Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

[mackerel_sky]

Things are lining up nicely. The fuse is being lit now. Just have to be patient and wait for the fireworks to go off.

Or for something to take a dump on the fuse and put it out!

[packbacker]

 ….let's hope this doesn't continue to develop.

 

 

 

 

 

[packfan98]

 ….let's hope this doesn't continue to develop.

 

Dude, did you draw that in with MS Paint?  That's a crazy looking cold dot in the middle of all of that warm water!  I hope that the warm will pac-man that little dot.

[franklin NCwx]

….let's hope this doesn't continue to develop.

lol

[packbacker]

Dude, did you draw that in with MS Paint?  That's a crazy looking cold dot in the middle of all of that warm water!  I hope that the warm will pac-man that little dot.

LOL, I wish it was MS paint, but unfortunately not, it does look odd, hopefully just a hiccup.  But if you look at the changes over the last 7 days it's showing up and showing up with a vengeance...

 

[Cold Rain]

Check out that warm pool developing around Greenland. That's what I'm talking about!

[packbacker]

Check out that warm pool developing around Greenland. That's what I'm talking about!

 

So we assume we want the intense warming around Greenland for our -NAO?

 

[Cold Rain]

Pack, I think warming in that area would help. Just eyeballing it, the warming near Greenland looks more robust than the cooling out west. I can't believe you found a spot of cool water. That is funny.

[griteater]

Pack, I think warming in that area would help. Just eyeballing it, the warming near Greenland looks more robust than the cooling out west. I can't believe you found a spot of cool water. That is funny.

 

I'm concerned about Packbacker's mental health this winter

[Cold Rain]

I'm concerned about Packbacker's mental health this winter

Man I don't know if he's gonna make it.

[mackerel_sky]

Did the 6z look like butthole? Haven't heard the first comment on it?

[LithiaWx]

Did the 6z look like butthole? Haven't heard the first comment on it?

 

For Atlanta the 6Z GFS looks meh. slow warm up between now and mid-next week.  Cold shot that moves in and out then another slow warm up from there.

[GaStorm]

For Atlanta the 6Z GFS looks meh. slow warm up between now and mid-next week.  Cold shot that moves in and out then another slow warm up from there.

Seems like last year at this time was like that. Can't wait until a good period of blocking finally shows up.

[dsaur]

It's very possible that the coldest weather all fall/winter could occur in November. My low was 16 this morning and some winters I don't even get that cold.

Yeah, but it's equally possible that that 16 is one of the warmer cold lows this winter   You just can't predict the winter based on Nov, climo not withstanding.  Katla could blow it's top, sending ash clouds over us, or the lizard/alien folks could hack the harrp derainalyzers over near you, and make it snow all winter. Nothing is written.  We just have to live it.  Surely things do incline toward this, or that, as Larry has pointedly shown us, and Robert is also on board with colder coming, and I for one, would never guess against those two.  In fact it's those two that draw me here winter after winter, because if you want a hint as to what might be coming, that are no better hinters, for our little piece of the world, anyway, lol.  Tbone

[packbacker]

I'm concerned about Packbacker's mental health this winter

 

 

Man I don't know if he's gonna make it.

 

It's going to be a lonngggg winter  

[El Kabong]

Yeah, but it's equally possible that that 16 is one of the warmer cold lows this winter   You just can't predict the winter based on Nov, climo not withstanding.  Katla could blow it's top, sending ash clouds over us, or the lizard/alien folks could hack the harrp derainalyzers over near you, and make it snow all winter. Nothing is written.  We just have to live it.  Surely things do incline toward this, or that, as Larry has pointedly shown us, and Robert is also on board with colder coming, and I for one, would never guess against those two.  In fact it's those two that draw me here winter after winter, because if you want a hint as to what might be coming, that are no better hinters, for our little piece of the world, anyway, lol.  Tbone

No doubt about it.  Any newcomers to the SE forum would be wise to pay close attention when Robert and Larry start honking!  Even though neither is infallible when it comes to forecasting, they are the closest things to weather prophets that we have.  When you combine Larry's historical data with Robert's synoptic analysis, it's as close as we're going to get to a sure thing (or a slam dunk, if you prefer a sports analogy).

[burgertime]

Euros is saying, "what warm up?" for the first part of December. Major cold front hitting the east after hour 200. 

[burgertime]

Looks like a +PNA in the LR on the Euro. Big cold front dropping in might be a good setup. Let's see if it totally disappears at 00z or on the ENS. 

[LithiaWx]

Euros is saying, "what warm up?" for the first part of December. Major cold front hitting the east after hour 200. 

 

The Euro isn't warm I agree.  These cold shots are really cold, even if they don't hold.

[burgertime]

The Euro isn't warm I agree.  These cold shots are really cold, even if they don't hold.

 

The big question is will that look just be gone in 12 hours. The LR models are out of control lately. 

[burgertime]

The Euro isn't warm I agree.  These cold shots are really cold, even if they don't hold.

 

Looking at the end of the Euro is a classic winter cold look. Major cold in eastern Canada just dumping into the NE. I like that look. 

[tnweathernut]

Euro didn't look bad AT ALL in the long range.  There is just not much consistency.  If I were forecasting longer range stuff I'd lean heavily on the ensembles and probably shade my forecast slightly colder as that seems to be the running way to hedge your bets.

[LithiaWx]

Looking at the end of the Euro is a classic winter cold look. Major cold in eastern Canada just dumping into the NE. I like that look. 

 

Yep. Very cold.

 

[nflwxman]

The Euro op is "thread the needle" weird on the last wave riding a front around 216.  However, the Operational seems to be trending colder and delaying any major pattern reshuffle ala the Xbox GFS.  The EPS this morning was much cooler than the op in the LR, so this is not terribly surprising.

[Brick Tamland]

Euro looks good for now. Model runs keep changing, but seems the overall theme is to bring back the cold.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

If i'm reading the maps right, it looks like the bulk of the cold will be on the east coast as opposed to the deep south (GA,AL,MS). 

[pcbjr]

If i'm reading the maps right, it looks like the bulk of the cold will be on the east coast as opposed to the deep south (GA,AL,MS). 

  You forgot me!!!!

 

I consider myself deep south (Florida doesn't start until Ocala)

[SnowNiner]

Looking at the end of the Euro is a classic winter cold look. Major cold in eastern Canada just dumping into the NE. I like that look. 

 

Looks good, and cold that's for sure.  Though I don't know if I can handle watching all these cutters march by to our NW for the next 4 months.  Hopefully that pumped up Scandanavian Ridge morphs and gives us some blocking in the next 2-4 weeks. 

[griteater]

12z Euro Ensemble...

 

Other than Sun/Mon, the remaining days to close out the month are below normal in the SE (to varying degrees).  

 

Euro and GFS Ensemble both transition into Dec with Bering Strait ridge, troughing off U.S. west coast, and general ridging across the country.....temps warmer than normal over much of the U.S., though centered more over the Rockies and upper midwest.

[oconeexman]

12z Euro Ensemble...

Other than Sun/Mon, the remaining days to close out the month are below normal in the SE (to varying degrees).

Euro and GFS Ensemble both transition into Dec with Bering Strait ridge, troughing off U.S. west coast, and general ridging across the country.....temps warmer than normal over much of the U.S., though centered more over the Rockies and upper midwest.

Thx grit for the ensemble analysis!

Doesn't sound too gloomy to me.