Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

[Webberweather53]

 I'm going to guess that Marietta didn't mean 1978-9 and meant either 1976-7 (though it did break warmer ~2/15) or 1977-8 as Dec. of 1978 was 2.6 warmer than normal and had no wintry precip. JB had been harping on 76-7 as a wall to wall winter analog. 1978-9 wasn't even El Nino.

 

 

I agree, I'm not sure where 1978-79 came from, other than the fact that it was one of, if not the coldest winter as a whole nationwide since at least 1895, but December was indeed mild in the southeast.

[LithiaWx]

I'm going to guess that Marietta didn't mean 1978-9 and meant either 1976-7 (though it did break warmer ~2/15) or 1977-8 as Dec. of 1978 was 2.6 warmer than normal and had no wintry precip. JB had been harping on 76-7 as a wall to wall winter analog. 1978-9 wasn't even El Nino.

Yes, 76-77. Thank you. I was recalling from

memory. My post was a swipe at JBs all consuming cold bias.

[franklin NCwx]

Canadian ensembles continue to look good. Really adamant about the +pna.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Yes, 76-77. Thank you. I was recalling from

memory. My post was a swipe at JBs all consuming cold bias.

 

I remember the winter of 76-77 very well. The thing I remember the most was how everyone was calling for a cold winter in the east. The Fall was cold. Then came December and it turned warm. There were plenty of cliff divers even back then who said, "Oh we made a mistake it's going to be a warm winter" January came and then everyone said we were right the first time. Now it's going to be a cold winter.... Sound familiar? I have been sitting back laughing at all the posters cancelling winter in early December. Especially the ones who say that the winter of 1976-77 analog is off the table.

[Batman]

One thing that this discussion reminds me is that a wall to wall cold stormy winter is nearly unheard of (especially in the SE). Looking at the cold winters that had either a mild spell in Dec. or broke warm in February proves the point. I think it would also be wise to let more of December play out before we categorize what this month is. I mentioned yesterday that this coming week was going to be more like normal or a step in the right direction temp wise. GFS temps and forecast based largely on GFS data are finally realizing that there will be a storm in the NE and our temps in the SE will reflect that. It now appears that we will be below normal here most of this week.

[Webberweather53]

I remember the winter of 76-77 very well. The thing I remember the most was how everyone was calling for a cold winter in the east. The Fall was cold. Then came December and it turned warm. There were plenty of cliff divers even back then who said, "Oh we made a mistake it's going to be a warm winter" January came and then everyone said we were right the first time. Now it's going to be a cold winter.... Sound familiar? I have been sitting back laughing at all the posters cancelling winter in early December. Especially the ones who say that the winter of 1976-77 analog is off the table.

 

December 1976 was not warm at all in the eastern US or in the Carolinas for that matter, it was one of the fastest starts we've ever observed to an El Nino winter, looks like a top 5 coldest El Nino December since 1900 in NC & that's quite a statement considering the standardized anomalies were modestly cold at best, which is a clear indication that El Ninos rarely start off frigid in the US in general...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

December 1963 is a huge outlier to this trend however, and is easily the coldest El Nino December in the southeastern US we have on record...

 

Of course, that month was capped off by the incredible New Year's Eve snowstorm across the upper south & into the Tennessee Valley, but events like this early in the winter are comparatively rare from the standpoint of an El Nino, the bulk of the cold/snow (compared to climo & in general) tends to occur in Jan & especially February, and NC is no different

 

Here's the excerpt that goes with the following picture...

I've noticed (for reasons I've yet to figure out) that in general, El Ninos have a tendency to pack in their big snows in the heart of the winter & display a very distinct peak in activity in Jan & Feb. While La Ninas are significantly more even tempered & peak in March. I looked through the NC Winter Storm Database that goes back to 1958 and divided the the late Oct-Apr period into 5 day increments (to capture the beginning & end of the months, instead of a week where I would have to deal w/ a considerable amount of overlap) & normalized the data to account for the difference in the # of + vs - ENSO events, & the 5 day blocks at the end of the month. (I took out the NW flow events, esp. later in the record, which may have been undersampled/reported in the antecedent decades & I plan to eventually present some of this data over the coming few weeks regarding Equatorial VP & NC Winter storms in seeing the robust connection I observed w/ 30-60E 200hpa VP.). As I mentioned above, you should see that El Nino winters esp. tend to have a more pronounced peak in wintry wx in the heart of the winter vs La Ninas from late December through mid Feb & a minor secondary peak is evident in April. The largest advantage in winter storm frequency w/ La Ninas tends to be around the edges of winter, particularly in early-mid December & March

[mackerel_sky]

Tomorrow alone will be 10-20 below normal for most wedge areas, that should help with "warm" December.

[superjames1992]

I think there's a pretty good chance the CAD areas end December below normal. We'll see. Snow chances look minimal until at least late month, of course.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

December 1976 was not warm at all in the eastern US or in the Carolinas for that matter, it was one of the fastest starts we've ever observed to an El Nino winter, looks like a top 5 coldest El Nino December since 1900 in NC & that's quite a statement considering the standardized anomalies were modestly cold at best, which is a clear indication that El Ninos rarely start off frigid in the US in general...

 

I was referring to the stretch of 60's for highs a week before Christmas. I know that's not a torch..... but neither is this weather we are experiencing right now.

[jshetley]

Well if we cant get a storm threat around here, I'd like the 60 and 70 degree temps back. 50s for highs and dry is awful.

[Cold Rain]

Well if we cant get a storm threat around here, I'd like the 60 and 70 degree temps back. 50s for highs and dry is awful.

Lol

[Webberweather53]

I was referring to the stretch of 60's for highs a week before Christmas. I know that's not a torch..... but neither is this weather we are experiencing right now.

 

Honestly, it's all relative... compared to the cold we experienced in November & probably what's more than likely coming down the pipe later this winter, this is a blowtorch, lol. 

[Webberweather53]

Wow, the similarities between the day 1-5 Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies & the regressed December temps w/ a 2 month lag on high northern hemisphere snowpack are pretty amazing...

 

Fast forward one month...

[LithiaWx]

I remember the winter of 76-77 very well. The thing I remember the most was how everyone was calling for a cold winter in the east. The Fall was cold. Then came December and it turned warm. There were plenty of cliff divers even back then who said, "Oh we made a mistake it's going to be a warm winter" January came and then everyone said we were right the first time. Now it's going to be a cold winter.... Sound familiar? I have been sitting back laughing at all the posters cancelling winter in early December. Especially the ones who say that the winter of 1976-77 analog is off the table.

The analog year doesn't matter. The wall to wall cold winter was what I was saying is off the table. I wasn't alive In the late 70's to remember but whichever season that was. That's the one I'm refering to and the one some of the blogger I need to sell a subscription mets were cranking out in October. Thank you.

[burgertime]

The analog year doesn't matter. The wall to wall cold winter was what I was saying is off the table. I wasn't alive In the late 70's to remember but whichever season that was. That's the one I'm refering to and the one some of the blogger I need to sell a subscription mets were cranking out in October. Thank you.

 

What happens if Dec ends up below normal as well as Jan. and Feb.? Wouldn't they technically be right about wall to wall cold even if Dec. is just -1 say here in NC?

[FallsLake]

What happens if Dec ends up below normal as well as Jan. and Feb.? Wouldn't they technically be right about wall to wall cold even if Dec. is just -1 say here in NC?

I think that is going to happen(...at least the Dec part..). Many of us may stay in the 30s tomorrow; and then after that not much in the way of warm temps in the LR... 

[LithiaWx]

What happens if Dec ends up below normal as well as Jan. and Feb.? Wouldn't they technically be right about wall to wall cold even if Dec. is just -1 say here in NC?

A below normal December for the east and northern central plains is highly unlikely. Just because NC ends up below doesn't mean the rest of that area is.

Let's all be real here, a below normal December isn't in the cards for the areas that some were looking at. The same people and places I'm calling out as likely wrong.

For much of the nation a wall to wall winter is off the table when you see what December has for the country.

[dsaur]

I think N AL to N GA to NW SC to the Charlotte area is quite possibly going to be one of the best performers vs normal in 14-15 (quite possibly including ZR Sleet). If things fall into place like I expect, this COULD be one of those rare winters where KATL gets, say for example, 8" for the season (400% of climo) vs., say, 12" in RDU (200% of climo) (in addition to possibly sig ZR Sleet). Or, say, 5" for KATL (250%) vs 9" for KRDU (150%) plus maybe sig ZR Sleet. These are the kinds of things that analogs suggest would be realistic possibilities. Related to this, analogs suggest that the SE as a whole could easily obliterate the NE anomaly %wise. See 1939-40, for example. Whereas many of the NE areas were only near the 100-125% range, much of the inland SE got 200-400%. Of course, NYC-Boston's 100-125% is still much higher than the SE's 200-400%.

Fixed it for you.  Sounds good, Larry.  Almost like your Savannah call even   If it's cold enough for the nasty zr, then it's cold enough for sleet, and since your analog year was a cold year, then all levels of the column will be colder, thus the refreeze, and thus the sleet.  T

[packbacker]

Just comparing the 18z GEFS v/s the 0z from last night, just gets better and better...

 

18z bottom, 0z top

[Bob Chill]

Agree Pack. The look keeps getting better and not moving back in time. Looks very nino'ish with north American height patterns on the means.

[RONALD B]

https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/541720124219465730/photo/1 all of the models ensembels are looking good around the 20th !

[WidreMann]

Wow, the similarities between the day 1-5 Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies & the regressed December temps w/ a 2 month lag on high northern hemisphere snowpack are pretty amazing...

 

Fast forward one month...

Greenland doesn't match at all, and Eurasia is only a weak match. Doesn't bode well.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Greenland doesn't match at all, and Eurasia is only a weak match. Doesn't bode well.

  Surely you jest.... That's not a bad match at all. Hang onto your hats folks. I think we will be headed down hill quick once the pattern changes. On that 2nd image from the latest GEFS, posted above, you can see some warmer anomalies showing up just off the southern tip of Greenland. That's the signal I was waiting to see. If it continues to show up and get stronger as we get closer to game-time, then we will know. The next thing we should be watching for is the position of the PV. I would love to see it camp out just south of Hudson Bay.

   As some posters have already mentioned central Canada will get cold quick without a Pacific influence just due to their latitude.

[LithiaWx]

Just comparing the 18z GEFS v/s the 0z from last night, just gets better and better...

18z bottom, 0z top

The 18z looks meh, Nino look as Bob chill said, but heights just don't look low enough over Canada to give the U.S. a decent source of cold air to draw from. The problem with those maps remain the lower heights and coldest air over in Russia on the wrong side of the globe. An epic US and SE winter can't commence until that changes. As of this post we haven't seen ANYTHING to suggest that change is coming. Some mets continue to suggest an epic winter is coming but I haven't seen the evidence yet that the arctic hammer with snowstorms is coming yet. It may end up happening but until we see some long range indicators of a major flip we wait and the anxiety builds for me.

[packbacker]

The 18z looks meh, Nino look as Bob chill said, but heights just don't look low enough over Canada to give the U.S. a decent source of cold air to draw from. The problem with those maps remain the lower heights and coldest air over in Russia on the wrong side of the globe. An epic US and SE winter can't commence until that changes. As of this post we haven't seen ANYTHING to suggest that change is coming. Some mets continue to suggest an epic winter is coming but I haven't seen the evidence yet that the arctic hammer with snowstorms is coming yet. It may end up happening but until we see some long range indicators of a major flip we wait and the anxiety builds for me.

 

Yeah, I would be worried if I lived where you do...for the rest of us it's a great look to build upon.  Nobody is saying it's going to snow on the 22nd, we are just saying we have west coast ridging over the top, blocking setting up nicely, -EPO...so with a -AO, -NAO, -EPA, +PNA building nicely, things are evolving as we had hoped.  I have no earthly idea what you are hoping this to look like at this point.  See the composite of analogs below of some of the coldest/snowy winters ever to occur in the east, what are the heights in Canada.  

[max100]

GFS ensembles heading to the ECMWF longer term. Looks stormy, cold for holidays. Ensembles 18z Dec 23.

 

 

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi

[RONALD B]

Yeah, I would be worried if I lived where you do...for the rest of us it's a great look to build upon.  Nobody is saying it's going to snow on the 22nd, we are just saying we have west coast ridging over the top, blocking setting up nicely, -EPO...so with a -AO, -NAO, -EPA, +PNA building nicely, things are evolving as we had hoped.  I have no earthly idea what you are hoping this to look like at this point.  See the composite of analogs below of some of the coldest/snowy winters ever to occur in the east, what are the heights in Canada.  

Am saying if this happens NC will see some snow or winter weather, of some kind perfect set up . west based neg nao is a great sign for winter .

[LithiaWx]

Yeah, I would be worried if I lived where you do...for the rest of us it's a great look to build upon.  Nobody is saying it's going to snow on the 22nd, we are just saying we have west coast ridging over the top, blocking setting up nicely, -EPO...so with a -AO, -NAO, -EPA, +PNA building nicely, things are evolving as we had hoped.  I have no earthly idea what you are hoping this to look like at this point.  See the composite of analogs below of some of the coldest/snowy winters ever to occur in the east, what are the heights in Canada.

I don't see any blocking that helps the SE on the GFS Ensembles. Maybe Im not looking at it correctly but I don't see it. If anything it looks like a +AO on the 18Z map posted above. I'm hoping for a major pattern flip that gets the SE cold and snowy. I don't see that yet. Also I don't live in Waycross, my climate isn't that far off from NC, it snows here almost every year.

[pcbjr]

GFS ensembles heading to the ECMWF longer term. Looks stormy, cold for holidays. Ensembles 18z Dec 23.

 

 

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi

 

 

[packbacker]

Are you a troll? Serious question

 

I know, I can't believe I am even responding to that post.

 

Am saying if this happens NC will see some snow or winter weather, of some kind perfect set up . west based neg nao is a great sign for winter .

 

It's a great look but it's only the 18z GEFS, Euro is close, hopefully things keep getting better.