Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

[GaWx]

Heavy rolling thunder just now. I'm pretty sure that means I'll get snow on the next big holiday...or maybe it's fog...I'm a bit foggy on that, lol. Interesting month since Halloween, and more to come. I love oddities in winter, not just the usual cold and dry, wet and warm.

Dang, that one shook the house. Big boomers just to my south. T

Tony,

I plan to soon make a post about how November rainfall relates to DJF rainfall in Atlanta. I found some interesting things. You are always well respected for your emphasis on following rainfall and noting that you can't have wintry precip. without it. So, you have inspired me to do some Nov rainfall related research. Look for it here soon (within couple of days).

By the way, I've been hearing rolling thunder a few times here in Dunwoody over the last 15 minutes or so.

Aside: go GT! Will they break that FSU 27 game streak?

[pcbjr]

Yes, computer generated with no human input, and it's only anomalies, but "dad gum it" ... whats happened to cold... {maybe next week} .....

 

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Any chance that December ends up warmer than November ?

[machetemoonlight]

Any chance that December ends up warmer than November ?

Yes.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Yes.

I wonder how rare that is or if it's ever happened. I bet Larry would know.

[machetemoonlight]

I wonder how rare that is or if it's ever happened. I bet Larry would know.

just glancing at Chattanooga's weather-warehouse records.. I see several. I'm sure there's more.

 

* I counted 5 times since 1900 November's averaged out warmer than Dec. No idea how those years match up to this year though. Good question actually.

[GaWx]

I wonder how rare that is or if it's ever happened. I bet Larry would know.

 

1984, 1971, 1956, 1933, 1923 (weak Nino), 1911 (mod. Nino), 1889

 

Despite the cold Nov., I'd be pretty surprised if Dec. is warmer as a whole than Nov. because I'm expecting a nice cooldown by the 2nd half. Of course, anomalywise, it will be no contest!

[mackerel_sky]

Yes, computer generated with no human input, and it's only anomalies, but "dad gum it" ... whats happened to cold... {maybe next week} .....

814temp.new.gif

We have all known for awhile that the models are showing a warmup at the start of Dec, and that's great, and what we want , according to Larry's analysis, so bring it!

[dsaur]

'Tony,
I plan to soon make a post about how November rainfall relates to DJF rainfall in Atlanta. I found some interesting things. You are always well respected for your emphasis on following rainfall and noting that you can't have wintry precip. without it. So, you have inspired me to do some Nov rainfall related research. Look for it here soon (within couple of days).
By the way, I've been hearing rolling thunder a few times here in Dunwoody over the last 15 minutes or so.
Aside: go GT! Will they break that FSU 27 game streak?'

 

 

That's great, Larry.  I'll look forward to your research.  I wish we could relate amounts to episodes, as it's the individual periods of rain that I think are important.  It seems to me we can easily reach average, or be way above with just a 73 zr storm, or late 70's sleet storms, but it doesn't often do that, fall frozen from huge amounts of liquid.  Usually, based on the airports tepid amounts in most snow storms, the white stuff falls from weak systems, thus no one foot, or above amounts.  An average, or above average winter's precip could come from a Dec gom low, with a dry Jan and Feb following.  I think it's the number of events in the sweet spot months that makes the difference, and it will always get cold enough in Jan, and Feb to snow, but the more changes via rain every few days, in a wet winter, the more chances for snow/ip/z we get.  To me a wet winter is one where we get precip every 3 or 5  days rather than one where it's 3 inches above normal.  I'd rather see numerous .1 or . 2 events than one gom low drop 3 inches of zr, or 33 degree rain, lol.  I'm getting a good soaker last night and today, and that's just the kind of sign I'm looking for.  Chances of the front end, and on the back end if it's cold enough, and going to rain again in a few days with another chance for frozen.  If it keeps up for the winter we'll score.  Don't need 14 degrees, just 31 while it's falling, and 14 the next night.

  As for Tech, well, they've recently discovered the value of defence, so I think they have good chances coming up to get in the big dance.  They need to out score Ga. and if they can win against someone further up the ladder, then beating FSU will not seem so hard.  But, lordy, you need some defence when it comes to playoffs.  I like the Bball squad too.  I think Tech will give me a lot more fun this year, than the Falcons.  Teams from Ga. need to learn to play defense, and not just count on turn overs.  I mean little things like contesting the forward pass, instead of standing there 15 feet away while the other guy gets a free shot.  And then open field tackling, rather than letting him get another 10 yards  with each reception, lol.  I'd give up 15 points each game to have a Claude Humphery type defence.  I love a good 7 to 6 game.  Best game I remember as a kid was Bobby Dodd beating the Bear  something like 6 to 3. You get your monies worth in a game like that!!  All this 56 to 24 stuff is wussy ball.  You only need to score 14 points if you limit the other guy to 10   T

[HKY_WX]

The PV looks to get much stronger over the next few weeks. That will bottle up the cold air over Canada. This is pretty common after extreme cold events like we've seen the last month (at least extreme for november). 

[griteater]

12z Euro Ensemble for long range...

 

850mb temperatures become above normal in the southeast Dec 1 - Dec 8.  Strongest warm anomalies are to our north and northwest, extending from the Rockies to the Northeast states.  Troughing just off the west coast gets replaced with some ridging by day 14-15.  Above normal heights appear over the pole through much of the run, but not very extensive.  AO and NAO stay fairly neutral.

[tnweathernut]

It wouldn't take much to reload and drop the cold hammer again toward the third week in December after looking at day 14 and 15 Euro IMO........if that look is close to accurate.

[LithiaWx]

Euro weeklies : interpretation by Brett Anderson.of Accuweather.

[buckeyefan1]

Euro weeklies : interpretation by Brett Anderson.of Accuweather.

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That looks to be what is to be expected, but the large uncertain area the third week of Dec made me      

[Cold Rain]

That looks to be what is to be expected, but the large uncertain area the third week of Dec made me

Ha! I was thinking the same thing.

[pcbjr]

I'm dropping off the editorial comment bandwagon with this.

 

I just hope that the old folks are wrong about Cold Novembers, warm winters. But I have to give them some credence when I see models repeatedly going warm into mid-December, and folks now talking about "later on" before the hammer drops. Seems like as with some winters past, everything looks set to play, then things seem to change that were not in the equation, and comes SE redux -

 

Debbie Downer

 

[WidreMann]

I'm dropping off the editorial comment bandwagon with this.

 

I just hope that the old folks are wrong about Cold Novembers, warm winters. But I have to give them some credence when I see models repeatedly going warm into mid-December, and folks now talking about "later on" before the hammer drops. Seems like as with some winters past, everything looks set to play, then things seem to change that were not in the equation, and comes SE redux -

 

Debbie Downer

 

02/03 had a pretty decent December warm-up and pattern relaxation, only for us to have a pretty good January and February. The only I winters I remember that were cold early and then sucked were ones that also had really cold Decembers. Then we'd get into early January and it'd flip to warm and stay that way.

[LithiaWx]

I'm dropping off the editorial comment bandwagon with this.

 

I just hope that the old folks are wrong about Cold Novembers, warm winters. But I have to give them some credence when I see models repeatedly going warm into mid-December, and folks now talking about "later on" before the hammer drops. Seems like as with some winters past, everything looks set to play, then things seem to change that were not in the equation, and comes SE redux -

 

Debbie Downer

 

The problem is you have some folks talking wall to wall winter and that's just so rare and hard to do. Yet you have people talking about '76-77 analog still in effect bs. This winter can and probably will end up colder and snowier than normal but IMO there are going to be periods of seasonal and warm weather mixed in. Patience man, patience.

[packbacker]

The problem is you have some folks talking wall to wall winter and that's just so rare and hard to do. Yet you have people talking about '76-77 analog still in effect bs. This winter can and probably will end up colder and snowier than normal but IMO there are going to be periods of seasonal and warm weather mixed in. Patience man, patience.

 

I agree, looks like atleast the first half of Dec will be seasonal to warm.  The CFS for Dec is a just a flat out blowtorch for Dec.  We don't know yet what the 2nd half of Dec will do.  The Nov JAMSTEC is really nice for DJF...

[Cold Rain]

JB (I know, I know) showed in his Saturday Summary that the CFS didn't start predicting a cold November until November. The Jamstec really turned around with this run. The last one wasn't so good, if I remember right. That's a good sign.

[Cold Rain]

PNA looks to go positive in the very LR, in tandem with the AO taking a dive. We'll see if this trend continues.

[packfan98]

PNA looks to go positive in the very LR, in tandem with the AO taking a dive. We'll see if this trend continues.

If we can lock in this Miller A storm track just off Hatteras all winter and get some cold air, I will need a new shovel!

[Brick Tamland]

If we can lock in this Miller A storm track just off Hatteras all winter and get some cold air, I will need a new shovel!

 

Yes, it would be great if we can hold onto a repeating pattern later on in winter like this. The only thing missing with the Thanksgiving eve storm is the cold air, which we will have a better chance of having in December through February. 

[GaWx]

If we can lock in this Miller A storm track just off Hatteras all winter and get some cold air, I will need a new shovel!

For the bulk of the forum to get a widespread major snow, the best bet is usually a Miller A that develops in the western GOM rather than the E GOM based on 140 years or so of history. Now for much of NC, especially in the Triangle, it won't matter so much. Same for a place like Columbia, SC.

[Brick Tamland]

The winter outlook from the State Climate Office of NC looks really good.

 

http://nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climateblog?id=107

[Cold Rain]

For the bulk of the forum to get a widespread major snow, the best bet is usually a Miller A that develops in the western GOM rather than the E GOM based on 140 years or so of history. Now for much of NC, especially in the Triangle, it won't matter so much. Same for a place like Columbia, SC.

 

Larry, I think for the eastern piedmont toward the coastal plain (and probably for eastern SC too), we'd like to see development take place in the eastern gulf and track a little farther off the coast.  For central and western areas, the scenario you described fits the bill nicely.  Hopefully, we'll see plenty of both this year!

[SnowNiner]

For the bulk of the forum to get a widespread major snow, the best bet is usually a Miller A that develops in the western GOM rather than the E GOM based on 140 years or so of history. Now for much of NC, especially in the Triangle, it won't matter so much. Same for a place like Columbia, SC.

 

Yes, agreed.  For CLT I'd much rather have a true Miller A that forms from energy coming across from TX.  Many times CLT is too far west to benefit from late bloomers in the Atlantic. 

[GaWx]

Larry, I think for the eastern piedmont toward the coastal plain (and probably for eastern SC too), we'd like to see development take place in the eastern gulf and track a little farther off the coast. For central and western areas, the scenario you described fits the bill nicely. Hopefully, we'll see plenty of both this year!

CR,

Yeah, it is difficult to make all well inland areas of the SE US equally content and I don't disagree with what you said at all. However, I'm sure you know that there have been many that were W GOM originating Miller A's that moved over N FL and/or S GA and that gave RDU a big winter storm. I guess what I'm saying is that for the well inland areas of the SE including Columbia and RDU, the best shot at making most content IMO (based on history) is for a W GOM originating Miller A as opposed to an E GOM originating Miller A.

[Cold Rain]

CR,

Yeah, it is difficult to make all well inland areas of the SE US equally content and I don't disagree with what you said at all. However, I'm sure you know that there have been many that were W GOM originating Miller A's that moved over N FL and/or S GA and that gave RDU a big winter storm. I guess what I'm saying is that for the well inland areas of the SE including Columbia and RDU, the best shot at making most content IMO (based on history) is for a W GOM originating Miller A as opposed to an E GOM originating Miller A.

Yeah, I was thinking of a big wound up system. But there's no rule that says a system has to be a big wound up one. In that scenario, your scenario works out!

[packbacker]

Yeah, I was thinking of a big wound up system. But there's no rule that says a system has to be a big wound up one. In that scenario, your scenario works out!

 

Miller A's crawling up the coast are great for potential 8+" winter events but they are so fickle to track.  I like a suppressed overrunning event, simple, usually less to go wrong with complicated phases.