Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

[NCSNOW]

Keeping the +pna is crucial this winter, more important than blocking imo. Without it the stj will bury us in pac flow. Like everyone else I am and always rooting for the - nao, but the Pna espeacilly this year is the biggest player from a tc standpoint. Won't be long before the I hate Seattle weather statement becomes the dominant topic of conversation. The pattern we are in hasn't and won't be conducive to sunshine. Really limiting our daily maxes and keeping them at and below normal.

[LithiaWx]

Day 9 OP Euro :

 

Different look, possibly a pattern transition?

 

 

 

[franklin NCwx]

Improvement on the gefs with Retrograding the goa low and building the higher heights over the Davis straits.

[Cold Rain]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lodi7CQBtN4

 

I don't know how to make this just appear as a clickable image instead of a link.

[LithiaWx]

Improvement on the gefs with Retrograding the goa low and building the higher heights over the Davis straits.

 

At what hour?  The end of the run looks pretty terrible to my eyes.

 

 

[metwannabe]

Improvement on the gefs with Retrograding the goa low and building the higher heights over the Davis straits.

No doubt the GfS and GEFS were an improvement

[LithiaWx]

Day 10 Euro Ensemble :

 

Ugly but not in range of when a pattern change is possible based on other indicators.

 

[packbacker]

Improvement on the gefs with Retrograding the goa low and building the higher heights over the Davis straits.

 

Agreed, just ticking away, EPS look better too.  It's like watching paint dry but it's improvement.

 

Edit:  Actually the EPS is much better by day 15, definite ridging up into AK and over the pole.  Lower heights and trough building in the SE-E.

[Webberweather53]

Right on cue, in checking out the 200mb Velocity Potential Diagrams, the CCKW has continued to decouple from the mean upward center associated w/ the MJO, as the convectively suppressed phase of the CCKW destructively interfering with the convectively enhanced phase of the MJO the RMM indices are starting to move back into the COD, which makes sense knowing the CCKW comprises a significant fraction spatially & temporally of the cloudiness, convection, & even upward motion within the MJO, & it typically contributes more to the MJO signal than any other equatorial wave type... The RMM indices will continue to retreat into the COD until the CCKW re-aligns itself with the upward phase of the MJO & that may not occur until the actual MJO signal is out over the Pacific & is encroaching on the western hemisphere. Even so, as I showed in my post yesterday & in reviewing the historical data, the Pacific MJO phases (6-8) are very conducive to helping generate a stratospheric warming event by amplifying the Aleutian Low & lowering the heights over Eastern Siberia, the Bering Sea, Alaska, & the North Pacific which will begin occur as we get into mid December...

 

The contribution of RMM indices shows that the convectively coupled Kelvin Wave passage is likely causing at least some the interference with the main MJO signal in the upper level winds (U200) & I wouldn't be too surprised to see OLR start to fall off as the MJO propagates into the Pacific...

On a side note, I was finally able to combine my El Nino strength & placement monthly US winter temp composites into one all-inclusive image. Looks like we have typical Warm Neutral-Weak Hybrid El Nino December on tap... Once again, these composites show after what in some cases is a seasonable-mild December, a dramatic flip in US temperatures occurs in January with the core shifting to the southeastern US by February.

 

 

I also threw in the precipitation composites that some will probably find useful.

[pcbjr]

Webber,

 

So from your point of view, which El Nino are you saying we're looking at?

 

I'd like to put your composites (at the bottom) into some sort of perspective.

 

 

Right on cue, in checking out the 200mb Velocity Potential Diagrams, the CCKW has continued to decouple from the mean upward center associated w/ the MJO, as the convectively suppressed phase of the CCKW destructively interfering with the convectively enhanced phase of the MJO the RMM indices are starting to move back into the COD, which makes sense knowing the CCKW comprises a significant fraction spatially & temporally of the cloudiness, convection, & even upward motion within the MJO, & it typically contributes more to the MJO signal than any other equatorial wave type... The RMM indices will continue to retreat into the COD until the CCKW re-aligns itself with the upward phase of the MJO & that may not occur until the actual MJO signal is out over the Pacific & is encroaching on the western hemisphere. Even so, as I showed in my post yesterday & in reviewing the historical data, the Pacific MJO phases (6-8) are very conducive to helping generate a stratospheric warming event by amplifying the Aleutian Low & lowering the heights over Eastern Siberia, the Bering Sea, Alaska, & the North Pacific which will begin occur as we get into mid December...

 

The contribution of RMM indices shows that the convectively coupled Kelvin Wave passage is likely causing at least some the interference with the main MJO signal in the upper level winds (U200) & I wouldn't be too surprised to see OLR start to fall off as the MJO propagates into the Pacific...

On a side note, I was finally able to combine my El Nino strength & placement monthly US winter temp composites into one all-inclusive image. Looks like we have typical Warm Neutral-Weak Hybrid El Nino December on tap... Once again, these composites show after what in some cases is a seasonable-mild December, a dramatic flip in US temperatures occurs in January with the core shifting to the southeastern US by February.

 

 

I also threw in the precipitation composites that some will probably find useful.

[Webberweather53]

Webber,

 

So from your point of view, which El Nino are you saying we're looking at?

 

I'd like to put your composites (at the bottom) into some sort of perspective.

 

Although our current set-up is receiving a boost from the +PDO, officially we're in a warm ENSO Neutral-Hybrid (East-Central Pacific based) El Nino. (I say warm ENSO neutral out of the possibility we fail to meet ONI criteria for being classified as a weak EN & 1979-80 is a good example of this.) Hybrid El Ninos are just events which fail to completely fulfill the traditional (east based) El Nino definition as w/ 1997-98 & 1982-83 the warmest water hugging the west coast of South America, or Modoki where the warmest anomalies are out over the central Pacific, all while having below normal SSTs on the west coast of South America in the NINO 1-2 region...

 

 

Hence this class of El Ninos that falls somewhere in the middle is literally a hybrid of the two types. The Hybrid composite is the best fir (in terms of ENSO alone) for this past Nov....

 

The latest weekly SST anomalies certainly has that Hybrid signature with + NINO 1-2 & the largest anoms in the central Pacific

 

 

[pcbjr]

Thanks for the reply.

 

Regrettably, you're still a  little over my head.

 

Your composites look warm through the winter (SE) for a "warm neutral" and a little cooler for a "hybrid" through Feb (and cold in Feb for the "hybrid").

 

 

I'm not sure I'm reading your composites correctly. (????)

 

Can you bring your analysis gown a notch and point out to this poor soul which composite you feel is your best "bet" going forward?

 

Thanks in advance, of course!

 

 

Although our current set-up is receiving a boost from the +PDO, officially we're in a warm ENSO Neutral-Hybrid (East-Central Pacific based) El Nino. (I say warm ENSO neutral out of the possibility we fail to meet ONI criteria for being classified as a weak EN & 1979-80 is a good example of this.) Hybrid El Ninos are just events which fail to completely fulfill the traditional (east based) El Nino definition as w/ 1997-98 & 1982-83 the warmest water hugging the west coast of South America, or Modoki where the warmest anomalies are out over the central Pacific, all while having below normal SSTs on the west coast of South America in the NINO 1-2 region...

 

 

Hence this class of El Ninos that falls somewhere in the middle is literally a hybrid of the two types. The Hybrid composite is the best fir (in terms of ENSO alone) for this past Nov....

 

The latest weekly SST anomalies certainly has that Hybrid signature with + NINO 1-2 & the largest anoms in the central Pacific

 

 

[dsaur]

Jon,

 Actually, the weeklies' week 3 (12/22-8) shows the change taking place then (warm early and cold late, which is consistent with the prior run) to bring us to the full cold week 4 (12/29-1/04).

 

Yeah I saw that, it has -20+ 850's all the way down to ATL, -10 down to ORL and -5 down to MIA.  

Sounds like a Goofy cold air intrusion map   I sure hope no one was seriously considering Dec would be void of cold air.  Such a rare thing, and not very likely. I did get 500 rain drops yesterday, and maybe 10k over night, so the wet is beating the cold in my yard, but I doubt very much the rain will beat out the cold for number of occurrences  in Dec.  T

[Jon]

Last time I posted on the CFSv2 for January it was just catching on to the cold over Hudson bay, now it's pretty clear it still likes cold over the east coast for January. Not bad eh?

 

4x daily runs averaged over the last 7 days

 

last 3 days

 

As you can see, since the 2nd the CFS daily runs have been incredibly generous to the SE.

[Webberweather53]

Thanks for the reply.

 

Regrettably, you're still a  little over my head.

 

Your composites look warm through the winter (SE) for a "warm neutral" and a little cooler for a "hybrid" through Feb (and cold in Feb for the "hybrid").

 

US-Winter-Monthly-Temps-DJF-El-Nino-Placement-Intensity-878x1024.jpg

 

I'm not sure I'm reading your composites correctly. (????)

 

Can you bring your analysis gown a notch and point out to this poor soul which composite you feel is your best "bet" going forward?

 

Thanks in advance, of course!

 

Sure!! Well, pardon me for that, I will try to explain things in a little bit easier from here. Ok, so I'm sure you know what an El Nino is, where you have a cut-down (slowing) of the easterly trade winds which are blowing warm water from the eastern Pacific & loading it in the West Pacific Warmpool located closer to northeast Australia & Indionesia, and this allows the warm water to slosh back eastward towards South America in the form of equatorial Kelvin Waves and if the NINO 3.4 region according to the CPC maintains average anomalies of .5C or higher for 5 successive tri-monthlies or 3 month periods we have an El Nino. A "traditional" or east-based El Nino like the "Super" El Nino of 1997-98 for example is where you have the warm water tucked right up against South America, displaced as far to the east as possible in the Pacific with the tongue of warm water extending to the east within the so called Equatorial Counter Current that runs directly on the equator in the opposite direction of the trade winds which blow most of the water to the east. In an El Nino this counter-current becomes stronger than normal because the trade winds that are opposing it slacken...

 

Without going into extreme detail & technical terminology however, a Modoki El Nino (Modoki meaning in Japanese similar but different) is also an El Nino, but in this case the waters of the central Pacific are warmer than normal, while the area up against South America is actually cool. Just so this puts away any confusion you may still have, the picture on the left is a "traditional" or East Based El Nino, the one on the right is a Modoki or Central Pacific El Nino..

 

All I'm doing by assigning the "Hybrid" El Nino type is that these El Ninos don't completely fit either the Modoki or the Traditional El Nino definitions where either the warmest water relative to average is up against South America like an east-based or traditional El Nino as w/ the big 1997-98 event, or where the warmest water is in the central pacific and it is cooler than average up against South America like a Modoki. These "Hybrid" El Ninos simply have characteristics of both Modoki & East Based El Ninos, (a blend of these two El Nino types if you will) and are somewhere in the middle between the two types. However, they do not fully meet their definitions, thus I assigned them to their own entirely different class. I don't blame you for being confused because I see this kind of confusion even in scientific literature and with professional mets over what events should be classified as Modoki or Traditional, and I understood why that was the case several months ago. They essentially put themselves into a box by assigning only 2 possible categories for El Nino events (aside from their intensity of course) because these El Ninos really weren't one or other per say and it were these "hybrid" El Ninos that caused much of the bickering & disorder among many who attempted to categorize the events. You can see below in this composite of "Hybrid" El Nino SSTs it essentially meets the Modoki & Traditional El Nino definitions halfway... The warmest waters relative to normal (in the deeper reds, etc.) are not against South America and are a bit closer to the Central Pacific, thus, they aren't "traditional", but their SSTs on the west coast of South America aren't below normal like a Modoki, so it's not a Modoki either....

 

Looking at the latest monthly product, it's clear that this looks very similar to the Hybrid Composite, where you still have +SSTs in the NINO 1-2 (just west of South America) and the warmest anomalies (in deeper orange) are out into the central Pacific away from South America's west coast...

Thus, we can conclude that we are in a Hybrid El Nino... & if you look at the latest weekly NINO region SST anomalies (which IMO are better than ERSST because ERSST has a cold bias), but the OISSTv2 (Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature version 2) I linked you to below only goes back to 1990, so we're stuck w/ ERSST for the moment in terms of the Oceanic Nino Index) we are in a weak El Nino for the moment at least w/ anomalies shooting up to +1.0C, but because we need 5 successive tri-monthlies to meet the ONI El Nino definition (& knowing a 1979-80 scenario is possible where we observe 4 successive +.5C or greater tri-monthlies, instead of 5), I would also argue this may be just a warm ENSO Neutral event. So, in conclusion treat the monthly ENSO placement/intensity picture like an x/y coordinate plane, the months (Dec, Jan. Feb)=y axis, El Nino type (Hybrid, Weak, Strong, etc.)=x axis, & look for the warm ENSO neutral-weak Hybrid El Nino composite maps (2nd to last row from the bottom (Hybrid El Nino) & the top 2 rows (Weak El Nino & Warm Neutral), those are the ones that are applicable to our current event for temperatures. For precipitation again use the 2nd row from the bottom, then the 3rd & 4th rows from the top) I hope you found this helpful!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

 

On another note, the subtropical jet stream is starting to turn up the juice (evidenced by the + zonal wind anomalies (in yellow/orange) stretching from West of Hawaii all the way into California)

[franklin NCwx]

I see your 12z and raise you the 18z gefs!

[max100]

Widespread snows likely last 10 days of the month. We caught a break in winter last Christmas to New Years Not likely this year.

 

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi

[pcbjr]

Gotcha and understand all you're saying. No problem there.

 

All I'm trying to do is get to a bottom line on your analysis (it's the trial lawyer in me, so pardon, but I work and understand on distillation).

 

Can you post the one composite you feel best fits in with all the variables you point out? (Or 3 monthly composites, one each for Dec - Feb if you feel it appropriate)?

 

I'd like to look at that in order to be able to better digest the volume of data you've provided.

 

Best!

Sure!! Well, pardon me for that, I will try to explain things in a little bit easier from here. Ok, so I'm sure you know what an El Nino is, where you have a cut-down (slowing) of the easterly trade winds which are blowing warm water from the eastern Pacific & loading it in the West Pacific Warmpool located closer to northeast Australia & Indionesia, and this allows the warm water to slosh back eastward towards South America in the form of equatorial Kelvin Waves and if the NINO 3.4 region according to the CPC maintains average anomalies of .5C or higher for 5 successive tri-monthlies or 3 month periods we have an El Nino. A "traditional" or east-based El Nino like the "Super" El Nino of 1997-98 for example is where you have the warm water tucked right up against South America, displaced as far to the east as possible in the Pacific with the tongue of warm water extending to the east within the so called Equatorial Counter Current that runs directly on the equator in the opposite direction of the trade winds which blow most of the water to the east. In an El Nino this counter-current becomes stronger than normal because the trade winds that are opposing it slacken...

 

Without going into extreme detail & technical terminology however, a Modoki El Nino (Modoki meaning in Japanese similar but different) is also an El Nino, but in this case the waters of the central Pacific are warmer than normal, while the area up against South America is actually cool. Just so this puts away any confusion you may still have, the picture on the left is a "traditional" or East Based El Nino, the one on the right is a Modoki or Central Pacific El Nino..

 

All I'm doing by assigning the "Hybrid" El Nino type is that these El Ninos don't completely fit either the Modoki or the Traditional El Nino definitions where either the warmest water relative to average is up against South America like an east-based or traditional El Nino as w/ the big 1997-98 event, or where the warmest water is in the central pacific and it is cooler than average up against South America like a Modoki. These "Hybrid" El Ninos simply have characteristics of both Modoki & East Based El Ninos, (a blend of these two El Nino types if you will) and are somewhere in the middle between the two types. However, they do not fully meet their definitions, thus I assigned them to their own entirely different class. I don't blame you for being confused because I see this kind of confusion even in scientific literature and with professional mets over what events should be classified as Modoki or Traditional, and I understood why that was the case several months ago. They essentially put themselves into a box by assigning only 2 possible categories for El Nino events (aside from their intensity of course) because these El Ninos really weren't one or other per say and it were these "hybrid" El Ninos that caused much of the bickering & disorder among many who attempted to categorize the events. You can see below in this composite of "Hybrid" El Nino SSTs it essentially meets the Modoki & Traditional El Nino definitions halfway... The warmest waters relative to normal (in the deeper reds, etc.) are not against South America and are a bit closer to the Central Pacific, thus, they aren't "traditional", but their SSTs on the west coast of South America aren't below normal like a Modoki, so it's not a Modoki either....

 

Looking at the latest monthly product, it's clear that this looks very similar to the Hybrid Composite, where you still have +SSTs in the NINO 1-2 (just west of South America) and the warmest anomalies (in deeper orange) are out into the central Pacific away from South America's west coast...

Thus, we can conclude that we are in a Hybrid El Nino... & if you look at the latest weekly NINO region SST anomalies (which IMO are better than ERSST because ERSST has a cold bias), but the OISSTv2 (Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature version 2) I linked you to below only goes back to 1990, so we're stuck w/ ERSST for the moment in terms of the Oceanic Nino Index) we are in a weak El Nino for the moment at least w/ anomalies shooting up to +1.0C, but because we need 5 successive tri-monthlies to meet the ONI El Nino definition (& knowing a 1979-80 scenario is possible where we observe 4 successive +.5C or greater tri-monthlies, instead of 5), I would also argue this may be just a warm ENSO Neutral event. So, in conclusion treat the monthly ENSO placement/intensity picture like an x/y coordinate plane, the months (Dec, Jan. Feb)=y axis, El Nino type (Hybrid, Weak, Strong, etc.)=x axis, & look for the warm ENSO neutral-weak Hybrid El Nino composite maps (2nd to last row from the bottom (Hybrid El Nino) & the top 2 rows (Weak El Nino & Warm Neutral), those are the ones that are applicable to our current event. I hope you found this helpful!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

 

On another note, the subtropical jet stream is starting to turn up the juice (evidenced by the + zonal wind anomalies (in yellow/orange) stretching from West of Hawaii all the way into California)

[Met1985]

Got this from the TN forum. An update about the AO from Dr. Cohen.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

[Webberweather53]

Gotcha and understand all you're saying. No problem there.

 

All I'm trying to do is get to a bottom line on your analysis (it's the trial lawyer in me, so pardon, but I work and understand on distillation).

 

Can you post the one composite you feel best fits in with all the variables you point out? (Or 3 monthly composites, one each for Dec - Feb if you feel it appropriate)?

 

I'd like to look at that in order to be able to better digest the volume of data you've provided.

 

Best!

 

 

Ok, I see.. (there are so many variables to look into for the winter & rarely does one or a few composited analogs describe all that's ongoing) but since we're talking about just El Nino intensity & placement, I'll give you this one...

 

Warm ENSO Neutral-Weak Hybrid El Ninos w/ all years besides 1960-61 double weighted to account for the strong warm PDO because of its dominance in the pattern of late. You're probably getting tired of seeing these years show up again & again... 1960-61, 1976-77, 1979-80, 2003-04.

 

These years did verify quite nicely in November, the only area that I could really find anything to complain about (if @ all) is the northeast Pacific (thanks +PDO), & it was colder over the northern tier (have to go a little colder than the composite there because of the extremely robust snowpack that's still ongoing over the northern hemisphere)

Here's what the rest of winter looked like in those years, after a relatively slow start in December, January turned into a freezer as extreme blocking exploded over the pole (probably due to a major stratospheric warming event) & February was still quite cold/snowy... Again, the general theme as w/ other analog packages I've posted previously is December is the slowest month of the winter...

 

 

These winters had quite a few big ones...

 

A few of these are from the NCSU winter storm database

Jan 21-22 1961

"Snow, sleet, and freezing rain over the greater part of the state was followed by the coldest weather of the winter. There were many auto accidents due to icy streets and highways and many fires caused by overtaxed heating systems. One person died from exposure, one from an auto accident, and six from fires. Six additional deaths from carbon monoxide poisoning occurred, partly attributable to the weather. Schools closed one or more days over most of the state."

 

Jan 26-27 1961

"Practically the entire state was covered with ice during the early morning hours. One person was killed in an auto accident and there were numerous injuries. Power lines were broken, with outages of several hours over large areas. Schools were closed over more than half of the state."

 

Feb 3-4 1961

"Snow in the Mountains, sleet over the Piedmont and western Coastal Plain with mostly freezing rain over the eastern sections. Hazardous driving conditions caused traffic tie-ups in many places but only minor accidents were reported. Most schools were closed."

 

Feb 7-8 1961

"Sleet and freezing rain occurred mainly over the northern Piedmont with snow in the Mountains. Glazed roads caused hazardous driving conditions. Two men were killed in separate automobile accidents due to icy roads. Power and telephone service was disrupted in scattered areas due to ice-laden tree limbs falling on wires with Guilford County being the hardest hit. Some schools closed."

 

 

 

 

 

[pcbjr]

So, no 1 composite that best describes your thoughts?

 

Just trying to get to this:

 

 

                                                     Your #1, best guess composite

                                                               given your analysis

 

Ok, I see.. (there are so many variables to look into for the winter & rarely does one or a few composited analogs describe all that's ongoing) but since we're talking about just El Nino intensity & placement, I'll give you this one...

 

Warm ENSO Neutral-Weak Hybrid El Ninos w/ all years besides 1960-61 double weighted to account for the strong warm PDO because of its dominance in the pattern of late. You're probably getting tired of seeing these years show up again & again... 1960-61, 1976-77, 1979-80, 2003-04.

 

These years did verify quite nicely in November, the only area that I could really find anything to complain about (if @ all) is the northeast Pacific (thanks +PDO), & it was colder over the northern tier (have to go a little colder than the composite there because of the extremely robust snowpack that's still ongoing over the northern hemisphere)

Here's what the rest of winter looked like in those years, after a relatively slow start in December, January turned into a freezer as extreme blocking exploded over the pole (probably due to a major stratospheric warming event) & February was still quite cold/snowy... Again, the general theme as w/ other analog packages I've posted previously is December is the slowest month of the winter...

 

 

These winters had quite a few big ones...

 

A few of these are from the NCSU winter storm database

Jan 21-22 1961

"Snow, sleet, and freezing rain over the greater part of the state was followed by the coldest weather of the winter. There were many auto accidents due to icy streets and highways and many fires caused by overtaxed heating systems. One person died from exposure, one from an auto accident, and six from fires. Six additional deaths from carbon monoxide poisoning occurred, partly attributable to the weather. Schools closed one or more days over most of the state."

 

Jan 26-27 1961

"Practically the entire state was covered with ice during the early morning hours. One person was killed in an auto accident and there were numerous injuries. Power lines were broken, with outages of several hours over large areas. Schools were closed over more than half of the state."

 

Feb 3-4 1961

"Snow in the Mountains, sleet over the Piedmont and western Coastal Plain with mostly freezing rain over the eastern sections. Hazardous driving conditions caused traffic tie-ups in many places but only minor accidents were reported. Most schools were closed."

 

Feb 7-8 1961

"Sleet and freezing rain occurred mainly over the northern Piedmont with snow in the Mountains. Glazed roads caused hazardous driving conditions. Two men were killed in separate automobile accidents due to icy roads. Power and telephone service was disrupted in scattered areas due to ice-laden tree limbs falling on wires with Guilford County being the hardest hit. Some schools closed."

 

 

 

 

 

[calculus1]

So, no 1 composite that best describes your thoughts?

 

 

Pcbjr, he told you in his last post.  I have cut it out and pasted it for you right here.  December, January, and February.  I don't think he can be any clearer, and I'm guessing webberweather's got to be tired out from all the typing he's done in the past two pages.  Let's give him the rest of the night off, shall we? 

 

[Wow]

So, no 1 composite that best describes your thoughts?

 

Just trying to get to this:

 

                                                     Your #1, best guess composite

                                                               given your analysis

 

I wish it were that simple sometimes. Analoging has so many variables that providing a simple answer is the least informative answer.  Webber's given out a ton of useful information here to learn from.  

[LithiaWx]

I see your 12z and raise you the 18z gefs!

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

Yep, the 12z GEFS was crap and this is even worse.

[Webberweather53]

So, no 1 composite that best describes your thoughts?

 

Just trying to get to this:

 

th.jpg

 

                                                     Your #1, best guess composite

                                                               given your analysis

 

Pcbjr, he told you in his last post.  I have cut it out and pasted it for you right here.  December, January, and February.  I don't think he can be any clearer, and I'm guessing webberweather's got to be tired out from all the typing he's done in the past two pages.  Let's give him the rest of the night off, shall we? 

 

 

I wish it were that simple sometimes. Analoging has so many variables that providing a simple answer is the least informative answer.  Webber's given out a ton of useful information here to learn from.  

 

Thanks for the feedback, & yes it is extremely difficult if not impossible & quite frankly not sensible to throw yourself into just one set of analogs & it's one of the primary reasons why I withheld from releasing a winter forecast because such a post would likely absolutely dwarf anything I've made here or anywhere else for that matter (& I have made some massive posts that took about 2 weeks to make)... 

 

 

Yep, the 12z GEFS was crap and this is even worse.

image.jpg

image.jpg

image.jpg

 

Contrarily, I absolutely love the way the pattern is going (aside from how close it resembles the analogs). I personally couldn't draw up a better looking pattern preceding a sudden stratospheric warming event than that. IF this continues to show up a week-10 days from now, it would definitely be time to break out the jaws music...

 

[deltadog03]

#pattern change...

[LithiaWx]

Thanks for the feedback, & yes it is extremely difficult if not impossible & quite frankly not sensible to throw yourself into just one set of analogs & it's one of the primary reasons why I withheld from releasing a winter forecast because such a post would likely absolutely dwarf anything I've made here or anywhere else for that matter (& I have made some massive posts that took about 2 weeks to make)...

Contrarily, I absolutely love the way the pattern is going (aside from how close it resembles the analogs). I personally couldn't draw up a better looking pattern preceding a sudden stratospheric warming event than that. IF this continues to show up a week-10 days from now, it would definitely be time to break out the jaws music...

That's a big IF banking on a SSW event which isn't a lock. I hear you looking for the silver lining but I can't see one with the way that map looks. The cold is on the wrong side of the globe like it was a few winters back. It's all wrong for the U.S., it's fine and dandy to try and predict what would come next after a map like that but it is an exercise in futility IMO.

I wish folks would just be patient and stop trying to pull a rabbit out of a hat. The pattern change will come in due time. Let's hope when it does arrive it changes to one that is beneficial to the SE. There have been signs recently of a possible switch to a better pattern late month but the GEFS today wasn't the ticket. Look to the Euro weeklies for that clue. JMO

[Snowless in Carrollton]

That's a big IF banking on a SSW event which isn't a lock. I hear you looking for the silver lining but I can't see one with the way that map looks. The cold is on the wrong side of the globe like it was a few winters back. It's all wrong for the U.S., it's fine and dandy to try and predict what would come next after a map like that but it is an exercise in futility IMO.

I wish folks would just be patient and stop trying to pull a rabbit out of a hat. The pattern change will come in due time. Let's hope when it does arrive it changes to one that is beneficial to the SE. There have been signs recently of a possible switch to a better pattern late month but the GEFS today wasn't the ticket. Look to the Euro weeklies for that clue. JMO

and lets hope that the pattern doesn't wait until March to change.

[Bob Chill]

I thought the gefs looked quite a bit like the weeklies and the 12z EPS. 850s at long leads gets really muddy because of the spread. Central Canada roasts in the medium lead. That's fairly certain. But a transition to cutting the Pac jet off and lowering heights in the east (se in particular) would verify much cooler with sensible wx compared to the mean.

[Webberweather53]

That's a big IF banking on a SSW event which isn't a lock. I hear you looking for the silver lining but I can't see one with the way that map looks. The cold is on the wrong side of the globe like it was a few winters back. It's all wrong for the U.S., it's fine and dandy to try and predict what would come next after a map like that but it is an exercise in futility IMO.

I wish folks would just be patient and stop trying to pull a rabbit out of a hat. The pattern change will come in due time. Let's hope when it does arrive it changes to one that is beneficial to the SE. There have been signs recently of a possible switch to a better pattern late month but the GEFS today wasn't the ticket. Look to the Euro weeklies for that clue. JMO

 

 

I'm certainly not pulling a rabbit out of the hat here & made a very long & drawn out post on my reasoning to this a few days back in here & you should probably look over it..The cold is not on the wrong side of the globe, it's exactly where it should be @ this stage in the winter & this is to be expected in high northern hemisphere snowpack years... It gets cold in the US in Nov, then in Dec the arctic hammer hits & builds up in Eurasia first, then North America gets its turn in January...

 

Oct N hem high snow cover regressed November temps..

 

This year...

 

Same as the top, now w/ December & January...