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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

LithiaWx

By LithiaWx,
in Southeastern States

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Webberweather53

Webberweather53

Posted
Posted

From HM in the mid atlantic thread.

With the arrival of the insane Pacific Jet this week, it will kick off a parade of southern stream lows--one after another. Models, especially ensemble means, will average this out in the day 10-15 period and make it look like some "3-wave configuration" etc. But in reality, a classic PNA, split flow will develop and models will screw-up this separation (especially the GFS). So, expect continued correcting from a smoother, longer wavelength to a shorter wavelength/split stream from the day 10-15 means to day 6-10 means.

There is NO torch coming and eventually these monster southern lows will pay off...

 

 

I concur. Thanks in part to the MJO milling around in the Pacific & it's coincident shift in the mean upward motion signal/convection increasing upper level divergence that is effectively accelerating the Pacific jet stream to its north, we're seeing quite an extension of the Pacific Jet (to equalize this increase in acceleration). W/ an already amped subtropical jet courtesy of CCKW passage & our low frequency ENSO & PDO base state this = a parade of undercutting w/ the southern stream & @ the very least... I.e. generally unsettled weather in the southern tier that's all too commonplace in a N American El Nino winter...

 

+ENSO MJO Dec 500mb composites for phases 7-1 (Central Pacific-Western Hemisphere)

 

DecENMJOphase7all500mb.gif

DecENMJOphase8all500mb.gif

DecENMJOphase1all500mb.gif

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CherokeeGA

CherokeeGA

Posted
Posted

Wouldn't be the first time that Melish has been caught plagiarizing. He was caught twice last year copying Robert's stuff.

 

Meteorology is a science.  It's not uncommon for many/most mets to arrive at similar forecasts, because they're all interpreting the same data.  However, there's no excuse for not putting your forecasts into your own words.

 

As a paying WxSouth customer (with a photographic memory), I was pretty unhappy to see Robert Gamble's written forecast discussion literally copied verbatim to Mellish's blog on WSB Radio's site last winter, with only a handful of words changed out of hundreds and with no credit whatsoever given.  Within a day or so it was removed from the WSB site.

 

That it's happened multiple times now means that WSB Radio is culpable too, imho.  I no longer visit their websites for weather or news.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Crazy look at day 7. No real cold air in Canada, big trough out in the Atlantic, and a bowling ball system pushing across the south:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=168ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_168_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141208+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=168ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_168_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141208+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

Posted
Posted

So close, but yet so far    :(         In brighter news......yay for split flow continuing to show up as we head into winter  :wub: 

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

much different on the parallel as far as strength, that just came up and running for 12z, looks like it's going to spit out a miller B but doesn't. 1004mb low over E Texas then fizzles out?

 

y4OgyS1.png

 

 

We do see signs of it though here...

 

2Bu6ORy.png

 

I wonder, and this is wishful thinking, that we can get a Miller B out of this and bring some cold air behind the primary low and probably have a mountain snow maybe foothills once (if) the secondary low develops.

 

The Euro looked like it was going to do the same thing around 216hrs but just kept the weak low together over the Carolinas. Euro control actually has some "snow" for Central NC holding ULL together and somehow the cold air is there, I don't see it though...haha.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

much different on the parallel as far as strength, that just came up and running for 12z, looks like it's going to spit out a miller B but doesn't. 1004mb low over E Texas then fizzles out?

 

 

 

 

We do see signs of it though here...

 

 

 

I wonder, and this is wishful thinking, that we can get a Miller B out of this and bring some cold air behind the primary low and probably have a mountain snow maybe foothills once (if) the secondary low develops.

 

The Euro looked like it was going to do the same thing around 216hrs but just kept the weak low together over the Carolinas. Euro control actually has some "snow" for Central NC holding ULL together and somehow the cold air is there, I don't see it though...haha.

Just not a good feed of cold with any model. I suppose we could have the ULL create it's own cold but that is really wishing at this point. **But because there's nothing better to track it might as well be this... 

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
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Very seasonal + or - a degree or two temps should be expected in N. GA over the next week. I'm still not seeing a cold pattern on the latest GFS run. For this area I think its going to take a below normal pattern to produce a snowstorm. We continue to wait for a snow pattern to show itself on the LR models. The pattern is in no way torchy but it's very benign and non eventful.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Very seasonal + or - a degree or two temps should be expected in N. GA over the next week. I'm still not seeing a cold pattern on the latest GFS run. For this area I think its going to take a below normal pattern to produce a snowstorm. We continue to wait for a snow pattern to show itself on the LR models. The pattern is in no way torchy but it's very benign and non eventful.

Going with what HM said this morning, even if this pattern (+PNA & no SE ridge) was to persist through the winter we would start to get more opportunities for wintery precip as we get farther into winter. The highs to our north will get stronger and the air colder. Most likely we would receive most winter threats from CADs. But most likely the colder patter flip will occur; at least that's what I believe.   

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Just not a good feed of cold with any model. I suppose we could have the ULL create it's own cold but that is really wishing at this point. **But because there's nothing better to track it might as well be this... 

yeah might as well...honestly it's the first storm that has piqued my interest.

 

06z CMC had nothing really fort his time period, now 12z has this.

 

Etgk2sG.png

 

 

lL2XG66.png

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Judging by what I've seen in the MA forum, the typical time push back is happening.

 

It's really hard to say to be honest. I'm not sure if it really is a push back in time or just noise. I would expect over the next 2 weeks for one of these southern lows to bring the change to cold on the heels. With such an active jet it's nearly impossible to really know exactly when and how things will transpire. I would think eventually one of the storms will amplify and carve out an eastern trough and pop ridging in the west. 

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

Posted
Posted

It's really hard to say to be honest. I'm not sure if it really is a push back in time or just noise. I would expect over the next 2 weeks for one of these southern lows to bring the change to cold on the heels. With such an active jet it's nearly impossible to really know exactly when and how things will transpire. I would think eventually one of the storms will amplify and carve out an eastern trough and pop ridging in the west. 

Exactly   ;)   

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

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Going with what HM said this morning, even if this pattern (+PNA & no SE ridge) was to persist through the winter we would start to get more opportunities for wintery precip as we get farther into winter. The highs to our north will get stronger and the air colder. Most likely we would receive most winter threats from CADs. But most likely the colder patter flip will occur; at least that's what I believe.   

 

This sounds extremely reasonable.  I also believe the flip is coming but now I wonder if it happens in early January as opposed to the last 10 days of December.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

That looks good, Pack. It's not showing tremendous negative departures, but the anomaly placements look pretty good.

 

Looks great, the wet SE/E is my favorite part.

 

JB tweeted this morning the Euro seasonal 5h matches his analogs...the Euro seasonal on the freebie site hasn't updated, he must get them earlier.

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