Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

[LithiaWx]

Agreed....and don't bother arguing with him, pointless.

I can't help that I'm right and there are countless weenies who don't want to hear it.

[Cold Rain]

Putting lipstick on a pig doesn't change the fact that it's still a pig. Unless we get a colder 500mb pattern on this side of the globe big sections of the SE have a near zero percent chance at snow. What does it matter if we get closer to a snow pattern but are still missing key pieces that would make a storm of significance possible?

Your position seems to be that a colder pattern that might not be ideal for wintry weather in the SE but serves as a good stepping stone toward a favorable snow pattern is not a good thing. That right? Because I haven't read one poster say that the upcoming pattern is going to immediately bring snow and ice all over the SE. But maybe I missed it; it has been a busy day.

[FallsLake]

Dealing with the system next week, RAH mentioned they think the cold will be chasing the rain. But the 18z GFS does indicate some change over. 

 

18Z MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: THE MODELS DIFFER WITH REGARD TO
THE SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. IT IS STILL QUICKER
IN THE GFS...WHICH HELPS KEEP THE PRECIP OFFSHORE AND THE FORECAST
DRY. THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION CONTINUES TO GENERATE PRECIP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FROM MONDAY AFT/EVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE
12Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE LESS ROBUST WITH THE PRECIP...SUGGESTING THAT
IT MAY BE CONTINUING TO TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS. GIVEN THE GOOD
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE PRECIP CHANCES...WILL CONTINUE
TO FORECAST SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN BETWEEN 18Z MONDAY AND
12Z TUESDAY. DESPITE LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AROUND 32 DEGREES IN THE NW
AND MID 30S ELSEWHERE...EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO BE CHASING THE PRECIP
AND THUS DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SNOW AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER P-TYPE
ISSUES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_090_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=dom_precip_type&fhr=090&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141206+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

 

[DaculaWeather]

I can't help that I'm right and there are countless weenies who don't want to hear it.

What research have you presented that says you are right?

 

I'll say this... I think 100% of the people on this forum would lay their money on Bob and Eric before they would on you. You think very highly of yourself for some odd reason.

[FallsLake]

Your position seems to be that a colder pattern that might not be ideal for wintry weather in the SE but serves as a good stepping stone toward a favorable snow pattern is not a good thing. That right? Because I haven't read one poster say that the upcoming pattern is going to immediately bring snow and ice all over the SE. But maybe I missed it; it has been a busy day.

LOL--- I guess I'm your one poster...

[burgertime]

I can't help that I'm right and there are countless weenies who don't want to hear it.

 

I don't know man it seems at times this year you've been contrarian simply for the sake of being contrarian. Maybe it's just because it's hard to inflect tone via a message board. Now this of course is the pot calling the kettle black as I've done my fair share of trolling on here. I said before I'm punting until around Christmas on a better pattern but there is a big difference between picking up on clues through weather modeling and  discussing it and being a total weenie. 

Either way this convo is probably better fit for the banter thread.

[POWERSTROKE]

I can't help that I'm right and there are countless weenies who don't want to hear it.

U the man now that most red taggers are gone. I'm waiting on you before I put plows ans salters on this winter. Keep up great work

[LithiaWx]

What research have you presented that says you are right?

 

I'll say this... I think 100% of the people on this forum would lay their money on Bob and Eric before they would on you. You think very highly of yourself for some odd reason.

Nobody has said I'm wrong because I've posted nothing but the cold hard truth. What comes next could be good, I'm on the same bandwagon as bob and Eric. I just don't see the silver lining to a 500mb pattern that doesn't produce.

[chapelhillwx]

I can't help that I'm right

A risky statement to make 10-15+ days out, but only time will tell I guess.

[Cold Rain]

A risky statement to make 10-15+ days out, but only time will tell I guess.

But right about what? That's what's hard to tell.

[Cold Rain]

LOL--- I guess I'm your one poster...

Sounds like the NWS doesn't necessarily disagree with you.

[FallsLake]

Sounds like the NWS doesn't necessarily disagree with you.

It would be a huge win to get some snow showers within this current pattern. Not greedy, or do I have high expectations, but it will be interesting to see if this materializes.

[Webberweather53]

I can't help that I'm right and there are countless weenies who don't want to hear it.

 

Nobody has said I'm wrong because I've posted nothing but the cold hard truth. What comes next could be good, I'm on the same bandwagon as bob and Eric. I just don't see the silver lining to a 500mb pattern that doesn't produce.

 

Yeah, ok...

 ...To perceive a little straw in another's eye but not to notice a log on his own...

 

Having a pompous attitude & degrading demeanor certainly isn't a professional nor a mature way to approach this.

[Bob Chill]

Nobody has said I'm wrong because I've posted nothing but the cold hard truth. What comes next could be good, I'm on the same bandwagon as bob and Eric. I just don't see the silver lining to a 500mb pattern that doesn't produce.

The silver lining is it depicts an important part of the process. We aren't flipping inside of 2 weeks. Nobody ever said that. The optimism stems from moving in the right direction. Ensembles are continuing to look very much like if not identical to week 3 on the weeklies. Week 4 was sweet for all of us. So far so good.

I'm kinda stoked for the prospects in the se overall or I wouldn't post here. Southern stream has been very active and shows no signs of abating. I would guess that Dec snow chances in ga through the Carolinas and TN valley are higher than normal this year. But we all fight climo. My yard averages 3" in Dec and skunks are normal too. We'll have a much clearer picture in a week to 10 days.

[metwannabe]

Nobody has said I'm wrong because I've posted nothing but the cold hard truth. What comes next could be good, I'm on the same bandwagon as bob and Eric. I just don't see the silver lining to a 500mb pattern that doesn't produce.

The silver lining is IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT PATTERN THAN THE BS PATTERN WE HAVE NOW. How can you not be excited over a coming pattern change No one said it will be perfect or a good winter pattern . But it's better than what we have now and will put us closer to what we want.

Damn I'm starting to think you would be upset with a 6 inch snowfall with temps in the mid 30s that melts by dinner...... Good lord

[jburns]

Ok.  I tried to address this nicely earlier.  Lets try a different approach.  I am close to giving more than one person a 5 day break.  This constant bickering in this thread must stop now.  If you end up getting a time out and IM me to b**ch about it, I'll double it.  There has been more than fair warning, and I don't intend on dealing with this crap for the entire winter.

[LithiaWx]

The silver lining is it depicts an important part of the process. We aren't flipping inside of 2 weeks. Nobody ever said that. The optimism stems from moving in the right direction. Ensembles are continuing to look very much like if not identical to week 3 on the weeklies. Week 4 was sweet for all of us. So far so good.

I'm kinda stoked for the prospects in the se overall or I wouldn't post here. Southern stream has been very active and shows no signs of abating. I would guess that Dec snow chances in ga through the Carolinas and TN valley are higher than normal this year. But we all fight climo. My yard averages 3" in Dec and skunks are normal too. We'll have a much clearer picture in a week to 10 days.

Fair enough, my comments weren't directed towards you. I would hate for anything I say to cause you reason to not want to post in this forum. I agreed with everything you said.

[jburns]

Just so no one misses this.

 

Ok.  I tried to address this nicely earlier.  Lets try a different approach.  I am close to giving more than one person a 5 day break.  This constant bickering in this thread must stop now.  If you end up getting a time out and IM me to b**ch about it, I'll double it.  There has been more than fair warning, and I don't intend on dealing with this crap for the entire winter.

[mackerel_sky]

Your position seems to be that a colder pattern that might not be ideal for wintry weather in the SE but serves as a good stepping stone toward a favorable snow pattern is not a good thing. That right? Because I haven't read one poster say that the upcoming pattern is going to immediately bring snow and ice all over the SE. But maybe I missed it; it has been a busy day.

It's been a busy day on the street corner poppin and lockin!?

Looks normal to below this week and loving the STJ action, feels like Seattle up in this joint

[lugnuts]

Classic sign of a Bi-Polar vortex

[FallsLake]

It's been a busy day on the street corner poppin and lockin!?

Looks normal to below this week and loving the STJ action, feels like Seattle up in this joint

At least it doesn't feel like Miami. We do need to keep one eye open for next week. Again at this point a single snow flake would be welcome.  

[FallsLake]

Hudson Bay is almost frozen over. That will do it for any open water in Canada (which will not moderate temps). So once we can get some cold air into Canada or a pattern that will allow cold air to build it should have no problems getting (or staying) cold.

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_v3/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif

[LithiaWx]

Meh pattern is about to deliver some upper 40's and low 50's for the next few day to N. GA. Batman you were on target.

[Batman]

Meh pattern is about to deliver some upper 40's and low 50's for the next few day to N. GA. Batman you were on target.

It's not the Siberian Express for sure, but anything that keeps a SE ridge out of here in the winter is a positive for me!

[Webberweather53]

In light of some of the ongoing & unneccessary frustration of the current pattern, I should mention that according to NESIS & Kocin/Uccellini, the winter storm that recently struck the northeastern US around Thanksgiving is only the 2nd NESIS snowstorm on record in the month of November (the other occurring on November 25-27 1971) & is the first we've ever observed in November in a warm ENSO Neutral &/or El Nino winter... Fairly historic in its own right.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/docs/kocin-and-uccellini-2004.pdf

 

[GaWx]

1) Thanks Webber. So, there's little reason to feel pressure in case we don't actually get a SSW.

2) The 0Z GFS is the first one of the last six without a nice ridge developing over W Canada ~12/20.

[jburns]

While you are all sleeping, I want to leave a reminder that this thread needs to be better today than it was yesterday. I don't appreciate being made to act like a dick, so lets keep things settled down so I can get back to normal and we can all concentrate on the weather instead of each other.

[DaculaWeather]

Larry Cosgrove this morning:

 

"After the barrage of seemingly endless computer model runs that indicated a long spell of mild temperatures across the continent, quite a few people who review or forecast weather threw out their winter forecasts. Out went the mostly "cold and snowy" descriptions, in came the terms of "blowtorch" and "balmy" for the DJF period 2014-2015. As I have often cautioned in releasing my predictions, outcomes shown by the numerical depictions are often short-term deviations from what eventually occurs.

 

So it should come as little surprise that beginning with the Friday 12z December 5 model runs, signs of high-latitude ridging, southern branch storminess and a slow decline in temperature were seen in the 11 - 15 day time frame. These shifts continued through Saturday, and affirms my belief that we are indeed headed into a "rough patch' covering the last week of December, and most of January, February into the first half of March. I have not changed my winter outlook one iota, for the reason that I thought there would be an extensive mild phase in this month that ultimately gave way to Arctic air and cases for more widespread snow.

 

The reason why the current "El Nino" type configuration (split flow with mild ImP and mT air mass dominance) will shift to a highly amplified set-up featuring +PNA, -AO, and -NAO elements has to do with the active southern branch flow. What the models, and the analog formula, are saying is that a stronger disturbance will take shape in Texas, swing through the Deep South, and then move up along and off of the Eastern Seaboard. I am uncertain as to which particular storm will be the change mechanism, but the analog sample (20 members) points toward a new shortwave moving out of northern Mexico on December 17, translating to a colder, stronger low pressure center near Cape Hatteras NC on the 21st. Perhaps it is the same feature shown by the ECMWF model family over Texas in ten days. But I call your attention to the fact that when you compare ALL of the numerical versions to the analog-derived forecast, you see how very similar the maps are. Most notable: besides the storm threat, check out the extensive high-latitude ridge display. Yes, +PNA, -AO, -NAO coming up on tap!

 

I am not predicting a rapid change to a colder scenario in the U.S., but insist that the southern branch storm system will be the catalyst. This impulse may become an entrenched cA vortex over QC and ON at some point in the last week of December, after bringing copious amounts of rain with some inland snows. The snowpack should start to increase in coverage over the Midwest, Great Lakes and Appalachia during the 11 - 15 day time frame, leading of course to colder temperature forecasts east of the Rocky Mountains. I suspect we are going to be dealing with a mild West vs. cold Central and East set-up by Christmas Day.

 

All I want for Christmas is 498dcm cAk 500MB vortex over Lake Michigan....and a moderate Modoki El Nino with a persistent moisture fetch from the Caribbean Sea to the Grand Banks.

 

You can figure it out.

 

"

[Jonesing for a chase]

Anyone take a gander at the Euro last night? Looks like it closes off the NE storm and we swirl in an island of below 0 850 heights for most of the run. LOL

[FallsLake]

Anyone take a gander at the Euro last night? Looks like it closes off the NE storm and we swirl in an island of below 0 850 heights for most of the run. LOL

No I didn't. But it goes along with the idea that many will be below normal during this "warm" pattern.

 

6z GFS has the cold. Nothing very cold until maybe right at the end (...strange look to it). But by day 12 we're definitely already in a normal cold pattern. Even has a fantasy event:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_300_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=300&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141207+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0