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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

LithiaWx

By LithiaWx,
in Southeastern States

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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
Posted

Just from a pure Nino perspective we do better with moderate Nino's, so if we stay

above 1 then it's going to be a roof collapsing winter.     :weenie:

 

But, no models show 3.4 staying above 1 so.... :bag:

Hey,

 

Just for educational purposes:

 

1) where is ideal 3.4 (how far above 1)?

 

and

 

2) what's the best link to look at to check in on it from time to time?

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

The article seems to indicate that the warming won't start until at least he first week of December. If I'm correct I rememebr there being a lag between the warming and the splitting of the PV. It's a rather long lag I believe and the warming doesn't guarantee a split unless it's a very aggressive warming, That said we want this on our side and it appears everything regarding the stratosphere is lining up. That said we don't have to have a SSW event to have a great winter either,

 

 I'd like to comment on Marietta's last statement. I couldn't agree with it more. Whereas I don't think there's much doubt that a strong SSW tends to lead to a more -AO at some point afterward, it is far from necessary to have it for even a very -AO. Here's why:

 

1. I looked in this table for sub -2 AO months:

 

 http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

 

2. Next, I went to here to look for SSW's that were either within that month or within two months prior to it:

 

 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/

 

3. Results:

 

- 1/1980: -2.066;  no SSW found

- 1/1985:-2.806;  SSW found

- 2/1986: -2.904;  SSW found in 1/1986

- 2/1995: -2.127; no SSW found

- 1/1998: -2.081; SSW found in late 12/1997

- 12/2000: -2.354; SSW found

- 12/2005: -2.104; no SSW found

- 12/2009: -3.413; no SSW found

- 1/2010: -2.587; no SSW found til late January, which would be too late to affect most of the month

- 2/2010: -4.266; SSW found in late January 2010

-12/2010: -2.631; no SSW found

- 3/2013: -3.185; SSW found in early January (I guess that is recent enough to possibly be related)

 

Summary: For the 12 mos. with sub -2 AO, I found SSW's for only 6 (50%) that could have been a contributing cause of the very -AO.

 

Conclusion: Although it helps, a recent SSW is not even close to being necessary for a very strong -AO month since only half of the ones since 1979 had one that could possibly be attributed to it.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Hey,

 

Just for educational purposes:

 

1) where is ideal 3.4 (how far above 1)?

 

and

 

2) what's the best link to look at to check in on it from time to time?

 

1)  Well if you simply look at Nino's between 0.5-1, RDU averages 5" over those 11 seasons (DJF), so 70% of climo.  For Nino's over 1 (mod/strong) RDU averages almost 9" of snow over those 11 seasons, so 120% of climo.  Note, I only looked at the DJF reading to distinguish between weak/moderate-strong.  My uneducated guess would be something between 1.1-1.8, anything over that you run the risk of Nino flooding the US with warm air.  Although, 1983 was a strong Nino (2.2) and we got 11.8" of snow.  Note, this doesn't take into account PDO/AO/NAO, just simply what happened in weak ninos and mod/strong ninos.

 

2)  I like this site...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean.html

 

And, this is all from central NC perspective, but I do believe the mid-atlantic does better with moderate nino's.  I also seriously doubt we consistently stay above 1 the next 3 months, nobody is calling for that.

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JoshM

JoshM

Posted
Posted

A Ranlo special!?

 

Odd how Gastonia can get 8, Dallas 14 and York, SC 10. It was 1880 afterall, who knows how and where exactly the measurements were taken. I can understand if York was lower than Gastonia, then the further north (towards Hickory) and Northeast (towards the triad) you go it would get higher. :unsure:

 

I don't know what I was doing that day... must have been waiting for burger to give the play by play on the telegraph.

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

For those of you who don't know the area, Ranlo is a small mill town east of Gastonia just off of 85 on hwy 7

Who doesn't know this area, lol! I grew up for 20 years near S New hope rd and Lowell Bethesda rd, the Kings Grant neighborhood , if your really familiar with the area!

Heard speak of the 18z had a cold stormy look to it!?

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Superjames,

 I couldn't find any flurries at Raleigh on 5/2/1940 per this:

 

 http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-5EA2274C-1464-49B6-A32C-1D1FF3F8154F.pdf

 

However, Raleigh did get a lot of snow in 1939-40: 13.7"! The last snow was on 3/24/40.

 

1939-40, a leading ENSO analog for 2014-5 based on it also being a late starter weakish but warming Nino for the winter with a warm Oct. and cold Nov., produced total SN/IP that was quite heavy (all way above normal %wise) through much of the well inland SE, making this one of the great SE winters.

 

1939-40 SN/IP totals:

Greensboro: 19.8"

Knoxville 19.7"

Asheville 19.1"

Raleigh  13.7"

Chattanooga: 13.4"

Charlotte 11.6"

Nashville 11.2"

Birmingham: 10.0"

Greenville 9.9"

Memphis 8.5"

Atlanta 8.3" plus a major ZR at least at KATL; most other CAD areas got at least some ZR, too

Vicksburg 8.0"

Meridian 5.7"

Macon 3.2"

 

 Regarding 1939-40, I just read that zwyts (Matt) in the MidAtlantic forum is also using it as one of his primary analogs. That is significant to me because we made this decision independently and I respect his analytical abilities very much. Based on the SN totals listed above, there would be a lot of very happy campers in this forum if something similar occurs in 2014-5.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

Just from a pure Nino perspective we do better with moderate Nino's, so if we stay

above 1 then it's going to be a roof collapsing winter.     :weenie:

 

But, no models show 3.4 staying above 1 so.... :bag:

We do better with weak ones. Only west based moderate ones. A moderate east based will spank you with the pac jet 75% of the winter.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

November 2014

Greensboro is runing a -5.7 departure for the month, Raleigh is - 5.3

This doesn't even take into account today's like -12 or whatever it turns out to be .

Out of 18 days both have had a - departure 14 times. That's almost unheard of folks.

Slice it however you want to but for me this season could be remebered for alot of things when all is said and done. But one of them will be how early and remarkable winter started a full month ahead of climo schedule.

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Snowless in Carrollton

Snowless in Carrollton

Posted
Posted

November 2014

Greensboro is runing a -5.7 departure for the month, Raleigh is - 5.3

This doesn't even take into account today's like -12 or whatever it turns out to be .

Out of 18 days both have had a - departure 14 times. That's almost unheard of folks.

Slice it however you want to but for me this season could be remebered for alot of things when all is said and done. But one of them will be how early and remarkable winter started a full month ahead of climo schedule.

It's very possible that the coldest weather all fall/winter could occur in November. My low was 16 this morning and some winters I don't even get that cold.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

For me it was just the general look of the pattern. It does have moisture coming in with enough cold in place to produce something wintry in the LR.

Good post. We're both outside good snow climo time but there is an unusual amount of cold air intrusions happening. Flow is progressive so timing something is the only shot. A big synoptic system would almost certainly be rain without real blocking for both of our yards. But a weak little wave or digging vort that can tap some moisture could toss a 4 leaf white clover.

I think similar to your post. Progressive flow only keeps mid level temps favorable for 2-3 days after each fropa tops. Even with the odds being stacked against, every passage carries a chance at timing something small but interesting. Nailing shortwaves beyond just 4 days on op runs is tough. 7 days in advance is impossible. A period of casual interest is on the table for the next 10 days. Maybe longer if things don't break down

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CherokeeGA

CherokeeGA

Posted
Posted

Cherokee,

 Thanks and you're welcome! Great points. The harsh criticism from some of how ATL handled the 2-3" that paralyzed it last Jan. was overdone imo. It was the first time there was that much snow during the middle of a work day and with it being that cold since snowjam of 1982! They just don't have the equipment to handle these rare situations. Due to the infrequency of similar events (only once every few decades for several inches with that kind of timing and with it initially that cold), they should keep the budget for plows, etc, reasonably low imo. OTOH, there should have been more people not even going to work and school in the first place. I told my sis to keep her kids at home and she did. The NWS already had warned the public. It was largely ignored. Admittedly, it did come in more quickly than most had expected (just like snowjam 1982).

 

Yes this is what I was referring to, regarding the relatively short-term lengths of service most people have in their jobs as compared to the frequency of the storms, and as you highlight it's even more rare that one of these things rolls in during the daylight hours (most of the time it takes the night-time cold for us to get snow, it seems like).  So very few of the school superintendents, politicians, or the managers in private business either, had the experience listening to the NWS to make the right calls and tell their students and employees to stay home.

 

I will say this, most corporate employers I have worked for here default to what the schools are doing.  If school is open, you are expected to be at work, period.  Only if your kids are out is it okay to work from home, and even if the schools are closed, some employers try to stay open and say it's optional to come in.  But if you have kids home, you can use that to keep yourself off the roads, at least.  So basically, if the school supers make the wrong call like they did last winter, everyone goes to school and work and what happened, happens.

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Good post. We're both outside good snow climo time but there is an unusual amount of cold air intrusions happening. Flow is progressive so timing something is the only shot. A big synoptic system would almost certainly be rain without real blocking for both of our yards. But a weak little wave or digging vort that can tap some moisture could toss a 4 leaf white clover.

I think similar to your post. Progressive flow only keeps mid level temps favorable for 2-3 days after each fropa tops. Even with the odds being stacked against, every passage carries a chance at timing something small but interesting. Nailing shortwaves beyond just 4 days on op runs is tough. 7 days in advance is impossible. A period of casual interest is on the table for the next 10 days. Maybe longer if things don't break down

 

Yea would def. be more of a "sneaky" type event that favors a 48-72 hour window before it really shows up on models (would be my guess anyways). For the south especially that's all you can ask for right now. Even talking about chances this early is something in its self. Looking at the 00z GFS parallel it shows the potential for the south, some energy digs into Texas @120ish but just can't really get it's act together once it makes it to the east. I can see something like that popping up in this sort of pattern for sure. 

As for a warm December just look at the last frame of the 00z Euro. Major cold air spilling into the midwest heading straight for the east. Starting to really believe first half of Dec. is going to below normal. 

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

0z Euro has a nice looking snowstorm day 9-10 for central US to OV, it's been ticking east the past couple of runs, and now has it tracking through west-TN.  At this range wouldn't be surprised if this keeps ticking east some, maybe the mountains could get on this down the road.  Although, none of the other models have this storm, but it is the Euro and it's had it for a few runs now.

 

ecmwf_mslpa_us_10.png

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

I agree with most on here, the LR can not be trusted on any models right now.  I forgot who said it, but the long range showing warm ups are not really doing that now.  It does remind me of last winter so far.  I think a little colder now, vs this time last year.

 

I have mentioned that a couple of times. 

 

:whistle:

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packfan98

packfan98

Posted
Posted

-Looks like both the SSW and ENSO are lining up perfectly.  

-Good stuff in the New England forum about the SSW and also the projection by some mets about an ample amount of blocking this winter (thanks CR for the heads up).

-Analogs are pointing to historic winters.

-Snow cover to our north is well established.

-We already see a pattern that is wetter and colder being established.

 

Now we just wait for Lucy to pull the football away at the last second!

 

 

Daily values of ENSO regions 3,3.4,4 now in the +1 to +1.25C anomaly range, region 1.2 just fell slightly below.

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