Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

[LithiaWx]

I do, but it just seems your posts are almost always in a negative tone. And we don't even know for sure what the next two weeks will end up like. Not looking for a snow storm, but others have said the models might not be seeing the pattern right, and this warm up will be brief. 

 

And you seem to have snow colored glass on all of the time regardless of what anything says.  I manage to deal with that just fine.  You should try and not let what you view as my pessimistic posts to bother you so much.  There is also an ignore feature you can use if you can't manage.

[tnweathernut]

I do, but it just seems your posts are almost always in a negative tone. And we don't even know for sure what the next two weeks will end up like. Not looking for a snow storm, but others have said the models might not be seeing the pattern right, and this warm up will be brief. 

It's ok to have a devils advocate point of view on the board.  It keeps things grounded IMO.  We have models that are pointing to a warmish period late November into early December and we have some mets not putting much stock into what the models are portraying (i.e. JB, Robert, DT) and saying they think the cold comes back sooner than later.  It's all just weather discussion on a weather board.  My opinion is if you don't like what someone is saying, simply ignore it. It really shouldn't affect your blood pressure either way.

[MichaelJ]

Pack,

 Who cares about a big +NAO on 11/28? Does that mean we're going to have a warm winter? If so, please show me the data. By the way, November of 1939, a great analog for 2014, had a monthlong big +NAO. Then DJF went strongly -NAO/-AO and the rest was history.

Exactly, the jet is still in it's seasonal transient pattern and will likely not lock into the true winter pattern until around the winter solstice. A +NAO in November is pretty meaningless and it really comes into play more influentially late in the Jan-March period for the SE. Right now it just signifies the progressiveness of the pattern which will settle in late December most likely. Everyone should relax because it is not even Thanksgiving yet and the current makeup of the indices still seem favorable for us in the longer range, especially when added to the weak El Nino, low Solar, and the SST profiles in the Pacific. There are no guarantees in weather but I like the current odds for a nice eventful winter for the Eastern US

[packbacker]

It's ok to have a devils advocate point of view on the board.  It keeps things grounded IMO.  We have models that are pointing to a warmish period late November into early December and we have some mets not putting much stock into what the models are portraying (i.e. JB, Robert, DT) and saying they think the cold comes back sooner than later.  It's all just weather discussion on a weather board.  My opinion is if you don't like what someone is saying, simply ignore it. It really shouldn't affect your blood pressure either way.

 

Well said…there should be optimism for a cold/snowy stretches for winter in the SE in Jan/Feb.  But, I don't see anything wrong with talking about the warm stretches that are coming up in the 5-15 day period.  After today we all may want some temps in the 60's again.

[El Kabong]

Is that one of those psychedelic mandrills, or some nondescript gray primate?  Makes a difference in long range predictions, and I'm not surprising anyone in saying how the long ranges haven't exactly sizzled.  Thing I always feel is that winter weather can come any time it's cold, and raining, it doesn't choose months, or ground temps, of sun angles.  If it wants to snow, it just snows, no matter what a model, or monkey butt says about it....but, that said, a mandrill with those vivid stripes would presage more than some some run of the mill primate would.  Tbone

I've seen a 5 inch snow in Rome, Georgia in April and 18" in March of '93 just a few days after temps were in the 70's.  If the right ingredients get put into the oven, a snow cake will be the end result regardless of the month.  Of course, Tony would rather have sleet pie!

 

A great reminder and written in a way that only Tony can pull off.  While Larry is most certainly the resident sage of the SE forum, Tony would likely win in a landslide for "most unique way of stating things."  Could a book of "Tony-isms" be too far off?  The GaWx/dsaur combo certainly makes the SE forum the best!

[Lookout]

Alright, I think both sides have made their point. Time to drop it.

[dsaur]

I've seen a 5 inch snow in Rome, Georgia in April and 18" in March of '93 just a few days after temps were in the 70's.  If the right ingredients get put into the oven, a snow cake will be the end result regardless of the month.

 

A great reminder and written in a way that only Tony can pull off.  While Larry is most certainly the resident sage of the SE forum, Tony would likely win in a landslide for "most unique way of stating things."  Could a book of "Tony-isms" be too far off?  The GaWx/dsaur combo certainly makes the SE forum the best!

Thanks, El K   Larry is the board sage, but all villages need an idiot, and that's where I come in If Monte Python can do it, then so can I!  I'm still looking for snow in summer...of course, it'll take another Maunder Minimum, but I don't mind waiting...if it's not past, say, 20 years

 As for grounding, in Ga., we just need to ask Cheeze when things look particularly exciting   T

[packbacker]

This is courtesy from the MA forum….promising…RaleighWx has stratospheric plots on his model site, the parallel shows some nice warming too. 

 

http://www.abc2news.com/weather/weather-blogs/a-major-split-in-the-polar-vortex

[El Kabong]

Thanks, El K   Larry is the board sage, but all villages need an idiot, and that's where I come in If Monte Python can do it, then so can I!  I'm still looking for snow in summer...of course, it'll take another Maunder Minimum, but I don't mind waiting...if it's not past, say, 20 years

 As for grounding, in Ga., we just need to ask Cheeze when things look particularly exciting   T

Tony, your posts are truly one of a kind and I always look forward to your unique spin on things.  Is Cheeze still around or have I just missed his posts?  You're right, Cheeze will be one of the first to rain on the parade, but it certainly keeps things balanced.  Every now and then though, the right pattern will setup and the atmosphere will smile upon the Deep South and even the nay-sayers will have to jump on board the storm train with us!  All it takes is one good storm and we'll remember it as a great winter.  Anything beyond that is gravy!

[BullCityWx]

This is courtesy from the MA forum….promising…RaleighWx has stratospheric plots on his model site, the parallel shows some nice warming too. 

 

http://www.abc2news.com/weather/weather-blogs/a-major-split-in-the-polar-vortex

 

Do we know if it'll even affect us yet? The SSW's are kind of a crap shoot, right?

[packbacker]

Do we know if it'll even affect us yet? The SSW's are kind of a crap shoot, right?

 

Not yet…but the key paragraph was this...

 

The location of the Stratospheric warming is KEY in figuring out where the polar vortex will be split and allowed to move south. If the warming event is located over Russia/China then its game on for MAJOR United States cold. However, if its over Canada then the polar air is favorable over the western US or central Atlantic Ocean.

[Cold Rain]

Is that one of those psychedelic mandrills, or some nondescript gray primate?  Makes a difference in long range predictions, and I'm not surprising anyone in saying how the long ranges haven't exactly sizzled.  Thing I always feel is that winter weather can come any time it's cold, and raining, it doesn't choose months, or ground temps, of sun angles.  If it wants to snow, it just snows, no matter what a model, or monkey butt says about it....but, that said, a mandrill with those vivid stripes would presage more than some some run of the mill primate would.  Tbone

 

Haha!  Nice.  It's going to be a cold and snowy winter, regardless of models, sun angles, cold angles or primate posteriors.

[BullCityWx]

Not yet…but the key paragraph was this...

 

The location of the Stratospheric warming is KEY in figuring out where the polar vortex will be split and allowed to move south. If the warming event is located over Russia/China then its game on for MAJOR United States cold. However, if its over Canada then the polar air is favorable over the western US or central Atlantic Ocean.

 

Cool, I learned something today. Thanks!

[Cold Rain]

In the New England thread, they have been talking about how the signals for a strat warming in the RIGHT place is looking good.  It's a good read, if anyone has time to visit their Winter thread.

[SnowNiner]

Not yet…but the key paragraph was this...

 

The location of the Stratospheric warming is KEY in figuring out where the polar vortex will be split and allowed to move south. If the warming event is located over Russia/China then its game on for MAJOR United States cold. However, if its over Canada then the polar air is favorable over the western US or central Atlantic Ocean.

 

This is the key to our winter I believe and worth keeping an eye on.  So our warming atmosphere goes, so goes our -AO/-NAO...and I think we need both. 

[GaWx]

Let's hope, we haven't had a -AO/-NAO since Dec 2010 and early Jan 2011 (4 years).

 

 Pack,

 You must mean during winters. Well, here's my take. Since 1949-50, there have been 22 of 65 DJF's with a predominant -NAO and -AO (34%). However, for El Nino winters, alone, there have been 11 of 21 -AO/-NAO or a good bit higher 52%. So, just having El Nino increases the chance quite a bit. Keep in mind that there hasn't been El Nino to help out since 2009-10. However, 2014-5 will have that -AO/-NAO help.

 

 Moreover, the 2014 SAI and OPI, two predictors of DJF AO, ended up at enormously impressive levels. That, alone, suggests that a solid -AO is very likely this winter. How likely is a solid -NAO when there is a solid -AO? Since 1949-50, there have been 31 winters with a solid -AO. Out of these 31 -AO winters, 22 also had a solid -NAO. Now, let's look at the nine solid -AO winters that didn't have a solid -NAO. Only one of those nine was during El Nino (2002-3)! So, what I'm saying is that with a solidly -AO El Nino highly likely this winter, a solid -NAO is highly likely this winter. Therefore, I'm confident that there will be a solid -AO and solid -NAO this DJF.

 

(When I say solid, I mean that two of the three of DJF must be negative and the three must average a good bit below 0 as opposed to barely below 0. For the AO, I look for an average of -0.50 or more negative. For the -NAO, I look for -0.25 or more negative.)

[packbacker]

 Pack,

 You must mean during winters. Well, here's my take. Since 1949-50, there have been 22 of 65 DJF's with a predominant -NAO and -AO (34%). However, for El Nino winters, alone, there have been 11 of 21 -AO/-NAO or a good bit higher 52%. So, just having El Nino increases the chance quite a bit. Keep in mind that there hasn't been El Nino to help out since 2009-10. However, 2014-5 will have that -AO/-NAO help.

 

 Moreover, the 2014 SAI and OPI, two predictors of DJF AO, ended up at enormously impressive levels. That, alone, suggests that a solid -AO is very likely this winter. How likely is a solid -NAO when there is a solid -AO? Since 1949-50, there have been 31 winters with a solid -AO. Out of these 31 -AO winters, 22 also had a solid -NAO. Now, let's look at the nine solid -AO winters that didn't have a solid -NAO. Only one of those nine was during El Nino (2002-3)! So, what I'm saying is that with a solidly -AO El Nino highly likely this winter, a solid -NAO is highly likely this winter. Therefore, I'm confident that there will be a solid -AO and solid -NAO this DJF.

 

(When I say solid, I mean that two of the three of DJF must be negative and the three must average a good bit below 0 as opposed to barely below 0. For the AO, I look for an average of -0.50 or more negative. For the -NAO, I look for -0.25 or more negative.)

 

Thanks Larry!  That's correct, I meant for winters (DJF).  Great stats, lets hope it comes through!

[griteater]

Do we know if it'll even affect us yet? The SSW's are kind of a crap shoot, right?

 

Many of the big -AO winters had SSWs and the hope is that the SAI/OPI/QBO/ENSO combo will lead to one this winter.  Early strat signals look good so far.  I certainly wouldn't follow Mike Masco for strat stuff though.  I would follow HM on Twitter @antmasiello and this - https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81567-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20142015/

[packbacker]

Many of the big -AO winters had SSWs and the hope is that the SAI/OPI/QBO/ENSO combo will lead to one this winter.  Early strat signals look good so far.  I certainly wouldn't follow Mike Masco for strat stuff though.  I would follow HM on Twitter @antmasiello and this - https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81567-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20142015/

 

Great site...Thanks grit!

[RONALD B]

In the New England thread, they have been talking about how the signals for a strat warming in the RIGHT place is looking good.  It's a good read, if anyone has time to visit their Winter thread.

yup ! strat warm looking good .

[Isopycnic]

yup ! strat warm looking good .

Hulk mad.

[Tacoma]

guys anything on the models yet for snow for wnc or surrounding areas around thanksgiving or after around dec. 1?

[Cold Rain]

guys anything on the models yet for snow for wnc or surrounding areas around thanksgiving or after around dec. 1?

Really, fritch?

[JoshM]

guys anything on the models yet for snow for wnc or surrounding areas around thanksgiving or after around dec. 1?

[Met1985]

In the New England thread, they have been talking about how the signals for a strat warming in the RIGHT place is looking good.  It's a good read, if anyone has time to visit their Winter thread.

Yeah The mets in that forum have been covering the Stat warming really well. Coastalwx made a great post yesterday about it.

[Tacoma]

Really, fritch?

well worth a try.  we've already seen two small snow systems for the mtns.

[buckeyefan1]

Holy crap ballz    It looks like some people thought they were posting in the banter thread    

 

Consider this a friendly reminder to keep the discussion on track and the banter where it belongs.  

[pcbjr]

 Robert's scroll banner on WxSouth (encouraging):

 

Reinforcing cold hits late week, then big Texas Storm. After that, Jet sags more and more, and Major Alaska blocking resumes..Turns cold , AGAIN! Another Set of Big Highs come down late Month. Models don't recognize Pattern, And Then Correct Themselves to Synoptics, Which will turn Extremely Wintery Soon....

[griteater]

Ventrice (WSI) is going warmer than normal for first 3 weeks of Dec, then colder - http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/sub-seasonal-u-s-temperature-outlook-through-mid-december/

 

HEADLINES:

• Massive Indian Ocean MJO event on the horizon; Favors warmer than average weather to begin December.
• Evolving signal that suggest another period of increased arctic air mass intrusions across the U.S. and higher than average U.S. heating demand during the latter half of the month.
• ECMWF Weeklies could be suffering from snow-cover feedback issues during Weeks 3 & 4.
• Primary Weather Drivers: Tropical Convection (i.e., the Madden Julian Oscillation)

[packbacker]

Ventrice (WSI) is going warmer than normal for first 3 weeks of Dec, then colder - http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/sub-seasonal-u-s-temperature-outlook-through-mid-december/

HEADLINES:

• Massive Indian Ocean MJO event on the horizon; Favors warmer than average weather to begin December.

• Evolving signal that suggest another period of increased arctic air mass intrusions across the U.S. and higher than average U.S. heating demand during the latter half of the month.

• ECMWF Weeklies could be suffering from snow-cover feedback issues during Weeks 3 & 4.

• Primary Weather Drivers: Tropical Convection (i.e., the Madden Julian Oscillation)

Thanks Grit! Interesting...the wall to wall winter was always hopeful but never likely. Hard to get extremes that last that long. This is good if this does flip end of Dec.

Edit: If Dec finishes +3 going to be hard to have DJF to average a solid neg departure.