Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

[TeleConnectSnow]

He is a well respected met in the Philadelphia area

I am from the philly area and let me say one thing: His forecasts bust more than teenager going through puberty.

[packbacker]

I am from the philly area and let me say one thing: His forecasts bust more than teenager going through puberty.

Looking at Philly stats, amazing streak you guys are on, 350%, 200%, 20%, 40%, 300% and now he is calling for 200%. You guys have never had 4 out of 6 years over 200%, in 130 years. Philly has had 13 40"+ seasons in 130 years. So once a decade on average, with 3 coming in the past 5 seasons.

[TeleConnectSnow]

Looking at Philly stats, amazing streak you guys are on, 350%, 200%, 20%, 40%, 300% and now he is calling for 200%. You guys have never had 4 out of 6 years over 200%, in 130 years.

I'm not complaining, and I hope we spread the love to you guys down here. This winter seems to be setting up great, so we will see how it goes.

[packbacker]

I'm not complaining, and I hope we spread the love to you guys down here. This winter seems to be setting up great, so we will see how it goes.

Rooting for you, would be cool to continue the streak you guys are on.

[griteater]

Minus 26º in Casper WY.  Shattered all kinds of records.

 

It is interesting just seeing that kind of cold air mass in November.  A harbinger??

[FallsLake]

Well the extended on the GFS (0z & 6z) looks like crap. Not much cold air makes into the US.

 

Other indicators:

PNA looks to stay slightly positive **(not bad) 

AO looks to average somewhere in the negative range, but there are some runs that do go positive **(basically not bad)

NAO looks to average somewhere in the negative range, but there are some runs that do go positive **(basically not good) 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

[EmersonGA]

I know this is an annual FFC rant but even Ray Charles could see that the growing season is obviously over in my neck of the woods.  Why does FFC insist on putting out frost and freeze warnings when everything has been dead as a doornail for quite awhile.  Hell, why not issue them all winter since apparently our agricultural folks, at least in FFC's eyes, can't tell when the growing season is over.  

[mackerel_sky]

If the GFS hadn't been showing ridiculous cold for next week, there would be alot more talk about the current cold snap. Basically next 3 days have 40/20s with sun , in November !

Basically one day next week of " normal" temps, so this is impressive

[Local Yokel Wx]

Matthew East usually does a winter forecast. Not sure if he's put one out this year, though.

 

 

I don't recall seeing one from him on facebook.

 

He is not doing one this year as he said he was too busy. 

[max100]

He is not doing one this year as he said he was too busy.

I like him as well. Odd, weather is his job.

[Solak]

What is a "TMB"? Not sure I've seen that acronym before.

 

From this morning's RAH disco...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER YET WITH THIS EVOLUTION...SUCH THAT THE PRECEDING HIGH AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR RIDGE SHOULD HAVE LESS INFLUENCE AS THE RAIN DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL NC LATE SUN OR MORE LIKELY SUN NIGHT (IE. DELAYED/WEAKER IN-SITU CAD FOR LATE SUN-MON). WHATEVER IN-SITU WEDGE THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY BE MORE PRONE TO BEING DISLODGED BY THE RETREATING COASTAL FRONT...SUCH THAT TEMPERATURES MON COULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...RANGING TO AROUND 50 DEGREES OVER THE CLIMO-FAVORED NW PIEDMONT/DAMMING REGION...AND A STRONG COASTAL FRONT/"TMB" IN BETWEEN. INSTEAD OF MINIMAL P-TYPE CONCERNS AT ONSET NOTED A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...THE CONCERN WITH THIS MORE SLOWLY EVOLVING SYSTEM AND RETREAT OF THE COASTAL FRONT INTO THE RAH CWFA WOULD FAVOR A MORE OR A THREAT OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS...THOUGH THE SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES (AS OPPOSED TO ONE STRONGER ONE) WOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAGNITUDES. THE SERIES OF WAVES...OWING TO DISJOINTED/STRUNG OUT PARENT FORCING ALOFT...WOULD ALSO RESULT IN A LONGER DURATION OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WHICH LIKELY WILL NOT END UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. 

[griteater]

Solak - I'm pretty sure that is Thermal Moisture Boundary

[Cold Rain]

Solak - I'm pretty sure that is Thermal Moisture Boundary

 

[Brick Tamland]

Sounds like NC could get the usual round of severe weather in the last two weeks of November after all.

[packbacker]

JMA seasonal just released and it's not great. Shows some ridging out west but heigher heights in the east. It is wet in the SE. So from the seasonal models you have Euro/JMA/CFS showing warm and UK showing cold.

To be fair the JMA is showing equal chances for the SE for temps.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/probfcst/4mE/fcst/fcst_gl.php

[Cold Rain]

JMA seasonal just released and it's not great. Shows some ridging out west but heigher heights in the east. It is wet in the SE. So from the seasonal models you have Euro/JMA/CFS showing warm and UK showing cold.

To be fair the JMA is showing equal chances for the SE for temps.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/probfcst/4mE/fcst/fcst_gl.php

 

Virtually all of the winter forecasts put out by anyone putting out a forecast are pointing in the same direction -- cold and snowy.  But most of the seasonal models are showing warm.  Admittedly, I will start to feel better once we see some of those flip over.  The UK is ok, but the rest, so far, nasomuch.  Maybe they all completely suck and don't have a clue, but still....

[SnowNiner]

Virtually all of the winter forecasts put out by anyone putting out a forecast are pointing in the same direction -- cold and snowy.  But most of the seasonal models are showing warm.  Admittedly, I will start to feel better once we see some of those flip over.  The UK is ok, but the rest, so far, nasomuch.  Maybe they all completely suck and don't have a clue, but still....

 

That seems really odd considering all the technical indices that historically teleconnect to cold and snowy for the SE.  What in the world are they seeing that all the mets and the winter outlooks are not?  There seems to be a disconnect somewhere that's not being discussed. 

[GaWx]

That seems really odd considering all the technical indices that historically teleconnect to cold and snowy for the SE. What in the world are they seeing that all the mets and the winter outlooks are not? There seems to be a disconnect somewhere that's not being discussed.

Food for thought: Maybe they're "seeing" that next great undiscovered index that trumps everything else and that is suggesting warmth? What if that is really what is occurring? Could there be some kind of condition that is quite significant that suggests warmth but is pretty much being ignored because mets are just unaware. However, I really don't think that is the case. It is hard for me to believe that these warm seasonal model predictions are not way out to lunch. I mean the support for cold by the known indices is about as strong as one could reasonably expect when looking back in history.

[packbacker]

Food for thought: Maybe they're "seeing" that next great undiscovered index that trumps everything else and that is suggesting warmth? What if that is really what is occurring? Could there be some kind of condition that is quite significant that suggests warmth but is pretty much being ignored because mets are just unaware. However, I really don't think that is the case. It is hard for me to believe that these warm seasonal model predictions are not way out to lunch. I mean the support for cold by the known indices is about as strong as one could reasonably expect when looking back in history.

I agree, but it is puzzling. For the JMA it has +AO for Dec/Jan but does have -AO for Feb. Feb is cooler.

[SnowNiner]

Food for thought: Maybe they're "seeing" that next great undiscovered index that trumps everything else and that is suggesting warmth? What if that is really what is occurring? Could there be some kind of condition that is quite significant that suggests warmth but is pretty much being ignored because mets are just unaware. However, I really don't think that is the case. It is hard for me to believe that these warm seasonal model predictions are not way out to lunch. I mean the support for cold by the known indices is about as strong as one could reasonably expect when looking back in history.

 

Well that's in the back of mind considering last year the EPO was the wild card that gave us a cool winter when many argued warm.  I would hope they come around in the next few weeks.

[Brick Tamland]

Virtually all of the winter forecasts put out by anyone putting out a forecast are pointing in the same direction -- cold and snowy.  But most of the seasonal models are showing warm.  Admittedly, I will start to feel better once we see some of those flip over.  The UK is ok, but the rest, so far, nasomuch.  Maybe they all completely suck and don't have a clue, but still....

 

 

That seems really odd considering all the technical indices that historically teleconnect to cold and snowy for the SE.  What in the world are they seeing that all the mets and the winter outlooks are not?  There seems to be a disconnect somewhere that's not being discussed. 

 

 

All of the mets I have seen on here and other places are calling for a big winter with above average snowfall here. I have never seen so many call for the same thing like that and be so bullish about it. And they all give great evidence for why they are thinking that way. It really would be one of the biggest busts ever if it doesn't turn out that way.

[packbacker]

All of the mets I have seen on here and other places are calling for a big winter with above average snowfall here. I have never seen so many call for the same thing like that and be so bullish about it. And they all give great evidence for why they are thinking that way. It really would be one of the biggest busts ever if it doesn't turn out that way.

Snowniner said it best above. The EPO ruled last winter when many mets, not all, were calling for a warm winter. Busts can happen. We need to start looking at the warm weak nino's as for what happened those winters. There isn't many with a +PDO.

[Cold Rain]

All of the mets I have seen on here and other places are calling for a big winter with above average snowfall here. I have never seen so many call for the same thing like that and be so bullish about it. And they all give great evidence for why they are thinking that way. It really would be one of the biggest busts ever if it doesn't turn out that way.

 

That is true.  But why are the models not agreeing?  With the exception of the UK, the rest are neutral or mild.  Why is that?  Maybe they're just flat out wrong, which I would totally expect if December were still months away.  But winter is on the doorstep, and by now, you'd think we would start seeing a fairly significant step toward a colder forecast.

[Brick Tamland]

That is true.  But why are the models not agreeing?  With the exception of the UK, the rest are neutral or mild.  Why is that?  Maybe they're just flat out wrong, which I would totally expect if December were still months away.  But winter is on the doorstep, and by now, you'd think we would start seeing a fairly significant step toward a colder forecast.

 

 

Well, I guess we'll have to see what wins out, the meteorology and past evidence the mets used to make their calls for winter, or the models.

[GaWx]

I agree, but it is puzzling. For the JMA it has +AO for Dec/Jan but does have -AO for Feb. Feb is cooler.

In light of the second best SAI and OPI, it would be a bust of near epic proportions if Dec-Jan end up with a +AO! I mean these two are suggesting not just a run of the mill -AO. They're suggesting a strongly -AO is most likely...say sub -1 and quite possibly a rare sub -2 for the average over DJF.

[GaWx]

Snowniner said it best above. The EPO ruled last winter when many mets, not all, were calling for a warm winter. Busts can happen. We need to start looking at the warm weak nino's as for what happened those winters. There isn't many with a +PDO.

The list of warm weak to low end moderate Nino winters with a solid +PDO and -AO is very short as you suspect. Actually, I think you won't find any.

[Cold Rain]

In light of the second best SAI and OPI, it would be a bust of near epic proportions if Dec-Jan end up with a +AO! I mean these two are suggesting not just a run of the mill -AO. They're suggesting a strongly -AO is most likely...say sub -1 and quite possibly a rare sub -2 for the average over DJF.

 

I will say this, if this winter fails to be a cold one in the eastern US, then we need to completely go back to the drawing board with winter forecasting.

[Bob Chill]

Sometimes I think seasonals and long range models beyond 30 days causes more harm than good. They did awful with Enso for months on end. I'm not saying they have no use because they do. But if we lined up a year of seasonal runs, what is the verfication accuracy? Lately it has seemed pretty bad but I don't have proof and I really don't pay too much attention to them. 

 

Looking at what we know from tracking everything this fall, the human consensus is quite different than the seasonal model consensus. If the AO ends up positive this year on the means it will be an unprecedented bust based on quite a bit of research. A -ao doesn't guaranty cold in the east but other factors in conjunction with a -ao sure seem to favor cold in the east. The +PDO looks great and the pattern will support a continuation of improving that region. Enso is looking quite good now as well. 

 

If we go warm this winter is can really happen only a couple ways. +AO/NAO  or -pna/pac flood or nasty vortex setting up shop around AK/bearing sea or combination of any of those. Is that really favored from all available data? 

[Cold Rain]

Sometimes I think seasonals and long range models beyond 30 days causes more harm than good. They did awful with Enso for months on end. I'm not saying they have no use because they do. But if we lined up a year of seasonal runs, what is the verfication accuracy? Lately it has seemed pretty bad but I don't have proof and I really don't pay too much attention to them. 

 

Looking at what we know from tracking everything this fall, the human consensus is quite different than the seasonal model consensus. If the AO ends up positive this year on the means it will be an unprecedented bust based on quite a bit of research. A -ao doesn't guaranty cold in the east but other factors in conjunction with a -ao sure seem to favor cold in the east. The +PDO looks great and the pattern will support a continuation of improving that region. Enso is looking quite good now as well. 

 

If we go warm this winter is can really happen only a couple ways. +AO/NAO  or -pna/pac flood or nasty vortex setting up shop around AK/bearing sea or combination of any of those. Is that really favored from all available data?

 

Good points, Bob.  The answer to that last question is NO.  Of course, if those flies in the buttermilk occur, it means that virtually everyone has missed something important (or maybe missed isn't the right word...maybe instead it would be  something not known, as opposed to missed).

 

Don't get me wrong, I think the seasonals are out to lunch.  But it's going to be a pretty spectacular bust if they're not.

[SnowNiner]

The list of warm weak to low end moderate Nino winters with a solid +PDO and -AO is very short as you suspect. Actually, I think you won't find any.

 

Wait what? You mean having a weak nino with a +PDO....and a -AO's never happened?  Ever?  Maybe there's a meteorological reason for that and that's what the models are seeing.  They look like they're seeing the +PDO and the Nino....maybe the -AO don't mix for some reason.