Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

[metwannabe]

To Brick's point though, the oft warm pattern shown in the LR recently has yet to come to fruition. That said, yes, there is value in looking at the models and the ensembles.

I agree but given the MJO and the current forecast , I think a warm first week of December has legs. So maybe the LR warmth on the models has merit now

[LithiaWx]

To Brick's point though, the oft warm pattern shown in the LR recently has yet to come to fruition.  That said, yes, there is value in looking at the models and the ensembles.

 

I disagree slightly. I don't think the models have shown an extended warm pattern yet. The warm up we are having now is right on track as it has been for days now.  The cool shot portrayed by the models around Thanksgiving also has been locked in for days. 

 

Now the LR seems to be hinting at a warm ER pattern after Thanksgiving.  I still don't buy it yet but I also don't buy the oft thrown around warm not materializing like the models are showing line.  I don't think the models have show anything to date like that (starting to now imo)  and I also don't think anyone has actually said they think this will happen.  I will say after the last day's worth of model runs a warmer fist half of December is more likely than a colder one. JMO.

[Cold Rain]

I agree but given the MJO and the current forecast , I think a warm first week of December has legs. So maybe the LR warmth on the models has merit now

Yeah, maybe. I still expect it to be variable and average close to normal. Bouts of precipitation and the occasional high pressure scooting by to the north should ensure that. Unless we start to see a persistent trough west/ridge east pattern appearing inside of 7/8 days, I'm not going to worry too much about it.

[SnowNiner]

To Brick's point though, the oft warm pattern shown in the LR recently has yet to come to fruition.  That said, yes, there is value in looking at the models and the ensembles.

 

I hope it's right actually for early december...I'd like to go ahead and get the warm up out of the way so we can transition to our -AO/-NAO/-EPO/+PNA/Split flow regime by late december.  Hurry up and bring the warm!!

 

[Brick Tamland]

To Brick's point though, the oft warm pattern shown in the LR recently has yet to come to fruition.  That said, yes, there is value in looking at the models and the ensembles.

 

Yes, that is what I am talking about.

[packbacker]

Euro not quite going to do it, but better than 0z run. Never fully phases but is close.

[Cold Rain]

I disagree slightly. I don't think the models have shown an extended warm pattern yet. The warm up we are having now is right on track as it has been for days now.  The cool shot portrayed by the models around Thanksgiving also has been locked in for days. 

 

Now the LR seems to be hinting at a warm ER pattern after Thanksgiving.  I still don't buy it yet but I also don't buy the oft thrown around warm not materializing like the models are showing line.  I don't think the models have show anything to date like that (starting to now imo)  and I also don't think anyone has actually said they think this will happen.  I will say after the last day's worth of model runs a warmer fist half of December is more likely than a colder one. JMO.

The only way to empirically prove it is to go back and pick out and post 10 day maps for every day going back a couple of weeks...or something like that. The upcoming system has been well modeled for a while. But we've seen zonal flow and even a SE ridge showing up in the LR models from time to time. This has been going on for a while now. So far, we have had neither zonal flow nor a SE ridge. Maybe it'll work out this time. Maybe after the after T-Giving day cold blast, we turn zonal or even get a SE ridge.

The top map is the latest 0z Euro from this morning valid for 0z Friday 11/28. The bottom map is the 12z Euro run from 11/18 valid for 12z Friday 11/28. Slight difference. Just one example though. Guess we'll just have to agree to disagree slightly for now.

[griteater]

Good one, Grit!

 

Took me a minute to catch on with this....right, Brick has never actually seen model output, yet he knows that they are futile to look at past 7 days

[Cold Rain]

Even Wednesday the 19th at 12z the Euro was showing this:

So far, we haven't really seen this pattern. We'll have southerly flow and a warm up soon, but not really an extended ugly pattern that looks like this.

[Brick Tamland]

Took me a minute to catch on with this....right, Brick has never actually seen model output, yet he knows that they are futile to look at past 7 days

 

I know from reading on here that the models have been showing a warm up in the long range and then they back off a couple of days later. That is what I was referring to in saying looking at anything past 7 days has been futile because that keeps happening.

 

But I think I chose the wrong words. It's not really futile, but I doubt the warm ups they show 10 days out because they have not materialized yet.

[packbacker]

Such a odd Euro run, there was never a full phase, just missed, so you get back to back coastals. The 2nd coastal brings snow/mix to w-NC. It could have been huge with a full phase.

[LithiaWx]

Even Wednesday the 19th at 12z the Euro was showing this:

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_216.gif

So far, we haven't really seen this pattern. We'll have southerly flow and a warm up soon, but not really an extended ugly pattern that looks like this.

 

Yeah but the warmth has been showing up after Thanksgiving.  We haven't gotten to that period to see what happens yet.  My point was there hasn't been a warm extended pattern showing up on the models that hasn't verified.  We very well may end up with a SE ridge after T-day like you say or it may be cold. 

[South_MountainWX]

I dont trust any model past five days. But if history plays out and the low is still there in future runs climo will have it tick more northwest. I feel fairly comfortable sittin on the east slopes of the blue ridge. Question is can we get enough precp back our way.

[South_MountainWX]

I noticed another low sittin back in the ohio valley is there any chance it could converge with the low sittin off catteras an amplify Im just a wieenie tryin to learn thanks.

[Cold Rain]

Ladies and gentlemen, this is so close, but...juuuuust a bit outside.

[Brick Tamland]

Sounds like things are heading in the right direction but not quiet there yet.

[Cold Rain]

Boom (Burger said it was ok)!

[griteater]

Ladies and gentlemen, this is so close, but...juuuuust a bit outside.

 

It's worth keeping an eye on.  Shortwave drops down into an established eastern trough.  Both GFS's and the Euro have it...but it's gotta dig.

[LithiaWx]

We need to see that low deepen on future model runs so the low can throw moisture back into the cold sector. That would also pulls on some of the cold available to the north and west. After this timeframe the GFS goes dumpster fire for the first week of December. The low is weak and elongated on the OP GFS. I'd also take the para GFS with a boulder of salt. I haven't seen how well it verifies yet.

 

The new Euro tightens up the Low.  The clown maps could be interesting from this run.

[Cold Rain]

It's worth keeping an eye on.  Shortwave drops down into an established eastern trough.  Both GFS's and the Euro have it...but it's gotta dig.

Yeah, and I have no idea about surface temps, but the 850s look great.

[GaWx]

The new Euro tightens up the Low.  The clown maps could be interesting from this run.

 

My source's clown map has 1-3" NE NC (within 100 miles of the coast) and then similar amounts up into the MidAtlantic coast.

[LithiaWx]

My source's clown map has 1-3" NE NC (within 100 miles of the coast) and then similar amounts up into the MidAtlantic coast.

 

Thank you sir.  I guess BL temps are an issue because the 850's are wicked cold.

[tnweathernut]

The new Euro tightens up the Low.  The clown maps could be interesting from this run.

Looks like a little strip of 1-2 inch snows through southern TN and into the mountains.  Larger amounts in parts of western VA (2-7 fairly widespread), and 1-3ish in the northeast part of NC.  Accumulations look to be mostly east of 95 and north of 264

[Hvward]

Euro was very close.. Partial phase and brings snow showers to wnc. PGV jackpot of course per weatherbell clown map.

[packbacker]

There are a few   runs like this, several have light snow too.  

 

 

[superjames1992]

Well, the Euro has done a complete 180 on the LR pattern. It may be the King, but it isn't perfect!

[Brick Tamland]

Wow, looks like we might have something to watch for real.

[buckeyefan1]

Well, the Euro has done a complete 180 on the LR pattern. It may be the King, but it isn't perfect!

The devil is always in the details      

[packbacker]

Well, the Euro has done a complete 180 on the LR pattern. It may be the King, but it isn't perfect!

 

The Euro ENS 11-15 day are needless to warm, very warm, but atleast by the end of the run you can start to see a hint of a -NAO develop.  But since models suck past 11 days I don't believe it.

[griteater]

12z Euro Ensemble...

 

Post Turkey Day weekend, Euro Ens is locked in on a warming trend for the entire U.S.  Same ideas as yesterday - big Bering Strait ridge and trough extending from Alaska to off the west coast...weak ridging extending across the U.S.  Warmest 850mb anomalies are centered from the Rockies to the Great Lakes.  SE is only slightly above normal, but more importantly, it's a pattern that is no good for wintry precip.