Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

[HKY_WX]

Hard to imagine that not being a snow scenario, given the partial thicknesses. It is obviously November, so that throws a wrench in though. 

[griteater]

Impressive how the shortwave is digging way down into south Texas.  

 

Sounding text for Greensboro at hr96.  Looks close.  Either rain or rain/snow mix.  Sfc wet bulb is 36.5

 

[triadwx]

Surface is mid-30s. That's doable with heavy enough precip, but it won't accumulate well.

The cold is around though. Mid 30's @ hr 102 and by 108 most are in the upper 20's to near 30. This run is steps closer to the 00z Euro though. The 12z Euro should definitely be interesting.

[buckeyefan1]

I'd like to see that pesky low over the Lakes disappear. I *think* what would make that happen is if that trailing shortwave was faster. Then, high pressure could build in faster. That might also cause a sooner phase (if that trailing wave is faster). That's probably asking a lot though....

Me too     Anywho.....it's trending colder for those to my north and west   

[BullCityWx]

Impressive how the shortwave is digging way down into south Texas.  

 

Sounding text for Greensboro at hr96.  Looks close.  Either rain or rain/snow mix.  Sfc wet bulb is 36.5

 

 

HKY is about the same. 

[HKY_WX]

Me too     Anywho.....it's trending colder for those to my north and west  

Doubt you'll see much cad in this situation. it's more of a stalled out fropa and a stj disturbance. i think the idea of a weak low heading just off the coast and out to sea is pretty on point in this situation. only accumulation may be in the higher elevations(northern foothills/mtns) and into northern NC/VA. the only way to change that, would be if this trailing s/w were to phase enough to cutoff and generate stronger dynamics like we saw a few weeks ago in SC.

[packbacker]

You can see the difference between the 0z and 12z GFS runs, when the piece energy drops south and phases in we get a chance at a big storm, it's been going back and forth between staying north and ruining our cold air and weak storm out to sea or dropping down and cold air being there and nice winter storm potential...

 

 

[franklin NCwx]

Def trending better with digging the first wave. Would like to see the 2nd wave dive more due south than southeast for an earlier phase.

[BullCityWx]

KMRN has what would be a snow sounding at hour 96. 

[packbacker]

Impressive how the shortwave is digging way down into south Texas.  

 

Sounding text for Greensboro at hr96.  Looks close.  Either rain or rain/snow mix.  Sfc wet bulb is 36.5

 

 

 

I guess the heavier precip makes a difference...

[WidreMann]

Hard to imagine that not being a snow scenario, given the partial thicknesses. It is obviously November, so that throws a wrench in though.

Why? Sun angle isn't a concern as the sun angle is the same as in mid-January. Aside from that, temperatures work the same any time of year. 32 is 32 in November or February.

[WidreMann]

Anyone know what the parallel GFS is showing?

[BullCityWx]

I see the problem with this event being the colder areas are going to warm up if this thing pushes NW. That would hurt anyone outside the mountains, including the foothills and NW piedmont. 

[HKY_WX]

Why? Sun angle isn't a concern as the sun angle is the same as in mid-January. Aside from that, temperatures work the same any time of year. 32 is 32 in November or February.

True, sun angle isn't an issue. Climo isn't exactly on our side for anything other than some wet flakes. That said, it's a few days away and the setup will change. Hopefully more favorably. A week ago I made a post that something would likely pop up in this pattern during this range, so I'm not against a storm.

[Jon]

Anyone know what the parallel GFS is showing?

nothing. rain, not even close. weaker low at 1016mb way off the coast.

[packbacker]

nothing. rain, not even close. weaker low at 1016mb way off the coast.

 

CMC is a dramatic improvement over 0z run, has SLP about 50 miles east of GFS, has precip back to 95 in NC, 850's cold as GFS too.

[buckeyefan1]

Doubt you'll see much cad in this situation. it's more of a stalled out fropa and a stj disturbance. i think the idea of a weak low heading just off the coast and out to sea is pretty on point in this situation. only accumulation may be in the higher elevations(northern foothills/mtns) and into northern NC/VA. the only way to change that, would be if this trailing s/w were to phase enough to cutoff and generate stronger dynamics like we saw a few weeks ago in SC.

I'm just happy each run has increased the moisture around here, and it's just tricky enough for some to keep an eye on as we head into winter        

[Lookout]

Surface is mid-30s. That's doable with heavy enough precip, but it won't accumulate well.

Taken at face value, a change to snow before ending looks decent.  Taken literally, it probably wouldn't be too much in the way of accumulation as it happens as precip is moving out..However, it is extremely close to being something more...literally just 1c away in the low levels from something much more than just a dusting or so.

 

Here is the sounding for near rocky mount at hours 102 and 108. As you can see, at hour 102 it's extremely close to going over to all snow. in fact, with heavier precip rates it's a very real possibility it changes over by then. But at face value it's still mostly rain (just barely) or it's a mix. But by hour 108, it appears cold enough for mostly snow or a mix. Of course only a tenth or two falls in this area after hour 102 but if it changes over by then, some light accumulations look possible.  But if it changes over at around say hour 105, it's a bigger deal for sure.

 

At the very least, it's certainly worth keeping an eye on. Cold air is obviously mostly lacking but just based on these soundings, it would seem possible, if not probable, that flakes would fly before it ends over eastern/northeastern nc.

 

This has been a rather crazy november and this certainly fits the narrative of this month

PRES	HGHT	TEMP	DWPT	RELH	MIXR	DRCT	SKNT	TWTB	TVRT	THTA	THTE	THTV
1014.7	63	1.0	1.0	100	4.1	354	9	1.0	1.6	273.0	284.1	273.6
1000.0	180	1.1	1.1	100	4.1	1	16	1.1	1.7	274.2	285.6	274.9
975.0	384	1.0	-0.1	93	3.9	14	23	0.6	1.6	276.1	287.0	276.7
950.0	592	0.5	-0.5	93	3.9	21	23	0.1	1.1	277.6	288.5	278.3
925.0	807	0.2	-0.9	92	3.9	22	22	-0.2	0.9	279.6	290.5	280.2
900.0	1026	-1.0	-1.5	97	3.8	21	20	-1.2	-0.4	280.4	291.3	281.1
850.0	1480	-3.0	-3.3	98	3.5	33	16	-3.2	-2.5	282.9	293.1	283.5
800.0	1960	-3.8	-4.0	99	3.6	48	8	-3.9	-3.3	287.0	297.5	287.6
750.0	2470	-3.8	-3.9	99	3.8	230	8	-3.8	-3.1	292.5	303.9	293.1
700.0	3015	-3.8	-4.0	99	4.1	226	29	-3.9	-3.2	298.2	310.6	298.9
650.0	3599	-5.4	-5.6	99	3.9	214	40	-5.5	-4.8	302.7	314.8	

hour 108

GFS Text Sounding | 00 UTC Thu 27 Nov 2014 | Latitude: 36.0000 | Longitude: -78.0000
PRES	HGHT	TEMP	DWPT	RELH	MIXR	DRCT	SKNT	TWTB	TVRT	THTA	THTE	THTV
1013.8	63	0.5	0.4	99	3.9	347	8	0.4	1.1	272.5	283.2	273.2
1000.0	173	0.5	-0.1	96	3.8	355	14	0.2	1.1	273.6	284.1	274.2
975.0	376	0.2	-1.1	91	3.6	5	22	-0.3	0.7	275.3	285.3	275.9
950.0	584	0.1	-1.4	90	3.7	7	23	-0.5	0.7	277.2	287.5	277.8
925.0	798	-0.2	-1.8	89	3.6	4	22	-0.9	0.3	279.0	289.3	279.7
900.0	1017	-1.2	-2.7	90	3.5	358	21	-1.8	-0.7	280.2	290.2	280.8
850.0	1471	-3.3	-4.0	95	3.3	342	19	-3.6	-2.8	282.6	292.3	283.2
800.0	1949	-5.3	-5.6	98	3.2	323	19	-5.5	-4.8	285.4	294.6	286.0
750.0	2454	-7.2	-7.8	96	2.8	305	18	-7.4	-6.8	288.7	297.2	289.2
700.0	2988	-10.1	-10.3	99	2.5	286	15	-10.2	-9.8	291.2	298.8	

[BullCityWx]

^ If anyone is going to jackpot, it'll be Rocky Mount. Just ask Joel. 

[burgertime]

Euro has a few subtle changes from last night. Wave in the gulf looks a tad weaker. Need it to start turning in the next few frames. Out to 84. 

[franklin NCwx]

Gonna phase too late.

[packbacker]

Gonna phase too late.

 

Looks about the same as the 0z run.

[packbacker]

Per the highly questionable WB snow maps it's a little more snowy for NC.

 

 

[burgertime]

Euro wasn't as wet but still a good hit on the backside. At the start it looks to be a raging sleet storm or a very very cold rain. 

[HKY_WX]

Day 4 is interesting, looks poised to phase. Def something to watch

[BullCityWx]

Euro wasn't as wet but still a good hit on the backside. At the start it looks to be a raging sleet storm or a very very cold rain. 

 

Which is all we can ask for this time of year. 

 

I'll be interested to see if we're any colder at the SFC.

[Lookout]

Looks about the same as the 0z run.

Yep,..just a little slower and further west.  Depending on boundary layer conditions, euro continues to show that the threat of snow would be more to the west across central nc. (except the mountains of course where several inches fall). It also should be noted that at least the higher elevations in the mountains of north georgia would get a few inches also.

[burgertime]

Per the highly questionable WB snow maps it's a little more snowy for NC.

 

SV maps not nearly as generous. Has a little strip at the VA/NC border of like 2 inches. 

[BullCityWx]

I wouldnt be surprised at all to see it snow on Wednesday. I'd be highly surprised to see it stick. 

[packbacker]

SV maps not nearly as generous. Has a little strip at the VA/NC border of like 2 inches. 

 

Yeah SV really sticks to the BL temps to show accumulations.