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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

LithiaWx

By LithiaWx,
in Southeastern States

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calm_days

calm_days

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Posted

While this exploration explains particularly about lightning; it seems like it would relate to at least some of the more subtle electromagnetic activity in the atmosphere as well.  

 

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/11/141119204849.htm

 

``The sun may be playing a part in the generation of lightning strikes on Earth by temporarily 'bending' the Earth's magnetic field and allowing a shower of energetic particles to enter the upper atmosphere.``

 

If nothing else, this will be the first winter weather season following the release of this more coherent explanation about sun - planet meteorological interactions.  There is enough data being generated that it may be possible to see if heavier winter weather has correlation or inverse correlation to the dynamics of the sun! :)

 

I wonder, but with no proof yet, that some of the electromagnetic behavior of the oceans could be affected by how the mixed heliosphere - earth atmosphere is behaving at the time.  Oceans seem to me as an amateur, to have a role in at least some winter weather phenomena due to how often oceanic genesis of large ULLs creates enough electrostatic and fluid movement in the atmosphere to then catalyse continental moisture fetches and pressure system behavior.  

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

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it looks like most of the country is normal with the plains Slightly below. If it's normal than how can their forecast "bust hard"?

 

-1 to -3 F is not a small departure.  Most of the country isn't normal on that map.  He was using late 70's analogs.  It's pretty clear that isn't going to happen unless all the modeling is wrong.

 

I hope December doesn't;t come in well above, I can tell you though weatherbell didn't see what the models are showing coming.  JB is backpedaling as fast as he can from what I'm hearing. 

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packbacker

packbacker

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The 12z Euro says "you thought the 00z was bad?"

 

It's warm, good golf weather though, so we got that going for us.  

 

I do like how the blocking is starting to come together, the lower heights over Greenland are diminishing, we got lower heights over the S/SE into the atlantic.  I have my NAO beer goggles on so to me it looks like it could develop into a traditional -NAO down the road.

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GreensboroWx

GreensboroWx

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-1 to -3 F is not a small departure.  Most of the country isn't normal on that map.  He was using late 70's analogs.  It's pretty clear that isn't going to happen unless all the modeling is wrong.

It's not even Dec yet, so I'm not sure it's clear one way or another....I'm not trusting the modeling beyond 5 days at this point. 

 

Lets make a judgement whether the forecast is right/wrong once we get to the end of Dec!

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

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-1 to -3 F is not a small departure. Most of the country isn't normal on that map. He was using late 70's analogs. It's pretty clear that isn't going to happen unless all the modeling is wrong.

I hope December doesn't;t come in well above, I can tell you though weatherbell didn't see what the models are showing coming. JB is backpedaling as fast as he can from what I'm hearing.

jb is not backpedaling, you should only discuss what he has been actually saying instead of repeating gossip. This is how wrong information gets spread. All of the models showed a torch for Nov and the analogs won out.

Back to the dec forecast about 60-70% of the country is normal to above, not sure how their forecast will be a bus with normal temperatures?

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

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It's warm, good golf weather though, so we got that going for us.

I do like how the blocking is starting to come together, the lower heights over Greenland are diminishing, we got lower heights over the S/SE into the atlantic. I have my NAO beer goggles on so to me it looks like it could develop into a traditional -NAO down the road.

looks almost nino like.
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superjames1992

superjames1992

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-1 to -3 F is not a small departure.  Most of the country isn't normal on that map.  He was using late 70's analogs.  It's pretty clear that isn't going to happen unless all the modeling is wrong.

 

I hope December doesn't;t come in well above, I can tell you though weatherbell didn't see what the models are showing coming.  JB is backpedaling as fast as he can from what I'm hearing. 

 

Keep in mind that December could still come out cold for all we know, even if the Euro/GFS are correct about the early portion of the month.

 

I know some of the seasonal models don't really support the idea, but I've seen the seasonal models crash and burn too many times to give a crap.

 

In any case, I'm not too concerned about losing early December.  I can only think of two early December wintry events in my lifetime that were notable (December 2002 and December 2010).  It's hardly primo climo time.  Now, if we torch in mid-January, then that would suck more.

 

December, as a month, probably stands a higher chance of coming out above average compared to below average, but it is what it is.  The first three weeks could torch, then in the final week after Christmas, we could go into an icebox and have a massive snowstorm for all we know (not predicting that will happen by any means).  Four weeks is a long way away.

 

I just don't understand why people get so down on long-range patterns two weeks out.  If anything, just use it as a break to catch a breath before we (hopefully) return to a colder regime later on.

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

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Keep in mind that December could still come out cold for all we know, even if the Euro/GFS are correct about the early portion of the month.

I know some of the seasonal models don't really support the idea, but I've seen the seasonal models crash and burn too many times to give a crap.

In any case, I'm not too concerned about losing early December. I can only think of two early December wintry events in my lifetime that were notable (December 2002 and December 2010). It's hardly primo climo time. Now, if we torch in mid-January, then that would suck more.

December, as a month, probably stands a higher chance of coming out above average compared to below average, but it is what it is. The first three weeks could torch, then in the final week after Christmas, we could go into an icebox and have a massive snowstorm for all we know (not predicting that will happen by any means). Four weeks is a long way away.

I just don't understand why people get so down on long-range patterns two weeks out. If anything, just use it as a break to catch a breath before we (hopefully) return to a colder regime later on.

Great post.

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dsaur

dsaur

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I like the long range, because that's where the rain is.  Goofy's been trying to form a Ull out in Texas and drop a storm into, or near the gulf, and that's my fantasy fix, lol.  Gom lows are the snizz.  It gets cold in Dec. no worries...just like it won't be cold all month, it won't be warm every day either.  There will be a night or two cold enough for snow, if there is rain falling.  If it's dry, who cares if it's 20, or 50, except for cold lovers like me:)  The long range is a tool, like the short range, and not meant to be taken as the solid future, any more than a three day model that says I'll get a half in of rain, and I get a tenth.  It's all about patterns, and possibilities, depending on variables..just at different resolutions.  .1 as opposed to .5, is about like a storm that shows up at day 10 actually occurs on day 13.  It's only a relative miss, because there are just too many variables.  If a panda farts in China, and a dolphin slaps it's tail in the mid Pacific, and three flying fish jump, and one flies into a floating coconut and sets it spinning counter clockwise, it may, or may not affect the outcome of a model, but it's the kind of thing programmers have problems with, and thus models tend to fail on many the  occasion, long term or short term..... but why wouldn't  you use it as a tool before your brain formulates a postulation as to the future of the weather?  Why dismiss it out of hand?  Programmers include a long range for a reason... possibly so people who can't control the weather will have something completely out of their control to argue about, but also because it can show patterns out far enough for some folks to get a glimpse at what weather might enfold out there.  You could program Deep Thought to look at the weather, but the likely outcome will still be 42, if asked if it will snow in Atl. this winter, and that won't be any more wrong that Goofy at 12 days, and can often be right, in a general way.  Can't know until you get there, but it's silly to discount 42 until you know what it means.  T

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FallsLake

FallsLake

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Every day just looks warmer and warmer. :(

The GFS is really not that warm. Even looking at the LR day 15 it shows the upper pattern as very bad for wintery precip but the low level temps still cold for the depicted pattern.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=360ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_360_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141129+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=11&model_dd=29&model_init_hh=06&fhour=360&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

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Met1985

Met1985

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Just my two cents but you really cannot trust the models 5+ days out. I remember in November people were going warm for the middle to the end of the month. I remember people posting maps of us torching at Thanksgiving. Look how that turned out. Pretty darn cold and we had 3-4 inches of snow on the ground. You would think people would not get caught up in the long range chase year after year but it never fails people look at the models 10+ days out and take it literal. Enjoy whatever is coming up. I am sure it will change as we head into the middle of December.

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packbacker

packbacker

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Yeah, the GFS/GEFS is cooler 2m temps in the east day 11-15 but that model has a cold bias, we saw that last week when it was showing 2m temps from 5 days out much colder than what verified.    I don't think we will be in the 70's or anything but mid-upper 50's, slightly above average is a good bet though mid-Dec.  But, if its wet we may cooler than average, low 50's, just due to the rain and cloud cover.  

 

This is hideous, no blocking whatsoever (+AO,+NAO)....

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