Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

[GaWx]

2) Even if the first half of Dec is mild, we of course can still have quite a cold winter. When I get time, I'm going to look back at my daily KATL data (back to 1930) and see what I can find about this.

 

KATL: Not a lot of cases...only two..so, I'd prefer the 1st half of Dec. not be warm for later in the winter prospects. However, 1939-0 is one of the best analogs: warm Oct., cold Nov., late starting weak to low end Nino, +PDO, -NAO..so, perhaps it wouldn't be bad to have  a warm first half of Dec.

 

1939-0: 13 of 1st 19 days of Dec above normal and averaged +4. DJF -5.5

1957-8: 12/14-25 all warmer than normal and averaged +9. DJF -3. So, the back half of Dec. had most of these mild days.

 

**Edited

[pcbjr]

KATL:

1939-0: 13 of 1st 19 days of Dec above normal and averaged +4. DJF -5.5

1957-8: 12/14-25 all warmer than normal and averaged +9. DJF -3. So, the back half of Dec. had most of these mild days.

 

 

Does this mean you're suggesting a warm 1st 1/2 of December?

[GaWx]

Does this mean you're suggesting a warm 1st 1/2 of December?

 

 Not at all. However, the Euro weeklies from yesterday suggested that it would be ~1.5 above normal fwiw.

[pcbjr]

 Not at all. However, the Euro weeklies from yesterday suggested that it would be ~1.5 above normal fwiw.

 

 

Didn't think so after your previous very well documented and thought out analysis on cold Novembers correlated to this current set up across the board.

 

I'm just sitting out here on a figurative park bench, and keep thinking about and remembering how a few really warm winters happened after a cool to cold November. Not to say there is a ying and yang at all, but ....

 

So, any post or discussion or model that goes warm into December now sort of makes me wonder about the many "cold" winter forecasts we've all seen.

 

Not a prognostication - just a thought .....

[GaWx]

 On second thought, 1939-0 is one of the best analogs: warm Oct., cold Nov., late starting weak to low end Nino, +PDO, -NAO....so, perhaps it wouldn't be bad to have a warm first half of Dec.

 

For ATL,1939-0: 13 of 1st 19 days of Dec above normal and averaged +4. DJF -5.5...7th coldest winter. Jan. of 1940 was coldest month in recorded history and was brutal. ATL had both a severe ZR AND one of biggest snowfalls on record, both in Jan.

[EmersonGA]

On second thought, 1939-0 is one of the best analogs: warm Oct., cold Nov., late starting weak to low end Nino, +PDO, -NAO....so, perhaps it wouldn't be bad to have a warm first half of Dec.

For ATL,1939-0: 13 of 1st 19 days of Dec above normal and averaged +4. DJF -5.5...7th coldest winter. Jan. of 1940 was coldest month in recorded history and was brutal. ATL had both a severe ZR AND one of biggest snowfalls on record, both in Jan.

I've got a picture of Rome GA in January of 1940 where the Coosa was so frozen it looked like half the town was standing in the middle of it. That was quite a winter

[jburns]

Interesting. New forecast tool available for the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) called the "HRRR Browser"

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/hrrr/

[Brick Tamland]

Great post on Facebook by WxSouth about this being a possible MODOKI winter, which is big for the Southeast.

[jburns]

Great post on Facebook by WxSouth about this being a possible MODOKI winter, which is big for the Southeast.

Before you ask.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/elnmodoki/about_elnm.html

[dsaur]

Seems to me there is a missing element with this next cold push, on the GFS anyway.  Nine times out of ten you..... or maybe it's two out of 8, 3 out of 7?, lol, you'll get some instabilities riding down with these cold, cold winds, and although Goofy shows it all nice and clear, I'd be surprised if some clouds and flurries, at least don't make it into N. Ga.  Cold pushes like these are kind of rare, so kind of rare stuff ought to follow.  Just saying.......  T

[machetemoonlight]

Seems to me there is a missing element with this next cold push, on the GFS anyway.  Nine times out of ten you..... or maybe it's two out of 8, 3 out of 7?, lol, you'll get some instabilities riding down with these cold, cold winds, and although Goofy shows it all nice and clear, I'd be surprised if some clouds and flurries, at least don't make it into N. Ga.  Cold pushes like these are kind of rare, so kind of rare stuff ought to follow.  Just saying.......  T

yar, gonna be some 'surprise' snow mixing on the backside with this.. just going by hard 20+ years' weather memory and no specific model loving.

[dsaur]

yar, gonna be some 'surprise' snow mixing on the backside with this.. just going by hard 20+ years' weather memory and no specific model loving.

Yep, that's what I'm going by.   There are usually some packets of energy riding down the trough when you get a steep doozy like this.  Just backs up what I always say, you need the rain first...in winter it always gets cold enough a time or two, and 20 down here is plenty cold enough.  It just doesn't always precipitate when you get the cold air.  Timing, and rain, more than bitter cold is what it takes.  And in the south it doesn't always show up until it's on you, and it doesn't have to be Dec. Jan, and Feb, or Mar.  Just need timing. I think Goofy will find some flurries by Wed.T

[nchighcountrywx]

Joe had a good presentation this morning and he placed emphasis on this highlighted area to watch for development of blocking to lock our winter pattern

He also likes this over the next 11 to 15 day period

Hang tight!

[WidreMann]

Looks like the pattern will break down and perhaps stay that way for a while. The Pacific looks awful in the last few panels of the Euro from this morning.

[GaWx]

Joe had a good presentation this morning and he placed emphasis on this highlighted area to watch for development of blocking to lock our winter pattern

He also likes this over the next 11 to 15 day period

Hang tight!

At this point, my confidence in a cold winter overall has not been shaken at all. In contrast, it is about as high as it has been to this point based on the analog approach. I've seen nothing to counter that. Yes, I'm largely dismissing those non-cold seasonal model projections. I'll put it this way: if I can't predict a cold winter for this one, I'd have to wonder if I could ever predict a cold one.

Even if we get warmth during a good chunk of Dec (especially first half) and Dec, itself, ends up not being cold , I have 1939-40, one of the best analogs as of now and which had an absolutely brutal January, as something on which to hang my hat.

I feel more and more like I already hit 7-7-7 on the cold winter slot machine and that I'm just waiting to get paid.

To be clear, nothing is near a certainty with regard to seasonal forecasting. However, despite this not being near a certainty, it is about as close to that as is possible IMO. I've put out numerous analog based posts to back my position.

Don't forget that even the coldest winter on record at Atlanta (1976-7) had about two dozen warmer than normal days out of 90 (more than 25%).

Edited several times

[burgertime]

Looks like the pattern will break down and perhaps stay that way for a while. The Pacific looks awful in the last few panels of the Euro from this morning.

 

and yet...the last panel of the Euro actually has light snow breaking out over NC. In general the Euro and GFS look really wonky to me at the end of their runs. You've got a huge trough carving out over the east with ULL's spinning through.....just reminds me a lot of when the LR is really out to lunch on the GFS. I believe this happened a lot last year only to fall back to a generally colder pattern once we got to about 4 days to the actual "event" in that LR. Not saying it will happen this year but just looks odd to my untrained eye. 

[WidreMann]

and yet...the last panel of the Euro actually has light snow breaking out over NC. In general the Euro and GFS look really wonky to me at the end of their runs. You've got a huge trough carving out over the east with ULL's spinning through.....just reminds me a lot of when the LR is really out to lunch on the GFS. I believe this happened a lot last year only to fall back to a generally colder pattern once we got to about 4 days to the actual "event" in that LR. Not saying it will happen this year but just looks odd to my untrained eye.

Are you talking 240 or 360? The 240 is definitely not snow for NC, at least outside of the mountains. It's just a cold front passage.

[GaWx]

Fwiw, despite the "it looks warmer" talk, the last three runs of the GFS, including the GEFS, have had colder than normal for the 11-15 day period. If this verifies, a top ten cold November at ATL (out of 135 years) and probably many areas in the SE would become likely. The 12Z GFS is colder than normal then.

[burgertime]

Are you talking 240 or 360? The 240 is definitely not snow for NC, at least outside of the mountains. It's just a cold front passage.

 

Verbatim at 240 there is some light QPF with thickness and 850's cold enough for snow for most of WNC. Now it's light qpf and does look like it's just the atmosphere getting wrung out from the cold front passing but it is there. So more than likely not going to happen, just thought it was interesting given the setup at the end. 

[burgertime]

The 12z Para has a more favorable pattern in the LR. Below normal temps with a lot of chances for moisture coming from the gulf. 

[NEGa]

At this point, my confidence in a cold winter overall has not been shaken at all. In contrast, it is about as high as it has been to this point based on the analog approach. I've seen nothing to counter that. Yes, I'm largely dismissing those non-cold seasonal model projections. I'll put it this way: if I can't predict a cold winter for this one, I'd have to wonder if I could ever predict a cold one.

Even if we get warmth during a good chunk of Dec (especially first half) and Dec, itself, ends up not being cold , I have 1939-40, one of the best analogs as of now and which had an absolutely brutal January, as something on which to hang my hat.

I feel more and more like I already hit 7-7-7 on the cold winter slot machine and that I'm just waiting to get paid.

To be clear, nothing is near a certainty with regard to seasonal forecasting. However, despite this not being near a certainty, it is about as close to that as is possible IMO. I've put out numerous analog based posts to back my position.

Don't forget that even the coldest winter on record at Atlanta (1976-7) had about two dozen warmer than normal days out of 90 (more than 25%).

Edited several times

this is from memory and i was pretty young, but seems like some of the good storms in the mid to late 70s came in to n ga after a warm spell with temps in the 60s and 70s

[mackerel_sky]

this is from memory and i was pretty young, but seems like some of the good storms in the mid to late 70s came in to n ga after a warm spell with temps in the 60s and 70s

Yes, my memory too! January 88 off the top of my head. It was very warm around Christmas Day, then , top 3 snow of all time, temps in teens. , snow stayed on the ground ALONG time!

[GaWx]

this is from memory and i was pretty young, but seems like some of the good storms in the mid to late 70s came in to n ga after a warm spell with temps in the 60s and 70s

 

 In ATL it was mild a few days before the great Feb. 1979 sleetstorm, the infamous Snowjam 1982, and the frigid snowstorm of 3/2/1980. So, obviously that could happen again this winter. However, as cold dominant as this winter is expected to be and when considering the dailies of some of the cold Ninoish analog winters, I think it would be more likely to be in the midst of a near normal to cold period.

[NEGa]

 In ATL it was mild a few days before the great Feb. 1979 sleetstorm, the infamous Snowjam 1982, and the frigid snowstorm of 3/2/1980. So, obviously that could happen again this winter. However, as cold dominant as this winter is expected to be and when considering the dailies of some of the cold Ninoish analog winters, I think it would be more likely to be in the midst of a near normal to cold period.

i would love it to occur during/in the middle of a cold period, just dubious on this winter as if as cold as it seems this would be like 3 back to back in a row here lol.  just reminding se people that this IS the se and wall to wall record cold just isnt likely.  yes it appears to be a cold winter in the offing, but it wouldnt surprise me to have a few warmer spells

[GaWx]

i would love it to occur during/in the middle of a cold period, just dubious on this winter as if as cold as it seems this would be like 3 back to back in a row here lol.  just reminding se people that this IS the se and wall to wall record cold just isnt likely.  yes it appears to be a cold winter in the offing, but it wouldnt surprise me to have a few warmer spells

NEGa,

1) Agreed. As I said, even the coldest ATL winter, 1976-7, had 25 days of the 90 warmer than normal.

2) Last winter was only slightly colder than normal overall for much of GA/SC/NC despite the very cold January. Also, 2012-3 was mild. So, this wouldn't be the 3rd cold in a row.

[NEGa]

NEGa,

1) Agreed. As I said, even the coldest ATL winter, 1976-7, had 25 days of the 90 warmer than normal.

2) Last winter was only slightly colder than normal overall for much of GA/SC/NC despite the very cold January. Also, 2012-3 was mild. So, this wouldn't be the 3rd cold in a row.

 

i guess i was just counting the winter overall vs. pure cold.  there seems to have been a return to the winters of the 70s and 80s with quite a bit of snow and ice.  i guess after the string a horrid winters a few years ago lately we seem to be on a winning streak lol

[GaWx]

i guess i was just counting the winter overall vs. pure cold.  there seems to have been a return to the winters of the 70s and 80s with quite a bit of snow and ice.  i guess after the string a horrid winters a few years ago lately we seem to be on a winning streak lol

 

I agree that a great 2014-5 wintry precipwise would make two great in a row and would extend the great period N GA has had since 2008-9, the greatest since the late 70's to early 80's. 1986-7 and 1987-8 was also a fantastic two winters.

[Eric]

In the Mid-Atlantic forum they are talking about the winter of 1880/1881 as a possible analog for this winter. Charlotte received 18.6" of snow between Christmas Day 1880 and New Years Day 1881. Charlotte also recorded its all-time lowest temperature(-5º) on December 30, 1880.

 

12/25/1880 - 4.0"

12/29/1880 - 11.0"

01/01/1881 - 3.6"

[pcbjr]

In the Mid-Atlantic forum they are talking about the winter of 1880/1881 as a possible analog for this winter. Charlotte received 18.6" of snow between Christmas Day 1880 and New Years Day 1881. Charlotte also recorded its all-time lowest temperature(-5º) on December 30, 1880.

 

12/25/1880 - 4.0"

12/29/1880 - 11.0"

01/01/1881 - 3.6"

 

 

What was the rest of that winter like? Jan - March?

[GaWx]

In the Mid-Atlantic forum they are talking about the winter of 1880/1881 as a possible analog for this winter. Charlotte received 18.6" of snow between Christmas Day 1880 and New Years Day 1881. Charlotte also recorded its all-time lowest temperature(-5º) on December 30, 1880.

 

12/25/1880 - 4.0"

12/29/1880 - 11.0"

01/01/1881 - 3.6"

 

 ATL got a 6" snow on 12/29/1880  (that's 300% of climo in one storm). It appears to have been a dry, powdery snow. ATl got down to +1 F on 12/30, only one wamer than the all time Dec. low of 0. The winter as a whole was chilly but not brutal.