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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

LithiaWx

By LithiaWx,
in Southeastern States

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

Tony/all,

 Happy Thanksgiving. As I said, I looked at Nov. rainfall vs. DJF rainfall at KATL. The first column is Nov. rain. The 2nd-4th are the percentages of DJF that were dry/near normal/wet. Dry is under 11.5" while wet is 16"+. The size of the sample is large, 135 years.

 

0-2":  35%/43%/23%

2-4":  24%/39%/37%

4"+:   45%/34%/20%

 

 So, you can see from this that for the 135 year sample, the best chance for a wet DJF has been when Nov. rain is 2-4". Dry Novembers not surprisingly favor normal to dry DJF's. Interestingly, wet Novembers also favor normal to dry, which is seemingly counterintuitive.

 

 Now, I'll look at the 34 similar ENSO analogs, alone:

 

0-2": 3/5/0 38%/63%/00%

2-4": 3/4/7  21%/29%/50%

4"+:  7/2/3  58%/17%/25%

 

 This is pretty similar. If you want a wet DJF, the best bet for Nov. rain has been 2-4".

 

 Year by year of Nov. rainfall for ENSO analogs: 0.30”, 0.41”, 0.54", 1.04", 1.27", 1.35”, 1.55” 1.79”, 2.12", 2.14", 2.33", 2.35", 2.63", 2.67", 2.84", 2.92", 3.27”, 3.55”, 3.56”, 3.62", 3.81", 3.98”, 4.11", 4.17", 4.39", 4.81", 4.89", 5.19", 5.61", 6.20”, 6.26", 7.18", 7.26”, 8.21"

 

Brown = dry DJF

Black = near normal DJF

Green = wet DJF

 

 Note that no under 2" November was followed by a wet DJF, which is intuitive. It looks like Nov. 2014 will end up with 3.85". That is near the high end of the most concentrated Novembers that preceded wet DJF's though it isn't far from a group of Nov.'s that preceded dry DJF's fwiw. So, it is hard to say what a 3.85" November means except to say that that position probably isn't screaming dry DJF.

 

 Wet DJF's among ENSO analogs: 1880-1, 1884-5, 1900-1, 1914-5, 1919-20, 1935-6, 1936-7, 1951-2, 1952-3, 1963-4

 

 Note that it has been a whopping 51 years since the last wet DJF of the 34 ENSO analogs! That means that none of the last 11 ENSO analog DJF's have been wet. So, a wet one is due fwiw (in case it goes in cycles).

Thanks for this!  Interesting, but makes sense.  We are leaving the driest months and entering the wettest months so dragging a drought out of the dry months says most likely it will continue until some blocking/ridging/troughing works to bring the water trail south.  If the Pac is messed up then the water road can move away, and since I find it much harder to break a drought, than to start a drought, lol, I've always thought water in the late fall bodes well for water in the winter when it's normally wet, ..... because patterns start to make themselves known.... unless you get the pole down on you, and then....well, that's a nice drought starter, lol.  To many factors to make predictions, but it looks like we are wet enough this month for look forward to at least a normal winter's rains.  I'm watching the long range for gulf involved rains, and watching how they verify, or not, to try to get the jist of what Goofy is selling.  I never watch the temps out there, just the rains moving across the Pacific, and the air masses moving down from the far north.  I watch the fluid dynamics over and over, looking for patterns, watching ripples and eddys, blockages and releases.......   until I reach a weather zen state, profound and deep..... and I'm able to .................... sleep better, lol.  T

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

I'm not a subscriber, but if he's pulling his hair out after his  late '70's analogues, no surprise.

Yeah, his forecast would be in trouble from the look of the Euro ENS/seasonal and JMA seasonal/monthly. I still feel things will turn around, eventually. Might as well enjoy the warmup as it should be a cold eventually.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

What do tonight's Euro Weeklies show?

Just quickly glanced at them. Week 1-2 is warm, week 3 is neutral and week 4 is colder looking. WB doesn't have weekly summaries like Larry gets. Need him to confirm.

Also, by the end you see a -AO/-NAO develop, of course this is around Xmas time. Long ways off.

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deltadog03

deltadog03

Posted
Posted

Hmmm..that could happen, I suppose.  Im curious to see why the euro busted so bad last winter.  I must say, the euro is the king in the mid and longer range, but not immune.  In fact, its been really strugglin' in the 7-15 day range.  Tells me the pattern is very complex and ever changing right now.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

So, we're looking 4 weeks out, again?

 

Per the weeklies, yes, it's 3+ weeks until something looks favorable, after Dec 20th.  Literally, it's more of a central based trough after the 20th rather than east coast trough, but there is blocking which is really the only thing I am hoping to get in Dec.    So when I spoke of cold above, it's central based, not in the east.  But it's a start.

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Wow

Wow

Posted
Posted

With all due respect, and no sarcasm intended -- so?

 

What will that buy us?

 

(I'm really not sure what a NP block, standing alone, would do, and how it would affect this part of the hemisphere)

 

That was sort of the point... Despite a -AO it can still be a crappy pattern.

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CAD_Wedge_NC

CAD_Wedge_NC

Posted
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I know it's the NAM, but the end of the run (84hours) it shows a much stronger high pressure dropping down into the northern plains than the GFS. Also, it's cold with 850's at -30C in the arrow-head of MN. This is might just be strong enough and cold enough to provide some wintry fun in the damming zone.... I must admit, this is looking more interesting as we approach the event. NWS is calling for near normal temps on Tues. If this high wedges down into our area, we will not be normal.... that's a guarantee. However, it is the NAM and its' track record at that time-frame is less than stellar. Let's see what the future runs will tell us.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
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Per the weeklies, yes, it's 3+ weeks until something looks favorable, after Dec 20th.  Literally, it's more of a central based trough after the 20th rather than east coast trough, but there is blocking which is really the only thing I am hoping to get in Dec.    So when I spoke of cold above, it's central based, not in the east.  But it's a start.

 

 Euro weeklies: I see a +NAO weeks 1-3 followed by a modest -NAO week 4. Modest -AO's dominate weeks 1-4.

 

 Two meter temp.'s are a bit above normal weeks 1-2 followed by only slightly above normal weeks 3-4 fwiw.

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

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If December it above normal, do we cancel winter or just look forward to the two months when we normally get our winter storms, just like last year!?

Some will cancel. The wise folks will punt a few weeks.

I do find it funny that you had some people on the board swearing up and down about a wall to wall winter. 1978-1979 analogs still in effect. How about now? Naso much.

I still think there is an above average chance at a below normal DJF with above normal snowfall.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
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 The Euro weeklies pretty much have warmer than normal SE temp.'s for all four weeks though with anomalies diminishing. Could the Euro weeklies be way off, especially as we get toward mid Dec.? Well, if we base it on how Nov. was treated, the answer is that that is quite possible. I just reviewed the Euro weeklies' forecasts for November. (I save them for reviews like this.) What's interesting is that all of the weeklies from 10/16 through 10/30 had warmth in November! Yes, even the 10/30 one had a lot of warmth just ahead!! Then the 11/3 magically turned on a dime and correctly predicted cold to dominate. Subsequent weeklies had cold for Nov.

 

 So, what does this tell us? Could they be dead wrong again at least, say, for around mid month? After all it is only 11/27!

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