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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

LithiaWx

By LithiaWx,
in Southeastern States

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

What's the formula for almost guaranteed winter storm, NAM + Euro support = good chance?

 

 I remember reading about this idea well before the NAM existed. At that time, it was called the "EE rule" because it was Euro and Eta. The NAM imo isn't worthy of this same rule. ;)

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

I remember reading about this idea well before the NAM existed. At that time, it was called the "EE rule" because it was Euro and Eta. The NAM imo isn't worthy of this same rule. ;)

Ok, thanks. What's at 177 hr on GFS? Should be a law on the board that one cannot say"x" looks interesting, without elaborating! :)
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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Fourth snowiest winter on record for MBY ....KBMX

 

12/1939-1/1940 at Atlanta: note how mild it was through 12/19 and how cold it was 12/29-1/31. This was pretty much the case for the entire SE. 1/1940 is still the coldest month in ATL since at least 1879. On 1/7, ATL got a severe ZR. Many other areas got a moderate to severe ZR. On 1/23 ATL airport got 8.3" of snow and downtown got 10.0". BHM also got 10.0". Much of the SE got bombarded including a whopping 14.0" at Greensboro!

 

1939-40 is one of my top analogs because it was a late starting Nino that was on the weak side that had a strong +PDO, strong -AO/-NAO, followed a warm Oct., and followed a chilly Nov. There are imo too many similarities to ignore using it as at least rough guidance as to how this winter may play out.

 

 

0404,09045102,1939,12,01,0.27, ,0, ,0, ,60, ,49, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1939,12,02,0, ,0, ,0, ,59, ,42, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1939,12,03,0, ,0, ,0, ,48, ,34, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1939,12,04,0, ,0, ,0, ,51, ,33, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1939,12,05,0, ,0, ,0, ,62, ,31, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1939,12,06,0, ,0, ,0, ,64, ,41, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1939,12,07,0, ,0, ,0, ,72, ,35, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1939,12,08,0, ,0, ,0, ,66, ,36, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1939,12,09,0, ,0, ,0, ,69, ,33, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1939,12,10,0,T,0, ,0, ,69, ,47, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1939,12,11,0, ,0, ,0, ,61, ,39, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1939,12,12,0, ,0, ,0, ,62, ,38, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1939,12,13,0.16, ,0, ,0, ,57, ,36, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1939,12,14,0, ,0, ,0, ,53, ,28, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1939,12,15,0, ,0, ,0, ,56, ,28, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1939,12,16,0,T,0, ,0, ,61, ,40, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1939,12,17,0, ,0, ,0, ,67, ,43, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1939,12,18,0, ,0, ,0, ,70, ,40, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1939,12,19,0.68, ,0, ,0, ,65, ,43, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1939,12,20,0.09, ,0, ,0, ,50, ,36, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1939,12,21,0, ,0, ,0, ,56, ,32, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1939,12,22,0, ,0, ,0, ,51, ,27, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1939,12,23,1.08, ,0, ,0, ,45, ,37, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1939,12,24,0,T,0, ,0, ,44, ,35, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1939,12,25,0, ,0, ,0, ,48, ,31, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1939,12,26,0.81, ,0, ,0, ,43, ,38, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1939,12,27,0.01, ,0, ,0, ,45, ,38, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1939,12,28,0, ,0, ,0, ,44, ,36, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1939,12,29,0,T,0,T,0, ,38, ,29, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1939,12,30,0, ,0, ,0, ,41, ,24, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1939,12,31,0,T,0, ,0, ,46, ,28, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1940,01,01,0,T,0,T,0,T,35, ,19, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1940,01,02,0, ,0, ,0, ,31, ,15, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1940,01,03,0, ,0, ,0, ,37, ,16, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1940,01,04,0.06, ,0, ,0, ,42, ,22, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1940,01,05,0.02, ,0,T,0, ,39, ,26, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1940,01,06,0, ,0, ,0, ,43, ,21, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1940,01,07,1.12, ,E,1, ,35, ,29, ,-99999,M,-99999,M   *major ZR from Miller A*

0404,09045102,1940,01,08,0,T,0, ,0,T,33, ,27, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1940,01,09,0, ,0, ,0,T,39, ,23, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1940,01,10,0, ,0, ,0, ,44, ,27, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1940,01,11,0.91, ,0, ,0, ,37, ,35, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1940,01,12,0.69, ,0, ,0, ,44, ,36, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1940,01,13,0.24, ,0, ,0, ,44, ,42, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1940,01,14,1.29, ,0, ,0, ,59, ,35, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1940,01,15,0, ,0, ,0, ,42, ,28, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1940,01,16,0, ,0, ,0, ,50, ,27, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1940,01,17,0, ,0, ,0, ,54, ,30, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1940,01,18,0, ,0, ,0, ,57, ,24, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1940,01,19,0,T,0,T,0, ,24, ,8, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1940,01,20,0, ,0, ,0, ,30, ,8, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1940,01,21,0, ,0, ,0, ,35, ,15, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1940,01,22,0,T,0, ,0, ,45, ,19, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1940,01,23,1.29, ,8.3, ,8, ,36, ,27, ,-99999,M,-99999,M  *big Miller A snow*

0404,09045102,1940,01,24,0,T,0,T,7, ,28, ,14, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1940,01,25,0,T,0,T,7, ,21, ,9, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1940,01,26,0, ,0, ,6, ,18, ,4, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1940,01,27,0, ,0, ,6, ,23, ,5, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1940,01,28,0, ,0, ,5, ,30, ,4, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1940,01,29,0, ,0, ,4, ,40, ,15, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1940,01,30,0, ,0, ,3, ,38, ,28, ,-99999,M,-99999,M

0404,09045102,1940,01,31,0, ,0, ,2, ,46, ,20, ,-99999,M,-99999,M  *still 2" on ground 1/31!!*

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deltadog03

deltadog03

Posted
Posted

"D’Aleo, now chief forecaster at WeatherBell Analytics, was one of the few meteorologists to accurately predict a colder-than-normal November.

He expects several major East Coast snowstorms and “widespread below-zero temperatures” that will plunge much of the nation into a deep freeze for as long as six weeks this winter.

 The worst of the frigid winter weather will likely hit right around Christmas and last until the first week of February,"

 

 http://cnsnews.com/news/article/barbara-hollingsworth/weather-channel-co-founder-predicting-snowier-bitterly-colder#.VG-9L7mpbCE.facebook

 

 This is all consistent with 1939-40 fwiw.

There are some VERY good minds over there at WeatherBell.  I could see that happening as well.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

I can tell from the free maps that it launches a coastal bomb that crushes someone. Is it just the Mid Atlantic and Northeast or does anyone in the SE get in on the fun.

(Not that it really matters, but inquiring minds want to know!) :D

James,

My Euro clown source gives you 2-3" fwiw. Even Brick gets 1-2". Thank goodness he appears to be asleep. He wouldn't be able to handle this excitement. ;)

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

850s are actually good here and over an inch of QPF falls.  However, the surface is warm, and the clown map strangely actually takes that into account.  As I said earlier in the banter thread, I don't think I've ever seen a major snowstorm get ruined by BL temperatures here, so I'd believe that when I saw it (if the Euro's scenario actually happened, which is very much in doubt).  That's quite a bomb off the coast.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

LOL, now I see.  I went ahead and bit the bullet and resubscribed to WeatherBell (was hoping to hold off until December, but it's only $19.99/month, so whatever).  Looks like the clown crushes DC.

Mine shows DC getting some obscenely high amount (especially for Nov.) of ~8-9". Is November the new winter?

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

Mine shows DC getting some obscenely high amount (especially for Nov.) of ~8-9". Is November the new winter?

 

Yup, same here.  Apparently, November and March are our best wintry months!! :lol:

 

We'll have to see if the Euro sticks with this in later runs.  We're not actually that far away from the event (if there is one) at this point.  Four days isn't that far out there.  Looks like it crushes all the big I-95 cities all the way into Maine, so Joe Bastardi is probably all in! ;)

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Wow Euro came in crazy wet for I-85 east in NC. It just looks to me like it starts out as a sleet monster for most and then ends as some snow. Those surface temps are fugly but the Euro keeps latching on we'll worry about those when it gets here. Euro EPS looks a lot better aloft would be more of a snow scenario for most. 

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BullCityWx

BullCityWx

Posted
Posted

Wow Euro came in crazy wet for I-85 east in NC. It just looks to me like it starts out as a sleet monster for most and then ends as some snow. Those surface temps are fugly but the Euro keeps latching on we'll worry about those when it gets here. Euro EPS looks a lot better aloft would be more of a snow scenario for most. 

 

I could see the euro getting cooler with cold air pouring in. 

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

I could see the euro getting cooler with cold air pouring in.

I'd like to see that pesky low over the Lakes disappear. I *think* what would make that happen is if that trailing shortwave was faster. Then, high pressure could build in faster. That might also cause a sooner phase (if that trailing wave is faster). That's probably asking a lot though....

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