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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

LithiaWx

By LithiaWx,
in Southeastern States

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Yeah, I was thinking of a big wound up system. But there's no rule that says a system has to be a big wound up one. In that scenario, your scenario works out!

 

CR,

 What's quite interesting for at least the ATL-AHN corridor of N GA is that the vast majority of the dozens of widespread major snows going back to the late 1800's have been in association with a weak to at most moderate strength Miller A while still in the Gulf based on my look at numerous old wx maps. That area has been hit a good number of times by lows that were mainly 1010ish for much of the time in the Gulf. So, for that reason, major phasing isn't so important for that area. Any possible winding up almost always waits till the low gets to off of the SE coast, when the SN for ATL-AHN is pretty much done. Too much winding up too early often makes it dicey for that area to remain cold enough in all levels to sustain snow due to the too far north track and the associated increase in WAA. The perfect setup is so delicate as Pack suggests. Otherwise, ATL-AHN, among others, would be getting them left and right.

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

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This is cold air that, on the map, is bottled up in Canada. It's believed that the cold air that it depicts will get pushed southward around the first week of December. The Euro is showing a -AO and -NAO for that period. 

 

Believed by who?  Everything right now suggests the first week of December to be very benign winter weather wise and the 240 hours Euro from this afternoon looks like a train wreck if you are looking for cold here.

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

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Believed by who?  Everything right now suggests the first week of December to be very benign winter weather wise and the 240 hours Euro from this afternoon looks like a train wreck if you are looking for cold here.

Then you go read the models verbatim and let's see who is correct. None of them have been correct 7 days out. 

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packbacker

packbacker

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Believed by who?  Everything right now suggests the first week of December to be very benign winter weather wise and the 240 hours Euro from this afternoon looks like a train wreck if you are looking for cold here.

 

Day 11-15 on the Euro ENS we start see a -AO develop, a -NAO is trying hard and you are getting troughing in central/east.  I think before Dec 10th is premature, buy just a guess.

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

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I think we enter an extended period of warming, beginning this weekend. November will turn out to be a very cold month nationwide, especially west of the apps.  Still cold, but not as much east of the apps.  The extended warming likely goes into week two of December at least.  I hope I eat my words, as I like cold weather, but the extended does look like a train wreck for cold in the southeast or east.

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

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Then you go read the models verbatim and let's see who is correct. None of them have been correct 7 days out.

 

Then why are you citing Euro runs showing -AO's 10 + days out?

 

 

I think he means day 11-15…on the Euro ENS we start see a -AO develop, a -NAO is trying hard and you are getting troughing in central/east.  I think before Dec 10th is premature, buy just a guess.

 

It's possible, I tend to think things are very uncertain around days 10-15.  We could move towards cold of warmth.  I think it's way too early to tell.  Also if you look at the AO/NAO index predictions you see a split of some + and some -. 

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

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Been a November to remember here in the triad, despite the torch today, it will go down as top 5, if not coldest November on record when all is said and done by weeks end.

Anyway I still am wagering by 12/31 December comes in below average but definetly not to the extree we've seen with November. Should be seasonal the 1st 10 days, but the Pna holds the key and just like we've seen this past month I expect the cold shots to keep coming down in repetitive fashion. May not have the Nao negative to hold em here, but the rythym of the pattern is hard to ignore.

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dsaur

dsaur

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This is cold air that, on the map, is bottled up in Canada. It's believed that the cold air that it depicts will get pushed southward around the first week of December. The Euro is showing a -AO and -NAO for that period. 

I'll take that gulf low showing up on the Goofy long range, and the maybe push of cold air than maybe wants to come down on the same, and run with it, lol.  Sure the cold are slides off to the up east, and the gulf low looks way too dynamic, but heck it's way off in fantasy land, so it won't happen as depicted, if at all.  Doesn't mean I don't enjoy thinking how nice it would be to have that low form, but weaker, and have that cold air make a bee line right for me.  Probably won't happen, usually never happens, but if I can get my usual fun out of something that will never happen, I'm all for it, lol.  Winter in the south is all about fantasy anyway, because once in a blue moon moon magic does happen :)  If I had to live for today, in winter, mostly likely I'll be in shorts, like I am now, with the freakin' sun out...no fun in that in summer, or winter...but a gom low 12 days out that might get a cold blast to give it some life?  Beats the hell out of shorts!!!  T

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superjames1992

superjames1992

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Well, the 18z GFS decided to key on the second S/W and gave central NC some snow on Thanksgiving. It will probably die out over the mountains, though. Well, unless surface temperatures were torching again. I didn't look. The NAM was further north with the small system. I'm sure threading the needle will work out really well for us...

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GaWx

GaWx

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 This evening's Euro weeklies do show a -AO dominated period for weeks 2-4 though probably not a severe -AO. A +NAO still dominates week 2, but it drops to near neutral for weeks 3-4. Somewhat of a +PNA appears to be getting reestablished during week 3 and is in place as of week 4 (12/15-21). At 2 meters in the SE US, week 2 is very warm, week 3 is not as warm (warmth moving out), and week 4 is slightly colder than normal (good trend fwiw). IF this were to verify fairly closely, the SE would have a warm first half of Dec. (warmest first week), followed by a chilly start to the second half. Regarding my personal feeling, this would be just fine as far as overall cold winter prospects are concerned.

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GaWx

GaWx

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Nope. You're just flat out wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong! It caught everyone by complete surprise. It was predicted by nobody. NOBODY, I say!

#goodgriefmax

CR,

Lol. However, in all fairness, even today's 18Z GFS had a high of only 64 at KATL, a whopping 11 degrees cooler than what verified assuming a high of 75 (since it could have gotten even a tad warmer). I fully realize the GFS has a cold bias and that being warmer than the GFS isn't normally all that noteworthy. However, 11 degrees is quite impressive. Looking at the GFS more closely, it was largely a cloudcover issue as you might guess. Whereas the 18Z GFS had 80-90% cloudcover most of the day, it was actually mostly sunny there much of the day.

 

Edit: So, KATL went from a tie for the coldest high for 11/18 to at least a tie for the warmest high on 11/24. Wild stuff!

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

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CR,

Lol. However, in all fairness, even today's 18Z GFS had a high of only 64 at KATL, a whopping 11 degrees cooler than what verified assuming a high of 75 (since it could have gotten even a tad warmer). I fully realize the GFS has a cold bias and that being warmer than the GFS isn't normally all that noteworthy. However, 11 degrees is quite impressive. Looking at the GFS more closely, it was largely a cloudcover issue as you might guess. Whereas the 18Z GFS had 80-90% cloudcover most of the day, it was actually mostly sunny there much of the day.

Edit: So, KATL went from a tie for the coldest high for 11/18 to at least a tie for the warmest high on 11/24. Wild stuff!

Well, honestly, I didn't look at the modeled temps at all. I was just reacting to Max seemingly once again demonstrating a propensity for hyperbole. Every weather event is a bust for Max.

In a general sense, Iso is correct in that this warm up has been discussed at length for days.

For our area, temps in the 70s were correctly forecasted.

Maybe for Max's area, it was supposed to be chilly today, according to the collective group of media and weather outlets that forecast for that area. If that's the case, then Max won this round! :)

I saw your other post on the weeklies. Thanks for sharing that. Sounds like it seems like it looks like I heard you say it was a step in the right direction.

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GaWx

GaWx

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Well, honestly, I didn't look at the modeled temps at all. I was just reacting to Max seemingly once again demonstrating a propensity for hyperbole. Every weather event is a bust for Max.

In a general sense, Iso is correct in that this warm up has been discussed at length for days.

For our area, temps in the 70s were correctly forecasted.

Maybe for Max's area, it was supposed to be chilly today, according to the collective group of media and weather outlets that forecast for that area. If that's the case, then Max won this round! :)

I saw your other post on the weeklies. Thanks for sharing that. Sounds like it seems like it looks like I heard you say it was a step in the right direction.

 

CR,

 I agree that Iso is correct in the general sense about the warming. No question about that.

 

 Yes, I think it is a good step. Also, like you said, that AER (whatever that is) looks quite delicious! Also, the newest JAMSTEC looks quite nice! I'm as pumped as I've ever been for this winter.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

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CR,

I agree that Iso is correct in the general sense about the warming. No question about that.

Yes, I think it is a good step. Also, like you said, that AER (whatever that is) looks quite delicious! Also, the newest JAMSTEC looks quite nice! I'm as pumped as I've ever been for this winter.

Yeah, I've never seen the AER thing, but it looks awesome. Wasn't the Jammin' Jamstec warmer on last month's run?

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GaWx

GaWx

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Yeah, I've never seen the AER thing, but it looks awesome. Wasn't the Jammin' Jamstec warmer on last month's run?

 

 Yes, the JAMSTEC was warmer last month though still chilly. It had the coldest centered in the middle of the US rather than the S & E. Two runs ago was near normal. The rest of the runs (April through August) were solidly cold similar to the new one.

 The latest precip. is slightly wetter than normal for DJF in GA/SC/NC, which is a bonus to me since I would take near normal per analogs.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

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Yes, the JAMSTEC was warmer last month though still chilly. It had the coldest centered in the middle of the US rather than the S & E. Two runs ago was near normal. The rest of the runs (April through August) were solidly cold similar to the new one.

The latest precip. is slightly wetter than normal for DJF in GA/SC/NC, which is a bonus to me since I would take near normal per analogs.

Good deal. So we have the November Jamstec and the AER thing, whatever that is, and it seems like there's one more all showing cold. And we have the Euro Seasonal, CFS, JMA, and what else showing warm? The Brazilian? Eurosips?

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toxictwister00

toxictwister00

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Well, honestly, I didn't look at the modeled temps at all. I was just reacting to Max seemingly once again demonstrating a propensity for hyperbole. Every weather event is a bust for Max.

In a general sense, Iso is correct in that this warm up has been discussed at length for days.

For our area, temps in the 70s were correctly forecasted.

Maybe for Max's area, it was supposed to be chilly today, according to the collective group of media and weather outlets that forecast for that area. If that's the case, then Max won this round! :)

I saw your other post on the weeklies. Thanks for sharing that. Sounds like it seems like it looks like I heard you say it was a step in the right direction.

 

I didn't see or follow every local forecast around here, but the ones I did never forecast Atlanta to be higher than 70 today so I was also kinda caught by surprise when I saw we broke a record high by reaching the upper 70s today.

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Snowless in Carrollton

Snowless in Carrollton

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Yes, the JAMSTEC was warmer last month though still chilly. It had the coldest centered in the middle of the US rather than the S & E. Two runs ago was near normal. The rest of the runs (April through August) were solidly cold similar to the new one.

The latest precip. is slightly wetter than normal for DJF in GA/SC/NC, which is a bonus to me since I would take near normal per analogs.

wetter than normal for AL as well ?
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GaWx

GaWx

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Good deal. So we have the November Jamstec and the AER thing, whatever that is, and it seems like there's one more all showing cold. And we have the Euro Seasonal, CFS, JMA, and what else showing warm? The Brazilian? Eurosips?

 

What warm outlooks? I must confess that I suddenly get amnesiac when I see warm winter outlooks.

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