J.Spin Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.01" L.E. Today's observations for the current event are below; I probably could have gotten measurable liquid out of that second round if I'd cored it sooner, but it's definitely sublimating and only averaged 0.004" out of three stacked cores by the time I checked it, so it goes down as a trace. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 9.1 F Sky: Light Snow/Flurries Snow at the stake: 1.0" Details from the 2:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 22.3 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 1.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 Yeah, I noticed that when you had posted your numbers before; that's probably an arrangement that won't happen too often. The numbers here are Nov 22.2"/Dec 24.9", so December did end out on top by a bit. When December and November come in close like that, it's almost guaranteed to be December's fault – I don’t have any Novembers in my records up near the typical 40" December numbers, and I suspect a 40" November would be tough to do down here in the valley. Seasonal snowfall is a few inches behind average here now with the somewhat cold & clear setup we've had the past few days, but hopefully this next stretch will help to keep things somewhat on pace. Yeah a few lucky snowfalls during those lake effect streamers in November really helped...like 3.5" and 2.5" type snowfalls has me running better than normal relative to like your numbers. I'm always behind you by this point in the year, haha, but with the lack of larger upslope events that favor your area, I've been able to hang in there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Some cool Lake Champlain effect snow this morning for those interested in mesoscale stuff: https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=789552861116617 We got a good 1-2" at Lincoln peak. Certainly freshened things up. Fine dust. Didn't do much for the ungroomed terrain. A mess Saturday night might be just what the doctor ordered. Happy new year everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Had good hike up to Hermit Lake shelter. 12F at visitors center and around 0F at the shelter. Cold, breezy, light snow but quite a few folks out. Still lots of snow up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 As we saw from reports in the thread this morning, there were various appetizer snows starting today, but we're getting close on this next event that PF mentioned, and the BTV NWS forecast discussion shared some thoughts: BY FRIDAY EARLY MORNING A SURFACE FRONT WILL BEGIN DRIFTING SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY AND IT WILL COLLECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AND PUSH IT SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE LAKES AND THE SURFACE FORCING FROM THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SYNOPTIC SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY DURING THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL LIKELY SEE ENHANCED SNOW FALL AND I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF JAY PEAK ETC SAW A FOOT OF SNOW WITH THE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH. Perhaps they're thinking of something similar to those two episodes that hit us back around November 20th during the big lake-effect period? It's always appreciated when the lakes inject an extra shot of moisture this way; combining lake-effect with upslope can lead to some good stuff as we saw last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 BTV discussion notes the potential for mountain snows on Thurs/Friday... "The combination of the moisture in the low levels from the lakes and the surface forcing from the front will allow for a chance of synoptic snow showers across most of the north country on Friday during the day and early evening. The higher terrain will like see enhanced snow fall and I wouldn't be surprised if Jay Peak et cetera saw a foot of snow with the front dropping south. &&" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 This is worth posting too... Great AFD as usual from TABER on the weekend system: && Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/... as of 250 PM EST Wednesday...an active days 4 through 7 expected across the north country...with two precipitation events anticipated. Saturday will feature surface high pressure shifting into northern New England and clouds increasing during the afternoon hours. The calm before the storm with temperatures after a very chilly start warming into the 20s. First system arrives late Sat night into Sunday...with snow changing to a wintry mix...then to drizzle/freezing drizzle...before ending as some light mountain snow showers. This event looks like advisory type snowfall in the valleys and low end warning in the favorable southeast upslope regions of the dacks/Green Mountains All models in good agreement with potent short wave energy ejecting from middle/upper level trough across the inter mountain west on Friday with surface low pressure developing over the MS valley. This surface low will race NE into the Ohio Valley...then up the slv on Sunday...placing our County Warning Area in the warm sector. GFS/ECMWF/Gem initially show thermal profiles cold enough to support a burst of snow Sat night into Sunday morning...associated with strong 850 to 700mb fgen forcing...favorable deep layer moisture profiles (pw values between 0.65 to 0... strong upward vertical velocities associated dual couplet of 850 mb jet of 55 to 65 knots and rrq of 25h jet across southern Canada. These favorable dynamics and moisture quickly lift from SW to NE across our County Warning Area between 06z-12z Sunday...with a period of moderate snow expected. Also...given such strong low level wind fields...expecting some shadowing of precipitation/snowfall with lighter amounts across the western slopes/cpv and parts of the nek...with higher quantitative precipitation forecast/snowfall in the favorable southeast orographic upslope regions of the central Green Mountains and eastern dacks. Initial accumulations given track/quick movement and thermal profiles supports 1 to 4 inches cpv/nek downslope regions to 4 to 8 inches eastern dacks/southeast upslope regions of the Green Mountains from Ludlow to Sugarbush to Stowe to Jay Peak...with some light ice accumulation possible on Sunday morning. Low level 850 mb jet will quickly push very warm air into our region with prognosticated temperatures at 850 mb near +6c by 18z Sunday...and the 1000 to 500mb 540dm line well north of our County Warning Area...resulting in snow changing to a wintry mix...then to rain/drizzle by 15z Sunday. Current forecast has this transition handled very well in grids and will keep current thinking. Given the fast southwest follow aloft...system will be very progressive with impacts only lasting 6 to 12 hours...and middle/upper level dry slot quickly racing from SW to NE across our County Warning Area on Sunday. This dry slot will result in steadier/heavier precipitation...switching to a drizzle...with pockets of freezing drizzle possible between 1000 and 2000 feet per latest GFS sounding. Temperatures Saturday night will start cold...especially east of The Greens where low level cold air will be trapped...but will quickly warm toward middle night with increasing southerly follow and precipitation developing. Will try to show this trend in hrly temperature grids. Temperatures on Sunday will be extremely tricking and highly depend upon amount of mixing. Have noted near 7c at 950mb off the GFS sounding for btv...which would support middle/upper 40s...maybe near 50f. Otherwise...colder/protected valleys will stay mainly in the middle/upper 30s on Sunday. Bottom line expect a large range in surface temperatures depending upon elevation/location from western dacks/slv to nek/lower CT River Valley. Surface cold front sweeps quickly across our County Warning Area late Sunday into Monday with strong low level cold air advection. However...deep layer moisture is north of our County Warning Area...so even with favorable backside northwest upslope follow...qpf/snowfall will be light...given the lack of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Borrowing dendrite's format (again): December 2014 Averages/TotalsMax 31.65°F (+0.85°F)Min 18.39°F (+5.34°F)Mean 25.02F (+3.09°F) 6th mildest of 17. The avg diurnal range of 13.26F is the lowest, by 1.78F, for any month in my records.Precip 6.46" +2.04" Snow 17.7" -1.9" SnowDD 250 3rd most for Dec, behind 2003 and 2007. ExtremesHigh Max 46°F (1st)Low Min -12°F (8th)Low Max 12°F (8th)High Min 32°F (24th, 25th)Max Rain 1.60" (10th) Max Snow 7.5" (13th) Max Snowstorm 7.5" (13th) Max Depth 14" (13th)Some notes on the year of 2014: Average temp of 40.13F was 2nd coolest. (2007: 39.99) Average maxima of 50.76F was coolest. (2009: 51.04) Total precip of 51.96" was +1.94" and 5th highest. Largest one-day: 1.94" on Aug 14. Largest precip event: 2.75" on Dec 9-11. Largest snowstorm: 13.5" on March 12-13. Greatest snowdepth: 43" on March 20. (That was at 9 PM. My 7 AM obs for cocorahs was 46".) 13 days with thunder were 2.6 below avg, and we omly had thunder in 3 months (May 1; July 8; Aug 4) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Yeah a few lucky snowfalls during those lake effect streamers in November really helped...like 3.5" and 2.5" type snowfalls has me running better than normal relative to like your numbers. I'm always behind you by this point in the year, haha, but with the lack of larger upslope events that favor your area, I've been able to hang in there . Yeah, that's awesome though, it's kind of nice to get some of those surprises and witness some of the other mechanisms the Northern Greens have for getting snow. Even though things are basically running around average now (about half a foot behind at our site as of today), and my numbers are actually only a couple inches ahead of last season, hopefully there's not another January with 30-40% of average snowfall on the way. After the way the past few seasons have gone relative to average, it's nice to see the VT sites doing well: What's neat about the VT sites on that list is that they're covering some disparate areas, like the NEK, southern Champlain Valley, and Northern Greens spine/east slope, so all those areas are doing OK in a relative sense. Presumably Orwell is well ahead of average on snowfall as I think you guys were discussing a while back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 After finalizing with yesterday morning's data, totals for December here came in at 24.9" snow/4.89" L.E., and for the accumulating snowfall season that began on 11/6 this time around, the numbers are 47.1" snow/7.91" L.E. Based on my data set, December snowfall was 61.3% of average, and season snowfall is running at 89.2% of average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 A surprise 2.5" on the 3000ft snowboard. Pure dust haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 A surprise 2.5" on the 3000ft snowboard. Pure dust haha. Today's new snow didn't do much to the conditions as it was low density stuff, but cosmetically it went a long way towards whitening up the evergreens and bringing back that nice wintery look of snow on the trees. Looks like winter again up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 A surprise 2.5" on the 3000ft snowboard. Pure dust haha. Pure dust that skied really well for my first day back on the flying sofas. Pretty interesting front dynamics tonight. Certainly possible there is some hook up with the flow off the lakes and the Northern Greens gets a surprising 6+ tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 Yeah, that's awesome though, it's kind of nice to get some of those surprises and witness some of the other mechanisms the Northern Greens have for getting snow. Even though things are basically running around average now (about half a foot behind at our site as of today), and my numbers are actually only a couple inches ahead of last season, hopefully there's not another January with 30-40% of average snowfall on the way. After the way the past few seasons have gone relative to average, it's nice to see the VT sites doing well: What's neat about the VT sites on that list is that they're covering some disparate areas, like the NEK, southern Champlain Valley, and Northern Greens spine/east slope, so all those areas are doing OK in a relative sense. Presumably Orwell is well ahead of average on snowfall as I think you guys were discussing a while back. That is a great point and fun to see... the VT sites at the top of the list span all the different areas. Champlain Valley to the NEK. While here in the mountains we are losing ground to climo every day now that it doesn't snow, the Champlain Valley still has to be a bit above normal...but not quite the same as ApacheTrout having 40" by mid-December. That's a very solid total for the CPV for that time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 Pure dust that skied really well for my first day back on the flying sofas. Pretty interesting front dynamics tonight. Certainly possible there is some hook up with the flow off the lakes and the Northern Greens gets a surprising 6+ tonight. Tomorrow morning has my attention with the front. The radar though has been showing moisture working into the mountains this evening, and it was snowing lightly but steadily at the end of the day up there. Who knows, but I'm thinking just an inch or so overnight. Could see where its sneaky above 3,000ft with slightly more saturated air...one of those things where its like 0.75" at the base in real dry air, but like 3-4" up at 3,000ft+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 PF how does Waterbury do better than your condo? Is it because you are further east of Mansfield as compared to Waterbury and the mtns just west of them? That's awesome you have 48" even at Stowe village. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2015 Author Share Posted January 2, 2015 PF how does Waterbury do better than your condo? Is it because you are further east of Mansfield as compared to Waterbury and the mtns just west of them? That's awesome you have 48" even at Stowe village. Its on a more localized scale than just towns... parts of Stowe get more snow than parts of Waterbury, and parts of Waterbury get more snow than parts of Stowe, lol. Its hard to really illustrate how localized the differences can be in this area...but you saw it in that event earlier in December where it was raining in one area, and snowing significantly 2 miles down the road in another area of Stowe. Its not even elevation dependent at times, and yearly precip amounts aren't as much tied to elevation but more actual location in respect to the Spine axis. The town of Stowe goes from the 3,000+ (peak of 3,600ft) ridgeline of the Worecester Range to the east, to the 4,000ft ridgeline of Mansfield in the west. So there can be some highly variable snowfall amounts across town depending on slight meso-scale and wind differences. Waterbury mirrors Stowe to the south, and can also have highly variable snowfall from west to east. J.Spin is on the actual Spine axis and averages a few more inches of annual liquid than my location. On this map below, the red dots include the Mountain Operations office (west red dot) and where I actually reside. The blue represents J.Spin's location in the west, and the center of Waterbury to the east. There can be a significant differences in orographic events depending on the Froude number. Blocked flow and low froude can really cut off the precip on the east side, so much so that its snowing at the Mtn Ops office and J.Spin's house, but the sun is out at my house and in the center of Waterbury. The biggest differences in the seasonal totals generally occur during those events, especially with J.Spin's location being a localized convergence zone in the Winooski Valley through the mountains, including the Bolton Flats. West winds and blocked flow can really squeeze out the moisture there as the moisture gets squeezed between the mountains. Anyway.... haha sorry that was so wordy... at home in the village we are hanging on to 3" of crusty snowpack. This stuff is rock hard and you could probably drive a car over it without sinking into it, lol. I think the upcoming pattern has good potential, but also risky with cutters a real possibility. The cold will be impressive regardless. Photo of the neighboring condos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2015 Author Share Posted January 2, 2015 Mansfield Coop comes in with a 3" increase in depth but only a Trace of new snow. I had 2.5" on the snow board... looks like a board was a better measuring device than the wind-swept rain gauge for measuring snow today. DAILY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 603 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014 STATION PRECIP TEMPERATURE PRESENT SNOW 24 HRS MAX MIN CUR WEATHER NEW TOTAL SWE ...VERMONT... MOUNT MANSFIELD 0.02 4 -5 1 T 29 DAILY HYDROMEOROLOGICAL DATA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 552 PM EST THU JAN 1 2015 STATION PRECIP TEMPERATURE PRESENT SNOW 24 HRS MAX MIN CUR WEATHER NEW TOTAL SWE ...VERMONT... MOUNT MANSFIELD T 8 0 8 T 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Very nice explanation. I figured it was the valley convergence thing as well as being closer to the Spine there. But he's below 500' so wasn't sure if that mattered...not too much I guess. I do enjoy little mesoscale nuances like that because they can always surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2015 Author Share Posted January 2, 2015 Haven't seen the persistent flurry regime in a while. Seems like we have some moisture in the area for the next 18 hours so we'll see if we can accumulate anything noteworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 J.Spin is on the actual Spine axis and averages a few more inches of annual liquid than my location. On this map below, the red dots include the Mountain Operations office (west red dot) and where I actually reside. The blue represents J.Spin's location in the west, and the center of Waterbury to the east. There can be a significant differences in orographic events depending on the Froude number. Blocked flow and low froude can really cut off the precip on the east side, so much so that its snowing at the Mtn Ops office and J.Spin's house, but the sun is out at my house and in the center of Waterbury. The biggest differences in the seasonal totals generally occur during those events, especially with J.Spin's location being a localized convergence zone in the Winooski Valley through the mountains, including the Bolton Flats. West winds and blocked flow can really squeeze out the moisture there as the moisture gets squeezed between the mountains. Following up on PFs comments from above, I created an image in Google Earth looking through the Green Mountain Spine at the point of the Winooski Valley: With respect to PFs overhead map from the quoted text, the Google Earth image here would be looking eastward from a vantage point near/southwest of the Richmond area. My location is around where the "y" is in Winooski Valley, and you can see the center of Waterbury roughly 2 to 3 miles behind that point. Our place is only at an elevation of ~500', which is ~200'-300' lower than PF's place as I recall, but in terms of snowfall, the elevation difference appears to be more than made up for by the fact that we're much more in line with the axis of the spine of the Greens. This means that our area can get in on upslope precipitation in just about any storm with flow from the east or west. The Stowe Village (and likewise Waterbury Village) areas to the east of the spine cash in if the flow is from the east, or when flow from the west or northwest occurs with appropriately high Froude Numbers, but our area along the spine gets an added boost in snowfall by getting in on flow from the west with somewhat lower Froude Numbers as well. These are the types of events where the Western Slopes (areas in the foreground of the Google Earth image) are getting bombed, but the moisture is not making it over the spine very well. As you can see in the image, the air flowing from the west can try to squeeze through the Winooski Valley, as it is a prominent gap in the wall of the Greens. But, the air gets funneled in there, and this presumably creates the area of convergence and gives the location an additional boost in precipitation/snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yeah nice image Jspin. Makes sense. Pretty awesome mesoscale phenomenon. You have a good spot there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Be curious to hear what the groomer reports are because the 'dar says it's dumping along the spine right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2015 Author Share Posted January 2, 2015 Be curious to hear what the groomer reports are because the 'dar says it's dumping along the spine right now. Will let ya know, but nothing more than a dusting in town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Will let ya know, but nothing more than a dusting in town. BML 1/2SM right now, that's usually a good sign for John up in Pittsburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2015 Author Share Posted January 2, 2015 Dumping out up at the mountain...2.5" at 1500ft at 530am, but couldn't have been snowing like tis for long because it's 1"/hr pace right now. Really not much happening in town though. Last 1 mile of my drive was pretty much whiteout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2015 Author Share Posted January 2, 2015 Good pulses of snow moving over the Mountain right now on the county line. Sweet snowy morning out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2015 Author Share Posted January 2, 2015 An inch more fell between 5:30-6:30am at the base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 About 2" here at the house. Pure blower. Happy days are here again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 About an inch at home, looks like a little less than an inch here at work in Montpelier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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