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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

LithiaWx

By LithiaWx,
in Southeastern States

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BullCityWx

BullCityWx

Posted
Posted
  On 11/22/2014 at 6:32 PM, packbacker said:

From the Euro maps I got looks like 2m temps hover around 32-34F from I-40N and west of 95 when the heaviest precip is there.

 

This would be infinitely more doable if this started 6 hours later....

 

Definitely trended colder at the SFC this run. We're starting around 4C with this event as opposed to 6 or 7. 

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Here's the Twister snow totals. Looks like RDU would be right at 6" with the coastal plain being the big winner.

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=11&model_dd=22&model_init_hh=12&fhour=108&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted
  On 11/22/2014 at 6:35 PM, Queencitywx said:

Definitely trended colder at the SFC this run. We're starting around 4C with this event as opposed to 6 or 7. 

 

The really good news is we got a few more days for this to play out. Anything is on the table. Will def. not be shocked as you said earlier for this to start trending colder.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted
  On 11/22/2014 at 6:39 PM, burgertime said:

Yep this, going to be a big deal about how much moisture can shed west for everyone.

Let's face it, the farther west this tracks is better for you guys, not RDU, split the GFS and Euro is better for RDU. I have a feeling this trends a little stronger and ticks west as we get closer. Similar to Dec 09. Hopefully someone in the SE sees snow.

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted
  On 11/22/2014 at 6:35 PM, Queencitywx said:

Definitely trended colder at the SFC this run. We're starting around 4C with this event as opposed to 6 or 7. 

There must be a lot of dry air in the mid levels as 850s crash from 4c to below freezing without cold air advection but rather just off of evaporational cooling alone over ga with big drops over the carolinas as well. . Hell 850s go from +8c to below freezing in a few hours  as far south as the florida panhandle...that is some major and unusually high amount of evaporational cooling..so it must be very dry in the mid levels.  Of course that doesn't mean the surface will cool that much or that there is even a lot of dry air at the surface. BUT I have to wonder how deep/close to the surface that dry air is because if it is that dry down to just above the surface, say 950mb,  then this could look a lot better than one would think at first glance, especially over the carolinas.

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BullCityWx

BullCityWx

Posted
Posted
  On 11/22/2014 at 6:48 PM, Lookout said:

There must be a lot of dry air in the mid levels as 850s crash from 4c to below freezing without cold air advection but rather just off of evaporational cooling alone over ga with big drops over the carolinas as well. . Hell 850s go from +8c to below freezing in a few hours  as far south as the florida panhandle...that is some major and unusually high amount of evaporational cooling..so it must be very dry in the mid levels.  Of course that doesn't mean the surface will cool that much or that there is even a lot of dry air at the surface. BUT I have to wonder how deep/close to the surface that dry air is because if it is that dry down to just above the surface, say 950mb,  then this could look a lot better than one would think at first glance, especially over the carolinas.

 

yeah, this is where I really miss those old euro soundings on plymouth. I'm thinking there has to be some significant dewpoint depressions. 

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HKY_WX

HKY_WX

Posted
Posted
  On 11/22/2014 at 6:40 PM, Queencitywx said:

KHKY would start the event at 41/31. That is doable. 

Yea definitely. This could get interesting if we see a trend towards more of a phase. I'm heading home tuesday night for thanksgiving. would be awesome to track a snowstorm.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted
  On 11/22/2014 at 10:43 PM, pcbjr said:

GFS has NAO, AO and AAO all positive and PNA negative going into December.

 

:maprain:

Just like last year... only half joking. Last year the indices never really looked great but it was a great year. As others have said you definitely want them on your side but there's other things that can help provide cold and storms. 

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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
Posted
  On 11/22/2014 at 10:54 PM, FallsLake said:

Just like last year... only half joking. Last year the indices never really looked great but it was a great year. As others have said you definitely want them on your side but there's other things that can help provide cold and storms. 

 

God, let's hope so!

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

Heavy rolling thunder just now.  I'm pretty sure that means I'll get snow on the next big holiday...or maybe it's fog...I'm a bit foggy on that, lol.  Interesting month since Halloween, and more to come.  I love oddities in winter, not just the usual cold and dry, wet and warm. 

   Dang, that one shook the house.  Big boomers just to my south.  T

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