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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

LithiaWx

By LithiaWx,
in Southeastern States

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

12z euro ensemble mean d15 looks pretty similar to Monday's weeklies @ d17-18. GOA trough starting to retro. Nice kink in the isobars in western canada starting to show. It's something worth keeping a close eye on and a subtle yet noticeable improvement from previous runs.

 

The first way out of the upcoming pac flood pattern is to cut off that sw  mid/upper level flow into canada from the GOA and get a more nw upper level flow coming down in central canada. 

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

12z euro ensemble mean d15 looks pretty similar to Monday's weeklies @ d17-18. GOA trough starting to retro. Nice kink in the isobars in western canada starting to show. It's something worth keeping a close eye on and a subtle yet noticeable improvement from previous runs.

 

The first way out of the upcoming pac flood pattern is to cut off that sw  mid/upper level flow into canada from the GOA and get a more nw upper level flow coming down in central canada. 

 

Just ticking away, hopefully the weeklies improve tomorrow night.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Note where the trough axis is placed and the strong blocking developed over Greenland. Also appears to support an active southern jet with the higher heights just off central California and lower heights south of the Aleutians. Looks pretty good to my "untrained" eye

 

I wouldn't mind seeing that low anomaly south of the Aleutians move west a little bit.

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Webberweather53

Webberweather53

Posted
Posted

Yeah great post Webber! I do like that the subtropical jet is firing up and showing some life.

 

Thanks, I'm not sure how long this will last as the MJO signal may become muddled as it gets into the central Pacific either by virtue of OLR losing track of it (hence the VPM MJO's focus on the upper level circulation which retains its structure even beyond the dateline where (apart from El Nino events) the SSTs are usually not nearly sufficient to sustain latent heat processes, thus it is often my index of choice when it comes to W hem MJO propagation) or perhaps with enhancement by the low frequency ENSO state, the MJO is finally able to slow down & separate itself from the CCKW it has been trailing throughout it's duration in the eastern hemisphere. We'll see how this transpires, but that's just my 2 cents...

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Hmm... that looks familiar

N-Pac-N-Atlantic-SST-Analogs-Nov-2014-Wi

Bastardi posted those images on Weatherbell today. But why do you say it looks familiar? Confirming your post or something more in depth? I guess confirming that map to the right yeah? Is weatheradvance.com your site? Sorry for all of the ? marks.

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted

 Translation, please ...

 

I believe NCEP's 500 mb DJF forecast is identical to dozen of El Nino analogs combined pattern-wise (especially over North America, east of South America, over western Europe, etc), which is a good sign if you like active winter in SE USA. At least that's what I think I'm seeing...

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted

Thanks, I'm not sure how long this will last as the MJO signal may become muddled as it gets into the central Pacific either by virtue of OLR losing track of it (hence the VPM MJO's focus on the upper level circulation which retains its structure even beyond the dateline where (apart from El Nino events) the SSTs are usually not nearly sufficient to sustain latent heat processes, thus it is often my index of choice when it comes to W hem MJO propagation) or perhaps with enhancement by the low frequency ENSO state, the MJO is finally able to slow down & separate itself from the CCKW it has been trailing throughout it's duration in the eastern hemisphere. We'll see how this transpires, but that's just my 2 cents...

Thanks for the follow up. Hopefully we can keep the subtropical jet active through the winter and get some good blocking from the NAO.

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Webberweather53

Webberweather53

Posted
Posted

Bastardi posted those images on Weatherbell at 3:28pm today. But why do you say it looks familiar? Confirming your post or something more in depth?

 

 Translation, please ...

 

All I'm saying is I find it interesting a graphic which I made 2.5-3 weeks ago (just after Nov 11th when NOAA ESRL updated) matches up very nicely what the model guidance is showing & as HM mentioned on MA forums, some of these SST analogs have La Ninas in them... Also, you have to give credence to the warm PDO which has completely taken over the pattern...

 

& November was a huge wake-up call...

IMO, taking out the more "obvious" La Ninas in the record, the 500mb w/ the strong +PDO years within one 1 standard deviation of this past Sept-Oct since 1900 yields one of the closest patterns to this past November...Strong-PDO-Sep-Octs-500mbUS-temps-Nov.jp

 

I can't stress enough just how classic this pattern over the coming 2 weeks will be to these years & various other ENSO/MEI related analog guidance. Simply beautiful...

ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_9.png

ENSO-El-Nino-Warm-Neutral-ENSO-Intensity

 

Multidecadal +PDO El Nino Dec US temps...

 

Dec-US-temps-PDO-El-Ninos-since-1900.png

 

Going forward, these strong +PDO years look colder overall in the US in January (will be interesting to see where the core of the cold goes, analogs have it sitting just to our west over the same areas that will torch next week), & February continues to be the consistently cold & one of if not, the coldest (& possibly the snowiest) month of the winter here in the southeastern US & on the eastern seaboard in various analog packages...

FotorCreated-1024x581.jpg

My earlier post about El Nino NESIS snowstorms only lends further credence to this...

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Webberweather53

Webberweather53

Posted
Posted

For everyone wondering where our cold weather went, here is where it went. 

 

Also 12z 18z GFS Ens continue to keep the polar vortex in Siberia with zonal flow in the SE US transitioning to a split flow pattern near the end of the run. 

gfs-ens_T2ma5d_nhem_3.png

 

 

Makes sense. In most of the winters w/ strong October northern hemisphere/Eurasia snow cover, Eurasia often gets the arctic hammer first...

152.7.52.63.336.17.36.12.gif

 

Don't worry, however, North America will likely have its turn soon enough

 

152.7.52.63.336.17.39.59.gif

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Webberweather53

Webberweather53

Posted
Posted

An update on the current progress of the northern hemisphere snowpack & here some of the statistics on the snow thus far.

We've now observed 2 out of the last 3 months w/ record snow coverage in North America. Wow.

 

North-America-Snow-Cover-Anomalies-Septe

North-American-Snow-Cover-Anomalies-Nov-

 

 

This year's Combined Sep+Oct+Nov North America snowpack is a record. Here are the top 20 years...

Year           Total Snow (Million Sq. Km) 

2014 22.58 

1996 21.62 

2002 21.14 

1986 21.06

1972 21.03 

2013 20.60

2000 20.54

1991 20.40 

2003 20.25

1992 20.18

1985 20.13

1973 19.72

1993 19.66

2012 19.65

1995 19.61

2004 19.59

1978 19.55

1997 19.54

2010 19.42

1970 19.36

 

The combined Sep+Oct+Nov Eurasian snowpack is 3rd greatest on record, only behind 1976 & 1972. We're definitely in very good company & that was also evident by the October SAI & SCE.

 

Year            Total Snow (Million Sq Km.)

1976 40.44

1972 38.05

2014 37.66

2002 37.23

1970 36.46

1998 36.32

1993 36.16

1968 35.51

2013 35.21

1973 34.95

2012 34.95

2009 34.87

1977 34.20

2006 34.03

2011 33.94

1985 33.37

1999 33.34

2000 33.08

1996 33.00

2004 32.95

 

 

Finally, the combined Sep+Oct+Nov Eurasian, North America (w/o Greenland), & Northern hemisphere snowfall (combined) is currently also a record, beating out 1976. Amazing...

 

Here are the top 20 years

 

Year            Total Snow (Million Sq. Km)

2014 126.93

1976 124.94

1972 124.23

2002 123.13

2013 118.07

1993 118.02

1970 117.96

1973 115.63

1996 115.60

2012 115.59

2009 113.78

2000 113.68

1985 113.40

2011 112.53

1998 112.18

1968 112.07

2006 111.59

2004 111.53

2003 111.41 

1997 111.34

 

 

In short, the snow cover not just in Eurasia as was observed in October, but across the Northern Hemisphere is unusually high this fall, & is at or near record territory in nearly all categories. Thus, it will be very interesting to see the subsequent response this winter...

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deltadog03

deltadog03

Posted
Posted

Has to be lost, the GGEM has a 970 something low off cape cod

I agree Snowgoose!  Just looks AWFUL....I hate to harp on it, hell I sound like JB, LMAO...but the GFS is more than likely going to super struggle this winter.  too much energy flying around for an el nino ish winter.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Well last nights / this mornings GFS is still not throwing us any bones. As state (many times) before there is no torch just a lot of average to slight above average temps (50s for highs 30s for lows):  

 

6z Day 10:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_240_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=240&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141204+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=12&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=06&fhour=228&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

 

Agreed:

 

post-987-0-56258800-1417701129_thumb.png

 

post-987-0-00547700-1417701140_thumb.png

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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

Posted
Posted

Yeah there is literally nothing good about last night runs of GFS/GEFS or EURO/ENS (except analogs!!) The only semi positive (but sad) thing I could find was the 21-25 day CFS with a cool look, and no raging ridging over the US.  Hopefully that's the start of blocking up near greenland/canada.  Only 2.5 weeks to go! Please be on to something, please be on to something.....

 

pC0YIGFl.png

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Yeah there is literally nothing good about last night runs of GFS/GEFS or EURO/ENS (except analogs!!) The only semi positive (but sad) thing I could find was the 21-25 day CFS with a cool look, and no raging ridging over the US.  Hopefully that's the start of blocking up near greenland/canada.  Only 2.5 weeks to go! Please be on to something, please be on to something.....

 

pC0YIGFl.png

Usually you would laugh at LR output but It makes since because of the analogs.

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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

Posted
Posted

I wouldn't get too obsessed with looking at LR modeling right now. Come Dec. 15th or so I think we'll start seeing the more widespread changes to our north in the LR modeling. Pattern is here to stay for awhile. 

 

Yeah I agree.  I'm just grasping at anything to try a find a break in this crudy pattern.  It's amazing how consistent all the models are with the massive ridge dead in the heart of the US, and low heights at the pole (+AO pattern). 

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