Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

[LithiaWx]

I'm certainly not pulling a rabbit out of the hat here & made a very long & drawn out post on my reasoning to this a few days back in here & you should probably look over it..The cold is not on the wrong side of the globe, it's exactly where it should be @ this stage in the winter & this is to be expected in high northern hemisphere snowpack years... It gets cold in the US in Nov, then in Dec the arctic hammer hits & builds up in Eurasia first, then North America gets its turn in January...

Oct N hem high snow cover regressed November temps..

This year...

Same as the top, now w/ December & January...

I'm saying you don't know what's going to happen. My point is the pattern we are currently in sucks for the U.S. Past performance does not guarantee future results. If the weather followed an exact path based on history and analogs Long range forecasting would be easy.

[deltadog03]

euro looks a bit different..might be further west.  energy dropping down near GA it appears.

 

actually the carolina's but def further south.

[Webberweather53]

I'm saying you don't know what's going to happen. My point is the pattern we are currently in sucks for the U.S. Past performance does not guarantee future results. If the weather followed an exact path based on history and analogs Long range forecasting would be easy.

 

You're entirely missing the point here, for one, nobody ever (or @ least should have) said it was easy & it's obvious to anyone who has been around meteorology long enough & has fought on the front lines that this is an inexact science, but to merely approach this with a closed mind & reside upon uncertainty (perhaps due to prior negative experiences) alone to attempt discredit their ideas isn't wise. It is bothersome of all bloggers here (some who are very knowledgable in their own right) you are going to attack me for trying & claim I'm somehow "pulling the rabbit out of the hat" when, if anything I have presented extremely lengthy, detailed, educational posts, with extra support w/ references also often made to scientific literature, which certainly dwarfs staring aimlessly into long range model guidance that is a recurring theme throughout a multitude of weather forums.

[Shawn]

Guys, Larry & Webber alluded to this a day or two ago... this is real.  When the pattern flips... it's going to be fun.  Maybe even too cold at times.  Definitely looking forward to this January.  (yes,suppressed storm track joke there 2010 cuba big SC storm comes to mind)

[Tacoma]

You're entirely missing the point here, for one, nobody ever (or @ least should have) said it was easy & it's obvious to anyone who has been around meteorology long enough & has fought on the front lines that this is an inexact science, but to merely approach this with a closed mind & reside upon uncertainty (perhaps due to prior negative experiences) alone to attempt discredit their ideas isn't wise. It is bothersome of all bloggers here (some who are very knowledgable in their own right) you are going to attack me for trying & claim I'm somehow "pulling the rabbit out of the hat" when, if anything I have presented extremely lengthy, detailed, educational posts, with extra support w/ references also often made to scientific literature, which certainly dwarfs staring aimlessly into long range model guidance that is a recurring theme throughout a multitude of weather forums.

I'm with you Webberweather, I appreciate your knowledge and enjoying reading your post.  Keep up the good work.  

[DaculaWeather]

I'm with you Webberweather, I appreciate your knowledge and enjoying reading your post.  Keep up the good work.  

Agreed. Maybe instead of staring at a computer model and blindly saying "this sucks" without taking the time to do any research, some people here could learn quite a few things from Eric. 

 

MariettaWX, you are the worse when it comes to being negative and you flip more than the models. Just yesterday you made a post about how you were "on the bandwagon" for cold, then you come on here now attacking credible evidence to justify the cold. Which is it dude?

[Met1985]

Got this from the TN forum. An update about the AO from Dr. Cohen.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Bump. What is being discussed here is being talked about by Dr. Cohen in his latest blog from yesterday. It is a very good read and talks about the coming weeks to next month. Goes along with what Webber has posted well.

[JoMo]

On that note, Is this another year where the magical SSW event gets chased all through winter and never happens or happens too late? Cohen was talking about the SSW happening in late Nov, and then early Dec, and then mid-Dec, and then late Dec, and now it may happen in January..... 

[Cold Rain]

Ladies and gentlemen, a SSW is not necessary to have a -AO and a cold winter. No doubt that it can help, but it most certainly is not necessary. Thank you and good morning. Carry on.

[packbacker]

Ladies and gentlemen, a SSW is not necessary to have a -AO and a cold winter. No doubt that it can help, but it most certainly is not necessary. Thank you and good morning. Carry on.

Agreed! But a SSW is coming :-)

[Cold Rain]

Agreed! But a SSW is coming :-)

I'm onboard. Odds favor it!

[franklin NCwx]

The 0z and 6z gefs continue to show a better pattern towards the 18th -20th timeframe.

[packbacker]

I'm onboard. Odds favor it!

 

The warming at 10mb and really at all levels is getting better, we are almost getting inside the 10 day mark where we can start watching the Euro...top is day 11 and bottom is day 15, courtesy of AmWx model page....

[MichaelJ]

Agreed. Maybe instead of staring at a computer model and blindly saying "this sucks" without taking the time to do any research, some people here could learn quite a few things from Eric. 

 

MariettaWX, you are the worse when it comes to being negative and you flip more than the models. Just yesterday you made a post about how you were "on the bandwagon" for cold, then you come on here now attacking credible evidence to justify the cold. Which is it dude?

True, people living and dying by every model run without seeing the big picture need to understand that the GFS is crap when it comes to picking up a pattern change until very late in the game. Webber is right that most indicators are trending a very good direction for us and has NEVER claimed he knew exactly what will happen. One thing is for sure, the knowledgeable people here like Webber, Delta, Bob Chill etc... will pick up on it long before the physics impaired GFS does.The next 2 weeks of milder weather will make in unbearable around here with all the cliff divers posting incessantly about the sucky pattern we are in with no change in sight but after the Solstice, things will get better IMO

[Cold Rain]

True, people living and dying by every model run without seeing the big picture need to understand that the GFS is crap when it comes to picking up a pattern change until very late in the game. Webber is right that most indicators are trending a very good direction for us and has NEVER claimed he knew exactly what will happen. One thing is for sure, the knowledgeable people here like Webber, Delta, Bob Chill etc... will pick up on it long before the physics impaired GFS does.The next 2 weeks of milder weather will make in unbearable around here with all the cliff divers posting incessantly about the sucky pattern we are in with no change in sight but after the Solstice, things will get better IMO

That's a good post right there.

[mackerel_sky]

Agreed! But a SSW is coming :-)

Suddenly Snowy Winter?

[FallsLake]

So before the big pattern flip we still have some interesting weather. One is the cool down next week. Day 6 (6z GFS) shows dew points in the teens for the NC piedmont(...really low for being in a warm period):

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=12&model_dd=06&model_init_hh=06&fhour=144&parameter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

[POWERSTROKE]

Rob and JB both say last ten days of the month is when fun could start

[metwannabe]

Am I the only one concerned about the fact that all the cold is gonna be in the other side of the globe when the pattern flips???

[mackerel_sky]

Rob and JB both say last ten days of the month is when fu could start

Is that a good fu or bad fu?

[calculus1]

Rob and JB both say last ten days of the month is when fu could start

 

Whoa, there!  They really said that FU could start at the end of the month?  I thought we were moving towards a positive pattern change here.  Who knew that the weather was getting ready to go all vindictive on us?

 

 

Edit:  Just slightly ninja-ed by Mack...  Argh!!

[mackerel_sky]

Am I the only one concerned about the fact that all the cold is gonna be in the other side of the globe when the pattern flips???

No, but the ssw will happen and slide the arctic air from Siberia and Asia right into the E and SE !

There's no cold air around and NC is close to some ice on Monday, so no real worries.

[mackerel_sky]

Whoa, there! They really said that FU could start at the end of the month? I thought we were moving towards a positive pattern change here. Who knew that the weather was getting ready to go all vindictive on us?

Edit: Just slightly ninja-ed by Mack... Argh!!

It's a big fu to the torch and haters !

[FallsLake]

No, but the ssw will happen and slide the arctic air from Siberia and Asia right into the E and SE !

There's no cold air around and NC is close to some ice on Monday, so no real worries.

That's right, all we need to do is drop the overall temps another 10 to 15 degrees and we're in business. Sometimes when you get that Siberian Express all many of us get is just cold. We just need it cold enough...

[Bob Chill]

Am I the only one concerned about the fact that all the cold is gonna be in the other side of the globe when the pattern flips???

Ensemble 850 and 2m temps in the d10-15 range get very muddy because of spread. It's better to rely on height patterns and draw your own conclusions. As soon as the pac jet gets cut off from canada, our source region would cool in a hurry.

Assuming things transpire as advertised, as we go forward in time the nw part of Canada will build a pool of neg anoms and the temp maps at closer range will look much tastier. Surface HP's at higher latitudes in winter months can produce very cold temps in a hurry as long as the mid/upper level flow isn't blasting in from the Pac.

My half full mood this morning noticed that the ensembles are advertising Pac flow getting cut off sooner than the euro weekly run. Imo- next week's ensemble runs are going to have the board pretty stoked. If things break right, we'll be tracking legit threats during the last week of the month.

[Jon]

The 0z and 6z gefs continue to show a better pattern towards the 18th -20th timeframe.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_63.png

Yeah, what more do people want to see for an ensemble mean at 384 hours? Finally seeing what the canadian ensembles sniffed out first. Not bad for an ensemble mean look for the 22nd of Dec.

 

[RONALD B]

Ensemble 850 and 2m temps in the d10-15 range get very muddy because of spread. It's better to rely on height patterns and draw your own conclusions. As soon as the pac jet gets cut off from canada, our source region would cool in a hurry.

Assuming things transpire as advertised, as we go forward in time the nw part of Canada will build a pool of neg anoms and the temp maps at closer range will look much tastier. Surface HP's at higher latitudes in winter months can produce very cold temps in a hurry as long as the mid/upper level flow isn't blasting in from the Pac.

My half full mood this morning noticed that the ensembles are advertising Pac flow getting cut off sooner than the euro weekly run. Imo- next week's ensemble runs are going to have the board pretty stoked. If things break right, we'll be tracking legit threats during the last week of the month.

Great post .  really good forcaster's just knows before hand an really only lol at bad models .

[Cold Rain]

Jon, I think some are seeing the red colors and freaking out. If we get the PNA spike and a -EPO that the pattern is progressing toward, cross polar flow should set up, allowing cold in Asia to be transported over to this side of the hemisphere. And as Bob said, without the Pacific hose, Canada will cool.

[Bob Chill]

Jon, I think some are seeing the red colors and freaking out. If we get the PNA spike and a -EPO that the pattern is progressing toward, cross polar flow should set up, allowing cold in Asia to be transported over to this side of the hemisphere. And as Bob said, without the Pacific hose, Canada will cool.

Imho- we can get plenty of cold without cross polar flow. -epo's themselves build it up nicely in Canada.

Another promising sign is the gefs members are trending towards a decent -ao. Even a few members with a nice -nao but I'll only believe that once it actually happens. It's been so long that I forgot what one even looks like. Lol

Gefs is doing well with pattern recognition lately. It picked up on the potential change before the euro ens. It shouldn't be discounted at all and is a useful tool.

[franklin NCwx]

Imho- we can get plenty of cold without cross polar flow. -epo's themselves build it up nicely in Canada.

Another promising sign is the gefs members are trending towards a decent -ao. Even a few members with a nice -nao but I'll only believe that once it actually happens. It's been so long that I forgot what one even looks like. Lol

Gefs is doing well with pattern recognition lately. It picked up on the potential change before the euro ens. It shouldn't be discounted at all and is a useful tool.

the key imo is the low retroing out of the goa to the Aleutians. This is pumping up the pna. It's also nice to see the center of the highest height anomalies on the east shore of Hudson bay /Davis straits area. Combine that with a stj cutting underneath and we look to have ample opportunity as we had towards a favorable Climo time.