Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

[pcbjr]

Go Ensemble Go! - Regular GFS 18z is pretty much up 5 -10º for 2m surface temps overall across the whole run from the 12z in this neck of the woods

[burgertime]

00z Euro was again very close for popping something big on Wed. Might want to keep an eye on that. Low pops up just off of Hatteras. Sends light moisture across much of NC. 2m temps aren't there but 850's are. 

[LithiaWx]

6Z GFS was a dumpster fire in the medium to long range.  The Thanksgiving cold was also moderated compared to previous runs.

[mackerel_sky]

6Z GFS was a dumpster fire in the medium to long range. The Thanksgiving cold was also moderated compared to previous runs.

Seems like a waste of time to look at models more than three days out!! Too many variables!

Hell, I hope I'm still getting rain Sunday !??

[Brick Tamland]

00z Euro was again very close for popping something big on Wed. Might want to keep an eye on that. Low pops up just off of Hatteras. Sends light moisture across much of NC. 2m temps aren't there but 850's are. 

 

 

6Z GFS was a dumpster fire in the medium to long range.  The Thanksgiving cold was also moderated compared to previous runs.

 

 

As the models turn. Maybe even 5 days out is too much to count on.

[packbacker]

The Euro solution is interesting, the EE is just a smidge east of the Op.

 

 

 

 

[Cold Rain]

What, no west coast cool bubbles on the map today, Pack?

[packbacker]

What, no west coast cool bubbles on the map today, Pack?

 

HAH....It's still there, I am choosing to ignore it :-)

 

I had a very optimistic post in the MA thread.

[packbacker]

What, no west coast cool bubbles on the map today, Pack?

 

This would be a lot more interesting if this was past mid-Dec...1040+ HP building over the lakes, it's almost negative....

[packbacker]

Para goes nuts, you would think there would be a good chance everything west of the 540 line could be snow/mix, time of day stinks, needs to occur 6 hours later.

 

 

 

[packbacker]

Para goes nuts, you would think there would be a good chance everything west of the 540 line could be snow/mix, time of day stinks, needs to occur 6 hours later.

 

 

[packbacker]

Snow map.

[packbacker]

That's an impressive east coast winter storm on the para...

 

 

[griteater]

Both GFS and GFS Para have a clipper for TN/NC on Thanksgiving Day...would be cold with mtn snows at least.

[superjames1992]

Para goes nuts, you would think there would be a good chance everything west of the 540 line could be snow/mix, time of day stinks, needs to occur 6 hours later.

 

 

 

I'm a weenie, but I'd take my chances with a track like that, especially out this way.  In any case, there's still plenty of time for fine tune the track and for the timing to change (so its at night).  Hell, it will probably be totally different at 18z, anyways! 

[mackerel_sky]

Need to back that up about 100 miles!

[packbacker]

Surprisingly the GEFS is much further west with precip than the Op.  Must have some beast members in there.

[LithiaWx]

We need to see that low deepen on future model runs so the low can throw moisture back into the cold sector. That would also pulls on some of the cold available to the north and west. After this timeframe the GFS goes dumpster fire for the first week of December. The low is weak and elongated on the OP GFS. I'd also take the para GFS with a boulder of salt. I haven't seen how well it verifies yet.

[metwannabe]

We need to see that low deepen on future model runs so the low can throw moisture back into the cold sector. That would also pulls on some of the cold available to the north and west. After this timeframe the GFS goes dumpster fire for the first week of December. The low is weak and elongated on the OP GFS. I'd also take the para GFS with a boulder of salt. I haven't seen how well it verifies yet.

The upgrade has sucked so far it flips more than the regular

[Brick Tamland]

Need to back that up about 100 miles!

 

 

Surprisingly the GEFS is much further west with precip than the Op.  Must have some beast members in there.

 

 

Wouldn't be surprised if it is further west.

[Brick Tamland]

We need to see that low deepen on future model runs so the low can throw moisture back into the cold sector. That would also pulls on some of the cold available to the north and west. After this timeframe the GFS goes dumpster fire for the first week of December. The low is weak and elongated on the OP GFS. I'd also take the para GFS with a boulder of salt. I haven't seen how well it verifies yet.

 

 

Looking at anything on the models past 7 days is futile.

[Southern Apps.]

DT not super excited due to lack of blocking, but something to watch none the less.

 

https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk

[metalicwx366]

Wouldn't be surprised if it is further west.

Why do you think that? Do you have any reasoning as to why it may be further west?

[griteater]

Looking at anything on the models past 7 days is futile.

 

Brick - a lot can be gleaned from looking at how the large scale features are evolving (troughs, ridges) on models & model ensembles out past 7 days...not futile

[FallsLake]

12 GFS does have light precip over much of NC with 850 temps below freezing for late Thanksgiving into Black Friday:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_156_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=156&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141121+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=85

 

Would be nice to see some snow showers to start the Christmas season.

[LithiaWx]

Looking at anything on the models past 7 days is futile.

 

We agree to disagree Brick.  Models have value past 7 days imo, lots of value.

[packfan98]

12 GFS does have light precip over much of NC with 850 temps below freezing for late Thanksgiving into Black Friday:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_156_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=156&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141121+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=85

 

Would be nice to see some snow showers to start the Christmas season.

 

Those are some cold 850 temps!

[Cold Rain]

Brick - a lot can be gleaned from looking at how the large scale features are evolving (troughs, ridges) on models & model ensembles out past 7 days...not futile

Good one, Grit!

[FallsLake]

Those are some cold 850 temps!

As people have discussed, it's amazing how the cold keeps winning out. This is going to be another notable cold shot. There are warm-ups but their staying power is always diminished.

[Cold Rain]

To Brick's point though, the oft warm pattern shown in the LR recently has yet to come to fruition.  That said, yes, there is value in looking at the models and the ensembles.