Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

[packbacker]

WB is bogged down, the NE snow weenies must be going nuts.

[BullCityWx]

We do have a couple of things in our favor. 

 

1. Ground is going to be significantly colder than it normally is this time of year. 

2. system just skirting the coast, possibly causing dynamic cooling because of the bombing out. 

3. Low sun angle

 

 

I just cant ignore those BL temps though. 

[packbacker]

From the Euro maps I got looks like 2m temps hover around 32-34F from I-40N and west of 95 when the heaviest precip is there.

 

This would be infinitely more doable if this started 6 hours later....

[Hvward]

BL temps for wnc hoover around 32-34 degrees during the event.  I like the chances for mby.

[BullCityWx]

From the Euro maps I got looks like 2m temps hover around 32-34F from I-40N and west of 95 when the heaviest precip is there.

 

This would be infinitely more doable if this started 6 hours later....

 

Definitely trended colder at the SFC this run. We're starting around 4C with this event as opposed to 6 or 7. 

[HKY_WX]

yep this run is snow. 900-700mb temps are cold enough to induce some dynamical cooling at the sfc.

[FallsLake]

Here's the Twister snow totals. Looks like RDU would be right at 6" with the coastal plain being the big winner.

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=11&model_dd=22&model_init_hh=12&fhour=108&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

[mackerel_sky]

BL temps for wnc hoover around 32-34 degrees during the event. I like the chances for mby.

Y'all score either way, should be some NWFS also?

[burgertime]

yep this run is snow. 900-700mb temps are cold enough to induce some dynamical cooling at the sfc.

 

Yep this, going to be a big deal about how much moisture can shed west for everyone.

[BullCityWx]

yep this run is snow. 900-700mb temps are cold enough to induce some dynamical cooling at the sfc.

 

KHKY would start the event at 41/31. That is doable. 

[burgertime]

Definitely trended colder at the SFC this run. We're starting around 4C with this event as opposed to 6 or 7. 

 

The really good news is we got a few more days for this to play out. Anything is on the table. Will def. not be shocked as you said earlier for this to start trending colder.

[packbacker]

Yep this, going to be a big deal about how much moisture can shed west for everyone.

Let's face it, the farther west this tracks is better for you guys, not RDU, split the GFS and Euro is better for RDU. I have a feeling this trends a little stronger and ticks west as we get closer. Similar to Dec 09. Hopefully someone in the SE sees snow.

[Lookout]

Definitely trended colder at the SFC this run. We're starting around 4C with this event as opposed to 6 or 7. 

There must be a lot of dry air in the mid levels as 850s crash from 4c to below freezing without cold air advection but rather just off of evaporational cooling alone over ga with big drops over the carolinas as well. . Hell 850s go from +8c to below freezing in a few hours  as far south as the florida panhandle...that is some major and unusually high amount of evaporational cooling..so it must be very dry in the mid levels.  Of course that doesn't mean the surface will cool that much or that there is even a lot of dry air at the surface. BUT I have to wonder how deep/close to the surface that dry air is because if it is that dry down to just above the surface, say 950mb,  then this could look a lot better than one would think at first glance, especially over the carolinas.

[BullCityWx]

There must be a lot of dry air in the mid levels as 850s crash from 4c to below freezing without cold air advection but rather just off of evaporational cooling alone over ga with big drops over the carolinas as well. . Hell 850s go from +8c to below freezing in a few hours  as far south as the florida panhandle...that is some major and unusually high amount of evaporational cooling..so it must be very dry in the mid levels.  Of course that doesn't mean the surface will cool that much or that there is even a lot of dry air at the surface. BUT I have to wonder how deep/close to the surface that dry air is because if it is that dry down to just above the surface, say 950mb,  then this could look a lot better than one would think at first glance, especially over the carolinas.

 

yeah, this is where I really miss those old euro soundings on plymouth. I'm thinking there has to be some significant dewpoint depressions. 

[BullCityWx]

Actually, looking at last nights run, CLT started at 9C when the storm began. This run, we begin at 5C. That's a significant drop. 

[Hvward]

Y'all score either way, should be some NWFS also?

Yeah it looks like it Mac. Models never handle NWFS at this point in time but this could be a nice one for WNC.

[oconeexman]

Dynamic coolING could make this gem go POW!

Something to watch as others have eluded to dry mid levels.

[HKY_WX]

KHKY would start the event at 41/31. That is doable. 

Yea definitely. This could get interesting if we see a trend towards more of a phase. I'm heading home tuesday night for thanksgiving. would be awesome to track a snowstorm.

[franklin NCwx]

Here is hour 96 on today's euro. I would like to see the first wave slower or the 2nd piece faster or both. Hopefully we can see this on future runs. The euro is also the most amped as usual so huge caution.

[HKY_WX]

EURO would 6 - 8 inches in the boone area. Crazy to think about, the day b/f thanksgiving.

[HurricaneTracker]

EURO would 6 - 8 inches in the boone area. Crazy to think about, the day b/f thanksgiving.

Meanwhile, upgraded GFS shows nothing and the regular low-res GFS hinting at something but far less amounts. Plenty of model uncertainty at just 4-5 days out.

[GaWx]

A new thread was just created for 11/26 winter storm threat.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44948-t-day-eve-se-possible-winter-storm-112614/

[HKY_WX]

EQ Pac has really come a long way: 

 

[pcbjr]

GFS has NAO, AO and AAO all positive and PNA negative going into December.

 

[FallsLake]

GFS has NAO, AO and AAO all positive and PNA negative going into December.

 

Just like last year... only half joking. Last year the indices never really looked great but it was a great year. As others have said you definitely want them on your side but there's other things that can help provide cold and storms. 

[pcbjr]

Just like last year... only half joking. Last year the indices never really looked great but it was a great year. As others have said you definitely want them on your side but there's other things that can help provide cold and storms. 

 

God, let's hope so!

[FallsLake]

N. American snow cover and Hudson Bay ice is looking great for Nov 22. Hopefully we can get the Hudson total ice covered by early December. Most large lakes in Canada now frozen over.

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif

[packbacker]

Great write up...the GFS stratosphere past few runs are close to showing a split day 12+.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44944-my-winter-outlook-2014-15/#entry3138966

[pcbjr]

Ouch ....

 

 

 

[dsaur]

Heavy rolling thunder just now.  I'm pretty sure that means I'll get snow on the next big holiday...or maybe it's fog...I'm a bit foggy on that, lol.  Interesting month since Halloween, and more to come.  I love oddities in winter, not just the usual cold and dry, wet and warm. 

   Dang, that one shook the house.  Big boomers just to my south.  T