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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

LithiaWx

By LithiaWx,
in Southeastern States

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BullCityWx

BullCityWx

Posted
Posted

When HM tweets that 76 "remains one of the best SST analogs" when adjusted...not sure when adjusted means but ... :shiver:

 

You know, one of my biggest fears for this winter is we dont see a flake of snow in December then January plunges into the icebox just like 77 which would kill snow chances and we moderate in February just like 77. 

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

You know, one of my biggest fears for this winter is we dont see a flake of snow in December then January plunges into the icebox just like 77 which would kill snow chances and we moderate in February just like 77. 

 

I agree, would rather have it not so brutally cold, but when you toe the line with temps we usually get burned, at least my area.

 

Edit:  Also, HM didn't say he expects this winter to be like 76/77, just the SST analog is similar.

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Interesting how that streak of above normal temp starting at the coast of VA and out into the Atlantic is mirrored by above normal precip in almost the exact same area.

looks like a hell of a winter for the NE. Noreaster after noreaster to be giving 2.5+ anomalies in that location for a seasonal forecast I figure. Also notice the gulf moisture.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

We really need a good report from the Weeklies today. Get the week started off right.

 

I would bet week 3 looks good, but wonder if by end of week 4 we relax....just a guess though, we will see in about 90 mins.  

 

The 12z EPS was good, a little better ridging and a little deeper trough in the east, when compared to the 0z run.  Splitting hairs really.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

Random maps for the day...

 

I put together these composites for DJFM showing all months in which Asheville received at least 7.5 inches of snow (since 1948).

 

Here's is what stood out to me:

1. Above normal temperatures are pretty much non-existent in any part of the U.S. in those composites.  Same with above normal height anomalies...non-existent across the U.S.

2. -AO/-NAO pattern dominates the composites.

3. Above normal heights in Alaska are present in all but the March composite.

4. No consistent pattern in the north Pacific (Aleutian Low / Aleutian High) across the composites

 

 

DECEMBER

2nipqg4.gif

 

 

JANUARY

5xob4m.gif

 

 

FEBRUARY

xckdpc.gif

 

 

MARCH

2r78sow.gif

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Decent look, energy in the southern stream and an amped up west coast ridge.  I would take my chances with that.  Even the smoothed 5 day average looks nice.

 

attachicon.gifgem-ens_z500a_nhem_65.png

 

attachicon.gifgem-ens_z500a5d_nhem_3.png

I thought the 00z CMC ensembles looked better but it does hit towards energy in the southern stream which is cool to see.

 

h0xC6SQ.png

 

both hint towards cross polar flow with a -AO. With two ridges like that the trough has to be deeper. Two words: Polar Vortex.

 

From late Feb last year, memories...I'm not really good at analogs I just put this date in because I thought it had a similar look, don't know an easy way of finding a close analog to the model output.

w6D4zh8.gif

 

I think the canadian has done better at sniffing out this pattern when I posted about it earlier when the GFS and GEFS wasn't showing crap, now they're trying to come around. This should encourage folks who think we can't get any "real" cold air on tap at the end of the month, we might be surprised the way those anomalies look at the end of the model run and with a +PNA like that how can we not be supplied cold?

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

When HM tweets that 76 "remains one of the best SST analogs" when adjusted...not sure when adjusted means but ... :shiver:

Temps in the 70's were chillier overall so maybe you make that adjustment, but no matter how this winter turns out, 76-77 is an excellent analog...ENSO, PDO, QBO, OPI, SCE, SAI, Oct pattern, all very similar.  The one glaring difference is that winter was in solar min...we may still get a big -AO/-NAO, but solar min would have put the dagger in it.

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
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I thought the 00z CMC ensembles looked better but it does hit towards energy in the southern stream which is cool to see.

 

h0xC6SQ.png

 

both hint towards cross polar flow with a -AO. With two ridges like that the trough has to be deeper. Two words: Polar Vortex.

 

From late Feb last year, memories...I'm not really good at analogs I just put this date in because I thought it had a similar look, don't know an easy way of finding a close analog to the model output.

w6D4zh8.gif

 

I think the canadian has done better at sniffing out this pattern when I posted about it earlier when the GFS and GEFS wasn't showing crap, now they're trying to come around. This should encourage folks who think we can't get any "real" cold air on tap at the end of the month, we might be surprised the way those anomalies look at the end of the model run and with a +PNA like that how can we not be supplied cold?

 

IMO, the positioning of the ridge on the Canadian Ensemble is primo for the SE to cash in.  I think you are right as well, It seems that setup would have air coming over the arctic, down through Canada and right into the trof.  So even if Canada isn't too cold that looks like polar air invading with a ridge that high on the west coast and it's positioning being perfect.

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Snowless in Carrollton

Snowless in Carrollton

Posted
Posted

Going with what HM said this morning, even if this pattern (+PNA & no SE ridge) was to persist through the winter we would start to get more opportunities for wintery precip as we get farther into winter. The highs to our north will get stronger and the air colder. Most likely we would receive most winter threats from CADs. But most likely the colder patter flip will occur; at least that's what I believe.

so you're saying that if you live in the south and are not in a CAD area like GA or AL you are screwed ?
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RONALD B

RONALD B

Posted
Posted

Euro weeklies week 4 (12/29-1/04): slightly below normal to near normal temp.'s SE, i.e., not nearly as cold for SE/E US vs. last Thursday's version.

 

Week 4 500 mb still looks good with -AO/+PNA but +NAO all 4 weeks.

I been following this model for years now an past week 2 it always has trouble . From what i seen it's a warm biased model for the east past 2 weeks nov was a great example.

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

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What consistency we had been seeing modeling a better pattern seems to have take a sizable step backward today. We should hope that doesn't become the theme.

 

Models have trouble in pattern change regimes as well as in the long range.  It literally is a recipe for back and forth waffling.

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