TeleConnectSnow Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Whether or not it hits us as rain/sleet/snow/rocks, there will most likely be a storm on the horizon. Wanted to start this discussion to get us all in the winter mode and get our talk about this topic only. 00z GFS-P comes in with a powderkeg with the low tucking into the coast and cranking out. POST aWAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 Nor'Easter according to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 CCB Action for some of you guys. Unfortunately this is going to change. But this timeframe is really one to watch for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 0z Parallel GFS bombs out the midweek storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 BTW this is my first year with paid maps...am I allowed to post any of the content? If not I will take this image down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 BTW this is my first year with paid maps...am I allowed to post any of the content? If not I will take this image down. Nope, not allowed. Just post maps from free sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 Nope, not allowed. Just post maps from free sites. Ok thank you very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 I'm just gonna wait until this gets under 4 days before taking it seriously but could be legit for areas well inland. If it does bomb out like the parallel Gfs then even the coast would end as some snow next Saturday. Let the colder air get here before we start even remotely discussing snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 8, 2014 Author Share Posted November 8, 2014 I'm just gonna wait until this gets under 4 days before taking it seriously but could be legit for areas well inland. If it does bomb out like the parallel Gfs then even the coast would end as some snow next Saturday. Let the colder air get here before we start even remotely discussing snow chances. Speaking of Cold, just went to 31.8 here in west chester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 I'm just gonna wait until this gets under 4 days before taking it seriously but could be legit for areas well inland. If it does bomb out like the parallel Gfs then even the coast would end as some snow next Saturday. Let the colder air get here before we start even remotely discussing snow chances. I beg to differ. If the Parallel GFS is right which is unlikely, this would be a full blown nor'easter with heavy snow even for NYC. Just cold enough for snow. I have two words for you "dynamic cooling" would take effect! Resulting heavy snow and dropping temperatures below freezing especially if it comes in next Friday night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 00z EURO 500mb looks good, but can't tell if precip falls after the cold front clears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Wayyyy too early to take this threat seriously. Its a threat and nothing more at this point. Monday/tuesday we will have a better idea of what will happen with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 0z Parallel GFS bombs out the midweek storm Mt holly NWS is cutting wood for a storm. talks maybe snow and the parallel GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 I don't see the support for a coastal storm bombing close by. I don't see how this won't end up weaker and well offshore right now. Perhaps the more legit threat is the one after it although early signs show it could be too warm if not cut a bit inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Mt holly NWS is cutting wood for a storm. talks maybe snow and the parallel GFS.. 6z DGEX is really close to the coast. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/dgexloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 I don't see the support for a coastal storm bombing close by. I don't see how this won't end up weaker and well offshore right now. Perhaps the more legit threat is the one after it although early signs show it could be too warm if not cut a bit inland. At this stage any prediction is really pure speculation unless someone here has a crystal ball they are using that can see what exactly happens next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 6z DGEX is really close to the coast. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/dgexloop.html Pattern is ripe for a powder keg storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 let's get within 120 hours before a thread in the future please. It got so bad last winter that the mods starting locking threads like this until we got closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 let's get within 120 hours before a thread in the future please. It got so bad last winter that the mods starting locking threads like this until we got closer. Yeah I would not be over enthusiastic about this outside of the higher elevations and usual money locations, especially in Mid November. You end up just draining yourself in the long-haul and wasting time watching fantasy runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 let's get within 120 hours before a thread in the future please. It got so bad last winter that the mods starting locking threads like this until we got closer.Agreed, outside of 6 days this can be discussed in the monthly discussion thread. Once inside of D-5 then you could start a thread regarding a potential threat. Had this been created monday it would've been fine but friday? For next saturday? Wayyyy too soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 loop the big picture http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/polar/index.php?type=polar-ir-24 the result http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/P_96hr500bw.gif enhanced for clarity less balk..... more insight!!!!! The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Yeah I would not be over enthusiastic about this outside of the higher elevations and usual money locations, especially in Mid November. You end up just draining yourself in the long-haul and wasting time watching fantasy runs. Of course you will always be on the right side saying no stormstorm in the middle of november. But the setup is very promising, so it isn't as if the suggestion is totally off the wall. That is a legitimate cold air mass for this time of the year, and some signs of blocking. Still a long way to go, but I can see why this time period has piqued people's interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Of course you will always be on the right side saying no stormstorm in the middle of november. But the setup is very promising, so it isn't as if the suggestion is totally off the wall. That is a legitimate cold air mass for this time of the year, and some signs of blocking. Still a long way to go, but I can see why this time period has piqued people's interest. Not relevant really but it don't matter down here, it's so rare that I know it won't happen in my backyard. We need more than the -EPO. It's just run-of-mill cold, the meat of the polar air has remained in the medium to long range. Over the years, i've noticed how fast things can flip. Just like in 2011 people were freaking out over the Halloween snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 GFS is weak and OTS, both versions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 GFS is weak and OTS, both versions Storm Cancel? 12z EURO should be telling? its the GFS toss it?.....oops sorry just bringing up the popular sayings in our storm threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 The 12z GFS Parallel is OTS. The trough doesn't go negative over Ohio as the 0z run had it. It was an outlier. I'm not really impressed so far with the new GFS. Seems just as inconsistent as the old GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Storm Cancel? 12z EURO should be telling? its the GFS toss it?.....oops sorry just bringing up the popular sayings in our storm threads You forgot, "GFS is just where we want it at this timeframe"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Not relevant really but it don't matter down here, it's so rare that I know it won't happen in my backyard. We need more than the -EPO. It's just run-of-mill cold, the meat of the polar air has remained in the medium to long range. Over the years, i've noticed how fast things can flip. Just like in 2011 people were freaking out over the Halloween snowstorm. Cape May is rough for snow for the most part, i'm not going to deny that (although not last year if memory serves me correct). I can't agree that the upcoming cold is run of the mill for this time of the year, 15/20 degrees below normal for this time of year is significant. Also, while anything can happen, this is a very different situation and a much more promising setup as we head into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Perhaps too cold GD0815, as this has caused suppression in the latest runs. I think this is either amped up into a colder rain or OTS. On parallel GFS, nobody wins for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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