Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

[Cold Rain]

you don't call an extended period of 10+ above normal a torch ? 70s today, upper 60s the rest of the week. The first week of December will average close to 10 degrees above normal. That's a torch to me.

 

The normals for RDU are in around 57/37 right now.  So yeah, we're above today.  The next few days look to generally be at or below for the highs and a bit above for the lows.  Today is a torch here, no doubt.  But it doesn't look like an extended torch up here by any means.

[Webberweather53]

Hay Webber, so your saying the storm is a product of the pattern. Will we have to depend on storms (like this) to (constantly) flip the pattern in our favor.  

 

Wow...way to make a big splash, Webber!  You may have just won the grand prize for best first-time posts.  It's great to have another excellent member with some high weather IQ in the SE forum.  I have a short list of forum members whose posts I pay special attention to.  Your name will definitely be added to the list.  Welcome aboard!

 

Webber, you are a great addition to the board and to the SE forum! Thanks for the informative posts!

 

Thanks... Even if Hagupit doesn't recurve, the pattern will still actually be tilted slightly in favor of the SE US (although arctic air will be significantly lacking), with this kind of warm PDO/split flow pattern that I find to be very characteristic in +PDO El Ninos since 1900...

 

 

 

I also found this +multidecadal PDO El Nino composite to be one of the closest matches to this past Nov

 

 

If the pattern decides to torch, the largest +anoms will likely be confined mainly to the northern tier of the US (especially further north & west you get) w/ an active southern branch keeping us seasonable cool & quite wet.

 

It's the canonical +PDO El Nino Dec look...

 

 

 

 

Until we get the MJO well into the Pacific & Western Hemisphere (aside from the possibility Hagupit somehow recurves) the pattern looks boring, at least relatively so compared to what's to come later down the road in Jan & Feb...

Meshing everything together, & adding the SST analog analysis I performed a few weeks ago...

 

The monthly 500mb pattern among the regressed 500mb for high Oct N hem snow cover, +PDO El Ninos, & the North Pacific & Atlantic Nov SST analogs (+ENSO only) generally agree on the overall progression of the winter, with a relatively dull December, significant flip in January (major SSWE?) with February once again being the month that looks the most appealing for snow lovers...

Same image now w/ temps...

 

 

I also saw this a little while ago posted by Andrew- Andrej who is an expert on stratospheric modeling, & this shows stratospheric temperatures 10 days lag following MJO phase 7 in December... if true would jive w/ various other analog packages I sifted through that hint @ a mid winter SSWE & a heightened atmospheric response to +AAM surge that tends to occur as the mean center of action w/ the upward phase MJO pushes beyond the western Pacific.

 

The atmosphere is already quite pre-conditioned for a major warming event, the recent surge in wave activity flux was able to cause great disruption on the polar vortex in the low-mid levels & drive the polar 10mb temperatures into record territory for several days...

[Snowless in Carrollton]

The normals for RDU are in around 57/37 right now. So yeah, we're above today. The next few days look to generally be at or below for the highs and a bit above for the lows. Today is a torch here, no doubt. But it doesn't look like an extended torch up here by any means.

that's kind of strange that my normals are around the same as RDU even though I'm south of I-20. And yes, I know that it doesn't look like an extended torch up there. You NC folks have CAD in your favor. Here in GA and AL, we don't have that luxury usually. Must be nice to be east of the apps ( instead of south)

[packbacker]

who are you?

 

LOL, hey I have always been bullish on this winter, just not wire to wire, I expect a couple of minor events for our area in Jan and a couple of moderate ones in Feb.  RDU will exceed 10" this winter.  

 

I expect you guys to do great too with more events.

 

A person who is about to be sorely disappointed.  Mwhahaha!

 

That big low off the NW coast is bothering me.

 

It will shift west by end of the month and then...

[packbacker]

Thanks... Even if Hagupit doesn't recurve, the pattern will still actually be tilted slightly in favor of the SE US (although arctic air will be significantly lacking), with this kind of warm PDO/split flow pattern that I find to be very characteristic in +PDO El Ninos since 1900...

 

 

 

 

 

I also found this +multidecadal PDO El Nino composite to be one of the closest matches to this past Nov

 

 

 

If the pattern decides to torch, the largest +anoms will likely be confined mainly to the northern tier of the US (especially further north & west you get) w/ an active southern branch keeping us seasonable cool & quite wet.

 

 

It's the canonical +PDO El Nino Dec look...

 

 

 

 

 

Until we get the MJO well into the Pacific & Western Hemisphere (aside from the possibility Hagupit somehow recurves) the pattern looks boring, at least relatively so compared to what's to come later down the road in Jan & Feb...

Meshing everything together, & adding the SST analog analysis I performed a few weeks ago...

 

 

The monthly 500mb pattern among the regressed 500mb for high Oct N hem snow cover, +PDO El Ninos, & the North Pacific & Atlantic Nov SST analogs (+ENSO only) generally agree on the overall progression of the winter, with a relatively dull December, significant flip in January (major SSWE?) with February once again being the month that looks the most appealing for snow lovers...

Same image now w/ temps...

 

 

 

I also saw this a little while ago posted by Andrew- Andrej who is an expert on stratospheric modeling, & this shows stratospheric temperatures 10 days lag following MJO phase 7 in December... if true would jive w/ various other analog packages I sifted through that hint @ a mid winter SSWE & a heightened atmospheric response to +AAM surge that tends to occur as the mean center of action w/ the upward phase MJO pushes beyond the western Pacific.

 

 

The atmosphere is already quite pre-conditioned for a major warming event, the recent surge in wave activity flux was able to cause great disruption on the polar vortex in the low-mid levels & drive the polar 10mb temperatures into record territory for several days...

 

 

The 11-15 stratosphere plots on the GFS isn't good but on the new GFS (para) you start see some warming and elongation of the PV at 10mb. I wish I had the Euro 11-15 stratosphere model output...

[franklin NCwx]

LOL, hey I have always been bullish on this winter, just not wire to wire, I expect a couple of minor events for our area in Jan and a couple of moderate ones in Feb. RDU will exceed 10" this winter.

I expect you guys to do great too with more events.

It will shift west by end of the month and then...

just messing with you. Most dec nino's are not great, It looks like the gfs try to get us to a better pattern around day 12. I like how it pushes the higher heights up into candy and Hudson bay, if we can retro the deep trough in the goa to the Aleutians. We will be in business.

[packbacker]

just messing with you. Most dec nino's are not great, It looks like the gfs try to get us to a better pattern around day 12. I like how it pushes the higher heights up into candy and Hudson bay, if we can retro the deep trough in the goa to the Aleutians. We will be in business.

 

Agreed!

[franklin NCwx]

Agreed!

auto correct destroyed my post. Pattern looks mostly normal temps to slightly above.

[SN_Lover]

The 11-15 stratosphere plots on the GFS isn't good but on the new GFS (para) you start see some warming and elongation of the PV at 10mb. I wish I had the Euro 11-15 stratosphere model output...

We just had a warming event take place, so I would give it two weeks before the below average temperatures arrives. Until then, the flow looks to be really zonal. 

 

 

 

 

Edit: Might be a bit longer than 2 weeks :/

[packbacker]

My bad on the weeklies post, that was the control run, one sec!

Edit: They do look better, blocking sets up end of week 3 into 4. (-AO/-NAO)

Edit: Ridging in the west, east coast trough. I bet 2m's neutral but its a good look this far out.

[GaWx]

My bad on the weeklies post, that was the control run, one sec!

Edit: They do look better, blocking sets up end of week 3 into 4. (-AO/-NAO)

Edit: Ridging in the west, east coast trough. I bet 2m's neutral but its a good look this far out.

 

Weeklies 2m's:

 

Week 1: solidly above normal

Week 2: near normal

Week 3: slightly above normal

Week 4: near normal..ding ding, Pack was right. He wins a trip to the north pole to check on the -AO.

 About week 4, the south is the coldest in the country with respect to normal...very Ninolike. I suspect this could easily end up being cold.

 Anyway, everything looks like it is going according to the pattern of the Cohen analogs.

[franklin NCwx]

My bad on the weeklies post, that was the control run, one sec!

Edit: They do look better, blocking sets up end of week 3 into 4. (-AO/-NAO)

Edit: Ridging in the west, east coast trough. I bet 2m's neutral but its a good look this far out.

winter is back!

[packbacker]

winter is back!

Well back after the 18th or so, just happy to get rid of the lower heights over the pole/Greenland.

[Bob Chill]

Well back after the 18th or so, just happy to get rid of the lower heights over the pole/Greenland.

 

I thought the weeklies looks decent as well. It shows the way out of the meh pattern we're in now. One thing of note, the weeklies initialize off of the 0z ensemble run. Basically, they are just an extension beyond d15. Inside of 360 the panels are identical to the ec ens run.

 

 If you compare h5 height anomalies @ hr 360 of the 0z to hr 348 12z ec ens run, it's been trending towards the aleutian low establishing further westward and also higher heights pressing poleward from northern russia (this trend has been going on for several days). The difference between the 2 runs is more than subtle. IMO- we may shake the blues faster than what is being advertised. I would have to guess that if the weeklies initialized with the 12z run it would look even better in weeks 3-4. Mostly a wag but we'll see. 

[packbacker]

I thought the weeklies looks decent as well. It shows the way out of the meh pattern we're in now. One thing of note, the weeklies initialize off of the 0z ensemble run. Basically, they are just an extension beyond d15. Inside of 360 the panels are identical to the ec ens run.

 

 If you compare h5 height anomalies @ hr 360 of the 0z to hr 348 12z ec ens run, it's been trending towards the aleutian low establishing further westward and also higher heights pressing poleward from northern russia (this trend has been going on for several days). The difference between the 2 runs is more than subtle. IMO- we may shake the blues faster than what is being advertised. I would have to guess that if the weeklies initialized with the 12z run it would look even better in weeks 3-4. Mostly a wag but we'll see.

Thanks Bob! I didn't know they initialized off the 0z run, but that does make sense. it was nice to see the low move west away from Alaska. Hope to see the stratosphere start warming, the para run had some day 12+ and the 18z GFS has it too.

[packbacker]

Weeklies 2m's:

 

Week 1: solidly above normal

Week 2: near normal

Week 3: slightly above normal

Week 4: near normal..ding ding, Pack was right. He wins a trip to the north pole to check on the -AO.

 About week 4, the south is the coldest in the country with respect to normal...very Ninolike. I suspect this could easily end up being cold.

 Anyway, everything looks like it is going according to the pattern of the Cohen analogs.

The animation you showed looks close to what the weeklies are showing. Where is that again?

[pcbjr]

I would have to guess that if the weeklies initialized with the 12z run it would look even better in weeks 3-4. Mostly a wag but we'll see.

 

Are we into the 3 - 4 weeks out mode again this year?

[packbacker]

I would have to guess that if the weeklies initialized with the 12z run it would look even better in weeks 3-4. Mostly a wag but we'll see.

 

Are we into the 3 - 4 weeks out mode again this year?

Yes, but this is the last time this winter we have to say that! :-)

[franklin NCwx]

Thanks Bob! I didn't know they initialized off the 0z run, but that does make sense. it was nice to see the low move west away from Alaska. Hope to see the stratosphere start warming, the para run had some day 12+ and the 18z GFS has it too.

yeah if we can get that low to retrograde that would be great.

[pcbjr]

Yes, but this is the last time this winter we have to say that! :-)

 

Promise?

[Bob Chill]

I would have to guess that if the weeklies initialized with the 12z run it would look even better in weeks 3-4. Mostly a wag but we'll see.

 

Are we into the 3 - 4 weeks out mode again this year?

 

lol- didn't it become obvious when chatter around the board started talking about mjo, strat temps, and recurving typhoons? All code words for we're screwed for 10+ days. lol

 

Sneaky stuff could happen in the next 10-15 days but there is no guidance pointing towards a good storm pattern for either of our areas for now. 

[WxBlue]

I see Webberweather53 have finally joined this forum. Hard to believe he's a freshman in college with all of his knowledge I've seen on Twitter!

[pcbjr]

lol- didn't it become obvious when chatter around the board started talking about mjo, strat temps, and recurving typhoons? All code words for we're screwed for 10+ days. lol

 

Sneaky stuff could happen in the next 10-15 days but there is no guidance pointing towards a good storm pattern for either of our areas for now. 

Yes it did.

 

I don't want to start or get started a "discussion" that leads nowhere, nor do I want to get sidetracked here or invite assassination out of pattern boredom. But, I've on a few occasions the past few weeks posted, granted without any "scientific" basis, but only with a basis from my own observations and those with 2 generations more than I have, them just being around a long time with not much more to do than recollect -- cold November in the SE, warm December and even if Jan is then cold, early spring.

 

Gawd I'd love my recollections and those of the old folks that live on the farms to be wrong ...

 

Gawd I'd love to be able to honestly latch on to something scientific.

 

I'm just going way out on a limb and saying it makes no historical sense to expect the winter that was touted 6 weeks ago.

 

Pray I'm 100% wrong .....

[GaWx]

The animation you showed looks close to what the weeklies are showing. Where is that again?

 

 https://www.aer.com/sites/default/files/SurfT_HighmLow_SnowCover_Detrend_Blog_small.gif

[GaWx]

KATL monthly temperature anomalies for 12 cold to cool winters that are ENSO analogs for winter of 2014-5:

Blue month has coldest anomaly of the winter. * = a top analog due to warm October

# = cool to cold November

Winter….D……….J……....F

#1880-1…-2.5…… -3.6…….+1.0

*1884-5….0.0……-3.3…….-6.4

#1885-6….-1.8…....-7.1……-3.6

1904-5….-0.8……-6.7……-9.5

*#1911-2….+2.6..….-5.7.…..-5.6

1935-6….-8.4…….-4.3…..-4.0

*#1939-0…+1.0…..-13.7….-3.5

*1963-4…..-9.1…...-2.5…..-5.3

#1968-9….-4.4.…..-3.1.….-2.9

#1969-0...-2.9…..-7.4.…..-1.7

#1976-7….-4.8…..-14.0…..-3.6

1977-8….-2.5…..-9.6.…..-6.3

AVG……-3.0…..-6.8…..-4.3

Findings:

1. Note that 3 of the 4 top analogs, which all had a warm October, had a noncold Dec/ the three warmest Decembers!

2. Note that the two warmest Decembers, 1911 and 1939, both followed a cold November.

3. For the 12, January averaged the coldest anomaly by a good margin.

4. All Jan.'s were at least 2.5 degrees colder than normal.

5. 7 of the 12 winters had January with the coldest anomaly.

[franklin NCwx]

So much for the Aleutian ridge idea the models had.

[mackerel_sky]

Holy crap at the turnaround at 39-40!

Amazing

[SnowGoose69]

Holy crap at the turnaround at 39-40!

Amazing

The turnaround from December 84 to January 85 may have been even bigger than that, I don't even know the numbers but it's gotta be close.

[No snow for you]

I like the looks of this. 

[Bob Chill]

I'm just going way out on a limb and saying it makes no historical sense to expect the winter that was touted 6 weeks ago.

Pray I'm 100% wrong .....

Door to door winters rarely happen. 02-03 was the last one that qualifies in my area. Everything has to break absolutely perfect. I personally wouldn't make that call until after Dec and probably part of Jan is already booked and even then there's plenty of risk.

However, it's been discussed by most pros that Dec was the biggest wildcard for establishing a persistent cold winter pattern. My area finished Nov around -3-4. The rubber band always snaps back at some point. Just like a typical Jan thaw. The 800lb gorilla question right now is whether a cold winter pattern establishes in Dec or not. Many signs point favorably towards the second half getting there. Until then we all nervously await the proverbial 10+ day pattern change....ugh