is due to maybe systems/energy coming digging down the west coast which I guess could mean an active pattern. It didn't go backwards, for the weeklies still looks fine to me.

 

Yeah, it's an El Nino look for sure, storms digging down the west coast, and crossing the southern US. Looks to be fairly active. 

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

Posted
Posted

Models have trouble in pattern change regimes as well as in the long range.  It literally is a recipe for back and forth waffling.

Truth  ;)  

 

The -epo ridge strengthens through the run. Look at the isobars in nw canada, ak, and towards the pole. It's a classic -epo. Forget the temps on the weeklies. If that height pattern verifies there will be copious cold air in the eastern half of the conus. 

Agreed  :D 

 

Steve!  :wub:  

 

Patience grasshoppers......patience  :lol: 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Ok, I will defer to your good judgment then! I did see the Canadian Ens and they looked really good. Not sure how much to trust those though.

There's some clarity coming together right now. Gefs and eps now agree that the ridging out west comes on the heels of a sw entering the west coast sometime around the 19th or so. 18z gefs shows it just like the EPS. 18z gefs looked pretty good near the end of the run too.

It's worth keeping a casual on these waves but it's not looking like a favorable snow pattern for the east. Especially for the MA southward. All guidance shows that changing for the better as we approach christmas and beyond. It won't be long before fantasy threats start popping up on the op's. Lol

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
Posted

Ok, I will defer to your good judgment then! I did see the Canadian Ens and they looked really good. Not sure how much to trust those though.

about the same as the gefs. The euro ensembles are clearly the best and it's not even close.

Meanwhile the 18z gefs look like the other ensembles guidance and previous gefs runs. Winter un-cancel !

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

There's some clarity coming together right now. Gefs and eps now agree that the ridging out west comes on the heels of a sw entering the west coast sometime around the 19th or so. 18z gefs shows it just like the EPS. 18z gefs looked pretty good near the end of the run too.

It's worth keeping a casual on these waves but it's not looking like a favorable snow pattern for the east. Especially for the MA southward. All guidance shows that changing for the better as we approach christmas and beyond. It won't be long before fantasy threats start popping up on the op's. Lol

Thanks Bob. I always look for the modeled projections to move forward in time and not remain stuck post 240. As long as we're making some progress in that regard, I'm a happy camper. But as you and others have mentioned, there is so much energy floating around, the models will inherently have difficulty.

One thing I'm kind of curious about is that most of the analogs we've seen feature a weak Niño, but the atmosphere is behaving like a stronger one. I wonder if that is indicative of anything that was unanticipated or if it's merely an observation and has no bearing. It's probably the latter.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Thanks Bob. I always look for the modeled projections to move forward in time and not remain stuck post 240. As long as we're making some progress in that regard, I'm a happy camper. But as you and others have mentioned, there is so much energy floating around, the models will inherently have difficulty.

One thing I'm kind of curious about is that most of the analogs we've seen feature a weak Niño, but the atmosphere is behaving like a stronger one. I wonder if that is indicative of anything that was unanticipated or if it's merely an observation and has no bearing. It's probably the latter.

 

I am so impatient, but most said the earliest things expect to change for the better was after the 20th into the last week of the year, so that is still 12+ days aways, if by the weekend we don't see the changes get inside day 10 it might just be after the new year.  Which for us, who really cares, it's not like we get snow all that often in Dec anyways.  Our prime time isn't until mid-January to end of February, so we want things to really get better starting then.  I am sure the MA up to the NE (95 corridor) are gritting there teeth right about now because they do get snow in Dec.

 

I expect the weeklies this Thursday to look better for weeks 3 and 4.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

The -epo ridge strengthens through the run. Look at the isobars in nw canada, ak, and towards the pole. It's a classic -epo. Forget the temps on the weeklies. If that height pattern verifies there will be copious cold air in the eastern half of the conus.

Bob, thanks. I thought the upper air looked really good despite the +NAO, which I'd strongly expect to come around to -NAO afterward. So, I agree that the barely colder than normal 2m temp.'s for week 4 could easily verify much colder should that -EPO/+PNA/-AO verify. I was just saying what the output showed for week 4 vs the same week on Thu's run. For whatever reason, it wasn't nearly as cold. The analogs have kept me confident in a quite cold winter overall. I remain as confident as ever. Besides, the SE torch is done at least for now and may hardly return. Here in Savannah, it has been quite a bit below normal since yesterday by the way.
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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

I am so impatient, but most said the earliest things expect to change for the better was after the 20th into the last week of the year, so that is still 12+ days aways, if by the weekend we don't see the changes get inside day 10 it might just be after the new year. Which for us, who really cares, it's not like we get snow all that often in Dec anyways. Our prime time isn't until mid-January to end of February, so we want things to really get better starting then. I am sure the MA up to the NE (95 corridor) are gritting there teeth right about now because they do get snow in Dec.

I expect the weeklies this Thursday to look better for weeks 3 and 4.

I hear you. I'm just impatient. You guys are right.

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RONALD B

RONALD B

Posted
Posted

Folks,

 The 0Z GEFS looks more in line with GEFS of a couple of days ago with its timing of the pattern change. It doesn't seem to be quite as fast as those runs, but it is faster than runs of yesterday.

Yeah but one thing i say watch the bowling ball track south on the 18th if the trough follows things  could get interesting for some ?cmc picked up on it gefs just shows a weak nothing we will see what king has tonight ?

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
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Let me take a stab at this, the 0z euro still has the cutoff over AR at 3 contours, moves it to the NC/SC border by the 17th, lots of rain potentially for some in the SE, looks too warm for any wintry fun. It appears to be weakening as it gets to the Carolinas?

Low track looks perfect - over CAE to MYR, man, if it was a little colder! But pretty consistant with that feature and trac the past few runs

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RONALD B

RONALD B

Posted
Posted

Let me take a stab at this, the 0z euro still has the cutoff over AR at 3 contours, moves it to the NC/SC border by the 17th, lots of rain potentially for some in the SE, looks too warm for any wintry fun. It appears to be weakening as it gets to the Carolinas?

the euro has a sw bias we need a connection with this low an the cold cmc tried ensembels could  be interesting ?

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

Let me take a stab at this, the 0z euro still has the cutoff over AR at 3 contours, moves it to the NC/SC border by the 17th, lots of rain potentially for some in the SE, looks too warm for any wintry fun. It appears to be weakening as it gets to the Carolinas?

 

Yeah, basically.  I think it's probably the coldest the Euro has been with it, but it's still not enough and probably never will be.  The clown actually puts down some trace totals in some portions of NC, and I suppose that's possible as 850s and thicknesses do crash as the precip moves in and out, but I tend to doubt it.  Hopefully, I'm not hallucinating before bed.

 

I guess it's something to watch, perhaps.  It's not like there's anything else to watch for besides chasing fantasy patterns.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

The Euro ensemble snow maps show a chance for snow around the 22nd and again for Jan 2 right now for the southeast including Alabama and Georgia.

 

It's interesting that's for sure.   There is another system right on it's heels, going to kick it out but atleast something to look at.

post-2311-0-19019500-1418129807_thumb.pn

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Here are the GFS (top) and CMC (bottom) ENS at 360 hrs. I chose that time frame because it's the last hour that the CMC shows on eWall and pretty much everything before that looks like garbage, in terms of cold. The CMC ens look better, but it's still way out there. If this starts to work in under 10 days, I'll be happy. Until then, it's hard not to be a little skeptical. The good thing is, this has been showing up fairly regularly now.

post-987-0-71960800-1418132731_thumb.gif

post-987-0-91328100-1418132742_thumb.gif

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

WRAL's Greg Fishel says things start to look interesting next week. Just don't count on him to discuss any long range modeling.

 

I certainly know enough not to go out on any silly limbs with regard to winter forecasts, but suffice it to say the overall large scale pattern is one that catches my eye starting in about a week. As weather enthusiasts know, our best shot for significant winter events in central North Carolina result from cold high pressure to the north and moisture laden low pressure areas traveling across the southern U.S. After a dry period from this coming Wednesday through the following Monday, there are indications of an active southern storm track developing. Will there be enough cold air in place for any of those systems to make use of? Way too early to tell. And if one long range computer model forecast comes out in the coming days and has something interesting over North Carolina, you can count on me NOT to show it. I'm looking at a large scale pattern, not a random out of control computer model forecast. Yes I know, if I show it, and it turns out to be right, I could be a hero. Sorry, not interested. Let someone else have the glory.

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