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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

LithiaWx

By LithiaWx,
in Southeastern States

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

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Posted

This is a met I quoted. He says Nino years have the marker of a warm December at times. I don't believe he is predicting that from this quote but something to consider. He also says warm Decembers can flip to a cold Jan-Feb in Nino years.

Yeah, I agree. I don't think that's too unusual in a Niño. I wonder this year, with everything else going on, if that progression will hold or if we'll see something else. It will be interesting to follow!

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

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An amazing winter forecast from the best met in Atlanta. Kirk Mellish

http://www.wsbradio.com/weblogs/kirk-mellishs-weather-commentary/2014/oct/30/winter-forecast-2014-15/

Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary

Posted: 9:11 a.m. Thursday, Oct. 30, 2014

And so it begins, autumn chill winter brush

October 29, 2014

Winter Outlook 2014-15 from NWS/NOAA

October 16, 2014

Watching sign posts for winter

October 3, 2014

We all know that predicting weather trends months in advance is a dicey situation. So while the accuracy has been scientifically verified as much better than a guess, it is nothing to brag about, as the success is marginal. But as the saying goes no guts no glory and nothing ventured nothing gained. We learn from failures as well as when we succeed. Last year's winter forecast turned out to be a good one.

It’s important to remember that a seasonal forecast is a BROAD ESTIMATE of how the season as a whole will trend and is not representative of specific week-to-week or month-to-month variations.

It’s like piecing together a puzzle, we look at clues from around the globe, from the air and oceans and the sun, and try to put the puzzle parts together that equal the forecast for the season using past history (analogs) and research papers as a guide.

The premise is what’s past is prologue. Nature does repeat but it does not repeat exactly. So we look for matches and from that project SIMILAR results, but remember similar does not mean the same.

Seasonal forecasting then is based upon:

The current observed state of the Atmosphere, Ocean, and sun.

The current and forecast sea surface temperature anomalies and patterns for both major oceans.

Signals from the Southern Hemisphere preceding cold season, i.e. our summer their winter.

Trying to determine which factors will be the DRIVERS or dominating force on the jet stream.

Soil moisture patterns from summer and autumn, which have been shown to help anchor ridges and troughs in following months.

How prevailing storm tracks tend to persist from autumn through winter to spring. So far this telegraphs Nor'easters and a secondary Pan handle hook storm track in winter along with Alberta Clippers.

The two things I use LEAST in my outlooks are the NOAA/NWS forecast and computer models.

Winters east of the Rockies over the last 5 years of 2011 and 2012 were on the warm side while 2009, 2010, and 2013-14 were cold.

Gulf of AK warm pools equate to a negative EPO +PNA and an active weak El Nino southern branch jet stream is expected thanks to split flow forced from tropics influence and high latitude blocking. This favors opportunities for both Miller A and Miller B low-pressure systems.

Predicting precipitation looks like the hardest part this winter, as the signals are conflicting between wet and dry for the Southeast.

The chill this winter looks to be more focused on the East Coast and Gulf Coast providing another memorable winter that is relatively chilly, but not without some mild spells.

The higher than normal risk for below normal readings looks maximized in January and February extending into March, but with the more prolonged arctic outbreak risk in January, eventhow the vaunted "January Thaw" can still interupt winter cold. Those wanting a balmy winter seem out of luck as I expect pieces of the polar vortex to break off from time to time and head south with its arctic air from time to time. The worst of winter comes after the Christmas shopping season.

Keep in mind this does NOT mean constant never ending cold for winter, but the December-March period should average below-normal on the thermometer. And even if total precipitation ends up being near-normal or below average, snow and ice can still be more than usual.

With plenty of cold and snow to seize the Northeast U.S., especially in January and February, a few wintry blasts will sock the South as a return of the polar vortex on one or more occasions is a distinct possibility.

Some cold shots will show up from the Midwest to the Northeast in late November and December, but the brunt of the season will hold off until January and February. The polar vortex, the culprit responsible for several bitter blasts last year, will slip down into the lower 48 East of the Missouri River from time to time, delivering blasts of arctic air. There is some concern that Old Man Winter may try to start as early as the month of December even in parts of Dixie, but that is speculative at best.

For Atlanta a couple significant winter precipitation events of ice and/or snow would be no surprise.

The so-called polar vortex is a large area of cold air high up in the atmosphere that normally lives over the poles as its name suggests but sometimes sloshes down into North America, helping to funnel cold air into the eastern U.S.

Last year the country set records for daily natural-gas consumption with cold temperatures in the biggest markets for heating demand unparalleled in 32 years, according to Commodity Weather Group, and we were days away from energy shortage and brown-outs or blackouts in parts of the upper Midwest and Northeast states.

Most consumers use natural gas or electricity, and the colder scenario would send their bills even higher than last year, by 2% to 6%. However, that could be conservative as this winter could well be MORE than 10% colder than NOAA expects. I expect above-normal energy demand.

Eurasia snowfall is off to a record fast start, which is historically a harbinger of cold winters as shown by research by Dr. Cohen of MIT. It does not guarantee it, but makes it more likely. The advance of the snow cover this year is close to 2012 and 2009, second at week 42 only to 1976 since measurement began in 1960 at 18.2 Mil/sq Km.

Warm pool in gulf of Alaska and off west coast suggests Alaskan ridge, which says east in fridge. Because warm AK gulf supports gulf trough, which supports a western NA ridge, which supports an eastern NA trough via Rossby Wave theory and teleconnection charts.

Weak El Nino and pools of warm and cool sea surface water in both Pacific and Atlantic Oceans along with QBO phase and solar cycles and Siberian snow cover favoring negative AO all suggest frequent blocking this winter for Eastern Canada/Greenland. Both the strength and location of El Nino is important in finding matching analogs. We see so far a West or central bias to El Nino and September saw the warmest North Pacific ever in the record books. This helps build a Western NA ridge, which eventually forces eastern NA troughs. Siberian snow cover advance and depth along with October AO trends also support cold more than warm. Summer precipitation and temp patterns in the USA were also similar to antecedent conditions to some past winters with below normal temps and/or above average snow in the Midwest or East. Autumn signs of sudden stratospheric warming also suggest the blocking for equator ward shifts of the polar vortex.

Late fall and early winter warmth give rise to a heightened concern for severe weather in November, with November temperatures expected to frequently be back and forth between above and below normal.

The SST with the central tropical Pacific warm pool and the warmth near the West Coast forms a formidable argument for the same kind of cold we saw last winter, but perhaps with even more snow in some areas. The “warmest” version I can conceive of for winter would translate to a fairly normal or average winter. In other words, the least likely outcome is a year without a winter.

Harsher than normal winter most areas east of MO River

Eurasia snowfall off to a record fast start, which is historically a harbinger of cold winters

IF it reaches its fullest potential, could be worse than last year.

DRIVERS CONSIDERED IN MAKING OUTLOOK:

ENSO (El Nino/La Nina) SST MEI SOI ONI MJO

Type of El Nino (location of warmest water)

Strength or weakness of warm water both Oceans

PDO cycle

AMO cycle

Expected AO

QBO Phase

Expected EPO/WPO

Summer US weather pattern

Autumn storm track pattern and reoccurring cycle

Solar Cycle (sunspots and geomagnetic output levels)

Expected PNA phase and TNH Phase

Expected NAO Phase

NP SST

Eurasia/Siberia snow cover Sept/Oct

OPI

Global volcanic eruptions current and past 3-5 years, which impact aerosols solar input and blocking

Global wind oscillation and AAM

Nature of hurricane season Pacific and Atlantic

The total analog list:

1918, 1926, 1951, 1952, 1957, 1958, 1960, 1963, 1965, 1966, 1968, 1969, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1985, 1986, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2013.

Best matches: 2002, 2009.

I do not really feel comfortable showing an outlook based on only two analog years, but I have no choice as these checked the most boxes. And even when I add other good matches, the maps generated did not change greatly in most parts of the country, so I'll roll the dice.

BOTTOM LINE FOR GEORGIA:

Below-normal temps on average

Above-normal precipitation

Above normal snowfall

Elevated ice storm risk

One or two disruptive winter storms Jan-March timeframe, probably no early spring

Higher than usual confidence in the outlook, especially regarding temperatures. FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER @MellishMeterWSB.

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

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Well Brick we've heard from every met out there with the exception of one, who might be the most famous of them all. I triple dog dare anyone to post his winter outlook on here if he puts one out. The Georgia boys refer to him as Mr Burns.

I'm all in now. Kirk is a great met. I take what he says about the weather very seriously. His forecast left me with my jaw dropping.

Also good news here, Mr. Burns is part of WSB like Kirk. I wouldn't be surprised if their forecasts are similar.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

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I've gotten the biggest kicks off lookouts rants about this guy (burns) over the years. You Google his name and there's a story about him being the most hated or under the skin weatherman out there. The comments below the article are hillarious. I beleive lookout would desert a remote mountain cabin with 10 blondes just to get to a computer so he could tear into a post with this guy's forecast on it.

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audioguy3107

audioguy3107

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I've gotten the biggest kicks off lookouts rants about this guy (burns) over the years. You Google his name and there's a story about him being the most hated or under the skin weatherman out there. The comments below the article are hillarious. I beleive lookout would desert a remote mountain cabin with 10 blondes just to get to a computer so he could tear into a post with this guy's forecast on it.

The thing about G. Burns is really that he just comes across as kind of a goof. He gets unusually excited, sometimes when there's not a good reason for it. A lot of viewers down here don't like his hyperbole, especially during severe weather. He goes crazy talking about the dang BTI tornado index.......if he was a met in Oklahoma he'd need medication.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

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Some cold night coming up. RAH thinks teens may be possible for many.

 

RAH from last night:

LOWS SAT MORNING WILL BE NEAR RECORDS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS
FINALLY STARTING TO CATCH UP TO WHAT THE HISTORY TELLS US SHOULD
OCCUR WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1280 METERS. IN FACT...FORECAST THICKNESSES
HAVE TRENDED LOWER YET...SO STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY STILL
BE PLAYING A GAME OF CATCH UP OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE TYPICALLY
COLDER SPOTS ARE APT TO DIP INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS...RANGING TO
AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE URBAN CENTERS OVER THE PIEDMONT...TO LOWER
TO MIDDLE 20S OVER THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
IN ADDITION...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT TROUGH AND CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE WESTERN GOM TO THE EAST
COAST...SUCH THAT MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE AND ALLOW
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING SAT NIGHT. LOWS HAVE
CONSEQUENTLY BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN ABOUT A CATEGORY...INTO THE MIDDLE
20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.
 

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Tacoma

Tacoma

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No one talking about the snow for the mtns. this weekend.  Must really look bad since there is no chatter.

Oh now I see I just read from the NWS there is the dreaded warm nose Sunday night, go figure.  Of course the cold air comes in behind the moisture.   :axe:   :bag:

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