Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

[LithiaWx]

It's back, the epic medium/long range winter discussion thread.  This winter has nearly unanimously been touted as one to remember.  Everyone in the know, our favorite and not so favorite forecasters all seem to see signs that point to a blockbuster winter.  Let's hope it delivers as advertised.   Else some folks have some 'splainin to do.

Here is to an epic winter that we will all remember for decades to come!!!

 

Courtesy of Brett Anderson here is his interpretation of the Euro weeklies for the first week of December : (Looks like an El Nino signature to me)

 

 

 

 

From the usually conservative and usually playing catchup CPC :

 

 

[buckeyefan1]

I've been waiting for this thread   

[dsaur]

Super thread, super thread!!  All I want for Xmas, dear Michelle, is a super long, hundreds of pages super thread.  None of this little piddling threat to threat stuff, and let's name the cute little things, lol, so we can tell them apart..... but a winter to end all winters super thread careening from threat to threat like the ice age is upon us.  T

[Amos83]

+1 it is fitting, in a way, that Marietta is the one to get this thread going.

[packbacker]

It's a little ominous that Marietta started this thread... ...so let's see where it gets us.

 

I believe this is the first time 3.4 reading has been over 1.0 since Feb 2010.

[packbacker]

UKmet seasonal is out...the DJF looked neutral for temps but JFM looks cold, so thinking Dec is warm on the UK.  I am sure JB is going to be touting this today.  I think the Euro seasonal is giving him headaches.

[Cold Rain]

That's not bad...kinda goes along with the colder second act idea. Strongest signal is over the TN valley as usual. But the precip signal ought to make the Shetley Desert perk up.

Edit: The strongest negative departures are over a small area of the upper Midwest. The general center of the area is approximately over the TN valley.

[packbacker]

That's not bad...kinda goes along with the colder second act idea. Strongest signal is over the TN valley as usual. But the precip signal ought to make the Shetley Desert perk up.

 

The warmth over/south of Greenland I would imagine is a great sign.

[Kory]

It's a little ominous that Marietta started this thread... ...so let's see where it gets us.

I believe this is the first time 3.4 reading has been over 1.0 since Feb 2010.

I believe we should continue to see the Nino regions rise in temp. The equatorial Kelvin wave continues to surface and will continue for at least the next several weeks. I don't see much reinforcement for the current Kelvin wave as neutral anomalies are building in the West Pac.

[Cold Rain]

The warmth over/south of Greenland I would imagine is a great sign.

Yes, exactly. Also, New England shows AN...not sure I buy that very much.

[packbacker]

Yes, exactly. Also, New England shows AN...not sure I buy that very much.

 

I think it's expected for NE to be above normal in Nino/strong blocking, like 2010.  They don't have to be below normal to get above normal snow like us.

[Kory]

Here's the subsurface plot link. See the neutral anomalies in the West Pac.

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/plots/gif/Dep_Sec_EQ_5d.gif

[Cold Rain]

^ Yeah ok, I guess. I do like where the blocking is showing up. Definitely a good signal for the SE.

[packbacker]

Here's the subsurface plot link. See the neutral anomalies in the West Pac.

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/plots/gif/Dep_Sec_EQ_5d.gif

 

Ah, and there are some very warm anomalies in the central pac.

[Kory]

Ah, and there are some very warm anomalies in the central pac.

Yeah that's a heck of a subsurface warm pool. So I do expect the surface anomalies to keep rising at least in the short term.

[packbacker]

Yeah that's a heck of a subsurface warm pool. So I do expect the surface anomalies to keep rising at least in the short term.

 

Thanks!  Good to see the continued warming is possible.

[griteater]

It's like Nino 3.4 got mad when NOAA downgraded the nino chances the other day.  I think the weak el nino ideas are on track here

[Snowless in Carrollton]

I think it's expected for NE to be above normal in Nino/strong blocking, like 2010.  They don't have to be below normal to get above normal snow like us.

I don't think we have to be below normal to have above normal snow either. We had a ton of snow in 2001-02 and that winter was above normal in terms of temps right ?

[Cold Rain]

I don't think we have to be below normal to have above normal snow either. We had a ton of snow in 2001-02 and that winter was above normal in terms of temps right ?

 

Guess it depends on how literal you're talking...I don't know what their normal temps are, but down this way, normal is generally above freezing.  Not gonna get much snowfall above freezing.  That's if you're talking a specific event, though.

 

From a general standpoint, maybe normal to slightly below conditions are conducive to snowfall in the NE.  For us, we would do better to have much below normal temps for a persistent period to maximize our snowfall chances.  That's harder to sustain.

[LithiaWx]

Ah, and there are some very warm anomalies in the central pac.

 

It usually takes 2-3 weeks for warm pools to propagate upwards, if I remember correctly.

[packbacker]

I don't think we have to be below normal to have above normal snow either. We had a ton of snow in 2001-02 and that winter was above normal in terms of temps right ?

Agreed, we can get lucky in warm winters (2000, 2002) but there are many more winters that are warm and below avg snowfall.

[packbacker]

It's like Nino 3.4 got mad when NOAA downgraded the nino chances the other day.  I think the weak el nino ideas are on track here

Lol, I wonder if they knew this big a spike was coming.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

All of this cold in November has me confused because from what I've been reading and hearing, the early part of winter will likely be mild followed by colder weather in mid to late winter. Has that thinking changed and now the early part of winter will be the coldest, similar to December 2010 ?

[machetemoonlight]

Jan & Feb 2010 were cold months around here.

[machetemoonlight]

Not according to noaa's NOWdata graphs for your city.. Jan and Feb 2010 were colder than Dec 2009 by a wide margin.. are you just going by memory?

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Not according to noaa's NOWdata graphs for your city.. Jan and Feb 2010 were colder than Dec 2009 by a wide margin.. are you just going by memory?

you are right actually . Maybe it was Florida I was thinking of that had such large departures from normal in December 2009

Edit: I just realized I had my years mixed up. December 2010 was the coldest month in the winter of 2010-11

December 2010 was 12 degrees colder than February 2011. I wonder if we could see something similar this winter.

[Cold Rain]

All of this cold in November has me confused because from what I've been reading and hearing, the early part of winter will likely be mild followed by colder weather in mid to late winter. Has that thinking changed and now the early part of winter will be the coldest, similar to December 2009 ?

 

Standard El Nino climo.

 

However, according to former poster GaWx, a cold November, following a warm October with the 3rd highest SAI and 2nd highest SCE, alongside a building weak Modoki El Nino, with a negative and rising QBO, a +PDO with an OPI of -2 or lower, and a -AO October/November couplet under a warming eastern Siberian stratosphere during a weak solar max, has a strong correlation for below normal temps during DJF...for Atlanta anyways.

 

I may have a slight detail wrong, but that's the gist of it, I think.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Standard El Nino climo.

However, according to former poster GaWx, a cold November, following a warm October with the 3rd highest SAI and 2nd highest SCE, alongside a building weak Modoki El Nino, with a negative and rising QBO, a +PDO with an OPI of -2 or lower, and a -AO October/November couplet under a warming eastern Siberian stratosphere during a weak solar max, has a strong correlation for below normal temps during DJF...for Atlanta anyways.

I may have a slight detail wrong, but that's the gist of it, I think.

you may not know the answer to this, but is it common to have cold November's during an el Nino ?

[Cold Rain]

you may not know the answer to this, but is it common to have cold November's during an el Nino ?

 

Nope, I don't know.  I would guess not, but I don't know for sure.

 

Either way, I wouldn't worry about it.  I don't think it means a mild front-end winter.  Larry's research didn't show that.

[LithiaWx]

Nope, I don't know.  I would guess not, but I don't know for sure.

 

Either way, I wouldn't worry about it.  I don't think it means a mild front-end winter.  Larry's research didn't show that.

 

12Z Euro already showing hints the Alaska ridge is just a 10-14 day event. Aleutians low trying to nudge east over the rest of the state by Day 15. That would also allow weak troughing on the West Coast under any West Canada ridge. I don't think cold will lock in through all of November. Might be a break around Thanksgiving. Nino years sometimes have a mild December before going colder than normal again Jan/Feb. But that may be getting ahead of this thread.

 

Can't imagine any meaningful snow in this cold pattern, outside of the mountains and maybe Plateau. Cold fronts will charge through too fast with little chance of a low press wave. This early in the season low press would just stall the cold air keeping lower elevations rain. Be patient though. It is not even calendar or meteorological winter yet.

 

This is a met I quoted.  He says Nino years have the marker of a warm December at times.  I don't believe he is predicting that from this quote but something to consider.  He also says warm Decembers can flip to a cold Jan-Feb in Nino years.